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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of a Variable-Aperture Full-Ring SPECT System using Large-Area Pixelated CZT Modules: A Simulation Study for Brain SPECT Applications

Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) scanner using cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) offers improved imaging capability over conventional NaI (Tl)-based SPECT scanner. We aim to demonstrate a full-ring SPECT system design with eight large-area CZT detectors that can be used for a broad spectrum of SPECT radiopharmaceuticals and provides higher sensitivity and better spatial resolution than those of conventional NaI (Tl)-based gamma cameras. A newly-designed full-ring SPECT system is composed of 8 large-area CZT cameras (128 mm × 179.2 mm effective area) that can be independently swiveled around their own axes of rotation independently and can have radial motion for varying aperture sizes that can be adapted to different sizes of imaging volume. Extended projection data were generated by conjoining projections of two adjacent detectors to overcome the limited field-of-view (FOV) by each CZT camera. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluated this new system design with digital phantoms including a Derenzo hot-rod phantom and a Zubal brain phantom. Comparison of performance metrics such as spatial resolution, sensitivity, contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), and contrast-recovery ratio were made between our design and a conventional SPECT scanner. The proposed scanner could result in up to about 3 times faster in acquisition time over conventional scan time at same acquisition time per step. The spatial resolution of our proposed scanner was similar or better to that of the conventional scanner, and there was significant performance improvement over the conventional scanner particularly in sensitivity (approximately 4 times). Overall, we successfully reconstructed the phantom image for both 99 mTc-based perfusion and 123 I-based dopamine transporter (DaT) brain studies simulated for our new design. In particular, the striatal/background contrast-recovery ratio in 3-to-1 reference ratio was over the 0.8 for the 123 I-based DaT study. In conclusion, we demonstrated the potential of our new full-ring CZT SPECT design, showing improved performance metrics such as improved system sensitivity and CNR while maintaining other important imaging parameters such as spatial resolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A thermodynamic evaluation of metal halides for the recrystallization of Cu(In,Ga)Se 2

CdTe films are deposited at low temperatures and recrystallized to photovoltaic device quality using CdCl 2 treatments, leading to competitive manufacturing costs. Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 (CIGS) typically requires high-temperature, low-rate depositions to produce high-efficiency devices, resulting in higher costs. A similar metal halide treatment of CIGS has been demonstrated by us previously for some metal halide sources. To understand and optimize the process, a thermodynamic evaluation of candidate metal halides for such treatments is presented as a guide for their selection. By comparing bond dissociation energies, mono- and di-halide compounds are proposed to be ideal compounds to act as transport agents. Known recrystallization and temperature reduction benefits by Ag alloying suggests that Ag-halides should be used to aid transport of all species. The high vapor pressure and mobility of Ga compounds still poses a problem for metal halide treatment resulting in Ga etching and removal of intentional Ga gradients. Less severe but similar issues with In compounds may occur. As a result, Cu compounds have low vapor pressures which may limit transport, however, Cu is highly mobile in CIGS and recrystallization still occurs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of bifacial module technologies with combined–accelerated stress testing

In view of the increasing interest and market share of bifacial cells and modules, suitable substrates such as glass and transparent backsheets along with ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyolefin elastomer (POE) encapsulants were examined in combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to evaluate and compare degradation modes. Testing with both monofacial and bifacial cells, we found glass-glass modules with monofacial cells led to greater grid finger breakage than those with polymeric backsheets. Furthermore, this is attributed to previous X-ray topography and modeling work showing higher stress in cells and interconnections in glass-glass modules than glass-backsheet modules. Consistent with the objectives of C-AST, which stresses modules at levels corresponding to the limits seen in the natural environment, we observed the UV-fluorescence signatures of modules tested in C-AST (considering the degradation associated with developing chromophores, moisture penetration and photobleaching effects) to be like those in fielded modules, more so than other chamber stress testing implemented for comparison. We found light-induced degradation (LID) in module types with regenerated (inactive) cells with C-AST, suggesting the possibility of LID destabilization in some field conditions. We could also distinguish potential-induced degradation (PID) on the back of the bifacial passivated emitter and rear cells (PERC) in C-AST. Confirming with ex-situ tests, we found polarization-type PID most prevalent in glass-glass modules with EVA as would be anticipated considering the greater leakage current through such module encapsulation. Unlike PID tests performed in the dark, which can lead to false positive PID test results, field-representative illumination is experienced by the modules on the front and back side while –1200 V system voltage is applied in C-AST, supporting the conclusion that this module type with glass-glass construction would be susceptible to PID in the field.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field‐representative evaluation of PID‐polarization in TOPCon PV modules by accelerated stress testing

Abstract Potential‐induced degradation‐polarization (PID‐p) can reduce module power, but how to project the extent to which PID‐p may occur in field conditions considering the factors of system voltage, condensed moisture, temperature, and illumination has not been clarified. Using tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules, this work demonstrates a method to test full‐size crystalline silicon PV modules for PID‐p to provide field‐representative results. In initial screening tests with positive or negative 1000 V electrical bias applied at 60°C for 96 h using Al foil electrodes on the glass surfaces, the module type exhibited reversible PID‐p only on the front face when the cell circuit was in negative voltage potential. No PID was detected on the rear after testing in either polarity. We then evaluated the PID‐p sensitivity on the front side under different UV irradiances while maintaining the glass surface wet to estimate real‐world susceptibility to PID‐p. The magnitude of the observed behavior was fit using a previously developed charge transfer and depletion by light model. Whereas power loss with −1000 V applied to the cell circuit at 60°C for 96 h in the dark was about 30%, testing the module front under 0.051 W·m −2 nm −1 at 340 nm UVA irradiation using fluorescent tubes, the mean degradation was only 3%. When the modules were tested in the dark for PID‐p with in situ dark current–voltage (I‐V) characterization, the thermal activation energy for degradation was 0.71 eV; for recovery in the dark, it was 0.58 eV. Whereas recovery from the degraded state at 60°C in the dark without voltage bias was 5% absolute in 38 h, rapid recovery of about 5% absolute was observed with 1000 W·s/m 2 exposure at 25°C using a flash tester.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional Relevance of CASP16 Nucleic Acid Predictions as Evaluated by Structure Providers

ABSTRACT Accurate biomolecular structure prediction enables the prediction of mutational effects, the speculation of function based on predicted structural homology, the analysis of ligand binding modes, experimental model building, and many other applications. Such algorithms to predict essential functional and structural features remain out of reach for biomolecular complexes containing nucleic acids. Here, we report a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of nucleic acid structures for the CASP16 blind prediction challenge by 12 of the experimental groups who provided nucleic acid targets. Blind predictions accurately model secondary structure and some aspects of tertiary structure, including reasonable global folds for some complex RNAs; however, predictions often lack accuracy in the regions of highest functional importance. All models have inaccuracies in non‐canonical regions where, for example, the nucleic‐acid backbone bends, deviating from an A‐form helix geometry, or a base forms a non‐standard hydrogen bond (not a Watson‐Crick base pair). These bends and non‐canonical interactions are integral to forming functionally important regions such as RNA enzymatic active sites. Additionally, the modeling of conserved and functional interfaces between nucleic acids and ligands, proteins, or other nucleic acids remains poor. For some targets, the experimental structures may not represent the only structure the biomolecular complex occupies in solution or in its functional life cycle, posing a future challenge for the community.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Neutron-Radiation Tolerance of Lithium Indium Diselenide Semiconductors

Herein we discuss lithium indium diselenide (LISe) as a semiconductor that holds promise for neutron imaging sensor technologies because of its high neutron absorption efficiency and its corresponding ability to discriminate between gamma rays and neutrons. However, being a semiconductor, LISe may not be sufficiently radiation hard for practical application in radiation hard environments. Therefore, a systematic evaluation of the changes in material and electronic properties of LISe after high neutron fluence exposures is investigated. Herein, the characterization methods are utilized which included UV–vis, X-ray diffraction, radioluminescence, Raman, fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), current–voltage, and neutron sensing. Characteristics of LISe material that appeared in the literature are identified herein along with several that are expected to appear based on theoretical analyses. The results obtained show clear changes in the material properties of LISe after neutron exposure up to a fluence of 10 16 n cm -2 . However, LISe is still able to sense neutrons above the background at 10 16 n cm -2 , suggesting that LISe may be suitable for use in neutron imaging sensors at neutron imaging facilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO‐initiative

Abstract Quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBOs) in thirteen atmospheric general circulation models forced with both observed and annually repeating sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are evaluated. In most models the QBO period is close to, but shorter than, the observed period of 28 months. Amplitudes are within ±20 % of the observed QBO amplitude at 10 hPa, but typically about half of that observed at lower altitudes (50 and 70 hPa). For almost all models, the oscillation's amplitude profile shows an overall upward shift compared to reanalysis and its meridional extent is too narrow. Asymmetry in the duration of eastward and westward phases is reasonably well captured, though not all models replicate the observed slowing of the descending westward shear. Westward phases are generally too weak, and most models have an eastward time mean wind bias throughout the depth of the QBO. The intercycle period variability is realistic and in some models is enhanced in the experiment with observed SSTs compared to the experiment with repeated annual cycle SSTs. Mean periods are also sensitive to this difference between SSTs, but only when parametrized non‐orographic gravity wave (NOGW) sources are coupled to tropospheric parameters and not prescribed with a fixed value. Overall, however, modelled QBOs are very similar whether or not the prescribed SSTs vary interannually. A portrait of the overall ensemble performance is provided by a normalized grading of QBO metrics. To simulate a QBO, all but one model used parametrized NOGWs, which provided the majority of the total wave forcing at altitudes above 70 hPa in most models. Hence the representation of NOGWs either explicitly or through parametrization is still a major uncertainty underlying QBO simulation in these present‐day experiments.

Bushell, A. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

Surface, upper-air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three-dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon-sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS-simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five-day event with peak rates of ~3 mm h -1 and a total accumulation of ~22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five-day event due to a low-level dry bias in the forecasts. Herein, the results show the first observationally based three-dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.

AMPS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The soil health assessment protocol and evaluation applied to soil organic carbon

The concept of soil health has evolved over the past several decades, recognizing that dynamic soil property response to management and land use is highly dependent on site-specific factors that must be considered when interpreting soil health measurements. Initially, the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) and Comprehensive Assessment of Soil Health (CASH) were developed and used globally for scoring soil health indicators. However, both SMAF and CASH frameworks were developed using a relatively small dataset and their interpretation curves were not validated at the nationwide scale. Expanding upon these concepts, we propose the Soil Health Assessment Protocol and Evaluation (SHAPE) tool. The SHAPE was developed using 14,680 soil organic C (SOC) observations from across the United States, and accounts for edaphic and climate factors at the continental scale. Data were compiled from the literature, the Cornell Soil Health Laboratory, and the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory. In this approach, scoring curves are Bayesian model-based estimates of the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) for defined soil peer groups reflecting five soil texture and five soil suborder classes adjusted for mean annual temperature and precipitation. Specifically, SHAPE produces scores between 0 and 1 (0–100%) for measured SOC values that reflect the quantile or position within the conditional CDF along with measures of uncertainty. Herein, we focus on development of the SHAPE scoring curve for SOC with our case studies. SHAPE is a flexible, quantitative tool that provides a regionally relevant interpretation of this key soil health indicator.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating causal‐based feature selection for fuel property prediction models

Abstract In‐silico screening of novel biofuel molecules based on chemical and fuel properties is a critical first step in the biofuel evaluation process due to the significant volumes of samples required for experimental testing, the destructive nature of engine tests, and the costs associated with bench‐scale synthesis of novel fuels. Predictive models are limited by training sets of few existing measurements, often containing similar classes of molecules that represent just a subset of the potential molecular fuel space. Software tools can be used to generate every possible molecular descriptor for use as input features, but most of these features are largely irrelevant and training models on datasets with higher dimensionality than size tends to yield poor predictive performance. Feature selection has been shown to improve machine learning models, but correlation‐based feature selection fails to provide scientific insight into the underlying mechanisms that determine structure–property relationships. The implementation of causal discovery in feature selection could potentially inform the biofuel design process while also improving model prediction accuracy and robustness to new data. In this study, we investigate the benefits causal‐based feature selection might have on both model performance and identification of key molecular substructures. We found that causal‐based feature selection performed on par with alternative filtration methods, and that a structural causal model provides valuable scientific insights into the relationships between molecular substructures and fuel properties.

Nguyen, Bernard↗
DOE OSTI2023

Jay : A software framework for prototyping and evaluating offloading applications in hybrid edge clouds

Abstract We present Jay , a software framework for offloading applications in hybrid edge clouds. Jay provides an API, services, and tools that enable mobile application developers to implement, instrument, and evaluate offloading applications using configurable cloud topologies, offloading strategies, and job types. We start by presenting Jay 's job model and the concrete architecture of the framework. We then present the programming API with several examples of customization. Then, we turn to the description of the internal implementation of Jay instances and their components. Finally, we describe the Jay Workbench, a tool that allows the setup, execution, and reproduction of experiments with networks of hosts with different resource capabilities organized with specific topologies. The complete source code for the framework and workbench is provided in a GitHub repository.

Silva, Joaquim↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Power-Capping Metric Evaluation for Improving Energy Efficiency in HPC Applications

With high-performance computing systems now running at exascale, optimizing power-scaling management and resource utilization has become more critical than ever. This paper explores runtime power-capping optimizations that leverage integrated CPU-GPU power management on architectures like the NVIDIA GH200 superchip. We evaluate energy-performance metrics that account for simultaneous CPU and GPU power-capping effects by using two complementary approaches: speedup-energy-delay and a Euclidean distance-based multi-objective optimization method. By targeting a mostly compute-bound exascale science application, the Locally Self-Consistent Multiple Scattering (LSMS), we explore challenging scenarios to identify potential opportunities for energy savings in exascale applications, and we recognize that even modest reductions in energy consumption can have significant overall impacts. Our results highlight how GPU task-specific dynamic power-cap adjustments combined with integrated CPU-GPU power steering can improve the energy utilization of certain GPU tasks, thereby laying the groundwork for future adaptive optimization strategies.

Patrou, Maria [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000339754638)↗
DOE OSTI2022

First evaluation of meson and τ lepton spectra and search for heavy neutral leptons at ILC beam dump

A beam dump experiment can be seamlessly added to the proposed Inter- national Linear Collider (ILC) program because the high energy electron beam should be dumped after the collision point. The ILC beam dump experiment will provide an excellent opportunity to search for new long-lived particles. Since many of them can be produced by a rare decay of standard model particles, we evaluate spectra of the mesons and τ lepton at the decay based on the PHITS and PYTHIA8 simulations. As a motivated physics case, we study the projected sensitivity of heavy neutral leptons at the ILC beam dump experiment. The heavy neutral leptons can also be produced via deep inelastic scattering and Z boson decay at the ILC main detector, which we include in the projection. With the multi-track signal, the reach would be greatly extended in mass and coupling, even compared with the other proposed searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the mutagenicity of N-nitrosodimethylamine in 2D and 3D HepaRG cell cultures using error-corrected next generation sequencing

Human liver-derived metabolically competent HepaRG cells have been successfully employed in both two-dimensional (2D) and 3D spheroid formats for performing the comet assay and micronucleus (MN) assay. In the present study, we have investigated expanding the genotoxicity endpoints evaluated in HepaRG cells by detecting mutagenesis using two error-corrected next generation sequencing (ecNGS) technologies, Duplex Sequencing (DS) and High-Fidelity (HiFi) Sequencing. Both HepaRG 2D cells and 3D spheroids were exposed for 72 h to N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), followed by an additional incubation for the fixation of induced mutations. NDMA-induced DNA damage, chromosomal damage, and mutagenesis were determined using the comet assay, MN assay, and ecNGS, respectively. The 72-h treatment with NDMA resulted in concentration-dependent increases in cytotoxicity, DNA damage, MN formation, and mutation frequency in both 2D and 3D cultures, with greater responses observed in the 3D spheroids compared to 2D cells. The mutational spectrum analysis showed that NDMA induced predominantly A:T → G:C transitions, along with a lower frequency of G:C → A:T transitions, and exhibited a different trinucleotide signature relative to the negative control. These results demonstrate that the HepaRG 2D cells and 3D spheroid models can be used for mutagenesis assessment using both DS and HiFi Sequencing, with the caveat that severe cytotoxic concentrations should be avoided when conducting DS. With further validation, the HepaRG 2D/3D system may become a powerful human-based metabolically competent platform for genotoxicity testing.

3D spheroids↗
DOE OSTI2019

Computed tomography (CT) in the evaluation of bladder and ureteral trauma: indications, technique, and diagnosis

Introduction: Trauma to the genitourinary system includes blunt and penetrating injuries to bladder and ureters. These are rare injuries and are overlooked as other abdominal and pelvic injuries often take priority. Delayed diagnosis can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. Computed tomography has taken a central role in the imaging of the ureters and bladder. Methods: This article reviews the anatomic relationships, mechanisms of injury, and clinical presentation to help physicians determine when bladder and ureteral injuries should be suspected and further imaging should be pursued. Radiologic evaluation of bladder and ureteral injury with CT cystography and CT urography, respectively, will be reviewed. Conclusion: CT cystography and CT urography are effective tools in identifying potentially serious injuries to the genitourinary system. Timely recognition of these injuries can be crucial for the overall management and prognosis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗