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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Application of Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to a Large System Dynamics Model

Variance-based sensitivity methods can provide insights into large computational models. We present a novel application of sensitivity analysis to the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) a large and complex system dynamics model of the developing biofuels industry in the United States. We apply a two-stage sensitivity approach consisting of an initial sensitivity screening, followed by a variance decomposition approach. Identifying key system levers and quantifying their strength is not straightforward in complex system dynamics models that have numerous feedbacks and nonlinear results. Variance-based sensitivity analysis (VBSA) offers a systematic, global approach to assessing system dynamics models because it addresses nonlinear responses and interactive effects. Especially when a large model's size makes manual exploration of the input space difficult and time-consuming, the approach can help to provide a comprehensive understanding of interactions that drive model behaviors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A System for Fault Management and Fault Consequences Analysis for NASA's Deep Space Habitat

NASA's exploration program envisions the utilization of a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) for human exploration of the space environment in the vicinity of Mars and/or asteroids. Communication latencies with ground control of as long as 20+ minutes make it imperative that DSH operations be highly autonomous, as any telemetry-based detection of a systems problem on Earth could well occur too late to assist the crew with the problem. A DSH-based development program has been initiated to develop and test the automation technologies necessary to support highly autonomous DSH operations. One such technology is a fault management tool to support performance monitoring of vehicle systems operations and to assist with real-time decision making in connection with operational anomalies and failures. Toward that end, we are developing Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS), a tool that combines dynamic and interactive graphical representations of spacecraft systems, systems modeling, automated diagnostic analysis and root cause identification, system and mission impact assessment, and mitigation procedure identification to help spacecraft operators (both flight controllers and crew) understand and respond to anomalies more effectively. In this paper, we describe four major architecture elements of ACAWS: Anomaly Detection, Fault Isolation, System Effects Analysis, and Graphic User Interface (GUI), and how these elements work in concert with each other and with other tools to provide fault management support to both the controllers and crew. We then describe recent evaluations and tests of ACAWS on the DSH testbed. The results of these tests support the feasibility and strength of our approach to failure management automation and enhanced operational autonomy

System Effects Analysis↗

Analytical Flight Dynamic Model Development for eVTOL Aircraft

This paper presents an analytical flight dynamic model development method for a multi- rotor eVTOL aircraft in hover and transition flight. The method captures the analytical stability and control sensitivities of rotor unsteady aerodynamic loads about a trim solution generated by a rotorcraft aeromechanics comprehensive analysis tool. The rotor aerody- namic forces include circulatory and non-circulatory components to account for unsteady aerodynamics. The circulatory forces are corrected for unsteady aerodynamics using the time-domain approximation of Theodorsen’s function. The integrated flight dynamic model includes the rigid-body aircraft flight dynamics, inflow dynamics, unsteady aerodynamics, and blade pitch and rotor actuator dynamics. Stability analyses shows that the Lift+Cruise aircraft is statically unstable in roll and yaw axes and also dynamically unstable in hover. Closed-loop feedback control is necessary for stable hover flight.

rotorcraft↗

Cross-Vendor and Cross-State Analysis of GPS Probe Data Latency

Crowd sourced GPS probe data have become a major source of real-time traffic information applications. In addition to traditional traveler advisory systems such as dynamic message signs (DMS) and 511 systems, probe data are being used for automatic incident detection, integrated corridor management (ICM), end of queue warning systems, and mobility-related smartphone applications. Several private sector vendors offer minute by minute network-wide travel time and speed probe data. The quality of such data in terms of deviation of the reported travel time and speeds from ground-truth has been extensively studied in recent years, and as a result concerns over the accuracy of probe data have mostly faded away. However, the latency of probe data - defined as the lag between the time at which disturbance in traffic speed is reported in the outsourced data feed, and the time at which the traffic is perturbed - has become a subject of interest. The extent of latency of probe data for real-time applications is critical, so it is important to have a good understanding of the amount of latency and its influencing factors. This paper uses high-quality independent Bluetooth/Wi-Fi re-identification data collected on multiple freeway segments in three different states, to measure the latency of the vehicle probe data provided by three major vendors. The statistical distribution of the latency and its sensitivity to speed slowdown and recovery periods are discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Euler flutter analysis of airfoils using unstructured dynamic meshes

Modifications to a two-dimensional unsteady Euler code for the aeroelastic analysis of airfoils are described. The modifications involve including the structural equations of motion and their simultaneous time-integration with the governing flow equations. A novel aspect of the capability is that the solutions are obtained using unstructured grids made up of triangles. Comparisons are made with parallel calculations performed using linear theory and a structured grid Euler code to assess the accuracy of the unstructured grid Euler results. Results are presented for a flat plate airfoil and the NACA 0012 airfoil to demonstrate applications of the Euler code for generalized force computations and aeroelastic analysis. In these comparisons, two different finite-volume discretizations of the Euler equations on unstructured meshes were employed. Sensitivity of the Euler results to changes in numerical parameters were also investigated.

Rausch, Russ D.↗

Statistical Analysis of the First Passage Path Ensemble of Jump Processes

The transition mechanism of jump processes between two different subsets in state space reveals important dynamical information of the processes and therefore has attracted considerable attention in the past years. In this paper, we study the first passage path ensemble of both discrete-time and continuous-time jump processes on a finite state space. The main approach is to divide each first passage path into nonreactive and reactive segments and to study them separately. The analysis can be applied to jump processes which are non-ergodic, as well as continuous-time jump processes where the waiting time distributions are non-exponential. In the particular case that the jump processes are both Markovian and ergodic, our analysis elucidates the relations between the study of the first passage paths and the study of the transition paths in transition path theory. We provide algorithms to numerically compute statistics of the first passage path ensemble. The computational complexity of these algorithms scales with the complexity of solving a linear system, for which efficient methods are available. Several examples demonstrate the wide applicability of the derived results across research areas.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Entanglement and correlations in fast collective neutrino flavor oscillations

Collective neutrino oscillations play a crucial role in transporting lepton flavor in astrophysical settings like supernovae and neutron star binary merger remnants, which are characterized by large neutrino densities. In these settings, simulations in the mean-field approximation show that neutrino-neutrino interactions can overtake vacuum oscillations and give rise to fast collective flavor evolution on time-scales t ∝ μ –1 , with μ proportional to the local neutrino density. In this work, we study the full out-of-equilibrium flavor dynamics in simple multi-angle geometries displaying fast oscillations in the mean field linear stability analysis. Focusing on simple initial conditions, we analyze the production of pair correlations and entanglement in the complete many-body-dynamics as a function of the number N of neutrinos in the system, for up to thousands of neutrinos. Similarly to simpler geometries with only two neutrino beams, we identify three regimes: stable configurations with vanishing flavor oscillations, marginally unstable configurations with evolution occurring on long time scales τ ≈ µ –1 $\sqrt{N}$, and unstable configurations showing flavor evolution on short time scales τ ≈ μ –1 log(N). Here, we present evidence that these fast collective modes are generated by the same dynamical phase transition which leads to the slow bipolar oscillations, establishing a connection between these two phenomena and explaining the difference in their time scales. We conclude by discussing a semi-classical approximation which reproduces the entanglement entropy at short to medium time scales and can be potentially useful in situations with more complicated geometries where classical simulation methods starts to become inefficient.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Ultrafast Light-Induced Magnetoelectric Effect in van der Waals Magnetic Semiconductor Heterostructures

Atomic-scale heterostructures of van der Waals (vdW) magnets and semiconductors provide a unique environment for exploring magnetic dynamics. In contrast to typical photothermal excitation of precessional magnetization dynamics by a pump laser pulse, we find that ultrafast optical excitation of a WS2/CrGeTe3 (CGT) bilayer produces an opposite sign of magnetic torque compared to an isolated CGT film. Experimental observations by time-resolved magneto-optic Kerr effect (TR-MOKE) and theoretical analysis by density functional theory (DFT) and Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) simulations support a mechanism in which charge transfer of photoexcited carriers across the interface alters the perpendicular magnetic anisotropy, which in turn generates a torque on the magnetic layer to trigger precessional magnetization dynamics. These results provide new avenues for ultrafast manipulation of magnetization in vdW heterostructures with type-II band alignments. Lastly, we show that optically-generated spin currents from WS2 into CGT can also trigger precessional dynamics via angular momentum transfer.

Zhou, Wenyi [The Ohio State University]↗

On the role of fluids in stick-slip dynamics of saturated granular fault gouge using a coupled computational fluid dynamics-discrete element approach: STICK-SLIP IN SATURATED FAULT GOUGE

The presence of fault gouge has considerable influence on slip properties of tectonic faults and the physics of earthquake rupture. The presence of fluids within faults also plays a significant role in faulting and earthquake processes. In this study, we present 3-D discrete element simulations of dry and fluid-saturated granular fault gouge and analyze the effect of fluids on stick-slip behavior. Fluid flow is modeled using computational fluid dynamics based on the Navier-Stokes equations for an incompressible fluid and modified to take into account the presence of particles. Analysis of a long time train of slip events shows that the (1) drop in shear stress, (2) compaction of granular layer, and (3) the kinetic energy release during slip all increase in magnitude in the presence of an incompressible fluid, compared to dry conditions. We also observe that on average, the recurrence interval between slip events is longer for fluid-saturated granular fault gouge compared to the dry case. This observation is consistent with the occurrence of larger events in the presence of fluid. It is found that the increase in kinetic energy during slip events for saturated conditions can be attributed to the increased fluid flow during slip. Finally, our observations emphasize the important role that fluid flow and fluid-particle interactions play in tectonic fault zones and show in particular how discrete element method (DEM) models can help understand the hydromechanical processes that dictate fault slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of Diisocyanate and Polymeric Epoxidized Chain Extenders on the Properties of Recycled Poly(Lactic Acid)

Increasing demand in the use of poly(lactic acid) (PLA) leads to a debate about using potential foodstuffs for plastic production and a moral issue when starvation problem is taken into account. One of the solutions is recycling of PLA; however, recycling results in property losses during melt processing due to low thermal stability of PLA. This study focuses on using chain extenders to offset thermal degradation of recycled PLA. The effects of a diisocyanate and a polymeric epoxidized chain extender on the properties of the recycled poly(lactic acid) were investigated. In order to mimic the recycling process, PLA was subjected to thermo-mechanical degradation using a laboratory scale compounder. Chain extender type, loading and mixing time were investigated. On-line rheology and intrinsic viscosity measurements of PLA before and after chain extension confirmed that the molecular weight increased. Dynamic mechanical analysis, rheology and tensile tests revealed that the chain extenders led to a significant increase in modulus, strength and melt-viscosity. It was found that diisocyanate had slightly higher and faster chain extension reactivity than polymeric extender. Differential scanning calorimetry results showed an increase in the crystallization temperature due to the branched and extended chain structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deep Koopman learning of nonlinear time-varying systems

Here this paper presents a data-driven approach to approximate the dynamics of a nonlinear time-varying system (NTVS) by a linear time-varying system (LTVS), which results from the Koopman operator and deep neural networks. Analysis of the approximation error between states of the NTVS and the resulting LTVS is presented. Simulations on a representative NTVS show that the proposed method achieves small approximation errors, even when the system changes rapidly. Furthermore, simulations in an example of quadcopters demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ion-Electron Coupling-Driven Redox Behavior in Metal–Organic Frameworks

Redox-active metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have long been proposed as electronic transport platforms, yet the microscopic origin of their conductivity remains debated. A theoretical demonstration reveals charge transport in a Zn(pyrazole–naphthalene diimide (NDI)) MOF arising not from delocalized band-like states but from redox hopping between discrete linker sites. Using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations combined with electronic structure analysis, we established a direct link among electron injection, structural reorganization, and transport. Electron accumulation proceeds sequentially and site-selectively from imide and carbonyl groups of the NDI core progressively involving pyrazole N atoms at higher reduction states, through a hierarchy of redox-active sites. In contrast, Zn nodes remain essentially redox-inactive, which confirms their structural role. Density-of-states analysis corroborates a transport regime dominated by linker-centered states with evolving p-character upon reduction, resulting in dynamically reconfigured conduction networks. Real-time trajectories reveal anisotropic linker-to-linker electron transfer modulated by counterion coordination. This cooperative ion–electron regime emerges from potential energy surface collapse into a single low-barrier transition (ΔG ‡ ≈ 45 meV), where ionic and electronic motions evolve adiabatically on the same free-energy landscape. Elucidating redox conductivity in Zn(pyrazole–NDI) MOFs provides a theoretical framework for use in neuromorphic computing and related technologies.

Charge transfer↗

Online real-time learning of dynamical systems from noisy streaming data

Abstract Recent advancements in sensing and communication facilitate obtaining high-frequency real-time data from various physical systems like power networks, climate systems, biological networks, etc. However, since the data are recorded by physical sensors, it is natural that the obtained data is corrupted by measurement noise. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for online real-time learning of dynamical systems from noisy time-series data, which employs the Robust Koopman operator framework to mitigate the effect of measurement noise. The proposed algorithm has three main advantages: (a) it allows for online real-time monitoring of a dynamical system; (b) it obtains a linear representation of the underlying dynamical system, thus enabling the user to use linear systems theory for analysis and control of the system; (c) it is computationally fast and less intensive than the popular extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. We illustrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm by applying it to identify the Van der Pol oscillator, the chaotic attractor of the Henon map, the IEEE 68 bus system, and a ring network of Van der Pol oscillators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detecting Masquerade Attacks in Controller Area Networks Using Graph Machine Learning

Modern vehicles rely on a myriad of electronic control units (ECUs) interconnected via controller area networks (CANs) for critical operations. Despite their ubiquitous use and reliability, CANs are susceptible to sophisticated cyberattacks, particularly masquerade attacks, which inject false data that mimic legitimate messages at the expected frequency. These attacks pose severe risks such as unintended acceleration, brake deactivation, and rogue steering. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) often struggle to detect these subtle intrusions due to their seamless integration into normal traffic. This paper introduces a novel framework for detecting masquerade attacks in the CAN bus using graph machine learning (ML). We hypothesize that the integration of shallow graph embeddings with time series features derived from CAN frames enhances the detection of masquerade attacks. We show that by representing CAN bus frames as message sequence graphs (MSGs) and enriching each node with contextual statistical attributes from time series, we can enhance detection capabilities across various attack patterns compared to using graph-based features only. Our method ensures a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of CAN frame interactions, improving robustness and efficiency. Extensive experiments on the ROAD dataset validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating statistically significant improvements in the detection rates of masquerade attacks compared to a baseline that uses graph-based features only as confirmed by Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests (p < 0.05) .

Marfo, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (Unite↗

Present Early Test Results at SECARB Industry Briefing [Slides]

Contents include the following presentations: 1) SECARB Phase III Early Test Cranfield, MS; 2) SECARB Phase III Early Test at Cranfield, March 9, 2010; 3) Update on Results of SECARB "Early" Test of Monitoring Large Volume Injection at Cranfield; 4) Progress Update SECARB "Early" Test Monitoring 3.5 Million Tons at Cranfield, March 7, 2012; 5) Cranfield Geophysical Monitoring Status and Results, March 8, 2012; 6) Large Volume CO 2 Injection at Cranfield, Early Field Test of the SECARB Phase III–Near-Surface Monitoring, March 7, 2012; 7) Shallow Groundwater Study at the Cranfield Site, March 12, 2013; 8) Subsurface Monitoring Studies–Results and Integration, March 12, 2013; 9) Review of the Petrophysics for the Cranfield Phase III Project, March 12, 2013; 10) Geomechanics at Cranfield, March 5, 2014; 11) Gulf Coast Carbon Center Near-Surface Update, March 4-5, 2014; 12) Monitoring Design Best Practices, March 5, 2014; 13) Assessing Impacts of CO 2 Leakage on Groundwater Quality and Monitoring Network Efficiency–Case Study at a CO 2 -EOR site, March 11, 2013; 14) Near-surface Stratigraphy and Geophysics, March 11, 2015; 15) Update on Reservoir Modeling and Final Testing and P&A Underway, March 11, 2013; 16) SECARB Early Test Retrospective; 17) Fluid Source Attribution at CCS and CO 2 -EOR Sites, March 8, 2016; 18) SECARB "Early Test" at Cranfield, March 8-9, 2017; 19) Analysis of Seismic Time-Lapse Observations at Cranfield; 20) SECARB Phase III Cranfield Project (Early Test), March 8, 2018; 21) Enhanced Analytical Simulation Tool (EASiTool) Dynamic Capacity Estimation; 22) Net Carbon Negative Oil Mass Accounting–Cranfield Case Study; 23) Knowledge Sharing; 24) Advancing Toward Commercialization Final Stages of the Early Test; 25) CO 2 EOR Feasibility in SECARB Region Limited by CH 4 ; 26) Understanding of CO2 Migration and Entrapment–Cranfield Site

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Optimal air-breathing launch vehicle design

A generalized two-point boundary problem methodology, similar to techniques used in deterministic optimal control studies, is applied to the design and flight analysis of a two-stage air-breathing launch vehicle. Simultaneous consideration is given to configuration and trajectory by treating geometry, dynamic discontinuities, and time-dependent flight variables all as controls to be optimized with respect to a single mathematical performance measure. While minimizing fuel consumption, inequality constraints are applied to dynamic pressure and specific force. The optimal system fuel consumption and staging Mach number are found to vary little with changes in the inequality constraints due to substantial geometry and trajectory adjustments. Staging, from an air-breathing first stage to a rocket-powered second stage, consistently occurs near Mach 3.5. The dynamic pressure bound has its most pronounced effects on vehicle geometry, particularly the air-breathing propulsion inlet area, and on the first-stage altitude profile. The specific force has its greatest influence on the second-stage thrust history.

Hattis, P. D.↗

Synthesized airfoil data method for prediction of dynamic stall and unsteady airloads

A detailed analysis of dynamic stall experiments has led to a set of relatively compact analytical expressions, called synthesized unsteady airfoil data, which accurately describe in the time-domain the unsteady aerodynamic characteristics of stalled airfoils. An analytical research program was conducted to expand and improve this synthesized unsteady airfoil data method using additional available sets of unsteady airfoil data. The primary objectives were to reduce these data to synthesized form for use in rotor airload prediction analyses and to generalize the results. Unsteady drag data were synthesized which provided the basis for successful expansion of the formulation to include computation of the unsteady pressure drag of airfoils and rotor blades. Also, an improved prediction model for airfoil flow reattachment was incorporated in the method. Application of this improved unsteady aerodynamics model has resulted in an improved correlation between analytic predictions and measured full scale helicopter blade loads and stress data.

Gangwani, S. T.↗