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Informatics and Decision Support Technology Roadmap

The purpose is to identify shortfalls/gaps, shortfall/gap closure strategies, and candidate investments to mature Informatics and Decision Support technologies in support of M2M Program risk mitigation activities, enable and enhance crew insight to system performance, decision making, and computer-human interaction. In this first publication, scope of the Informatics and Decision Support Roadmap is limited to Deep Space Crew Displays and Audio Systems. Future publications will expand scope to other capabilities.

Geraldo Cisneros↗

Decisions and coordination of retailer-led low-carbon supply chain under altruistic preference

A low-carbon supply chain formed by a dominant retailer and a small and medium-sized manufacturer (SMM) is considered. Because the SMM faces the high cost pressure of adopting carbon emission reduction (CER) technologies, the retailer may take an altruistic preference for the long-term sustainability of the chain. Three decision-making models, centralized, decentralized without altruistic preference, and decentralized with altruistic preference, are constructed to compare decisions and profits of both parties. Since neither decentrailized models can lead to a coordinated solution that is incentive compitable, a coordination contract, referred to as the cost sharing contract with altruistic preference, is proposed. Numerical study shows that the altruistic preference can help increase the SMM's profit and system efficiency but decrease the retailer's profit. The coordination contract requires the retailer to adjust the unit profit and share more than half of the CER cost. Finally, it is found that the wholesale price is the lowest in the coordination contract and the comparison of unit profit depends on the coefficient of CER cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A computer assisted teleoperator control station with tactile feedback

A computer-assisted teleoperator control system for making comparative performance evaluations is described. A local and a remote control station, each with decision-making capability, communicate with each other through a simulated time delay. Supervisory control at three increasingly automatic levels is possible. The highest level of programmed control is facilitated through the ARM language which was developed to permit easily readable program manuscripts to be written and assembled into programs of motions by novice programmers. Experimental results show the advantage of this form of supervisory control with both direct and delayed (3 sec) manipulation tasks. In addition, two systems to measure and reproduce force distributions have been designed. One system reproduces contact on the external surfaces of the remote hand using 21 airjet simulators. Another system reproduces the shape of the contact between object and jaws using 288 piezoelectric (bimorph) stimulators.

Hill, J. W.↗

Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, Volume 1

The findings of the Commission regarding the circumstances surrounding the Challenger accident are reported and recommendations for corrective action are outlined. All available mission data, subsequent tests, and wreckage analyses were reviewed and specific failure scenarios were developed. The Commission concluded that the cause of the Mission 51-L accident was the failure of the pressure seal in the aft field joint of the right solid rocket motor. The failure was due to a faulty design unacceptably sensitive to a number of factors. These factors were the effects of temperature, physical dimensions, the character of materials, the effects of reuse, processing, and the reaction of the joint to dynamic loading. In addition to analyzing the material causes of the accident, the Commission examined the chain of decisions that culminated in approval of the launch. It concluded that the decision making process was flawed in several ways including (1) failure in communication resulting in a launch decision based on incomplete and misleading information, (2) a conflict between engineering data and management judgements, and (3) a NASA management structure that permitted flight safety problems to bypass key Shuttle managers.

Rogers, W. P.↗

Rule induction techniques

Expert System technology is receiving more and more consideration these days when it comes time for selecting an implementation paradigm. As people become educated as to which domains Expert Systems technology can be appropriately utilized and to what extent this capability can be made useful, they will want to extend this ability to encompass greater responsibilities of their everyday routines. Knowledge Acquisition is one of the most time-consuming phases of an Expert System development process. One must extract the essential knowledge from a source by whatever means, and transform this knowledge into a representation that can be demonstrated. Rule Induction is one technique that can be applied to the knowledge acquisition process for certain example-based problems. Spread Sheets and Data Bases for example, may contain columns of information (criteria) to be used in some sort of decision making policy. These criteria could automatically be converted (represented) into production rules that output an appropriate decision dependent upon a given set of criteria. To generalize this concept, we could state that Rule Induction is the process of generating a Knowledge Base from a given set of examples. Through the use of Rule Induction, I will explain how I took information from a database and generated rules encapsulating the information contained within the database.

Young, Gary B.↗

Harnessing Systems Engineering Methodology in Using Earth Science Research Data for Real Applications

For the last three decades, Earth science remote sensing technologies have been providing an enormous amount of useful data and information serving to broaden our understanding of the home planet as a system. NASA's Earth science program has deployed about 18 complex satellites and is in the process of defining and launching multiple observing systems in this decade. At the same time, the European Community and many other countries such as Russia, France, India, Japan, and China have also significantly contributed to Earth science research. To date, the majority of such efforts have concentrated on expanding our scientific understanding of the multiple nonlinear and chaotic processes of Earth's behavior. In recent years, legislators and stakeholders have put serious pressure on the science community to devote more attention to making use of scientific results for societal benefit. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural efficiency, disaster management, air quality and public health that can directly take advantage of Earth science results to analyze and predict large scale problems and conditions. This is becoming even more important now that we live in a global economy interconnected via the internet and transportation systems; regional environmental conditions can have far reaching impact across continental boundaries. These factors dictate requirements for global data that can help us assess and control the devastating problems of famine, water resources, wildfires, human health and more. To do this requires a serious, organized, and systematic approach that transfers fundamental research products to the applied sciences domain. This paper presents a systems engineering and management process that can effectively make such transfer of data to the user community. Examples are presented on how the above decision making framework can help in solving critical problems such as the spread of vector borne diseases, forecasts of harmful algal blooms as well as forest fires and wildfires, and the intercontinental transport of dust storms and pollution.

Habib, Shahid↗

COSPAR Workshop Series on Refining Planetary Protection Requirements for Human Missions to Mars

COSPAR and its space agency partners are supporting a multi-year stepwise process devel-oping needed approaches to address planetary protection requirements for human missions beyond Earth orbit. The objective is to support incremental development from the current qualitative COSPAR planetary protection “Principles and Guidelines for Human Missions to Mars” to quantitative implementable planetary protection requirements for such future mis-sions. The workshops and meetings in this series have involved participants from NASA, ESA, JAXA and other national space agencies, as well as the scientific/technical community, and commercial/private enterprise stakeholders, based around three main topic areas: Microbial and Human Health Monitoring; Spacecraft Technology and Operations, and; Natural Trans-port of Contamination at Mars. This presentation provides a status update on the findings of the COSPAR Meetings on this topic to date. First, the identification and prioritization of knowledge gaps will be summarized. Next, where a knowledge gap is to be addressed by new measurements, example descriptions of measurements needed to close the knowledge gaps (and instruments necessary to make those measurements) will be discussed. Where the knowledge gaps closure is based on Agency policy decisions, the scope of the decision-making parameters and process will be described. Lastly, the presentation will consider how the findings of the study series can be integrated into current and future space agency and COSPAR activities.

J. Andy Spry↗

Applications of NASA’s LANCE Earth Observations for Ecosystem Assessments

As one of NASA's open and free data systems, NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) provides a wide range of near real-time, low latency and expedited data products from NASA and other earth science satellite missions to support users in their understanding of the value and distribution of ecosystem services. LANCE data can support the System of Environmental Economic Accounting-Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) framework by both facilitating the creation of ecosystem spatial extent and condition accounts, as well as the quantification and mapping of ecosystem services, much more quickly than routine data processing allows. During the past 13 years, LANCE near real-time satellite data products (e.g., surface reflectance, albedo, vegetation height, thermal anomalies, soil moisture, snow cover etc.) have been used to produce ecosystem-related indicators such as vegetation indexes, biomass, land cover maps, fire, and flood products. These ecosystem-related indicators can be integrated into ecosystem services models, tools, and platforms to monitor land cover and land use changes in ecosystem composition in support of land and natural resource management. When using ecosystem services accounts in decision-making, low latency is essential because having up-to-date information can be critical to support decisions being made. With adequate spatial resolution, long time series length, and low latency data products, LANCE would promote the sustainable use of land and natural resources.

Tian Yao↗

A Simulation Modeling Approach to Optimizing Nuclear Waste Dispositioning

The dispositioning of nuclear waste generated at facilities across the country is an ongoing battle that affects us all. National laboratories and research centers dealing in medical research, clean energy, and other nuclear activities such as the Department of Energy (DOE) facilities face the need to properly manage and dispose of nuclear waste. A dynamic modeling solution would enable the DOE and others to make decisions on waste disposal and technological options. In doing so, this research explores modeling techniques using available data to address these situations. The focus being on developing an initial robust and adaptable discrete event model using the ExtendSim tool. This modeling effort will target the dispositioning of transuranic waste at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) which can be expanded to represent the current state of disposition process for waste generated at other DOE facilities. The model aims to assess resource allocation and waste processing options to stabilize productivity and cut the backlog of nuclear waste. By assessing the results of different scenarios, this research aims to provide actionable insights for the DOE. This approach has the potential to significantly improve the management of radioactive waste, offering the capability of evaluating options for optimizing the process for nuclear waste disposal. The findings of this study can serve as a valuable resource for decision-makers and other national laboratories, or research entities engaged in nuclear operations by enabling them to make more informed choices.

Andaverde, Alexis↗

Decision Support for Emergency Operations Centers

The Flood Disaster Mitigation Decision Support System (DSS) is a computerized information system that allows regional emergency-operations government officials to make decisions regarding the dispatch of resources in response to flooding. The DSS implements a real-time model of inundation utilizing recently acquired lidar elevation data as well as real-time data from flood gauges, and other instruments within and upstream of an area that is or could become flooded. The DSS information is updated as new data become available. The model generates realtime maps of flooded areas and predicts flood crests at specified locations. The inundation maps are overlaid with information on population densities, property values, hazardous materials, evacuation routes, official contact information, and other information needed for emergency response. The program maintains a database and a Web portal through which real-time data from instrumentation are gathered into the database. Also included in the database is a geographic information system, from which the program obtains the overlay data for areas of interest as needed. The portal makes some portions of the database accessible to the public. Access to other portions of the database is restricted to government officials according to various levels of authorization. The Flood Disaster Mitigation DSS has been integrated into a larger DSS named REACT (Real-time Emergency Action Coordination Tool), which also provides emergency operations managers with data for any type of impact area such as floods, fires, bomb

Harvey, Craig↗

Assessment of wind power scenario creation methods for stochastic power systems operations

Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production, such as wind, have been gaining popularity for use in stochastic variants of power systems operations scheduling problems, allowing for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The quality of the scenarios has a direct impact on the value of the resulting decisions, but until now, methods for creating scenarios have not been compared under realistic operational conditions. Here, we compare the quality of scenario sets created using three different methods, based on a simulated re-enactment of stochastic day-ahead unit commitment and subsequent dispatch for a realistic test system. We create scenarios using a dataset of forecasted and actual wind power values, scaled to evaluate the effects of increasing wind penetration levels. We show that the choice of scenario set can significantly impact system operating cost, renewable energy use, and the ability of the system to meet demand. This result has implications for the ability of system operators to efficiently integrate renewable production into their day-ahead planning, highlighting the need for the use of performance-based assessments for scenario evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulation of Particulate Transport for Delivery of Solid Amendments into the Subsurface: FY24 Status Report

For particulate-based amendments to be viable for field-scale remediation at the Hanford Site (e.g., 200 DV-1 Operable Unit), particles need to be delivered a sufficient radial distance from an injection well and retained at concentrations high enough for effective treatment. An accurate description of the particle radius of influence (ROI) is critical for developing an overall remediation strategy. However, field-scale particle simulations are currently limited due to insufficient simulation capabilities and a lack of experimental data to validate and parameterize particle transport models. To help build toward field-scale deployment, this fiscal year (FY) we have (1) developed a pre screening tool to estimate particle transport, (2) implemented particle transport models within PFLOTRAN, and (3) conducted preliminary estimations of particle ROI. While field-scale numerical simulations will ultimately be necessary before remedy design and field implementation, we have developed a pre-screening tool that offers valuable estimations of expected particle injectability and ROI in a 1-D system. The advantage of the tool is that it does not require extensive laboratory experiments and instead makes predictions based solely on routine laboratory measurements. This tool can assist in down-selection and decision-making by identifying which particle amendment systems are worth pursuing in future laboratory experiments, such as 1-D column tests and beyond. With any system, scaling up from the lab to the field presents challenges. Currently, there is no field data available for model calibration or validation. However, the theoretical particle models being developed herein are the best tools available to guide progress toward field deployment. To help bridge this gap and verify model predictions, larger-scale lab experiments are being proposed. To advance simulation capabilities, six particle transport models are being integrated into the reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN. These include colloid filtration theory (CFT) and five additional particle transport models (M1-M5). Each model, from M1 to M5, progressively incorporates additional particle transport and retention processes. Ultimately, the simplest model capable of accurately describing 1-D column data will be selected and parameterized. During FY24, the CFT and M1 model have been fully implemented within PFLOTRAN. Using an existing 1 D column experiment, the two currently implemented particle transport models (CFT and M1), and associated parameters, were fit to this experiment. While simpler model formulations are helpful for estimations, these formulations could not fully describe particle transport and retention behavior in the previous 1-D column experiment. Thus, additional complexities will need to be considered, which will be accounted for in the M2-M5 model formulations. Additionally, because a viscous, shear thinning fluid was required to keep particles in suspension, considerations for flow will also need to also be accounted for. Therefore, a new immiscible two-phase flow mode is currently being implemented in PFLOTRAN. With some modifications, this new flow module could also support simulation of non-Newtonian liquid amendments, foams, and emulsions. We also estimated the expected ROI of solid amendments using 1-D simulations. The average predicted ROI was approximately 15 ft for micron-sized zero valent iron (mZVI) suspended in xanthan gum (XG). Using the pre screening tool and ROI estimates, additional amendment-delivery laboratory characterization and experiments are proposed. The results from additional experiments can be used to validate and parametrize particulate transport model formulations, which will ultimately provide predictive capabilities for field amendment-delivery systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Monitoring for Space Farming Institute [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NREL, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported the Space Farming Institute, a nonprofit organization located in Anchorage, AK, with an indoor air quality analysis. The NREL team analyzed indoor air quality data provided by the Space Farming Institute, which experts at PNNL used to design an indoor bioreactor to grow Ulva algae for indoor air quality mitigation purposes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimizing Fleet Operations With Telematics [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NLR, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Prince William County, VA with information about fleet charging and telematics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy to Communities Program Short Introduction: Evaluation of Enhanced Geothermal System for Cornell District Heating [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NLR, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Cornell University (Itaca, NY) community efforts in developing Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) reservoir performance, by simulating fracture flow to estimate pressure drop, flow distribution, and heat extraction efficiency in fractured rock. Thermal drawdown modeling was used to assess long-term resource sustainability, while system optimization studies refined key parameters such as well configuration and flow rate to improve overall reservoir efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Understanding Fleet Charging Needs [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, National Laboratory of the Rockies, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Prince William County, VA with information about fleet charging and telematics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Distributed Energy Generation in Crow Creek, Alaska

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NLR, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Crow Creek in Girdwood, AK with a feasibility analysis for a microgrid to provide year-round power across the community.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗