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DOE OSTI2022

A fusion relevant data-driven engineering void swelling model for 9Cr tempered martensitic steels

The UCSB database on cavity evolution in 9-12Cr tempered martensitic steels (TMS), includes the results for both dual heavy and helium ion (DII), and High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) in situ helium injection (ISHI) neutron irradiations at 500°C. These results were combined with literature single ion and fission neutron irradiation data to derive a model for the void volume fraction, f v , as a function of displacements per atom (dpa) and transmutant helium concentrations in atomic parts per million (appm). The scientific foundation for the paper is described in a companion paper entitled “Cavity Evolution and Void Swelling in Dual Ion Irradiated Tempered Martensitic Steels”. Here, in this study, we show that f v (dpa, He/dpa) is described by the incubation dose, dpa i , for the onset of void growth, and the post-incubation growth rate, f v ’(%/dpa). Both dpa i and f v ’ decrease with increasing He/dpa at > ~ 5. The dpa i is also lower for the ISHI neutron irradiations at the same He/dpa. Single heavy ion and fission reactor neutron irradiations, with low He/dpa ratios, have a much larger dpa i . Based on a combined analysis of DII, single ion, ISHI and fission neutron data, we further show that the post-incubation f v data analyzed here have a common empirical curve shape, with f v ’ reaching up to ~ 0.2%/dpa at very high dpa. We also show that f v ’ can be predicted based on a physical model of defect partitioning between evolving sinks. At 500°C and fusion relevant He/dpa ≈ 10, the best-fit model predicts nominal swelling, S = f v /(1-f v ), of ~ 1.1, 4.9 and 16% at 50, 100 and 200 dpa, respectively. The physically motivated, data-driven model includes estimated uncertainties for both dpa i and f v ’.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A TCN-Based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-Ahead Utility-Scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven fluctuation forecasting (FF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the FF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra- hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and FF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the FF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. Here, the framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by 20% - 30% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Systematics in the XENON1T data: The 15-keV anti-axion

The XENON1T collaboration Aprile et al. [2020] has found an excess of electron recoil events in their Science Run 1 data below ~7 keV with a spectral shape consistent with that expected from a solar-axion-induced signal. The claimed statistical significance of the solar-axion model over the null hypothesis is 3.5σ. In this work we provide suggestive evidence for mismodeling in the electron recoil data that may decrease the local significance of the axion model. To reach this conclusion, we search for a signal with the spectral template of the solar axion model, but shifted to higher (unphysical) energies above ~7 keV. We find that the distribution of significances found from this side-band analysis does not follow the expected chi-square distribution. For example, we find a high-significance feature in the data, with a global $p$-value $p≈0.026$, when the solar axion model is shifted upwards in energy by ~15 keV and allowed to have a negative normalization. We argue that such statistical tests, if performed a priori, provide a data-driven way to test and potentially account for systematic uncertainties on the background model in low-threshold dark matter experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Modeling of Bromide and Iodide Hydration with Data-Driven Many-Body Potentials

Ion–water interactions play a central role in determining the properties of aqueous systems in a wide range of environments. However, a quantitative understanding of how the hydration properties of ions evolve from small aqueous clusters to bulk solutions and interfaces remains elusive. Here, we introduce the second generation of data-driven many-body energy (MBnrg) potential energy functions (PEFs) representing bromide–water and iodide–water interactions. The MB-nrg PEFs use permutationally invariant polynomials to reproduce two-body and three-body energies calculated at the coupled cluster level of theory, and implicitly represent all higher-body energies using classical many-body polarization. Further, a systematic analysis of the hydration structure of small Br - (H 2 O) n and I - (H 2 O) n clusters demonstrates that the MBnrg PEFs predict interaction energies in quantitative agreement with “gold standard” coupled cluster reference values. Importantly, when used in molecular dynamics simulations carried out in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble for single bromide and iodide ions in liquid water, the MB-nrg PEFs predict extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectra that accurately reproduce the experimental spectra, which thus allows for characterizing the hydration structure of the two ions with high level of confidence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integral Experiment Request 523 CED-2 Report

This report documents the final design phase of the Critical Experiment Design (CED-2) conducted as part of integral experiment request (IER) 523. The purpose of IER 523 is to determine critical configurations of 35 weight percent (wt%) enriched uranium dioxide beryllium oxide (UO 2 -BeO) material driven by an annular ring of Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) fuel rods at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia). The experiments will provide benchmark data on water moderated, intermediately enriched UO2 systems as well as Be nuclear data. The experiment will also provide partial validation for the beryllium oxide (BeO) thermal neutron scattering law (TSL) in the thermal energy range. Experiment design concepts, neutronic analysis results, and proposed paths for continuing the CED process are presented. This report builds on the feasibility and justification of experimental need report (CED-0) and preliminary experiment design report (CED-1) completed in December 2021 and September 2023, respectively [1, 2].

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Voyager 2 plasma ion observations in the magnetosphere of Uranus

Positive ion measurements in the magnetosphere of Uranus have been made by the Voyager 2 plasma science experiment. The paper presents an overview of the entire data set and a detailed analysis of the observations from the inner magnetosphere which complements and extends results reported elsewhere. Densities and temperatures are obtained from an analysis which incorporates details of the instrumental response. These results are then used to calculate flux tube particle and energy content to support the hypothesis that the plasma transport is controlled by a solar wind-driven magnetospheric convection system. Variations in the flux tube content suggest both a local source of plasma, produced from the neutral hydrogen corona of Uranus, and a nonlocal source, convected inwared and heated by adiabatic compression. In each case a proton composition is inferred. Sharp boundaries in the high-energy (approximately 1 keV) plasma population are interpreted in terms of the spatial extent of the magnetospheric convection, with significant shielding of the convection electric field. The convection theory is also used in a simulation of the low-energy (approximately 10 eV) ion component using the neutral hydrogen source, resulting in distribution functions which qualitatively agree with the observations.

Selesnick, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Using XML and Java Technologies for Astronomical Instrument Control

Traditionally, instrument command and control systems have been highly specialized, consisting mostly of custom code that is difficult to develop, maintain, and extend. Such solutions are initially very costly and are inflexible to subsequent engineering change requests, increasing software maintenance costs. Instrument description is too tightly coupled with details of implementation. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the Instrument Remote Control (IRC) project, is developing a general and highly extensible framework that applies to any kind of instrument that can be controlled by a computer. The software architecture combines the platform independent processing capabilities of Java with the power of the Extensible Markup Language (XML), a human readable and machine understandable way to describe structured data. A key aspect of the object-oriented architecture is that the software is driven by an instrument description, written using the Instrument Markup Language (IML), a dialect of XML. IML is used to describe the command sets and command formats of the instrument, communication mechanisms, format of the data coming from the instrument, and characteristics of the graphical user interface to control and monitor the instrument. The IRC framework allows the users to define a data analysis pipeline which converts data coming out of the instrument. The data can be used in visualizations in order for the user to assess the data in real-time, if necessary. The data analysis pipeline algorithms can be supplied by the user in a variety of forms or programming languages. Although the current integration effort is targeted for the High-resolution Airborne Wideband Camera (HAWC) and the Submillimeter and Far Infrared Experiment (SAFIRE), first-light instruments of the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA), the framework is designed to be generic and extensible so that it can be applied to any instrument. Plans are underway to test the framework with other types of instruments, such as remote sensing earth science instruments.

Ames, Troy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BEAST: Expanding Sustainable Data Infrastructure for High-Enthalpy Facilities

Reproducible, data-driven thermal protection system (TPS) research requires that experimental records from high-enthalpy testing be consistently structured, traceable, and accessible across campaigns and institutions. In practice, however, arcjet and plasma facilities data remain largely fragmented: raw diagnostics are stored in ad hoc formats, material sample histories are disconnected from test conditions, and metadata standards are absent, precluding systematic cross-campaign analysis and long-term reuse. BEAST (Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability) is an open-source, web-based platform that addresses these limitations by providing a unified, queryable infrastructure for high-enthalpy ground-test data [1]. First presented at the 15th Ablation Workshop [2], BEAST has since undergone significant development. The platform ingests and structures multi-channel time-series diagnostics, facility configurations, and material property records within a common provenance model, ensuring end-to-end traceability from raw sensor acquisition to reduced experimental quantities. A versioned material library links specimen identity and processing history to the specific runs in which each sample was tested. An integrated modeling workbench enables training and evaluation of regression models directly on archived experimental data, supporting condition interpolation and the construction of empirical material response databases. Beyond its original deployment at NASA Ames Research Center, BEAST has been designed to be facility-agnostic, with ongoing efforts to extend its adoption to other facilities. Its modular architecture accommodates heterogeneous diagnostic setups and facility types, and its future open-source distribution allows institutions to build on a common data standard rather than maintaining isolated, bespoke solutions. BEAST is further integrated within a broader ecosystem of companion tools: arcjetCV [3] extracts recession rates and shock standoff distances from high-speed video using computer vision, and miniSTARscan [4] provides sub-minute, portable photogrammetric surface reconstruction of test articles before and after exposure. All tools share a common data schema, enabling seamless ingestion of surface geometry, imagery, and time-series data into a single, coherent experimental record.

Database↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BEAST: Expanding Sustainable Data Infrastructure for High-Enthalpy Facilities

Database↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental and data-driven characterization of window-induced air leakage in residential buildings

Windows contributes up to 40% of envelope heat losses and around 9% of total building energy consumption due to air leakage. In the U.S., 48 million homes still use single-pane windows. Although the U.S. has an estimated 1.4 billion windows in its building stock and about 24 million windows are installed annually, only around 29 million individual window replacements (∼2%) occur each year. To address this gap, this study generates empirical evidence by (1) evaluating the contribution of windows to whole-building air leakage in 20 residential buildings using blower door tests before and after window replacement and (2) assessing whether building and window characteristics influence the measured change. Most simulation studies assume that replacing windows not only lowers the U-factor but also reduces air leakage by 10–20%. However, this assumption lacks empirical validation, highlighting the need for experimental analysis of air leakage specifically associated with windows. Using blower door tests in accordance with ASTM E779–19, the results indicated an average reduction in air infiltration of 6.1% within the range of 0.5–19.30% across all buildings and no significant correlations were found between air leakage improvements and any building/window characteristics. This research aims to help homeowners, and energy modelers to provide empirical data on importance of upgrading to more energy-efficient windows, supporting energy-efficient building standards.

Air leakage↗

NASA NTRS2010

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Zhang, Xiaodong↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

What Factors Drive the Changes in Water Withdrawals in the U.S. Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industries between 1995 and 2010?

Climate change and increasing world population will directly impact the global food supply chain linkages. In the United States, agricultural production requires less irrigated water than before but it still accounts for a third of total water withdrawals. To better understand the evolution of its water use, we perform a structural decomposition analysis of water withdrawals across eight different crops and six livestock categories and differentiate the trends over 1995–2005 vs 2005–2010 to account for the role of the economic crisis in the second period. Based on USGS data, the results show that both periods experienced an overall decline in water withdrawals in the production of all crops except oilseeds. This trend is driven by a decrease in water intensity, reflecting greater efficiency of irrigation systems, and by reduced local per capita income in the second period. However, increased foreign demand for water-intensive sectors like oilseeds from NAFTA and Asian partners mitigated the decline. Results indicate also a decreasing water use in livestock production partially due to a shift from red to white meat consumption in the country. Arguably, recent tariff wars and border closures have greatly reduced the virtual water embodied in American exports.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials

To close the gap between the rates of computational screening and experimental realization of novel materials, we introduce the A-Lab, an autonomous laboratory for the solid-state synthesis of inorganic powders. This platform uses computations, historical data from the literature, machine learning (ML) and active learning to plan and interpret the outcomes of experiments performed using robotics. Over 17 days of continuous operation, the A-Lab realized 41 novel compounds from a set of 58 targets including a variety of oxides and phosphates that were identified using large-scale ab initio phase-stability data from the Materials Project and Google DeepMind. Synthesis recipes were proposed by natural-language models trained on the literature and optimized using an active-learning approach grounded in thermodynamics. Analysis of the failed syntheses provides direct and actionable suggestions to improve current techniques for materials screening and synthesis design. The high success rate demonstrates the effectiveness of artificial-intelligence-driven platforms for autonomous materials discovery and motivates further integration of computations, historical knowledge and robotics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimates of the wavenumber wavelet power spectrum of magnetic fluctuations during magnetic reconnection

Fluctuation analyses of experimental observations generally lack high temporal resolution and are in frequency-space f, contrary to theoretical efforts in wavenumber-space k. This is due to the inherent limits of the Fourier transform, though it is prominent due to the ease of diagnostic implementation. Advances in wavelet-based analysis have provided relief due to its temporal resolution, but in its common use, is still hard to compare to theoretical models. By using the two-point correlation technique in conjunction with large data sets, a wavelet power spectrum in wavenumber-space can be created. Dubbed the wavenumber wavelet power spectrum, this spectrum relates wavenumber to power in time. Further, this analysis technique more closely connects characterizations of experimentally observed fluctuations with other system parameters and theoretical predictions. In this article, we develop the wavenumber wavelet power spectrum using magnetic fluctuations caused by tearing instability driven magnetic reconnection in reproducible, high temperature laboratory plasmas. These dynamic magnetic fluctuations generated in reversed field pinch plasmas are broadband, ranging from the low frequency, 10's of kHz, up to the ion gyroradii frequencies, 100's of kHz. The dominant fluctuations have poloidal and toroidal mode numbers (m,n)=(1,6−10) and can grow to 2%–3% of the mean magnetic field. During these reconnection events, ions, and electrons are energized, magnetic fluctuation amplitudes increase, plasma flow is halted, and the toroidal magnetic flux increases, all on a semi-periodic basis. The newly developed spectrum provides better temporal resolution of spectrum characteristics to correlate with these particle energization phenomena.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The growth of density perturbations in the last ~10 billion years from tomographic large-scale structure data

In order to investigate the origin of the ongoing tension between the amplitude of matter fluctuations measured by weak lensing experiments at low redshifts and the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, we reconstruct the evolution of this amplitude from z ~ 2 using existing large-scale structure data. To do so, we decouple the linear growth of density inhomogeneities from the background expansion, and constrain its redshift dependence making use of a combination of 6 different data sets, including cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB lensing. We analyze these data under a consistent harmonic-space angular power spectrum-based pipeline. We show that current data constrain the amplitude of fluctuations mostly in the range 0.2 < z < 0.7, where it is lower than predicted by . This difference is mostly driven by current cosmic shear data, although the growth histories reconstructed from different data combinations are consistent with each other, and we find no evidence of systematic deviations in any particular experiment. In spite of the tension with , the data are well-described by the model, albeit with a lower value of S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 . As part of our analysis, we find constraints on this parameter of S 8 = 0.7781 ± 0.0094 (68% confidence level), reaching almost percent-level errors comparable with CMB measurements, and 3.4σ away from the value found by .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Event Detection of Power Systems Based on Unequal-Interval Reduction of PMU Data and Local Outlier Factor

With the deployment of phasor measurement units (PMU) and wide area measurement system (WAMS), it is feasible to have an insight into the events occurred in power systems based on measured data. Thus, a novel data-driven algorithm based on local outlier factor (LOF) is proposed in this work to detect and locate events in power systems using reduced PMU data. First, the unequal-interval reduction method is presented to reduce the scale of PMU data in sub-stations and reconstruct it in master station of WAMS, which can relieve the burden of communication systems. Then, principle component analysis (PCA)-based similarity search method is proposed to measure the differences of operation state between any two buses. Next, LOF is presented to detect the abnormal events in power systems, and employed to determine the region of the event source. Finally, six cases from the Western electricity coordinating council (WECC) 179-bus power system, a case from the South China power system (SCPS), and a case from the Guangdong power system (GDPS) are utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Overall, the results show that proposed algorithm is effective and can be applied to event detection, event location, and online monitoring, which can enhance the situation awareness ability of power system operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Algal Biomass Conversion to Fuels via Combined Algae Processing (CAP): 2020 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is an essential activity for platform research conducted under the Bioenergy Technologies Office. It allows for the impact of research progress to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall biofuel production process for a particular biomass processing pathway, whether based on terrestrial or algal biomass feedstocks. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance, and progress can be tracked towards out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate economically viable biofuel technologies. NREL's algae state of technology benchmarking efforts focus both on front-end algal biomass production and separately on back-end conversion to fuels through NREL's "combined algae processing" (CAP) pathway. The production model is based on outdoor long-term cultivation data, enabled by comprehensive algal biomass production trials conducted under the Development of Integrated Screening, Cultivar Optimization, and Verification Research consortium (DISCOVR) efforts, driven by data furnished by Arizona State University (ASU) at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) testbed site. The CAP model is based on experimental efforts conducted under NREL research and development projects. This report focuses on back-end conversion of algal biomass through the CAP pathway, highlighting the 2020 updates to minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Notably, this analysis marks the first time that polyurethane (PU) is included as a value-added coproduct in the SOT case. Relative to prior 2019 benchmarks, the 2020 CAP SOT achieved further MFSP reductions of over $4/gallon gasoline equivalent, reflective of (a) the inclusion of PU co-production, (b) reduced SOT biomass production costs, and (c) higher pretreatment sugar yield data.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗