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DOE OSTI2022

Costs of symmetric strategic games with defenses

A companion note discusses the crisis stability of symmetric offensive missile forces. This note extends the analysis to include symmetric defensive forces. It derives Nash equilibrium optimal missile defenses, which are used to study the impact of varying defenses on strike costs and stability. It treats the option to strike first as a random decision by nature, which is consistent with previous experience and provides a rational basis for interaction and deterrence without which the study of stability is vacuous.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Residual estimation for grid modification in wall-modeled large eddy simulation using unstructured high-order methods

Here, the accuracy and computational cost of a large eddy simulation are highly dependent on the computational grid. Building optimal grids manually from a priori knowledge is not feasible in most practical use cases; instead, solution-adaptive strategies can provide a robust and cost-efficient method to generate a grid with the desired accuracy. We adapt the residual estimation algorithm developed by Toosi and Larsson for Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements Methods (DGSEM) to guide the grid-adaptation process. The core of the method is the computation of the estimated modeling residual using the polynomial basis functions used in DGSEM, and the averaging of the estimated residual over each element. The final method is assessed in multiple channel flow test cases and for the transonic flow over an airfoil, in both cases making use of mortar interfaces between elements with hanging nodes. The method is found to be robust and reliable, and to provide solutions on grids with significantly fewer elements at comparable accuracy compared to when using human-generated grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum-Cutting Luminescent Coatings for High-Efficiency, Low-Cost Solar Cells (Final Technical Report)

The objective of the project is to optimize the deposition and post-deposition annealing conditions of quantum-cutting materials to enable coatings with high photoluminescence quantum yields and optimal absorption onset. These coatings will be integrated with commercial solar photovoltaic cells to enable improved power conversion efficiency, and the quantum-cutting cell stability will be ensured using industry-standard packaging methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

2022 System Optimization Awardee: XFlow Energy Company

Vertical-axis wind turbines offer several cost-saving advantages over traditional horizontal-axis wind turbines, including lower blade manufacturing costs and a simpler mechanical design. Unfortunately, until now, vertical configurations have not been able to match the power production and durability of more conventional horizontal-axis models. XFlow Energy Company (XFlow Energy) plans to improve the design and reduce the production costs of its 25-kilowatt (kW) vertical-axis wind turbine, delivering a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with that of U.S. retail electricity generated by coal-fired power plants. XFlow Energy's efficient turbine also is designed to maximize power production and longevity. Two previous Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) awards funded XFlow Energy's development of a 10-meter vertical-axis turbine prototype.

CIP↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization-Inspired Pin-Fin Array for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Recuperator

Additively manufactured heat exchangers are one possible route to cost-effective sCO 2 power cycles. In this paper, experimental results are obtained for two helical pin fin tubes that were designed following parametric optimization of the fin array. Neither the numerical optimization nor the experimental testing have been previously reported in the literature. The two tube designs were, (1) the optimization inspired design, and (2) the optimization-inspired design with a fin diameter increased by a factor of 2. To characterize the print, the designs were scanned using X-ray computed tomography to measure feature sizes and heat transfer area. The optimization was conducted in a commercial, computational fluid dynamics code. The code solved the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and energy equations with turbulence closure provided by the shear stress transport (SST) k-ω model. In the experiments, the Nusselt number augmentation was measured using the Wilson plot technique and the friction factor was determined with mass flow and pressure drop measurements. The experimental testing indicated that the optimization-inspired design had a friction factor that was four times less than the baseline tube design at equal Nusselt number. Additionally, the optimization-inspired design had a 14% improvement in Nusselt number, at equal friction factor, relative to the best performing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) trial points. Tube design (2), with the larger diameter pin fins, had similar performance, within experimental error, as the tube with the smaller diameter pin fins (1). Both tubes achieved overall fin array efficiencies near 1. A performance factor, V/V 0 , equal to the volume of the enhanced heat exchanger divided by the volume of the baseline (no-fins) heat exchanger, is recommended to quantify internal cooling performance. In conclusion, the experimental shell and tube heat exchanger, using the additively manufactured tube, is competitive with printed circuit heat exchangers in its pressure drop class and could be further improved by optimizing a shell-and-tube heat exchanger utilizing this heat transfer enhancement feature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based intelligent maintenance optimization framework for safety-critical systems

Abstract Maintenance optimization is a process for improving the efficiency of maintenance strategies and activities, considering various aspects of the target system and components, such as the probabilities of system failures and the cost of repair and replacement of a failed component. The improvement of maintenance optimization algorithms generally requires information from various data sources. For example, it may require the system risk information derived from risk analysis tools or the residual lifetime of a component from fault prognosis tools. The requirements of data acquisition (DAQ) and aggregation pose new challenges for maintenance management systems (MMSs) that implement and use these maintenance optimization algorithms. This paper proposes a multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based framework to facilitate DAQ from MMSs, online monitoring systems, fault detection and discrimination tools, risk assessment tools, decision-making tools, and component identification tools, and accelerate the implementation and verification of contemporary maintenance optimization models and algorithms. The proposed framework consists of a multi-aspect maintenance ontology with critical information for maintenance optimization and application interfaces for collecting information from various data sources, such as fault prognosis tools, online monitoring tools, risk assessment tools, and decision-making algorithms. In addition, this paper proposes a heuristic method for integrating concepts and properties from other existing ontologies into the proposed framework when the existing ontology is not fully compatible with the ontology under construction. Finally, the paper verifies the proposed ontology framework using a feedwater system designed for nuclear power plants with valves and filters as the components under maintenance.

Diao, Xiaoxu (ORCID:0000000346726352)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Calibrating Constant Elasticity of Substitution Technologies to Bottom-up Cost Estimates

We propose a method for calibrating an industry-level technology to engineering (bottom-up) estimates with a particular focus on abatement opportunities. As a demonstration, substitution elasticities across inputs are adjusted in the nested cost function for the electricity sector to best fit a target marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived from engineering assessments of available technologies. Elasticities are optimized over an entire relevant range of the MAC, whereas current techniques use local point estimates under little or no abatement. In the context of fitting to a given MAC we evaluate alternative nesting structures and find that, while complexity in nesting improves the fit, even relatively simple nesting structures can reasonably approximate the target MAC. In our example, focused on the electricity sector, we find standard elasticities adopted in top-down models moderately overstate abatement costs relative to the engineering targets. In our preferred specification the most important adjustment is to escalate the substitution elasticity between energy and value-added inputs. This is consistent with an argument that the current set of point estimates fail to properly account for new capital-based technologies. These conclusions, however, are sensitive to our assumption about output-intensity abatement and consumer price responsiveness, both of which are not delineated in engineering estimates.

abatement cost↗

DOE OSTI2022

Critical Analysis of Replacements for R-410A in Heat Pump Applications

Using low-GWP refrigerants can reduce the Green House Gas (GHG) emission of HVAC systems. Research has shown that using heat exchangers with small diameter tubes is a promising solution to meet the performance goals of heat pump using low-GWP refrigerants due to reduced refrigerant charge, reduced flammable impact and environmental impact. However, application of small diameter tube requires in-depth component design optimization to make the new system adapt to low-GWP refrigerants.In this paper, multi-objective optimizations using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm on a R-410A residential 5-ton air source heat pump is performed for improved system performance and reduced material cost. Five R-410A alternatives, i.e., R-32, R-454A, R-454B, R-454C and R-455A are investigated. R-455A and R-454C have GWP lower than 150. As a result of optimization, 12.4%-19.1% Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER) improvement and up to 71% HXs material cost saving is achieved. Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) analysis shows that optimized systems reduce total CO2 emission by 13%-33% depending on the choice of refrigerant and climate zone.The optimal heat exchangers resulting from this research can fit into the original R-410A fan-coil units. The proposed heat pump design method establishes a production and installation path to produce cost-effective low-GWP heat pumps easily accepted by end users.

Li, Zhenning↗

DOE OSTI2024

CFD and systems engineering to minimize membrane-based carbon capture costs

In this study, we propose a superstructure for membrane-based carbon capture, addressing these challenges through the formulation of an optimization problem. The case study considers a flue gas with a flowrate of 1000 mol/s and a 30 % CO2 (molar basis), which is representative of steel plants. Reduced models, derived from rigorous CFD simulations of membrane modules, are utilized to enhance the efficiency of the optimization process. The reduced model includes specific input variables such as inlet flow rate, retentate and permeate pressures, and inlet CO2 concentration; while the CO2 recovery and purity in the permeate side are considered as output variables. In this way, we exploit the information from the CFD simulations in the superstructure, aiding in the selection of the optimal configuration for the multi-stage membrane process. The results underscore the efficiency of a multi-stage membrane design, showing capture costs around 45 $/t-CO2.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impact of Off-Design CHP Performance on the Optimal Sizing and Dispatch on Hybrid Renewable-CHP Distributed Energy Resources

The maturation of distributed energy resources (DER) has prompted the exploration of their deployment in commercial building applications due to their potential to supply energy at lower costs and emissions rates compared to centralized generation. While several software tools exist for evaluating the techno-economic potential of integrated renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) systems for distributed generation applications, many suffer from poor accuracy in capturing off-design (part load and changes in ambient air temperature and pressure) performance characteristics of microturbines, combustion turbines, or internal combustion engines. Thus, this paper presents a methodology for integrating these off-design characteristics in the mixed-integer linear program within REopt, a hybrid DER screening tool. The economic impact of the CHP off-design performance is observed through several application studies of various hybrid system configurations in different climates. Each study indicates how CHP off-design performance influences optimal sizing and dispatch decisions and therefore overall system economic value. We observe through case studies that modeling without the off-design effects, depending on the CHP prime mover and site, can result in Net Present Value predictions of hybrid systems that can be overoptimistic in frequently hot climates (up to 52%), too conservative in frequently cold climates (up to 11%), or unaffected (+/-1%) in temperate climates. Cases also highlight several advantages of hybrid systems relative to non-hybrid systems such as total economic value and the systems' ability to mitigate potentially negative consequences attributed to off-design performance.

ambient de-rate↗

DOE OSTI2024

Communication Lower Bounds and Optimal Algorithms for Multiple Tensor-Times-Matrix Computation

Multiple tensor-times-matrix (Multi-TTM) is a key computation in algorithms for computing and operating with the Tucker tensor decomposition, which is frequently used in multidimensional data analysis. Here, we establish communication lower bounds that determine how much data movement is required (under mild conditions) to perform the Multi-TTM computation in parallel. The crux of the proof relies on analytically solving a constrained, nonlinear optimization problem. We also present a parallel algorithm to perform this computation that organizes the processors into a logical grid with twice as many modes as the input tensor. We show that, with correct choices of grid dimensions, the communication cost of the algorithm attains the lower bounds and is therefore communication optimal. Finally, we show that our algorithm can significantly reduce communication compared to the straightforward approach of expressing the computation as a sequence of tensor-times-matrix operations when the input and output tensors vary greatly in size.

HBL-inequalities↗

DOE OSTI2021

Substation-Level Grid Topology Optimization Using Bus Splitting

Operations of substation circuit breakers are important for maintenance needs and topology reconfiguration in power systems. Bus splitting is one type of topology change where the two bus bars at a substation can become electrically disconnected under certain actions of circuit breakers. Because these events involve detailed substation modeling, they are typically not considered in routine power system operation and control. In this paper, an improved substation-level topology optimization framework is developed by expanding traditional line switching decisions by breaker-level bus splitting, which can further reduce grid congestion and generation costs. A tight McCormick relaxation is proposed to reformulate the bilinear terms in the resultant optimization problem to linear inequality constraints. Thus, a tractable mixed-integer linear program reformulation is attained that allows for efficient solutions in real-time operations. Numerical studies on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems demonstrate the computational performance and economic benefits of the proposed topology optimization approach.

bus split↗

DOE OSTI2025

Factorization Machine‐Based Active Learning for Functional Materials Design with Optimal Initial Data

The optimization of functional materials is important to enhance their properties, but their complex geometries pose great challenges to optimization. Data-driven algorithms efficiently navigate such complex design spaces by learning relationships between material structures and performance metrics to discover high-performance functional materials. Surrogate-based active learning, continually improving its surrogate model by iteratively including high-quality data points, has emerged as a cost-effective data-driven approach. Furthermore, it can be coupled with quantum computing to enhance optimization processes, especially when paired with a special form of surrogate model (i.e., quadratic unconstrained binary optimization), formulated by factorization machine (FM). However, current practices often overlook the variability in design space sizes when determining the initial data size for optimization. In this work, we investigate the optimal initial data sizes required for efficient convergence across various design space sizes. By employing averaged piecewise linear regression, we identify initiation points where convergence begins, highlighting the crucial role of employing adequate initial data in achieving efficient optimization. These results contribute to the efficient optimization of functional materials by ensuring faster convergence and reducing computational costs in FM-based active learning.

active learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Process-Microstructure-Property Relationships in Low Heat Input Wire-Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) of Ni-Based Superalloy Haynes 282

Conference presentation on WAAM process optimization on Ni-based superalloy Haynes® 282®. This alloy is targeted for advanced power generation systems for its superior high temperature mechanical properties. Wire-arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) offers attractive cost and materials savings with high deposition rates. Based on initial build process optimization, WAAM blocks were made, and screened for defects using high-throughput CT scanning. The microstructural evolution in arc energy range of 250-700 J/mm was characterized in the as-built and aged conditions, using electron microscopy. Results showed self-consistent microstructure across conditions, with grain size dependence on arc energy, MC and M6C carbides in as-built, and blocky grain boundary M23C6 in as-heat-treated condition. Further reductions in as-built porosity were explored through 20+ combinations of H2 and CO2 additions to shielding gas. Initial results show improved wetting behavior, and bead overlap with up to 1% H2 and up to 0.25% CO2. Combination of experimentally determined datasets provided comprehensive understanding of process-structure-property relationships in WAAM Haynes 282.

Haynes 282↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Marine energy supported multi-energy system planning and operation optimization for sustainable coastal community

The growing need for sustainable energy solutions in coastal areas necessitates the development of integrated systems that leverage abundant marine resources. In this study, a standalone Marine Energy Supported Multi-Energy System (MRE-MES) is designed for sustainable coastal community development, utilizing renewable marine resources, including offshore wind, wave, and solar energy, to address the energy needs of electricity, heat, freshwater, and hydrogen. The proposed MRE-MES incorporates a co-optimization model that simultaneously balances capacity planning and operational efficiency to minimize costs and environmental impacts. The system is tested under different renewable energy penetration levels and demand uncertainties, using a two-stage stochastic programming to account for variability in renewable resources and consumption needs. The experimental results indicate that in the optimal system capacity configuration, the percentage of total renewable energy generation is around 80 %, with or without capacity limitation constraints on PV, water tank, and hydrogen storage. Compared to the worst-case scenario in Monte Carlo experiments, two-stage stochastic optimization results in a more robust decision that effectively mitigates the risks posed by future uncertain demand conditions. In conclusion, the findings highlight the viability of marine energy for providing a resilient, comprehensive energy solution to coastal communities.

Capacity planning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Flexible Fully-Decoupled Nuclear Plants with Thermal Energy Storage - Technoeconomic Optimization

New nuclear power plants may be one of the technologies for future zero carbon electricity production. These future systems will however also need significant flexibility to cope with fluctuating demand and large share of intermittent renewable supply, rather than running in conventional baseload generation. The present work explores the use of thermal energy storage (TES) as a buffer between the reactor heat and its conversion to electricity, enabling flexible operation of nuclear plants. The focus is on maximizing flexibility, ideally as full decoupling of the nuclear and power cycle islands, as well as on system efficiency in various modes. A system design presented for a high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) presents a slightly complex solution, as separate high- and low-temperature TES systems are required in order to cover the extended temperature range. Although this configuration imposes certain limitations on the discharge system configuration, it also presents the opportunity to design a more efficient system. For this case in particular, a steam reheat cycle is advantageous. Dynamic models were developed for the decoupled system in order to generate insights into aspects of off design operation and system control. A technoeconomic analysis, furthermore, provides sizing and costing of the component, followed by size and dispatch economic optimization considering energy arbitrage. This optimization shows that in all explored markets, the addition of TES system with the proposed configuration results in positive impact on project net present value. Further sensitivity analyses show impact of multiple inputs and possible technical limitations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multigrid Optimization for Large-Scale Ptychographic Phase Retrieval

Ptychography is a popular imaging technique that combines diffractive imaging with scanning microscopy. The technique consists of a coherent beam that is scanned across an object in a series of overlapping positions, leading to reliable and improved reconstructions. Ptychographic microscopes allow for large fields to be imaged at high resolution at the cost of additional computational expense. Herein, we propose a multigrid-based optimization framework to reduce the computational burdens of large-scale ptychographic phase retrieval. Our proposed method exploits the inherent hierarchical structures in ptychography through tailored restriction and prolongation operators for the object and data domains. Our numerical results show that our proposed scheme accelerates the convergence of its underlying solver and outperforms the ptychographical iterative engine, a workhorse in the optics community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗