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DOE OSTI2024

Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting with Constrained Regressors

The volatility of electricity price presents a challenge to market participants as their decision-making process are highly depend on the accuracy of price forecasts. However, there is growing empirical evidence of increasing price volatility and price spikes in electricity markets as a result of variable renewable energy generation, extreme weather events, and other factors. The distribution shift caused by spikes in electricity price data differentiates the forecasting tasks from other renewable energy sources. Moreover, the observations may be compromised by cyberattacks and thus not available in the testing phase. To this end, we propose a Similarity-Enhanced Electricity Decomposition Forecasting model (SEED-Forecaster) to address the missing response problem and spikes capturing in short-term electricity price forecasting. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on real-world electricity price data from California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed SEED-Forecsater can enhance forecasting performance, particularly in capturing electricity spikes, even under conditions without regressors during testing stage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Final Scientific Technical Report for "Microgrid RD&D and Testing of PIDC and PWD Systems"

Alstom Grid Inc’s (ALSTOM Grid) Research Design and Development (RD&D) project, “Microgrid RD&D and Testing for PIDC and PWD” was conducted in partnership with Philadelphia Industrial Development Corporation (PIDC) in its role as owner’s representative and manager of a vibrant commercial and industrial community, involving critical loads in one of the nation’s largest unregulated, non-military electric distribution systems. PIDC needed to develop solutions to address the planned considerable growth in Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Combined Heat Plan (CHP), Renewables, Distributed Generation (DG), Demand Response (DR) and Storage. In supporting the corporate objective, PIDC needed a new class of control systems for achieving enhanced energy resilience of their critical infrastructure operation during adverse conditions together with carbon emission reduction and optimization of the overall system operation economics through system energy efficiency during normal and emergency operating conditions. Additionally, PIDC anticipated the need to support a new class of commercial agreements with tenants, such as those for Urban Outfitters, for guaranteed one hundred percent (100%) grid resilience and electric power supply in case of utility outage conditions. The project was designed to address the challenges for the commercial & industrial (C&I) communities. But more importantly, the project included development of scalable and replicable solutions intended to target a multitude of the nation’s electric distribution communities. The project researched and developed a fully comprehensive prototype consisting of microgrid operation and control functions including islanding, synchronization and reconnection, protection, voltage, frequency, and power quality management, dispatch, and system resiliency. The project provided the foundation required to significantly enhance the overall national objectives set by the DOE for energy resilience, emission reduction and system energy efficiency improvement, including protection of critical infrastructure and public resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Frequency Signature-Based Fault Detection for Future MV Distribution Grids

Increasing penetration levels of inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) impact the legacy distribution system protection. Inverter based DERs provide approximately 1.2-2 pu fault current. In systems with high penetration of inverter based DERs, it is difficult for over-current based protection schemes to differentiate between normal loading conditions and a fault. Directional, distance, and adaptive forms of protection schemes are also affected by low fault currents. This paper analyzes fault generated traveling wave (TW) based high-frequency signatures in the distribution system. In order to simulate such signatures, frequency-dependent distributed parameter line modeling approach is used in this research work to represent distribution lines and underground cables. Modified IEEE 13-bus medium voltage test system is modeled in electromagnetic transient simulation tool and multiple transient scenarios are simulated in this test system. The results are analyzed to understand the high-frequency signatures that can be used to detect and locate faults under high penetration of DERs.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Frequency Signature-Based Fault Detection for Future MV Distribution Grids

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microstructural investigation of PBX 9501: Comparing wet slurry and resonant acoustic mixing techniques

The microstructure of a high explosive (HE) material directly influences the reactive behavior under a variety of insults. Furthermore, the preparation method of polymer-bonded explosives (PBX), as well as the constituent material particle size distribution and consolidation parameters, will dominate the microstructural features that are observed. Here, we compare batches of PBX 9501 prepared by the typical wet slurry process and those prepared by resonant acoustic mixing. The “prills” produced by the wet slurry process leads to an inherently different microstructure than the coated powder produced by resonant acoustic mixing. Additionally, we observed that the conditions required to consolidate (press) the material to the nominal PBX 9501 density varied depending on the preparation technique, which also dictates the observed binder distribution. Furthermore, X-ray microcomputed tomography and ultra-small-angle X-ray scattering analyses revealed distinct differences in the void structure and distribution.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

HydroDCM: Hydrological Domain-Conditioned Modulation for Cross-Reservoir Inflow Prediction

Deep learning models have shown promise in reservoir inflow prediction, yet their performance often deteriorates when applied to different reservoirs due to distributional differences, referred to as the domain shift problem. Domain generalization (DG) solutions aim to address this issue by extracting domain-invariant representations that mitigate errors in unseen domains. However, in hydrological settings, each reservoir exhibits unique inflow patterns, while some metadata beyond observations like spatial information exerts indirect but significant influence. This mismatch limits the applicability of conventional DG techniques to many-domain hydrological systems. To overcome these challenges, we propose HydroDCM, a scalable DG framework for cross-reservoir inflow forecasting. Spatial metadata of reservoirs is used to construct pseudo-domain labels that guide adversarial learning of invariant temporal features. During inference, HydroDCM adapts these features through light-weight conditioning layers informed by the target reservoir’s metadata, reconciling DG’s invariance with location-specific adaptation. Experiment results on 30 real-world reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art DG baselines under many-domain conditions and remains computationally efficient.

Hu, Pengfei [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000367130950)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Surrogate Suspension-Resuspension Study

The objective of this study was to conduct a series of tests looking at the deposition and resuspension of aerosol particles deposited onto multiple representative substrate surfaces for a range of particle sizes under varying environmental conditions. The benefit of this study is to provide additional insight into the understanding of early time resuspension from different mechanisms and compare to existing literature. The resuspension methods utilized in this study were full-scale and the substrates were representative of real- world ground level conditions. Multiple experiments were conducted to assess the impact on resuspension from the varying substrates and mechanisms. The results of this study show variations in the size distribution of aerosol as a function of height from the source resuspension factors. Additionally, the aerosolized mass concentration and resuspension factor were evaluated. The maximum resuspension factor was found to be on the order of 10 -4 m -1 which is higher than most resuspension factors found in literature but represents idealized conditions due to the well constrained experimental setup.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

The distribution and selective decontamination of carbon-14 from nuclear graphite

This work investigates 14 C release behaviour from UK Magnox reactor sourced irradiated graphite under relatively low temperature oxidation conditions: a 1% oxygen in argon atmosphere at temperatures ranging from 600°C to 700°C, and durations from 4 to 120 hours. A method is used for construction of a detailed 14 C release profile with mass loss. The 14 C release profile is predictable between samples, and an empirical release profile is derived to predict releases to higher mass losses than in this work. An accelerated 14 C release rate at small mass losses is observed, indicative of a 14 C-enriched surface region with a depleting concentration gradient into the material, and the source terms and complexities associated with predicting where the 14 C arose from are discussed. Selective decontamination of a fraction of the 14 C is possible, with the limitation of a reducing efficiency with mass loss and time. This work demonstrates a method for determining the distribution of 14 C between near-surface regions and the bulk material in differing sources of irradiated graphite, and provides data in support of making an informed assessment for the adoption of low temperature thermal treatment and isotopic reduction of irradiated graphite wastes.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermoelectric air conditioning undergarment for personal thermal management and HVAC energy saving

Personal thermal management systems (PTMS) are highly desirable for improving individual thermal comfort and reducing indoor HVAC energy consumption. Although there have been many attempts in developing PTMS, existing PTMS are generally bulky, heavy or immobile. Besides, previous analysis on additional personal cooling and heating power required for maintaining thermal comfort in changing environments did not consider the individual difference in metabolism and the variability of comfort skin temperature with environmental conditions. In this paper, we report on the development of a novel lightweight (<1 kg) thermoelectric air conditioning undergarment system with a preferred design of branching tubing network (branching angle of 60° and diameter ratio of 0.782) for air distribution. Through thermal manikin and human subject tests, we demonstrated that the novel system is capable of providing a maximum of 15.5 W of personal cooling and 18.1 W personal heating with a coefficient of performance (COP) greater than 0.4, which is sufficient to the expansion of the indoor set-points by at least 2.2 °C (4 °F) on both sides without compromising thermal comfort and the potential saving of about 15% HVAC energy. Furthermore, our study improved the understanding of the required additional personal cooling and heating power for changing environmental conditions, which are essential guidelines for the further development of PTMS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

An immersed interface method for the 2D vorticity-velocity Navier-Stokes equations with multiple bodies

We present an immersed interface method for the vorticity-velocity form of the 2D Navier Stokes equations that directly addresses challenges posed by nonconvex immersed bodies, multiply connected domains, and the calculation of force distributions on immersed surfaces. The immersed interface method is re-interpreted as a polynomial extrapolation of flow quantities and boundary conditions into the immersed solid bodies, reducing computational cost and enabling simulations with nonconvex bodies that could not be discretized with previous immersed interface methods. In the flow, the vorticity transport equation is discretized using a conservative finite difference scheme and explicit Runge-Kutta time integration. The velocity reconstruction problem is transformed to a scalar Poisson equation that is discretized with conservative finite differences, and solved using an FFT-accelerated iterative algorithm. The use of conservative differencing throughout leads to exact enforcement of a discrete Kelvin's theorem, allowing for simulations with multiply connected domains and outflow boundaries that have challenged other immersed interface vortex methods. We also explore novel methods for recovering time-dependent pressure distributions on immersed bodies within a vorticity-based method and present a novel control volume formulation for recovering aerodynamic moments from only the vorticity and velocity fields. The method achieves second order spatial accuracy and third order temporal accuracy, and is validated on a variety of 2D flows in internal and free-space domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The revised FLORIDyn model: implementation of heterogeneous flow and the Gaussian wake

In this paper, a new version of the FLOw Redirection and Induction Dynamics (FLORIDyn) model is presented. The new model uses the three-dimensional parametric Gaussian FLORIS model and can provide dynamic wind farm simulations at a low computational cost under heterogeneous and changing wind conditions. Both FLORIS and FLORIDyn are parametric models which can be used to simulate wind farms, evaluate controller performance and can serve as a control-oriented model. One central element in which they differ is in their representation of flow dynamics: FLORIS neglects these and provides a computationally very cheap approximation of the mean wind farm flow. FLORIDyn defines a framework which utilizes this low computational cost of FLORIS to simulate basic wake dynamics. This is achieved by creating so-called observation points (OPs) at each time step at the rotor plane which inherit the turbine state. In this work, we develop the initial FLORIDyn framework further considering multiple aspects. The underlying FLORIS wake model is replaced by a Gaussian wake model. The distribution and characteristics of the OPs are adapted to account for the new parametric model but also to take complex flow conditions into account. To achieve this, a mathematical approach is developed to combine the parametric model and the changing, heterogeneous world conditions and link them with each OP. We also present a computationally lightweight wind field model to allow for a simulation environment in which heterogeneous flow conditions are possible. FLORIDyn is compared to Simulator for Offshore Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) simulations in three- and nine-turbine cases under static and changing environmental conditions. The results show a good agreement with the timing of the impact of upstream state changes on downstream turbines. They also show a good agreement in terms of how wakes are displaced by wind direction changes and when the resulting velocity deficit is experienced by downstream turbines. A good fit of the mean generated power is ensured by the underlying FLORIS model. In the three-turbine case, FLORIDyn simulates 4 s simulation time in 24.49 ms computational time. The resulting new FLORIDyn model proves to be a computationally attractive and capable tool for model-based dynamic wind farm control.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Influence of the inverse sheath on divertor plasma performance in tokamak edge plasma simulations

Recently, it was shown that strong electron thermionic emission from material walls could result in the formation of an “inverse sheath”, which prevents the flow of cold ions to the wall. Such regimes look very favorably from the point of view of plasma-material interactions at the edge of magnetic fusion devices, where the problem of the erosion of plasma facing components under ion irradiation is one of the key issues for developing of future magnetic fusion reactors. However, it is not clear whether such regimes are compatible with edge plasma parameters and heat removal requirements in fusion reactors.To address the issue of practicality of the “inverse sheath” regime for edge tokamak plasma conditions, we perform a set of numerical simulations with 2D edge plasma transport code UEDGE for a DIII-D-like geometry and magnetic configuration.To describe both “standard” and “inverse sheath” conditions within the framework of the UEDGE code (which does not consider the sheath region per se), at the material surfaces, we apply effective boundary conditions which emulate both “standard” and“inverse sheath” regimes. We demonstrate that for the same input parameters, spatial distributions of edge plasma parameters corresponding to detached divertor and“inverse sheath” regimes are similar, with only a few minor differences. We discuss the compatibility of “inverse sheath” regimes with core plasma parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Root water uptake of biofuel crops revealed by coupled electrical resistivity and soil water content measurements

Abstract Biofuel crops, including annuals such as maize ( Zea mays L.), soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.], and canola ( Brassica napus L.), as well as high‐biomass perennial grasses such as miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus J.M. Greef & Deuter ex Hodkinson & Renvoiz), are candidates for sustainable alternative energy sources. However, large‐scale conversion of croplands to perennial biofuel crops could have substantial impacts on regional water, nutrient, and C cycles due to the longer growing seasons and differences in rooting systems compared with most annual crops. However, due to the limited tools available to nondestructively study the spatiotemporal patterns of root water uptake in situ at field scales, these differences in crop water use are not well known. Geophysical imaging tools such as electrical resistivity (ER) reveal changes in water content in the soil profile. In this study, we demonstrate the use of a novel coupled hydrogeophysical approach with both time domain reflectometry soil water content and ER measurements to compare root water uptake and soil properties of an annual crop rotation with the perennial grass miscanthus, across three growing seasons (2009–2011) in southwest Michigan, USA. We estimated maximum root depths to be between 1.2 and 2.2 m, with the vertical distribution of roots being notably deeper in 2009 relative to 2010 and 2011, likely due to the drought conditions during that first year. Modeled cumulative ET of both crops was underestimated (2–34%) relative to estimates obtained from soil water drawdown in prior studies but was found to be greater in the perennial grass than the annual crops, despite shallower modeled rooting depths in 2010 and 2011.

Kuhl, Alexandria S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Active and passive cooling approaches for a Southern California residential community

This study assesses cooling strategies in a low-income community in Southern California that lacks air conditioning and struggles with heat and air pollution. We used an urban building energy model and an electric distribution system model to evaluate active and passive cooling measures. The most effective space cooling measures were high-performance air-source heat pumps, cool coatings, window films, and harnessing the space cooling effect from heat pump water heaters. The results show that combining heat pump water heaters with window films and cool coatings reduces heat index hazard hours within buildings by 95 % to 99 % but increases total energy costs (equipment costs plus changes in utility bills) by 20 % to 60 % where the higher end includes building electrical upgrades. These measures also led to increased space heater use during colder months to avoid overcooling. Replacing conventional heaters with air source heat pumps eliminated unsafe indoor temperatures and reduced total energy use, but increased cost by 125 % to 150 %. In total, using heat pumps for space and water heating could reduce primary energy use by up to 57 %. The higher cost of active and passive cooling measures can be mitigated by existing and emerging incentive programs, especially those that support heat pumps. Electric distribution upgrades to support community electrification are estimated to increase utility costs by $\$$25 to $\$$40 per ratepayer per year. The results underscore the potential and challenges of adapting building infrastructure in communities at risk from climate and environmental stressors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transport of coexisting Ni-Cu sulfide liquid and silicate melt in partially molten peridotite

Transport of coexisting sulfide and silicate melts in partially molten peridotite contributes to the redistribution of chalcophile elements within the upper mantle as well as the genesis of magmatic Ni-Cu sulfide deposits, but has not been investigated systematically. Using laboratory experiments, theoretical calculations, and X-ray synchrotron microtomography, this study documents the topology and considers controls on the extraction of two immiscible liquids during partial melting of mantle peridotite. Under hydrostatic conditions, the measured dihedral angle at silicate melt-mineral-mineral junctions is 13.7–21.3°. Silicate melt is distributed along grain edges forming incompletely interconnected melt channels that disconnected by some dead ends at melt fractions ~7–9 vol%. Application of theoretically predicted permeability (k ~10 -14 -10 -16 m 2 ) permits estimation of the extraction velocity of silicate melt of 0.7-11.1 μm/day within a single interconnected melt channel. In the absence of silicate melt, isolated sulfide droplets (3.77 vol%) show a sulfide-olivine-olivine dihedral angle of 91.5–101.3°. However, in the presence of silicate melt, sulfide droplets (average size ~2.53±2.14μm, 1σ) are partially surrounded by silicate melt and stranded in triple junctions or melt pockets due to the limitation of the smallest dimension (0.3μm) of melt channels. Thus, the extraction of sulfide liquid is highly restricted by these dead ends and the smallest dimension of melt channels during porous flow of silicate melt. In contrast, during large-strain shear deformation (strain ~1.6–2.5), initially stranded sulfide droplets were elongated and extracted with silicate melt into liquid-rich sheets with a length of several hundred microns, constantly oriented at 14.3±4.5°to the shear plane and antithetic to the shear direction. The angle is lower than that (18-30°) of those sheets containing sulfide liquid only, indicating that silicate melt dominates liquid-rich sheets. Driven by stress, silicate melt-dominated liquid-rich sheets open the appropriately oriented grain boundaries between silicate minerals, thus providing an efficient pathway for the extraction of sulfide liquid during deformation. When such sheet-like channels remain open, sulfide droplets (> millimeter-scale) can be potentially mobile through high strain domains of the upper mantle, contributing to the addition of chalcophile elements and the fertilization of the lithospheric mantle.

high P-T experiment↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the proximity to macroscopic failure using local strain populations from dynamic in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Predicting the proximity of large-scale dynamic failure is a critical concern in the engineering and geophysical sciences. Here we use evolving contractive, dilatational, and shear strain deformation preceding failure in dynamic X-ray tomography experiments to examine which strain components best predict the proximity to failure. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity to failure using time series of three-dimensional local incremental strain tensor fields acquired in rock deformation experiments under stress conditions of the upper crust. Three-dimensional scans acquired in situ throughout triaxial compression experiments provide a distribution of density contrasts from which we estimate the three-dimensional incremental strain that accumulates between each scan acquisition. Training machine learning models on multiple experiments of six rock types provides suites of feature importance that indicate the predictive power of each feature. Comparing the average importance of groups of features that include information about each strain component quantifies the ability of the contractive, dilatational and shear strain to predict the proximity of macroscopic failure. A total of 24 models of four machine learning algorithms with six rock types indicate that 1) the dilatational strain provides the best predictive power of the strain components, and 2) the intermediate values (25th-75th percentile) of the strain population provide the best predictive power of the statistics of the strain populations. In addition, the success of the predictions of models trained on one rock type and tested on other rock types quantifies the similarities and differences of the precursory strain accumulation process in the six rock types. These similarities suggest the potential existence of a unified theory of brittle rock deformation for a range of rock types.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic creep model incorporating test condition, initial damage, and material property uncertainty

Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metallic Technetium Sequestration in Nickel Core/Shell Microstructure during Fe(OH)2 Transformation with Ni doping

This study investigates the impacts of Ni doping on technetium-99 (Tc) sequestration in aqueous solutions through transformation of Fe(OH)2(s) to iron spinel (magnetite) under alkaline conditions. Extensive solid characterization was performed for the mineral phases produced, as well as the Tc/Ni speciation and distribution within these phases. X-ray diffraction results show that iron spinel was the dominant mineral product without detectable Ni incorporation. The doped Ni ions mainly precipitated as fine Fe/Ni oxide/hydroxide particles, including strongly reduced nanometer?sized spheroidal Ni-rich and metallic Ni phases. High-resolution analytical scanning transmission electron microscopy using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy on the produced solid samples (focused ion beam-prepared specimens) revealed three Tc distribution domains dominated by nanocrystals and, especially, a Tc-rich metallic phase. Instances of metallic Tc were specifically found in spheroidal, Ni-rich and metallic nanoparticles exhibiting a core/shell microstructure that suggests strong reduction and sequential precipitation of Ni-Tc-Ni. Mass balance analysis showed nearly 100% Tc removal from the 4.8 × 10-4 M Tc solutions. The finding of the metallic Tc encapsulation indicates that Tc sequestration through Ni-doped Fe(OH)2(s)?to?iron spinel transformation process likely provides an alternative treatment pathway for Tc removal and could be combined into further waste treatment approaches.

Wang, Guohui↗