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SUPECA kinetics for scaling redox reactions in networks of mixed substrates and consumers and an example application to aerobic soil respiration

Abstract. Several land biogeochemical models used for studying carbon–climate feedbacks have begun explicitly representing microbial dynamics. However, to our knowledge, there has been no theoretical work on how to achieve a consistent scaling of the complex biogeochemical reactions from microbial individuals to populations, communities, and interactions with plants and mineral soils. We focus here on developing a mathematical formulation of the substrate–consumer relationships for consumer-mediated redox reactions of the form A + BE→ products, where products could be, e.g., microbial biomass or bioproducts. Under the quasi-steady-state approximation, these substrate–consumer relationships can be formulated as the computationally difficult full equilibrium chemistry problem or approximated analytically with the dual Monod (DM) or synthesizing unit (SU) kinetics. We find that DM kinetics is scaling inconsistently for reaction networks because (1) substrate limitations are not considered, (2) contradictory assumptions are made regarding the substrate processing rate when transitioning from single- to multi-substrate redox reactions, and (3) the product generation rate cannot be scaled from one to multiple substrates. In contrast, SU kinetics consistently scales the product generation rate from one to multiple substrates but predicts unrealistic results as consumer abundances reach large values with respect to their substrates. We attribute this deficit to SU's failure to incorporate substrate limitation in its derivation. To address these issues, we propose SUPECA (SU plus the equilibrium chemistry approximation – ECA) kinetics, which consistently imposes substrate and consumer mass balance constraints. We show that SUPECA kinetics satisfies the partition principle, i.e., scaling invariance across a network of an arbitrary number of reactions (e.g., as in Newton's law of motion and Dalton's law of partial pressures). We tested SUPECA kinetics with the equilibrium chemistry solution for some simple problems and found SUPECA outperformed SU kinetics. As an example application, we show that a steady-state SUPECA-based approach predicted an aerobic soil respiration moisture response function that agreed well with laboratory observations. We conclude that, as an extension to SU and ECA kinetics, SUPECA provides a robust mathematical representation of complex soil substrate–consumer interactions and can be applied to improve Earth system model (ESM) land models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of January 2005 Solar Proton Events on Chlorine Species

Sudden changes in stratospheric chlorine species in the polar northern atmosphere, caused by the Solar Proton Events (SPEs) of 17 and 20 January 2005, have been investigated and compared with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements to monitor the variability of ClO, HCl, HOCl and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounder (MIPAS) on ENVISAT to retrieve ClONO2. SPE-induced chlorine activation has been identified. HCl decrease occurred at nearly all the investigated altitudes (i.e., 10-0.5 hPa) with the strongest decrease (of about 0.25 ppbv) on 21 January. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions (with increases of more than 0.2 ppbv) whereas both HOCl and ClO enhancements (about 0.1 ppbv) have been observed at the polar night terminator. Further, small ClO decreases (of less than 0.1 ppbv) and ClONO2 enhancements (about 0.2 ppbv) have been observed at higher latitudes (i.e., at nighttime) roughly above 2 hPa. While WACCM4 reproduces most of the SPE-induced variability in the chlorine species fairly well, in some particular regions discrepancies between the modeled and measured temporal evolution of the abundances of chlorine species were found. HOCl changes are modelled very well with respect to both magnitude and geographic distribution. ClO decreases are reproduced at high latitudes, whereas ClO enhancements in the terminator region are underestimated and attributed to background variations. WACCM4 also reproduces the HCl depletion in the mesosphere but it does not show the observed decrease below about 2 hPa. Finally, WACCM4 simulations indicate that the observed ClONO2 increase is dominated by background variability, although SPE-induced production might contribute by 0.1 ppbv.

Damiani, A.↗

Daily MODIS 500 m Reflectance Anisotropy Direct Broadcast (DB) Products for Monitoring Vegetation Phenology Dynamics

Land surface vegetation phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring ecosystem variation in response to changes in climatic factors. The primary objective of the current article is to examine the utility of the daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy direct broadcast (DB) product for monitoring the evolution of vegetation phenological trends over selected crop, orchard, and forest regions. Although numerous model-fitted satellite data have been widely used to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface phenological patterns to understand phenological process and phenomena, current efforts to investigate the details of phenological trends, especially for natural phenological variations that occur on short time scales, are less well served by remote sensing challenges and lack of anisotropy correction in satellite data sources. The daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy product is employed to retrieve daily vegetation indices (VI) of a 1 year period for an almond orchard in California and for a winter wheat field in northeast China, as well as a 2 year period for a deciduous forest region in New Hampshire, USA. Compared with the ground records from these regions, the VI trajectories derived from the cloud-free and atmospherically corrected MODIS Nadir BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) capture not only the detailed footprint and principal attributes of the phenological events (such as flowering and blooming) but also the substantial inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates the utility of the daily 500 m MODIS reflectance anisotropy DB product to provide daily VI for monitoring and detecting changes of the natural vegetation phenology as exemplified by study regions comprising winter wheat, almond trees, and deciduous forest.

Vegetation↗

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. We conclude this result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wall Upgrades for Residential Deep Energy Retrofits: A Literature Review

In the United States, 39% of total energy consumption comes from the building sector, 20% of which is attributed to residential buildings. New, high-performance homes incorporate a combination of tight building envelopes, mechanical ventilation and efficient components to ensure comfort, adequate airflow and moisture control. These systems work together to create energy efficient homes that employ measures to manage moisture and indoor pollutants. Older homes, built before 1992 when DOE’s Building Energy Codes Program was established represent approximately 68% of building stock in the country, and often have significant air leakage and inadequate insulation. Homes with little to no air sealing or insulation result in heating and cooling losses, which can represent a substantial portion of utility bills. Done correctly, deep energy retrofits (DERs) can significantly improve the energy performance of a home’s thermal envelope, decrease indoor pollutants and increase homeowner comfort. This literature review summarizes current practices for exterior wall retrofits for existing homes, provides an overview of techno-economic approaches to investigate residential wall systems, and discusses thermal and hygrothermal modeling strategies. Accompanying this literature review is a larger effort to identify state-of-the-art technologies for existing wall energy efficiency retrofit systems that can be applied over existing siding and are suitable for the cold/very cold climates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.

He, Liyin↗

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 , characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface p CO 2 . Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface p CO 2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparing Volcanic Terrains on Venus and Earth: How Prevalent are Pyroclastic Deposits on Venus?

In the last several years, astronomers have discovered several exoplanets with masses less than 10 times that of the Earth [1]. Despite the likely abundance of Earth-sized planets, little is known about the pathways through which these planets evolve to become habitable or uninhabitable. Venus and Earth have similar planetary radii and solar orbital distance, and therefore offer a chance to study in detail the divergent evolution of two objects that now have radically different climates. Understanding the extent, duration, and types of volcanism present on Venus is an important step towards understanding how volatiles released from the interior of Venus have influenced the development of the atmosphere. Placing constraints on the extent of explosive volcanism on Venus can provide boundary conditions for timing, volumes, and altitudes for atmospheric injection of volatiles. In addition, atmospheric properties such as near-surface temperature and density affect how interior heat and volatiles are released. Radar image data for Venus can be used to determine the physical properties of volcanic deposits, and in particular, they can be used to search for evidence of pyroclastic deposits that may result from explosive outgassing of volatiles. For explosive volcanism to occur with the current high atmospheric pressure, magma volatile contents must be higher than is typical on Earth (at least 2-4% by weight) [2,3]. In, addition, pyroclastic flows should be more prevalent on Venus than convective plumes and material may not travel as far from the vent source as it would on Earth [3]. Areas of high radar backscatter with wispy margins that occur near concentric fractures on Sapho Patera [4] and several coronae in Eastern Eistla Regio [5] have been attributed to collapse of eruption columns and runout of rough materials.

Carter, Lynn M.↗

CO 2 capture in the sustainable wheat-derived activated microporous carbon compartments

Here, microporous carbon compartments (MCCs) were developed via controlled carbonization of wheat flour producing large cavities that allow CO 2 gas molecules to access micropores and adsorb effectively. KOH activation of MCCs was conducted at 700 °C with varying mass ratios of KOH/C ranging from 1 to 5, and the effects of activation conditions on the prepared carbon materials in terms of the characteristics and behavior of CO 2 adsorption were investigated. Textural properties, such as specific surface area and total pore volume, linearly increased with the KOH/C ratio, attributed to the development of pores and enlargement of pores within carbon. The highest CO 2 adsorption capacities of 5.70 mol kg -1 at 0 °C and 3.48 mol kg -1 at 25 °C were obtained for MCC activated with a KOH/C ratio of 3 (MCC-K3). In addition, CO 2 adsorption uptake was significantly dependent on the volume of narrow micropores with a pore size of less than 0.8 nm rather than the volume of larger pores or surface area. MCC-K3 also exhibited excellent cyclic stability, facile regeneration, and rapid adsorption kinetics. As compared to the pseudofirst-order model, the pseudo-second-order kinetic model described the experimental adsorption data methodically.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FLUXNET-CH 4 : a global, multi-ecosystem dataset and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH 4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH 4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH 4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH 4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH 4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH 4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH 4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20°S to 20°N) the spring onset of elevated CH 4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH 4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH 4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH 4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH 4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH 4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH 4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH 4 peak). FLUXNET-CH 4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH 4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH 4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

moisture↗

Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO 2 ?

Earth system models predict a zonal dipole of precipitation change over tropical South America, with decreases over the Amazon and increases over the Andes. Much of this has been attributed to the physiological response of the rainforest to elevated CO 2 , which describes a basin-wide reduction in stomatal conductance and transpiration. While robust in Earth system model experiments, details of the underlying atmospheric mechanism—specifically how it evolves in the context of land-atmosphere interaction and the diurnal cycle—are unresolved. We investigate this using idealized model simulations and find that within 24 hr of a CO 2 increase, changes occur over the Amazon that engender synoptic timescale feedbacks. Decreased evapotranspiration from the rainforest throttles near-surface moisture, inducing a drier, warmer, and deeper boundary layer. Above this, enhanced turbulent diffusivity increases vapor in the lower free troposphere. Together, these processes reduce convective activity and cause immediate decreases in Amazon rainfall. Over the synoptic timescale, these changes leave behind lower tropospheric moisture, which is advected westward by the background jet and increases Andean precipitation. This produces a dipole of precipitation change consistent across global and regional models as well as parameterized and resolved convection, though details are sensitive to model topography and boundary layer formulation. The mechanism reported here stresses the importance of fast timescale processes affecting stability over a period of hours that can influence longer-term vegetation-climate interactions. These results help clarify the Amazon's physiological response to rising CO 2 and provide insight into possible causes of historical model biases and end-of-century uncertainty in this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-32105-DND

NASA Langley Research Center is developing the High-Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) system to address the observational needs of NASA’s weather, climate, carbon cycle, and atmospheric composition focus areas. HALO is a multi-function airborne lidar being developed to measure atmospheric H2O and CH4 mixing ratios and aerosol/cloud/ocean optical properties using the Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) techniques, respectively. To respond to a wide range of airborne process studies, HALO can be rapidly reconfigured to provide either CH4 DIAL+HSRL, H2O DIAL+HSRL, or CH4 DIAL+H2O DIAL measurements using three different laser transmitters. During spring 2018 NASA Langley demonstrated the world’s first combined airborne CH4 DIAL and HSRL measurements from the Langley King Air aircraft during four test flights. The HALO methane configuration also participated in the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS) air quality field campaign on the NASA B200 aircraft. The flown instrument configuration employed the DIAL technique at 1645 nm for column and multi-layer range resolved measurements of CH4 concentrations, and the HSRL technique at 532 nm to make independent, unambiguous retrievals of aerosol extinction and backscatter. It also employed the standard backscatter technique at 1064 nm and is polarization-sensitive at the 1064/532 nm wavelengths. The addition of the HSRL channels provides context to the airborne CH4 DIAL measurements such as source attribution, transport, and vertical mixing through mixed layer height retrievals, as well as providing the critical capability to validate aerosol induced biases from passive space-borne measurements of column CH4. In this presentation we focus on the instrument capabilities, initial CH4 measurements over oil and gas production sites in coordination with the ACT-America campaign, CH4 signatures over the Long Island Sound domain during the LISTOS campaign, and prospects for future airborne campaigns with cohosted payloads consisting of active and passive sensors.

Rory Barton-Grimley↗

Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide ‘opportunistic experiments’ (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors.We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Matthew W Christensen↗

Simulating Black Carbon and Dust and their Radiative Forcing in Seasonal Snow: A Case Study over North China with Field Campaign Measurements

A state-of-the-art regional model, WRF-Chem, is coupled with the SNICAR model that includes the sophisticated representation of snow metamorphism processes available for climate study. The coupled model is used to simulate the black carbon (BC) and dust concentrations and their radiative forcing in seasonal snow over North China in January-February of 2010, with extensive field measurements used to evaluate the model performance. In general, the model simulated spatial variability of BC and dust mass concentrations in the top snow layer (hereafter BCS and DSTS, respectively) are quantitatively or qualitatively consistent with observations. The model generally moderately underestimates BCS in the clean regions but significantly overestimates BCS in some polluted regions. Most model results fall into the uncertainty ranges of observations. The simulated BCS and DSTS are highest with >5000 ng g-1 and up to 5 mg g-1, respectively, over the source regions and reduce to <50 ng g-1 and <1 μg g-1, respectively, in the remote regions. BCS and DSTS introduce similar magnitude of radiative warming (~10 W m-2) in snowpack, which is comparable to the magnitude of surface radiative cooling due to BC and dust in the atmosphere. This study represents the first effort in using a regional modeling framework to simulate BC and dust and their direct radiative forcing in snow. Although a variety of observational datasets have been used to attribute model biases, some uncertainties in the results remain, which highlights the need for more observations, particularly concurrent measurements of atmospheric and snow aerosols and the deposition fluxes of aerosols, in future campaigns.

black carbon↗