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Cost-Benefit Analysis For Indonesia Building Sector: Whole-Building Cooling Solutions

The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 U.S.–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub-working groups (SWG): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects. Technical analysis of whole-building cooling solutions for tropical climates of Indonesia was conducted by SWG-A to quantify energy savings, carbon dioxide reductions, and comfort improvements offered by 12 passive or low-energy cooling strategies: ceiling fans with and without thermostat setbacks; cool roofs; cool walls; exterior awnings; exterior shades; interior shades; insulated roofs; insulated walls; low-e windows; solar window films; and natural ventilation. Leveraging the results from SWG-A, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted by SWG-C to assess the consumer and national costs and impacts associated with these 12 cooling solutions. The evaluation involved estimating life-cycle costs (LCC), payback period (PBP), net present values (NPV), annual electricity burden change for low-income households, and reduced national annual power-sector generation demand by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. This evaluation can help guide Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investments in policies and programs to advance research, development, deployment, and commercial adoption (RDDCA) of efficient residential building sector cooling technologies and solutions in Indonesia. Four key energy conservation measures (ECM) have been identified to reduce air-conditioning (AC) energy demand in single-family housing in Indonesia: ceiling fan with temperature setback (to 28.1 °Celcius from 25 °C); insulated walls; insulated roof; and cool roof. This study found that low-income households with AC installations in Indonesia currently face a high energy cost burden of approximately 10%. However, by implementing a ceiling fan with temperature setback, this burden could decrease to 2.5% today and further reduce to 1.3% by the year 2060. The PBP for a ceiling fan with temperature setback is one year, indicating one of the lowest LCC and best NPV. In the planned upcoming phase of CBA, a series of building cooling improvement scenarios can be further defined, incorporating more than one ECM in combination with socio-economic factors evaluated in the initial CBA phase. Additionally, the analysis of ECM effects in multifamily housing can be expanded. This broader national analysis aims to encompass a holistic and comprehensive system-level perspective, including factors such as avoided power sector infrastructure investments, domestic job creation, domestic manufacturing job creation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advances In Li-TiS2 Cell Techno1ogy

JPL is involved in a NASA sponsored program to develop ambient temperature secondary Lithium - Titanium Disulfide Cells for future space missions. After several years of research on various lithium systems, the Li-TiS2 system was selected for development in view of its practically realizable high specific energy. In the last two years, the efforts were focused on improving the cycle life of the system and optimizing the cell design. A number of approaches, such as the use of mixed solvent electrolytes, the use of alternate anode materials, the operation of cells at low temperature, and the cycling of cells under optimized voltage limits, are examined to improve cycle life performance of this system. Cycling studies in small 150 mAh cell have identified 1.5 M LiAsF6/2-MeTHF, 1.5 M LiAsF6/EC+2-eTHF, and 1.5 M LiAsF6/THF+2-MeTHF+2-MeF as promising electrolytes for Li-TiS2 cells. Li-Al and Li-C were selected for further assessment as candidate anode materials after a detailed theoretical and experimental evaluation. Cycling of the cells at low temperature did not result in improving the cycle life of the cells. Charge and discharge voltage limits were found to have significant influence on the cycle life of the cells activated with 1.5 M LiAsF6/THF+2-MeTHF+2-MeF electrolyte. The influence of design variables, such as ratio of electrode capacity, quantity of electrolyte, pack tightness, cell configuration, etc., on the cycle life performance are being examined as a part of the design optimization study. Spiral-wound 1 Ah cells fabricated for the design studies have completed more than 500 cycles at 50% DOD. This paper summarizes the advances made in the Li-TiS2 technology at JPL since 1989.

Surampudi, S.↗

Hot Water, Cold Reality: Experimental Analysis of Sorption Constraints in Iodine Filtration Media Under Heated-Water Conditions

Iodine has been widely employed as a residual biocide in potable water applications during crewed missions. Unlike other biocides, it is essential to remove iodine from drinking water prior to consumption, as its biocidal concentration raises health concerns. Consequently, effectively removing iodine species from water is a critical step in potable water processing. Although the non-biocided heated leg has not violated microbial specifications on the International Space Station, any wetted volume lacking biocide presents potential risks for long‑duration exploration missions and for systems that are sensitive to microbial growth/contamination. Recent assessments indicate, however, that iodine‑removal performance may degrade under elevated temperature conditions, such as those required for dispensing hot water for food preparation. This reduction in efficacy appears to stem from both the potential physical degradation of filtration media and the temperature‑dependent behavior of adsorption processes. To investigate the influence of water temperature on the efficacy of filtration media for iodine removal, a series of adsorption capacity tests were conducted at both room temperature and elevated temperatures (90 °C). These experiments aimed to benchmark the performance of the adsorbents that constitute the ACTEX filter in the ISS’s potable water dispenser. The findings of this study provide critical insights into the iodine filtration process, verify the potential performance shortfall under elevated temperature conditions, and establish the basis for defining new absorbent requirements to ensure reliable iodine removal in future mission architectures.

iodine↗

Hot Water, Cold Reality: Experimental Analysis of Sorption Constraints in Iodine Filtration Media Under Heated-Water Conditions

Iodine has been widely employed as a residual biocide in potable water applications during crewed missions. Unlike other biocides, it is essential to remove iodine from drinking water prior to consumption, as its biocidal concentration raises health concerns. Consequently, effectively removing iodine species from water is a critical step in potable water processing. Although the non-biocided heated leg has not violated microbial specifications on the International Space Station, any wetted volume lacking biocide presents potential risks for long‑duration exploration missions and for systems that are sensitive to microbial growth/contamination. Recent assessments indicate, however, that iodine‑removal performance may degrade under elevated temperature conditions, such as those required for dispensing hot water for food preparation. This reduction in efficacy appears to stem from both the potential physical degradation of filtration media and the temperature‑dependent behavior of adsorption processes. To investigate the influence of water temperature on the efficacy of filtration media for iodine removal, a series of adsorption capacity tests were conducted at both room temperature and elevated temperatures (90 °C). These experiments aimed to benchmark the performance of the adsorbents that constitute the ACTEX filter in the ISS’s potable water dispenser. The findings of this study provide critical insights into the iodine filtration process, verify the potential performance shortfall under elevated temperature conditions, and establish the basis for defining new absorbent requirements to ensure reliable iodine removal in future mission architectures.

drinking water↗

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Electronic Structure and Spin Correlations in Novel Magnetic Structures

The research has advanced understanding of the interrelation between the crystal structure and magnetism in several materials which are or can be of interest for the development of improved, specialized or more cost-effective permanent magnets, as well as in selected materials for biomedical and catalytic applications. Fundamental aspects of ferromagnetism were investigated for Mn-Ge, Co-V and Co-Ge nanoclusters and for melt-spun Co-Sn alloys. New solution-chemistry synthesis methods were designed and tested for Fe-Pt, Fe3C and Fe3O4 nanoparticles. Off-stoichiometric Laves phases in the Fe-Si-Zr, Fe-Nb and Fe-Ta systems, as well as Fe5(Si,Ge)B2 compounds were assessed as new rare-earth-free permanent magnet materials; all except the Fe-Si-Zr Laves phases were found to be promising enough to merit a further exploration. A new method for manufacturing rare-earth-free magnets based on the MnBi compound was developed; by purposely avoiding oxidation-sensitive fine single-crystalline powders, the new method yields magnets with a 50% larger energy storage capacity. Studies of rare-earth-lean permanent-magnet materials (lean compared to the currently predominant Nd-Fe-B materials) were focused on the tetragonal compound of the ThMn12 structure type and included both discovery and characterization of new formulations and exploration of new fabrication/processing techniques. Among the most significant achievements were successful preparation of a vanadium-lean SmFe11V compound, the first observation of thermomechanically induced texture in nanocrystalline Sm(Fe,V)12 alloys, and a breakthrough reduction-diffusion synthesis of Sm1-xZrx(Fe0.8Co0.2)11.2Ti0.8 single-crystal particles with a coercivity as high as 12.6 kOe. Several experiments aimed at improvement of the Nd-Fe-B magnet have also been undertaken including a five-fold increase of the coercivity through a grain-boundary diffusion treatment of a Nd10Fe84B6 nanocrystalline alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deployment Readiness Framework Subtask 1.1 (Literature Review)

Island and remote coastal communities face some of the most challenging environments for building, operating, and maintaining energy infrastructure, as well as the highest costs for electricity, fuels, and other essential energy sources. As sea-levels rise and storms become more intense and frequent, these communities and the energy infrastructure that supports coastal lives and livelihoods are also at increasing risk from natural hazards. To address these challenges, many coastal communities are envisioning energy solutions that will support the triple bottom line goals of the blue economy: economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Yet, island and remote coastal communities often face limited resources and capacity to tackle complex energy and coastal resilience issues. To support community-driven energy transitions in island and remote communities, and to better understand relationships between energy, community, and ecosystem resilience, the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has initiated the development of a Deployment Readiness Framework (DRF). The objective of the work is to co-produce and test practical tools and approaches that assess the readiness of coastal communities for marine energy demonstration, deployment, and operation. The DRF aims to build on and support the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) and other community-oriented energy transition programs. This project is jointly led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The development of the DRF includes three main phases: 1) a learning phase involving stakeholder engagement and literature review to synthesize metrics of community readiness to advance through an energy transition and to understand the state of the research and practice of participatory science-policy processes in various sectors, 2) a design phase to define readiness approaches and tools that will be developed as part of the DRF, and 3) an implementation phase to create the applications and interfaces for WPTO and the national laboratories to interact with the DRF. All three phases include close collaboration with communities and end-users of the framework, first to identify gaps in the science and tools needed to achieve community-driven energy transition goals and second, to test and improve the framework iteratively. Through technical assistance programs like ETIPP and utilizing the completed DRF to understand the influencing factors which motivate or deter energy transitions, WPTO hopes to engage a number of near-term marine energy demonstration opportunities. Here we report on the results from the literature review (Subtask 1.1) to inform the stakeholder engagement (Subtask 1.2) and design phase (Task 2) of the project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

L-band radar sensing of soil moisture

The performance of an L-band, 25 cm wavelength imaging synthetic aperture radar was assessed for soil moisture determination, and the temporal variability of radar returns from a number of agricultural fields was studied. A series of three overflights was accomplished over an agricultural test site in Kern County, California. Soil moisture samples were collected from bare fields at nine sites at depths of 0-2, 2-5, 5-15, and 15-30 cm. These gravimetric measurements were converted to percent of field capacity for correlation to the radar return signal. The initial signal film was optically correlated and scanned to produce image data numbers. These numbers were then converted to relative return power by linear interpolation of the noise power wedge which was introduced in 5 dB steps into the original signal film before and after each data run. Results of correlations between the relative return power and percent of field capacity (FC) demonstrate that the relative return power from this imaging radar system is responsive to the amount of soil moisture in bare fields. The signal returned from dry (15% FC) and wet (130% FC) fields where furrowing is parallel to the radar beam differs by about 10 dB.

Chang, A. T. C.↗

Advanced communication satellites worldwide - Satellites of opportunity for the ACTS mobile terminal

Space agencies worldwide are involved in advanced satellite communication systems. This paper presents an overview of these satellites and related technologies in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. They are geostationary satellites using high frequency bands such as K/Ka (20/30 GHz) and O-band (millimeter wave), as well as optical frequencies. The similarity of these programs demonstrate a common interest to develop large capacity satellite communication systems, and shows that closer international cooperation could be set up. The ACTS Mobile Terminal (AMT) project discussed here is such an example. The AMT's compatibility with satellites other than ACTS has been studied, and a proposed common experiment is presented here. The Japanese Engineering Test Satellite ETS-VI has been identified as the best initial 'satellite of opportunity' for AMT in this preliminary assessment.

Girardey, Catherine C.↗

An Engine Research Program Focused on Low Pressure Turbine Aerodynamic Performance

A comprehensive test program was performed in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory at the NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland Ohio using a highly instrumented Pratt and Whitney Canada PW 545 turbofan engine. A key objective of this program was the development of a high-altitude database on small, high-bypass ratio engine performance and operability. In particular, the program documents the impact of altitude (Reynolds Number) on the aero-performance of the low-pressure turbine (fan turbine). A second objective was to assess the ability of a state-of-the-art CFD code to predict the effect of Reynolds number on the efficiency of the low-pressure turbine. CFD simulation performed prior and after the engine tests will be presented and discussed. Key findings are the ability of a state-of-the art CFD code to accurately predict the impact of Reynolds Number on the efficiency and flow capacity of the low-pressure turbine. In addition the CFD simulations showed the turbulent intensity exiting the low-pressure turbine to be high (9%). The level is consistent with measurements taken within an engine.

Castner, Raymond↗

Leafy Greens Grown on the International Space Station May Provide a Nutritious Supplement to Astronauts' Diet

Supplemental safe food production has been an essential goal of NASA to meet the nutritional needs of astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) as well as for future long duration missions to the moon and beyond. Food crops grown in space experience different environmental conditions than plants grown on Earth (i.e. microgravity and spaceflight physical sciences impacts). To test the growth methods and effects of the space environment, red romaine lettuce Lactuca sativa cv. 'Outredgeous', was grown in Veggie plant growth chambers on the ISS. Microbiological food safety of the plants grown on the ISS was determined by heterotrophic plate counts to assess total microbial load for bacteria and fungi as well as screening for specific pathogens and isolate identification. Molecular characterization was completed using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) to provide valuable information on the taxonomic composition and community structure of the plant microbiome. Chemical analyses of plant tissue were conducted to understand spaceflight-induced changes in key elements in the space diet, phenolics, anthocyanin levels, and Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC), a measure of antioxidant capacity. Three growth tests of red romaine lettuce were completed on ISS, VEG-01A, VEG-01B, and VEG-03A. Plants were harvested using two harvest methods, either a single terminal harvest (after 33 days) or cut-and-come-again repetitive harvesting (64 days total growth). Ground controls were grown simultaneously with a delay to accommodate condition monitoring and replication. A comparison of the plant tissue returned to Earth showed leaves from the second grow-out had significantly higher bacterial counts than the preceding or subsequent growth test or any of the ground controls. Fungal counts were significantly higher on the final cut-and-come-again harvest of the third grow out. None of the potential foodborne pathogens that were screened for were detected. Bacterial and fungal isolate identification and community characterization indicated similar diversity between VEG-01A and VEG-01B growth tests, however, there appeared to be subtle differences in diversity and distribution among the three growth tests. Chemical analysis of plant tissue revealed significant variation in a few elemental data, but variation in levels of phenolics, anthocyanins, and ORAC was not significantly different. This study indicated that leafy vegetable crops could safely provide an edible supplement to astronauts' diet, and our analysis provided baseline data for continual operation of the Veggie plant growth units on ISS. This research was funded by NASA's space biology program.

Food Production↗

Comparative Techno-economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Producing High-Value Chemicals and Fuels from Waste Plastic via Conventional Pyrolysis and Thermal Oxo-degradation

The rapid rise in global plastic production in recent decades has resulted in the massive generation of plastic waste. Over 75% of the plastic waste generated in the United States was sent to landfills, with a meager 8.7% recycled. Plastics are valuable feedstocks for platform chemicals and fuels. Chemical upcycling of waste high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is gaining more attention as a potentially feasible and environmentally friendly plastic waste management technology. Conventional pyrolysis (CPY) and thermal oxo-degradation (TOD) are two chemical upcycling technologies actively researched for decomposing waste HDPE into valuable chemicals and fuels. However, there are few studies on the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of these technologies for converting waste HDPE to valuable products. This study conducts a comparative TEA and LCA study of the thermochemical decomposition of waste HDPE to produce gaseous (ethylene and propylene) and liquid (naphtha, diesel, and wax) products by CPY and TOD. The study elucidates and compares the impact of hydrocracking longer chain hydrocarbons to produce more valuable products on the TEA and LCA. The TEA showed that the fixed capital investment could range from $\$32.5$ million for TOD without hydrocracking to $\$244$ million for CPY with hydrocracking scenarios. Annual revenues range from $\$28.1$ million to $\$71.5$ million in favor of scenarios with hydrocracking. However, the net present value ranges from $\$1.4$ million to $\$265.8$ million in favor of scenarios without hydrocracking. Sensitivity analysis showed that fixed capital cost, facility capacity, and product prices have the biggest impact on the process economics of the facilities, while utilities and waste transportation to refineries have the biggest impact on environmental impacts. Here, the LCA showed that primary products from scenarios without hydrocracking can be more environmentally friendly than virgin products from petroleum processes. However, TOD and CPY with hydrocracking primary products have more emissions than those of virgin products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks↗

HCMM energy budget data as a model input for assessing regions of high potential groundwater pollution

The author has identified the following significant results. Day thermal data were analyzed to assess depth to groundwater in the test site. HCMM apparent temperature was corrected for atmospheric effects using lake temperature of the Oahe Reservoir in central South Dakota. Soil surface temperatures were estimated using an equation developed for ground studies. A significant relationship was found between surface soil temperature and depth to groundwater, as well as between the surface soil-maximum air temperature differential and soil water content (% of field capacity) in the 0 cm and 4 cm layer of the profile. Land use for the data points consisted of row crops, small grains, stubble, and pasture.

Moore, D. G.↗

Considerations for Health and Performance During Surface Extravehicular Activities

BACKGROUND: NASA’s objectives for expanding human presence beyond low Earth orbit will require Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on lunar and planetary surfaces. Given the physiological and functional demands of conducting surface EVAs in a pressurized spacesuit in reduced gravity environments, there is a possibility that crew injury and compromised physiological and/or functional performance may present. OVERVIEW: Many human health and performance knowledge gaps exist in regards to exploration EVA that require characterization to ensure safety, reliability, and mission success. To address knowledge gaps, EVA simulations in Earth-based analog environments and/or spacesuit simulators can be utilized to provide valuable insights into task-based physiologic and metabolic costs, cognitive loads, and associated operational limitations to inform future mission concepts. Physical workloads approaching 60% of maximum metabolic rates and 85% age-predicted heart rate maxima; core body temperatures approaching 100o F; and subjective responses indicating limited spare cognitive capacity via Bedford scale have been observed during ground-based exploration EVA simulations in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload Simulator (ARGOS) and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) during simulated planetary EVAs in pressurized suits. Further, ground-based EVA analogs vary in their ability to simulate planetary EVA and resulting physical workloads. DISCUSSION: Metabolic costs, thermal burdens, functional strength, and cognitive impacts have been and must continue to be assessed in ground-based analogs to fully characterize operational demands and crew readiness levels for exploration EVA. Considerations should be given to enabling a new concept of high-tempo surface EVA operations and associated work-rest intervals, understanding human health and performance impacts of evolving commercial suit designs and capabilities, and predictive modeling and decision support capabilities to enable safe and successful EVA operations.

EVA↗

Considerations for Health and Performance during Surface Extravehicular Activities

BACKGROUND: NASA’s objectives for expanding human presence beyond low Earth orbit will require Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on lunar and planetary surfaces. Given the physiological and functional demands of conducting surface EVAs in a pressurized spacesuit in reduced gravity environments, there is a possibility that crew injury and compromised physiological and/or functional performance may present. OVERVIEW: Many human health and performance knowledge gaps exist in regards to exploration EVA that require characterization to ensure safety, reliability, and mission success. To address knowledge gaps, EVA simulations in Earth-based analog environments and/or spacesuit simulators can be utilized to provide valuable insights into task-based physiologic and metabolic costs, cognitive loads, and associated operational limitations to inform future mission concepts. Physical workloads approaching 60% of maximum metabolic rates and 85% age-predicted heart rate maxima; core body temperatures approaching 100° F; and subjective responses indicating limited spare cognitive capacity via Bedford scale have been observed during ground-based exploration EVA simulations in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload Simulator (ARGOS) and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) during simulated planetary EVAs in pressurized suits. Further, ground-based EVA analogs vary in their ability to simulate planetary EVA and resulting physical workloads. DISCUSSION: Metabolic costs, thermal burdens, functional strength, and cognitive impacts have been and must continue to be assessed in ground-based analogs to fully characterize operational demands and crew readiness levels for exploration EVA. Considerations should be given to enabling a new concept of high-tempo surface EVA operations and associated work-rest intervals, understanding human health and performance impacts of evolving commercial suit designs and capabilities, and predictive modeling and decision support capabilities to enable safe and successful EVA operations.

P Estep↗

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗