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NASA NTRS2008

Joint Test Plan for Gas Dynamic Spray Technology Demonstration

Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) and NASA have similar missions, facilities, and structures located in similar harsh environments. Both are responsible for a number of facilities/structures with metallic structural and non-structural components in highly and moderately corrosive environments. Regardless of the corrosivity of the environment, all metals require periodic maintenance activity to guard against the insidious effects of corrosion and thus ensure that structures meet or exceed design or performance life. The standard practice for protecting metallic substrates in atmospheric environments is the use of an applied coating system. Current coating systems used across AFSPC and NASA contain volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). These coatings are subject to environmental regulations at the Federal and State levels that limit their usage. In addition, these coatings often cannot withstand the high temperatures and exhaust that may be experienced by AFSPC and NASA structures. In response to these concerns, AFSPC and NASA have approved the use of thermal spray coatings (TSCs). Thermal spray coatings are extremely durable and environmentally friendly coating alternatives, but utilize large cumbersome equipment for application that make the coatings difficult and time consuming to repair. Other concerns include difficulties coating complex geometries and the cost of equipment, training, and materials. Gas Dynamic Spray (GDS) technology (also known as Cold Spray) will be evaluated as a smaller, more maneuverable repair method as well as for areas where thermal spray techniques are not as effective. The technology can result in reduced maintenance and thus reduced hazardous materials/wastes associated with current processes. Thermal spray and GDS coatings also have no VOCs and are environmentally preferable coatings. To achieve a condition suitable for the application of a coating system, including GDS coatings, the substrate must undergo some type of surface preparation and/or depainting operation to ensure adhesion of the new coating system. The GDS unit selected for demonstration has a powder feeding system that can be used for surface preparation or coating application. The surface preparation feature will also be examined. The primary objective of this effort is to demonstrate GDS technology as a repair method for TSCs. The project will also determine the optimal GDS coating thickness for acceptable performance. Successful completion of this project will result in approval of GDS technology as a repair method for TSCs at AFSPC and NASA installations and will improve corrosion protection at critical systems, facilitate easier maintenance activity, extend maintenance cycles, eliminate flight hardware contamination, and reduce the amount of hazardous waste generated.

Lewis, Pattie↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite Ocean Biology: Past, Present, Future

Since 1978 when the first satellite ocean color proof-of-concept sensor, the Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner, was launched, much progress has been made in refining the basic measurement concept and expanding the research applications of global satellite time series of biological and optical properties such as chlorophyll-a concentrations. The seminar will review the fundamentals of satellite ocean color measurements (sensor design considerations, on-orbit calibration, atmospheric corrections, and bio-optical algorithms), scientific results from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) missions, and the goals of future NASA missions such as PACE, the Aerosol, Cloud, Ecology (ACE), and Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GeoCAPE) missions.

McClain, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Environmentally-driven Materials Obsolescence: Material Replacements and Lessons Learned from NASA's Space Shuttle Program

The Space Shuttle Program was terminated in 2011 with the last flight of the Shuttle Endeavour. During the 30 years of its operating history, the number of domestic and international environmental regulations increased rapidly and resulted in materials obsolescence risks to the program. Initial replacement efforts focused on ozone depleting substances. As pressure from environmental regulations increased, Shuttle worked on the replacement of heavy metals. volatile organic compounds and hazardous air pollutants. Near the end of the program. Shuttle identified potential material obsolescence driven by international regulations and the potential for suppliers to reformulate materials. During the Shuttle Program a team focused on environmentally-driven materials obsolescence worked to identify and mitigate these risks. Lessons learned from the Shuttle experience can be applied to new NASA Programs as well as other high reliability applications.

Meinhold, Anne↗
NASA NTRS2012

Dynamic Range and Sensitivity Requirements of Satellite Ocean Color Sensors: Learning from the Past

Sensor design and mission planning for satellite ocean color measurements requires careful consideration of the signal dynamic range and sensitivity (specifically here signal-to-noise ratio or SNR) so that small changes of ocean properties (e.g., surface chlorophyll-a concentrations or Chl) can be quantified while most measurements are not saturated. Past and current sensors used different signal levels, formats, and conventions to specify these critical parameters, making it difficult to make cross-sensor comparisons or to establish standards for future sensor design. The goal of this study is to quantify these parameters under uniform conditions for widely used past and current sensors in order to provide a reference for the design of future ocean color radiometers. Using measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard the Aqua satellite (MODISA) under various solar zenith angles (SZAs), typical (L(sub typical)) and maximum (L(sub max)) at-sensor radiances from the visible to the shortwave IR were determined. The Ltypical values at an SZA of 45 deg were used as constraints to calculate SNRs of 10 multiband sensors at the same L(sub typical) radiance input and 2 hyperspectral sensors at a similar radiance input. The calculations were based on clear-water scenes with an objective method of selecting pixels with minimal cross-pixel variations to assure target homogeneity. Among the widely used ocean color sensors that have routine global coverage, MODISA ocean bands (1 km) showed 2-4 times higher SNRs than the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (Sea-WiFS) (1 km) and comparable SNRs to the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS)-RR (reduced resolution, 1.2 km), leading to different levels of precision in the retrieved Chl data product. MERIS-FR (full resolution, 300 m) showed SNRs lower than MODISA and MERIS-RR with the gain in spatial resolution. SNRs of all MODISA ocean bands and SeaWiFS bands (except the SeaWiFS near-IR bands) exceeded those from prelaunch sensor specifications after adjusting the input radiance to L(sub typical). The tabulated L(sub typical), L(sub max), and SNRs of the various multiband and hyperspectral sensors under the same or similar radiance input provide references to compare sensor performance in product precision and to help design future missions such as the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission and the Pre-Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems (PACE) mission currently being planned by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Cabauw Intercomparison Campaign for Nitrogen Dioxide Measuring Instruments (CINDI): Design, Execution, and Early Results

From June to July 2009 more than thirty different in-situ and remote sensing instruments from all over the world participated in the Cabauw Intercomparison campaign for Nitrogen Dioxide measuring Instruments (CINDI). The campaign took place at KNMI's Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) in the Netherlands. Its main objectives were to determine the accuracy of state-ofthe- art ground-based measurement techniques for the detection of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (both in-situ and remote sensing), and to investigate their usability in satellite data validation. The expected outcomes are recommendations regarding the operation and calibration of such instruments, retrieval settings, and observation strategies for the use in ground-based networks for air quality monitoring and satellite data validation. Twenty-four optical spectrometers participated in the campaign, of which twenty-one had the capability to scan different elevation angles consecutively, the so-called Multi-axis DOAS systems, thereby collecting vertical profile information, in particular for nitrogen dioxide and aerosol. Various in-situ samplers and lidar instruments simultaneously characterized the variability of atmospheric trace gases and the physical properties of aerosol particles. A large data set of continuous measurements of these atmospheric constituents has been collected under various meteorological conditions and air pollution levels. Together with the permanent measurement capability at the CESAR site characterizing the meteorological state of the atmosphere, the CINDI campaign provided a comprehensive observational data set of atmospheric constituents in a highly polluted region of the world during summertime. First detailed comparisons performed with the CINDI data show that slant column measurements of NO2, O4 and HCHO with MAX-DOAS agree within 5 to 15%, vertical profiles of NO2 derived from several independent instruments agree within 25% of one another, and MAX-DOAS aerosol optical thickness agrees within 20-30% with AERONET data. For the in-situ NO2 instrument using a molybdenum converter, a bias was found as large as 5 ppbv during day time, when compared to the other in-situ instruments using photolytic converters.

Atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS2014

Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

human health↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(−2) DU(−1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(−2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2013

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Five-year Performance Study of Low VOC Coatings over Zinc Thermal Spray for the Protection of Carbon Steel at the Kennedy Space Center

The launch facilities at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) are located approximately 1000 feet from the Atlantic Ocean where they are exposed to salt deposits, high humidity, high UV degradation, and acidic exhaust from solid rocket boosters. These assets are constructed from carbon steel, which requires a suitable coating to provide long-term protection to reduce corrosion and its associated costs. While currently used coating systems provide excellent corrosion control performance, they are subject to occupational, safety, and environmental regulations at the Federal and State levels that limit their use. Many contain high volatile organic compounds (VOCs), hazardous air pollutants, and other hazardous materials. Hazardous waste from coating operations include vacuum filters, zinc dust, hazardous paint related material, and solid paint. There are also worker safety issues such as exposure to solvents and isocyanates. To address these issues, top-coated thermal spray zinc coating systems were investigated as a promising environmentally friendly corrosion protection for carbon steel in an acidic launch environment. Additional benefits of the combined coating system include a long service life, cathodic protection to the substrate, no volatile contaminants, and high service temperatures. This paper reports the results of a performance based study to evaluate low VOC topcoats (for thermal spray zinc coatings) on carbon steel for use in a space launch environment.

Zinc Thermal Spray↗
NASA NTRS2013

Response to Comment by Rabilloud on 'prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power'

The critique by Rabilloud-whose only listed professional affiliation is an antinuclear activist groupis grossly biased and contains numerous misleading, hyperbolic, and erroneous claims about our paper2 and about nuclear energy in general. The nature of his comments bears a striking resemblance to the fallacious reasoning commonly employed by climate change deniers to try to undermine public concern about the climate crisis. Specifically, he resorts to cherry-picking of information and diversionary (red herring) arguments, demands unrealistic exactness, and cites untrustworthy sources. None of his claims undermine any of the key results of our paper, most notably our conclusion that nuclear energy has prevented, and can continue to prevent, a very high number of fatalities and very large greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel burning. It follows that, as uncomfortable as it is for many well-intentioned environmentalists to admit, efforts to undermine nuclear energy also undermine mitigation of climate change and air pollution, with a heavy cost in human lives and potentially disastrous future climate change.

claiming↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Numerical Testbed for Remote Sensing of Aerosols, and its Demonstration for Evaluating Retrieval Synergy from a Geostationary Satellite Constellation of GEO-CAPE and GOES-R

We present a numerical testbed for remote sensing of aerosols, together with a demonstration for evaluating retrieval synergy from a geostationary satellite constellation. The testbed combines inverse (optimal-estimation) software with a forward model containing linearized code for computing particle scattering (for both spherical and non-spherical particles), a kernel-based (land and ocean) surface bi-directional reflectance facility, and a linearized radiative transfer model for polarized radiance. Calculation of gas absorption spectra uses the HITRAN (HIgh-resolution TRANsmission molecular absorption) database of spectroscopic line parameters and other trace species cross-sections. The outputs of the testbed include not only the Stokes 4-vector elements and their sensitivities (Jacobians) with respect to the aerosol single scattering and physical parameters (such as size and shape parameters, refractive index, and plume height), but also DFS (Degree of Freedom for Signal) values for retrieval of these parameters. This testbed can be used as a tool to provide an objective assessment of aerosol information content that can be retrieved for any constellation of (planned or real) satellite sensors and for any combination of algorithm design factors (in terms of wavelengths, viewing angles, radiance and/or polarization to be measured or used). We summarize the components of the testbed, including the derivation and validation of analytical formulae for Jacobian calculations. Benchmark calculations from the forward model are documented. In the context of NASA's Decadal Survey Mission GEOCAPE (GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events), we demonstrate the use of the testbed to conduct a feasibility study of using polarization measurements in and around the O2 A band for the retrieval of aerosol height information from space, as well as an to assess potential improvement in the retrieval of aerosol fine and coarse mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) through the synergic use of two future geostationary satellites, GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-series) and TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution). Strong synergy between GEOS-R and TEMPO are found especially in their characterization of surface bi-directional reflectance, and thereby, can potentially improve the AOD retrieval to the accuracy required by GEO-CAPE.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2014

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth's atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone's abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone precursor emissions inspired us to produce this up-to-date overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. Much of the text is a synthesis of in situ and remotely sensed ozone observations reported in the peer-reviewed literature, but we also include some new and extended analyses using well-known and referenced datasets to draw connections between ozone trends and distributions in different regions of the world. In addition, we provide a brief evaluation of the accuracy of rural or remote surface ozone trends calculated by three state-of-the-science chemistry-climate models, the tools used by scientists to fill the gaps in our knowledge of global tropospheric ozone distribution and trends.

Mixing ratios↗
NASA NTRS2015

Conceptual Design of Environmentally Friendly Rotorcraft - A Comparison of NASA and ONERA Approaches

In 2011, a task was initiated under the US-French Project Agreement on rotorcraft studies to collaborate on design methodologies for environmentally friendly rotorcraft. This paper summarizes the efforts of that collaboration. The French and US aerospace agencies, ONERA and NASA, have their own software toolsets and approaches to rotorcraft design. The first step of this research effort was to understand how rotorcraft impact the environment, with the initial focus on air pollution. Second, similar baseline helicopters were developed for a passenger transport mission, using NASA and ONERA rotorcraft design software tools. Comparisons were made between the designs generated by the two tools. Finally, rotorcraft designs were generated targeting reduced environmental impact. The results show that a rotorcraft design that targets reduced environmental impact can be significantly different than one that targets traditional cost drivers, such as fuel burn and empty weight.

Conceptual Design↗
NASA NTRS2015

Optimization of Instrument Requirements for NASAs GEO-CAPE Coastal Mission Concept Based On Sensor Capability And Cost Studies

NASA's GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEOCAPE) mission concept recommended by the U.S. National Research Council (2007) focuses on measurements of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols and aquatic coastal ecology and biogeochemistry from geostationary orbit (35,786 km altitude). GEO-CAPE is currently in pre-formulation (pre- Phase) A with no established launch date. NASA continues to support science and engineering studies to reduce mission risk. Instrument design lab (IDL) studies were commissioned in 2014 to design and cost two implementations for geostationary ocean color instruments (1) Wide-Angle Spectrometer (WAS) and (2) Filter Radiometer (FR) and (3) a cost scaling study to compare the costs for implementing different science performance requirements.

Geo-CAPE↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain-Fritsch Scheme

Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high resolution (1-10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at these spatial scales due to uncertainties in initial meteorological conditions and/or grid-scale cloud microphysics schemes. In particular, it is still unclear to what extent a subgrid-scale convection scheme could be modified to bring in scale-awareness for improving high-resolution short-term precipitation forecasts in the WRF model. To address these issues, we introduced scale-aware parameterized cloud dynamics for high-resolution forecasts by making several changes to the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model. These changes include subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interactions, a dynamic adjustment timescale, impacts of cloud updraft mass fluxes on grid-scale vertical velocity, and lifting condensation level-based entrainment methodology that includes scale dependency. A series of 48-hour retrospective forecasts using a combination of three treatments of convection (KF, updated KF, and the use of no cumulus parameterization), two cloud microphysics schemes and two types of initial condition datasets were performed over the U.S. southern Great Plains on 9- and 3-km grid spacings during the summers of 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that (1) the source of initial conditions play a key role in high-resolution precipitation forecasting, and (2) our updated KF scheme greatly alleviates the excessive precipitation at 9-km grid spacing and improves results at 3-km grid spacing as well. Overall, we found that the updated KF scheme incorporated into a high-resolution model does provide better forecasts for precipitation location and intensity.

convective parameterization↗
NASA NTRS2014

Upgrade of the NASA 4STAR (Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research) to its Full Science Capability of Sun-Sky-Cloud-Trace Gas Spectrometry in Airborne Science Deployments

The objectives of this task in the AITT (Airborne Instrument Technology Transition) Program are to (1) upgrade the NASA 4STAR (Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research) instrument to its full science capability of measuring (a) direct-beam sun transmission to derive aerosol optical depth spectra, (b) sky radiance vs scattering angle to retrieve aerosol absorption and type (via complex refractive index spectra, shape, and mode-resolved size distribution), (c) zenith radiance for cloud properties, and (d) hyperspectral signals for trace gas retrievals, and (2) demonstrate its suitability for deployment in challenging NASA airborne multiinstrument campaigns. 4STAR combines airborne sun tracking, sky scanning, and zenith pointing with diffraction spectroscopy to improve knowledge of atmospheric constituents and their links to air pollution, radiant energy budgets (hence climate), and remote measurements of Earth's surfaces. Direct beam hyperspectral measurement of optical depth improves retrievals of gas constituents and determination of aerosol properties. Sky scanning enhances retrievals of aerosol type and size distribution. 4STAR measurements are intended to tighten the closure between satellite and ground-based measurements. 4STAR incorporates a modular sun-tracking/sky-scanning optical head with fiber optic signal transmission to rack mounted spectrometers, permitting miniaturization of the external optical head, and future detector evolution. 4STAR test flights, as well as science flights in the 2012-13 TCAP (Two-Column Aerosol Project) and 2013 SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys) have demonstrated that the following are essential for 4STAR to achieve its full science potential: (1) Calibration stability for both direct-beam irradiance and sky radiance, (2) Improved light collection and usage, and (3) Improved flight operability and reliability. A particular challenge for the AITT-4STAR project has been conducting it simultaneously with preparations for, and execution of, ARISE (Arctic Radiation - IceBridge Sea&Ice Experiment), a NASA airborne science deployment (unplanned when AITT-4STAR was selected for funding) in which 4STAR will deploy to Thule, Greenland, and Fairbanks, Alaska, on the NASA C- 130. This presentation describes progress to date in accomplishing AITT-4STAR goals, and plans for project completion.

Sun-Sky-Cloud-Trace↗
NASA NTRS2016

Health and Climate Impacts of Ocean-Going Vessels in East Asia

East Asia has the most rapidly growing shipping emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants, but the least in-depth analysis. Full evaluation of all pollutants is needed to assess the impacts of shipping emissions. Here, using an advanced method based on detailed dynamic ship activity data, we show that shipping emissions in East Asia accounted for 16% of global shipping CO2 in 2013, compared to only 4-7% in 2002-2005. Increased emissions lead to large adverse health impacts, with 14,500-37,500 premature deaths per year. Global mean radiative forcing from East Asian shipping is initially negative, but would become positive after approximately eight years for constant current emissions. As a large fraction of vessels are registered elsewhere, joint efforts are necessary to reduce emissions and mitigate the climate and health impacts of shipping in the region.

climate change impacts↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

emissions↗