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At least 109 records · Page 6

A Weather Analysis for Xcel Energy's 2030 Colorado Preferred Plan

The Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy (Xcel), plans to meet its target of an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels by 2030 through its Preferred Plan1,2 that includes increasing the wind and solar energy on its system, reducing coal, and adjusting the operation and dispatch of new and existing thermal generation. The objective of our analysis reported here is to identify how the PSCo generation and transmission of its Preferred Plan might operate in the face of specific weather events. We investigate weather events that currently cause stress to PSCo’s system, such as winter storms and extreme heat. In addition, we explore how the future system responds to scenarios that may be considered normal weather conditions today, but that have a large impact on wind and solar generation potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dataset for: Electric Vulnerability Index: Targeted Energy Storage Implementation Metric

Uninterrupted access to electricity is critical to the safety and security of American households. More frequent and extreme emergency events increase outages across the country, disproportionately impacting vulnerable communities that experience the most frequent and longest outages, are most sensitive to the loss of electric power, and have the least capacity to adapt to these conditions. This study devises a metric, the Electric Vulnerability Index (EVI), and validates this metric against the 2021 Winter Storm Uri in Texas. Though not ubiquitous, similar trends were observed between adjacent areas with higher EVI and those with higher outage rates from this storm. EVI is offered as a viable approach to quantify a population’s vulnerability to electric outages and maps that index across the continental United States to aid policymakers, advocates, and energy system stakeholders in the targeted deployment of resilience solutions, such as energy storage, to communities most in need. This dataset includes the geopackage file containing all relevant attributes used to generate the maps used in the accompanying paper.

Kerby, Jessica [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

A Meta-Level Framework for Evaluating Resilience in Net-Zero Carbon Power Systems with Extreme Weather Events in the United States

Important changes are underway in the U.S. power industry in the way that electricity is sourced, transported, and utilized. Disruption from extreme weather events and cybersecurity events is bringing new scrutiny to power-system resilience. Recognizing the complex social and technical aspects that are involved, this article provides a meta-level framework for coherently evaluating and making decisions about power-system resilience. It does so by examining net-zero carbon strategies with quantitative, qualitative, and integrative dimensions across discrete location-specific systems and timescales. The generalizable framework is designed with a flexibility and logic that allows for refinement to accompany stakeholder review processes and highly localized decision-making. To highlight the framework’s applicability across multiple timescales, processes, and types of knowledge, power system outages are reviewed for extreme weather events, including 2021 and 2011 winter storms that impacted Texas, the 2017 Hurricane Maria that affected Puerto Rico, and a heatwave/wildfire event in California in August 2020. By design, the meta-level framework enables utility decision-makers, regulators, insurers, and communities to analyze and track levels of resilience safeguards for a given system. Future directions to advance an integrated science of resilience in net-zero power systems and the use of this framework are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar power satellite offshore rectenna study

Offshore rectennas are feasible and cost competitive with land rectennas but the type of rectenna suitable for offshore use is quite different from that specified in the present reference system. A nonground plane design minimizes the weight and greatly reduces the number of costly support towers. This perferred design is an antenna array consisting of individually encapsulated dipoles with reflectors or tagis supported on feed wires. Such a 5 GW rectenna could be built at a 50 m water depth site to withstand hurricane, winter storm, and icing conditions for a one time cost of $5.7 billion. Subsequent units would be about 1.3 less expensive. More benign and more shallow water sites would result in substantially lower costs. The major advantage of an offshore rectenna is the removal of microwave radiation from populated areas.

Source record↗

Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) - An overview

The field phase of the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) was conducted from 15 January to 15 March 1986. The objectives of GALE were to study mesoscale and air-sea interaction processes in East Coast winter storms, with particular emphasis on their contributions to cyclogenesis. This project area, specail observing systems, and field operations are described. There were thirteen special observing periods during the field phase including eight cases of cyclogenesis. Meterological and oceanographic phenomena on which special observations were collected include: cyclogenesis, rainbands, cold fronts, coastal fronts, cold-air damming, jets streaks, tropopause folding, low-level jets, cold-air outbreaks, lightning and marine boundary layer interactions with Gulf Stream and mid-shelf oceanic fronts. Preliminary research findings and operational implications are presented. GALE data documents are listed. The GALE data set is open to all interested scientists.

Dirks, R. A.↗

Improved VAS regression soundings of mesoscale temperature features observed during the atmospheric variability experiment on 6 March 1982

In 1982, the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) on the GOES satellite performed the Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE) to verify VAS's mesoscale-sounding capabilities. Attention is given to the AVE network in the late afternoon of March 6, 1982, after a winter storm had passed over Texas, in order to ascertain whether such temperature profile deviations from the average lapse rate as a midlevel cold pool (which should decrease the brightness of several IR channels) can be retrieved from VAS radiances. Two simple enhancements are introduced: the regression matrix is calculated using the AVE asynoptic radiosondes launched from NWS sites in the region, and a change of the statistical conditioning factor from the conservative 10/1 SNR to a more optimistic 100/1 for those VAS channels that are more sensitive to tropospheric temperature.

Chesters, Dennis↗

Millimeter wave radiative transfer studies for precipitation measurements

Scattering calculations using the discrete dipole approximation and vector radiative transfer calculations were performed to model multiparameter radar return and passive microwave emission for a simple model of a winter storm. The issue of dendrite riming was addressed by computing scattering properties of thin ice disks with varying bulk density. It was shown that C-band multiparameter radar contains information about particle density and the number concentration of the ice particles. The radiative transfer modeling indicated that polarized multifrequency passive microwave emission may be used to infer some properties of ice hydrometers. Detailed radar modeling and vector radiative transfer modeling is in progress to enhance the understanding of simultaneous radar and radiometer measurements, as in the case of the proposed TRMM field program. A one-dimensional cloud model will be used to simulate the storm structure in detail and study the microphysics, such as size and density. Multifrequency polarized radiometer measurements from the SSMI satellite instrument will be analyzed in relation to dual-frequency and dual-polarization radar measurements.

Vivekanandan, J.↗

Characterizing multiscale variability of zero intermittency in spatial rainfall

In this paper the authors study how zero intermittency in spatial rainfall, as described by the fraction of area covered by rainfall, changes with spatial scale of rainfall measurement or representation. A statistical measure of intermittency that describes the size distribution of 'voids' (nonrainy areas imbedded inside rainy areas) as a function of scale is also introduced. Morphological algorithms are proposed for reconstructing rainfall intermittency at fine scales given the intermittency at coarser scales. These algorithms are envisioned to be useful in hydroclimatological studies where the rainfall spatial variability at the subgrid scale needs to be reconstructed from the results of synoptic- or mesoscale meteorological numerical models. The developed methodologies are demsonstrated and tested using data from a severe springtime midlatitude squall line and a mild midlatitude winter storm monitored by a meteorological radar in Norman, Oklahoma.

Kumar, Praveen↗

Canaveral National Seashore Water Quality and Aquatic Resource Inventory

Mosquito Lagoon is a shallow, bar-built estuary located on the east central Florida Coast, primarily within the KSC boundary. The lagoon and watershed cover approximately 327 sq km (79422 acres) .The Lagoon occupies 159 sq km (37853 acres). Water depths average approximately 1m. The lagoon volume is approximately 1.6 x 10(exp 8)cu m. Water quality in Mosquito Lagoon is good. Salinity data typically range between 20 ppt and 35 ppt. The lowest value recorded was 4.5 ppt and the highest value was 37 ppt. Water temperatures fluctuate 2 - 3 C over a 24 h period. Cold front passage can rapidly alter water temperatures by 5 - 10 C or more in a short period of time. The highest temperature was 33.4 C and the lowest temperature was 8.8 C after a winter storm. Dissolved oxygen concentrations ranged from a low of 0.4 mg/l to a high of 15.3 mg/l. Extended periods of measurements below the Florida Department of Environmental Protection criteria of 4.0 mg/l were observed in fall and spring months suggesting high system respiration and oxygen demand. Metals such as antimony, arsenic, molybdenum and mercury were report as below detection limits for all samples. Cadmium, copper, chromium, silver, and zinc were found to be periodically above the Florida Department of Environmental Protection criteria for Class II and Class III surface waters.

Hall, C. R.↗

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

Satellite-Based Assessment of Sediment Transport, Distribution and Resuspension Associated with the Atchafalaya River Discharge Plume

Tbe Atchafalaya River discharges over 80 x 10(exp 6) tons of sediment annually onto the broad shallow continental shelf of central and western Louisiana. Satellite imagery from the NOAA AVHRR and Terra MODIS are used in this paper to quantify suspended sediment concentrations and to assess sediment transport processes along the Louisiana shelf under varying conditions of river discharge and wind forcing. The image data reveal the maim sources of sediment, direction of transport amd regional extent of wind-wave resuspension. The prevailing easterly winds transport much of the suspended sediments westward toward the Chernier Plain in a well-defined mud stream. Westerly flow rates of 25-50 cm/s (21-43 km per day) have been measured, yielding a transit time of about 1.5-2.5 days from the mouth of Atchafalaya Bay to the Chernier Plain. Progradation rates along the Chernier Plain coast reach 50 m per year. The westward-flowing Atchafalaya "mud stream" is rapidly disrupted by westerly winds and northerly winds, which accompany frequent winter storms and less frequent tropical storms or hurricanes. During these events, the coastal current reverses and sediments are rapidly transported out of Atchafalaya Bay and offshore where substantial sedimentary deposits can also be found. Offshore sediment fluxes during storm events, in combination with wind-wave resuspension, can result in surface sediment "plumes" extending 70 km offshore and 150 km alongshore. Field measurements of suspended sediment concentrations, current and wind velocities, and directions are used to assess sediment transport processes on the shelf. These combined processes are extending the pro-delta deposits of the Atchafalaya-Wax Lake delta complex far onto the continental shelf and supplying sediments for a renewal era of progradation along tbe downdrift Chernier Plain coast.

Walker, Nan↗

Comparison of Climatological Planetary Boundary Layer Depth Estimates Using the GEOS-5 AGCM

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, including those influencing the PBL depth, control many aspects of weather and climate and accurate models of these processes are important for forecasting changes in the future. However, evaluation of model estimates of PBL depth are difficult because no consensus on PBL depth definition currently exists and various methods for estimating this parameter can give results that differ by hundreds of meters or more. In order to facilitate comparisons between the Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-5) and other modeling and observational systems, seven PBL depth estimation methods are used to produce PBL depth climatologies and are evaluated and compared here. All seven methods evaluate the same atmosphere so all differences are related solely to the definition chosen. These methods depend on the scalar diffusivity, bulk and local Richardson numbers, and the diagnosed horizontal turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Results are aggregated by climate class in order to allow broad generalizations. The various PBL depth estimations give similar midday results with some exceptions. One method based on horizontal turbulent kinetic energy produces deeper PBL depths in the winter associated with winter storms. In warm, moist conditions, the method based on a bulk Richardson number gives results that are shallower than those given by the methods based on the scalar diffusivity. The impact of turbulence driven by radiative cooling at cloud top is most significant during the evening transition and along several regions across the oceans and methods sensitive to this cooling produce deeper PBL depths where it is most active. Additionally, Richardson number-based methods collapse better at night than methods that depend on the scalar diffusivity. This feature potentially affects tracer transport.

Planetary Boundary Layer Depth↗

The High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer on the GLOBAL HAWK: From Technology Development to Science Discovery

This paper presents results from the High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) during three recent field campaigns on the Global Hawk Unmanned Ariel Vehicles (UAV), focusing on the enabling technology that led to unprecedented observations of significant weather phenomenon, such as thermodynamic evolution of the tropical cyclone core during rapid intensification and the high resolution three dimensional mapping of several atmospheric river events. HAMSR is a 25 channel cross-track scanning microwave sounder with channels near the 60 and 118 GHz oxygen lines and the 183 GHz water vapor line. HAMSR was originally designed and built at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as a technology demonstrator in 1998. Subsequent to this, HAMSR participated in three NASA hurricane field campaigns, CAMEX-4, TCSP and NAMMA. Beginning in 2008, HAMSR was extensively upgraded to deploy on the NASA Global Hawk (GH) platform and serve as an asset to the NASA sub-orbital program. HAMSR has participated on the Global Hawk during the 2010 Genesis and Rapid Intensification (GRIP) campaign, the 2011 Winter Storms and Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR) campaign and is currently participating in the NASA Ventures Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign (2011-2015).

NASA sub-orbital program↗

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool Development

This is a PowerPoint presentation covering airline operations center (AOC) research. It reviews a dispatcher decision support tool called the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT). FACT gathers information about winter weather onto one screen and includes predictive abilities. FACT should prove to be useful for airline dispatchers and airport personnel when they manage winter storms and their effect on air traffic. This material is very similar to other previously approved presentations.

airlines↗

NASA Airline Operations Research Center

This is a PowerPoint presentation NASA airline operations center (AOC) research. It includes information on using IBM Watson in the AOC. It also reviews a dispatcher decision support tool call the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT). FACT gathers information about winter weather onto one screen and includes predictive abilities. It should prove to be useful for airline dispatchers and airport personnel when they manage winter storms and their effect on air traffic. This material is very similar to other previously approved presentations with the same title.

NASA↗

Flood Analysis of the Thomas Flood in California Using NASA Data in a GIS

In December 2017, the Thomas Fire burned areas in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties in California, consuming 281,893 acres (440 square miles), and becoming the largest wildfire in California history. On January 8, 2018, a winter storm made landfall in Santa Barbara County, releasing more than 5 inches of rain onto the same scarred area, causing San Ysidro and Montecito Creeks to overflow and leading to devastating flash flooding and debris flows by January 9, 2018. Several areas that were not typically prone to flooding were at risk due to the higher than usual flows in the nearby streams and creeks. The unprecedented flooding killed at least 20 people and left several others missing. NASA's Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) manages Earth Observation satellites and the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), where the data is stored and processed. This poster presents the use of satellite data from NASA's inventory that have the potential for use in identification and analysis of forest fire risk and subsequent after-effects within a geographic information system (GIS).

science↗

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool

FACT is a software program that provides important information about winter weather operations to airline dispatchers and airport personnel. FACT has a "quad" design and shows various maps, text, and tabular information. It also has a team messaging capability. It is meant to be used by airline dispatchers and airport personnel to manage winter storms.

weather↗