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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Water Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from bodies of water based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from water that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 30 meters was applied in counties without specific water setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Transmission Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from transmission. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from transmission infrastructure that an energy project may be developed. As of April 2022, no ordinances were discovered for any counties. Such ordinances are likely to arise as regulations continue to expand. Therefore, this dataset applies a 30-meter setback, sourced from trends in other infrastructure. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Structure Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from structures based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a structure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 61 meters was applied in counties without specific structure setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Road Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from roads based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a road that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 30 meters was applied in counties without specific road setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Railroad Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from railroads. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a railroad that an energy project may be developed. As of April 2022, no ordinances were discovered for any counties. Such ordinances are likely to arise as regulations continue to expand. Therefore, this dataset applies a 30-meter setback, sourced from trends in other infrastructure. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Oil and Gas Pipeline Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from oil and gas pipelines. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a pipeline that an energy project may be developed. As of April 2022, no ordinances were discovered for any counties. Such ordinances are likely to arise as regulations continue to expand. Therefore, this dataset applies a 30-meter setback, sourced from trends in other infrastructure. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2025

A parcel-level evaluation of distributed wind opportunity in the contiguous United States

This study examines the potential for distributed wind (DW) energy across the contiguous United States, leveraging advancements in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's distributed wind model, dWind. The novel modeling approach described here utilizes a high-resolution dataset and analyzes over 150 million parcels, a significant improvement from prior methods that extrapolated results from a smaller random sample. This achievement is enabled through key model performance improvements, such as transitioning to multiprocessing, which reduces runtime by 97 %. This optimized, high-resolution approach allows the inspection of technology deployment potential and impact on a variety of scales tailored to individual properties and regions. The results here align with prior work showing substantial opportunity for energy generation using DW technologies. Key findings reveal a substantial increase from prior results in estimated technical and economic potential for DW. Metrics tuned to highlight economic potential also show increased incentives supporting rural adoption. Results are spatially aggregated for usability and published via the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Data Portal and a custom scenario visualization platform, aiding policymakers, industry, and property owners in assessing DW viability across various scenarios and spatial scales.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extension of the Generic Multi-Frequency Modelling Method for Type 3 Wind Turbines

Reflecting potential non-linearities of converter-based systems, especially frequency and sequence couplings, is an ongoing challenge for linearized multi-frequency models. Besides, design details are required to develop such models, which either are the intellectual property of manufacturers or require experimental tests. The generic multi-frequency modelling method has been proposed to fill this gap; however, it is only developed for converter-connected systems, e.g., Type 4 Wind Turbines (WT). This paper proposes to extend the application of the generic multi-frequency modelling method for Type 3 WTs. In this way, a theory for patterns of the couplings in Type 3 WTs is proposed. Accordingly, a group of emissions and couplings are Rotor-Speed-Dependent (RSD). The RSD emissions and couplings are particular characteristics of Type 3 WTs, which should be addressed in the generic multi-frequency models. Additionally, the proposed theory is verified by unique-worldwide experimental perturbation tests on a 2 MVA Type 3 WT using a 7 MVA grid emulator. Accordingly, a limited number of RSD couplings and emissions are observed in the test results, mainly in low frequencies (below 1 kHz). Therefore, addressing the RSD couplings is practical and important to extend the generic multi-frequency modelling for Type 3 WTs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. in this paper, we quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of -0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Considerations for the Global Commercialization of Floating Offshore Wind Energy

Floating offshore wind (FOW) has the potential to unlock access to wind resources in deep water where fixed-bottom turbines are not feasible, enabling coastal regions around the world to meet growing energy demands. Although fixed-bottom offshore wind is commercially mature, FOW, which may be needed for water deeper than 60 m, must progress in multiple ways to reach full commercial viability. In this Perspective, we examine the status of the global FOW industry's commercial development across three key areas - technical innovation, industrialization and cross-cutting value. Technical innovation has enabled FOW turbines to perform as well as fixed-bottom turbines, with the promise of future cost reductions. However, the complex architecture of FOW turbines, combining floating structures with more than 8,000 electrical and mechanical parts in wind turbines, requires industrialization efforts such as standardization and supply-chain integration to enable commercial project deployment. FOW can potentially offer unique benefits, including reduced environmental impacts and strengthened economic development in coastal regions, through substantial regional economic activity. Successful coordination across these three areas could help to position FOW as a major contributor to a competitive, reliable and resilient global energy system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

National Wind Workforce Assessment: Industry to Students [Slides]

As a part of the National Wind Workforce Assessment, four presentations have been created in conjunction with the technical report to provide more insight into key findings. The four presentations are catered towards specific stakeholder groups that include: educators, wind industry firms, students, and current wind industry employees. This presentation is intended for use by wind industry employers looking to gain insight into key levers that can influence hiring difficulty and actionable steps that can be taken to help narrow the workforce gap. The report includes the current perception of the wind industry by the potential workforce, current hiring difficulties faced by wind energy firms, and current hiring difficulties faced by the potential workforce. The hiring difficulties for wind industry employers are divided by entry level employees and non-entry-level employees and by cross sections such as firm size, location, value chain segment, and wind industry sector. Hiring challenges faced by students trying to enter the wind industry are divided by 2-year degree and certification programs, 4-year degree programs, and current wind employees.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements to Projections of Wind Turbine Blade Leading-Edge Erosion

Wind turbine blade leading-edge erosion (LEE) is a cause of increased operation and maintenance costs and decreased annual energy production. Thus, detailed, site-specific quantification of likely erosion conditions are critically needed to inform wind plant owner/operator decisions regarding mitigation strategies. Estimating the damage potential at a wind plant site requires accurate measurement of precipitation intensity, phase, droplet size distributions, wind speeds and their joint statistics. The current work quantifies the effect of disdrometer type on the characterization of LEE potential at a site in the US Southern Great Plains. using observations from three co-located disdrometers (an optical, an impact and a video disdrometer), along with hub-height wind-speed observations from a Doppler lidar and two LEE models: a kinetic energy model and the Springer model. Estimates of total kinetic energy of hydrometeor impacts over the four-year study period vary by as much as 38%, and coating lifetime derived from accumulated distance-to-failure estimates from the Springer model differ by an even greater amount, depending on disdrometer type. Damage potential at this site is concentrated in time, with 50% of impact kinetic energy occurring in 6–12 h per year, depending on which set of disdrometer observations is used. Rotor-speed curtailment during the most erosive 0.1–0.2% of 10 min periods is found to increase blade lifetimes and lead to the lowest levelized cost of energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the potential for wake steering for U.S. land-based wind power plants

The wind power plant-wide control strategy known as wake steering involves the misalignment of upstream turbines with the wind direction to deflect wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing net wind plant power production. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of wake steering for U.S. land-based wind power plants. First, we outline a method for simulating and optimizing wake steering control for existing wind plants by combining the flow redirection and induction in steady state wake steering engineering model with the U.S. Wind Turbine Database and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit wind resource dataset. Next, to better understand the potential benefits of wake steering beyond those for existing wind plants, we evaluate the relative impacts of turbine specific power, turbine spacing, and mean wind speed on energy gain and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) using a model land-based wind power plant. For a subset of 60 existing wind plants, assuming a constant turbulence intensity of 8%, wake steering was found to yield an average annual energy production (AEP) gain of 0.80%, equivalent to recovering 13.85% of baseline wake losses. Further, we present a linear approximation between baseline wake losses and AEP gains that can be used to estimate wake steering gains for other wind power plants. Highlighting additional benefits of wake steering, for the model wind power plant we found that energy gains from wake steering enabled an approximate 30% reduction in turbine spacing while keeping LCOE constant.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Representation of Horizontal Variability and Turbulence in Mesoscale Simulations of an Extended Cold-Air Pool Event

Abstract Cold-air pools (CAPs), or stable atmospheric boundary layers that form within topographic basins, are associated with poor air quality, hazardous weather, and low wind energy output. Accurate prediction of CAP dynamics presents a challenge for mesoscale forecast models in part because CAPs occur in regions of complex terrain, where traditional turbulence parameterizations may not be appropriate. This study examines the effects of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and horizontal diffusion treatment on CAP prediction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Model runs with a one-dimensional (1D) PBL scheme and Smagorinsky-like horizontal diffusion are compared with runs that use a new three-dimensional (3D) PBL scheme to calculate turbulent fluxes. Simulations are completed in a nested configuration with 3-km/750-m horizontal grid spacing over a 10-day case study in the Columbia River basin, and results are compared with observations from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Using event-averaged error metrics, potential temperature and wind speed errors are shown to decrease both with increased horizontal grid resolution and with improved treatment of horizontal diffusion over steep terrain. The 3D PBL scheme further reduces errors relative to a standard 1D PBL approach. Error reduction is accentuated during CAP erosion, when turbulent mixing plays a more dominant role in the dynamics. Last, the 3D PBL scheme is shown to reduce near-surface overestimates of turbulence kinetic energy during the CAP event. The sensitivity of turbulence predictions to the master length-scale formulation in the 3D PBL parameterization is also explored. Significance Statement In this article, we demonstrate how a new framework for modeling atmospheric turbulence improves cold pool predictions, using a case study from January 2017 in the Columbia River basin (U.S. Pacific Northwest). Cold pools are regions of cold, stagnant air that form within valleys or basins, and improved forecasts could help to mitigate the risks they pose to air quality, transportation, and wind energy production. For the chosen case study, our tests show a reduction in temperature and wind speed errors by up to a factor of 2–3 relative to standard model options. These results strongly motivate continued development of the framework as well as its application to other complex weather events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗