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DOE OSTI2021

Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report; Wind Energy Program: Fiscal Year 2021

The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC), located at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Flatirons Campus, has been a driving force in advancing wind energy technology research worldwide since its designation as a DOE national research center in 1992. Enabled by the Flatirons Campus's world-class facilities, scientists, engineers, analysts, and researchers are pushing the frontiers of science to pursue wind energy innovation. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, NREL continued to provide the technical expertise, research capabilities, and industry understanding to support DOE's ambitious climate action and research goals by advancing technology, addressing market and deployment barriers, and driving down costs with more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. One of several highlights, NREL received an R&D 100 Special Recognition Award for its Thermoplastic Resin System for Wind Turbine Blades. This breakthrough in the wind turbine manufacturing process will enable the production of recyclable blades that are stronger, longer, and less expensive, while increasing energy capture, decreasing energy and transportation costs, and increasing blade reliability. In a year when the entire U.S. economy struggled to address workforce gaps, an NREL study compared wind industry needs, training programs, and hiring practices with perspectives from students and recent college graduates. Researchers hope that, by pinpointing areas of disconnect, the expectations of employers who have difficulty filling entry-level jobs can better align with the preparation of the potential applicants who find it hard to break into the field. The lab also made numerous new data and modeling resources available in FY 2021. Recent NREL releases include a modeling tool for predicting the power performance and structural loads of wind turbines within a wind farm (FAST.Farm), a computational framework for modeling golden eagle behavior near wind farms, and 20 years of offshore wind data. Updates were also made to the widely used Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM), which couples engineering and cost models to examine system-level trade-offs. Now, bolstered by a renewed national commitment to tackle climate change and revitalize the U.S. economy through increased investment in clean energy - particularly in offshore wind energy - NREL stands poised to lead the way to a sustainable future that powers the United States with significant levels of reliable, low-cost, accessible wind energy. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL made on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during FY 2021 (between Oct. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021).

Flatirons Campus↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate change impacts on wind power generation

Wind energy is a virtually carbon-free and pollution-free electricity source, with global wind resources greatly exceeding electricity demand. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of >20% from 2000 to 2019 and is projected to increase by a further 50% by the end of 2023. Here, in this Review, we describe the factors that dictate the wind resource magnitude and variability and illustrate the tools and techniques that are being used to make projections of wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions. Natural variability due to the action of internal climate modes appears to dominate over global-warming-induced non-stationarity over most areas with large wind energy installations or potential. However, there is evidence for increased wind energy resources by the end of the current century in northern Europe and the US Southern Great Plains. New technology trends are changing the sensitivity of wind energy to global climate non-stationarity and, thus, present new challenges and opportunities for innovative research. The evolution of climate modelling to increasingly address mesoscale processes is providing improved projections of both wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions, and will contribute to continued reductions in the levelized cost of energy from wind power generation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Turbine scale and siting considerations in wind plant layout optimization and implications for capacity density

Improvements in wind energy technology, reduced costs, and ambitious clean energy goals have led to projections of high wind contribution in coming years. Developing methodologies to design wind plants with a variety of siting constraints and turbine sizes helps enable high wind penetration, and gain a better understanding of how wind plants are sensitive to setback constraints and turbine design. In this paper, we present a two-step optimization method to simultaneously determine the optimal number of turbines and their locations in a wind plant domain divided into many small, discrete parcels. We present the optimized performance metrics of a wind plant optimized with different turbine sizes and ratings, and with different siting restrictions within the wind plant. Our results indicate that taller and larger turbines are more sensitive to increasing siting constraints. We also compare the optimal wind plant layouts and performance for wind plants optimized for minimum COE and maximum profit. Wind plants optimized for profit had 130%-190% of the capacity of plants optimized for COE, which demonstrates that the optimal results are greatly affected by the objective function, which should be carefully considered. Finally, in this paper we demonstrate the effect of increasing siting constraints on wind plant capacity density, and how the results change when different land areas are used to calculate capacity density. When using the entire wind plant boundary area to determine capacity density, increasing siting constraints decreases the capacity density. However, when we only use the available area (the area left after removing the siting constraints) to calculate the capacity density, increasing the siting constraints increases capacity density. This is a critical insight because of how capacity density is typically defined and used in research, and has important implications for assessment of technical potential and capacity expansion modeling, as well as future wind deployment potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT)

This report provides technical documentation and background on the newly-developed Wind Operations and Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT) software. WOMBAT is an open-source model that can be used to obtain cost estimates for operations and maintenance of land-based or offshore wind power plants. The software was designed to be flexible and modular to allow for implementation of new strategies and technological innovations for wind plant maintenance. WOMBAT uses a process-based simulation approach to model day-to-day operations, repairs, and weather conditions. High-level outputs from WOMBAT, including time-based availability and annual operating costs, are found to agree with published results from other models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Operations and Maintenance Roadmap for U.S. Offshore Wind: Enabling a Cost-Effective and Sustainable U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Industry Through Innovative Operations and Maintenance

The United States is currently targeting 30GW of offshore wind to be installed by 2030, and 150GW by 2050. Even considering future turbine sizes, this represents thousands of new turbines installed in a diverse set of environments, each with their unique design, installation, and maintenance challenges. While much can be learned from European and Asian experience with offshore wind over the past two decades, it is important to understand the unique circumstances of the U.S. This document explores operations and maintenance of offshore wind energy, specific to the U.S. and attempts to lay out a roadmap for needed activities to ensure reliability of future installations. The roadmap was informed through dozens of interviews with a wide cross-section of the industry, including representatives from OEMs, owner/operators, service companies, certification agencies, service providers, and researchers. The roadmap first describes the problem by component - blades, drivetrain and nacelle, structures and foundations, and electrical systems - through a look at current practices and opportunities for improvement in the areas of Failure Mode Analysis and Mitigation; Monitoring, Sensing, and Inspection; and Maintenance Execution. Crosscutting areas of Digitalization, Robotics and Automation, Prognostics and Health Management and O&M Optimization, Experimentation and Demonstration, Standardization, and Design Optimization Considering Reliability and O&M are then discussed. Finally, the roadmap summarizes all of these topics with recommendations for short (1-3 years), medium (4-7 years), and long term (8-12 years) activities, with a description of needed public and private sector contributions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design of a 3.4-MW wind turbine with integrated plasma actuator-based load control

Historically, cost reduction in wind energy has been accomplished by increasing hub heights and rotor diameters to capture more energy per turbine. The growth in rotor and turbine costs with increasing turbine sizes is also driven by the additional structure that must be added to withstand unsteady aerodynamic loads caused by turbulence, gusts, wind shear, misaligned yaw, upwind wakes, and the tower shadow. In this paper, we present a holistic design solution to integrate active load control using a controllable Gurney flap based on plasma actuators. We illustrate the design solution for a land-based 3.4-MW wind turbine rotor. Comparisons to a baseline reference 3.4-MW wind turbine show significant load reduction (15–18% DEL reduction for flap-wise blade root moments), rotor mass reduction (5–8%), and LCOE reduction (1.16–3.11%). To achieve these results, a comprehensive sequential-iterative design procedure is introduced to integrate the controllable Gurney flap into the turbine design and to drive the design solution toward the best LCOE reduction solution. Results are presented for mapping fatigue load reductions into cost reductions. In addition, an evaluation of active load control extended from Region-III to also include Region-II showed a further 34% reduction in DEL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Process-based balance of system cost modeling for offshore wind power plants in the United States

This paper describes the development of a process-based and open-source balance of system cost model that provides the capability to evaluate both existing and novel offshore wind technologies. Individual design and installation steps are represented with bottom-up engineering models that compute times and costs associated with the process; furthermore, operational constraints are assigned to each process so that delays caused by weather and presence of marine mammals may be accounted for in the overall project timeline. The model structure, assumptions, inputs, and results are vetted with industry partners and compared against actual projects for validation. Installation times show reasonable agreement with real data. Project cost sensitivities are investigated to compute the system-level impact of different design choices. First, individual vessel efficiencies are computed for varying numbers of installation vessels and weather time series to show the diminishing returns of more than two feeder barges. Then, array cable capital costs and installation times are determined for a representative project with different turbine sizes. These values quantify the cost-benefit tradeoffs and show a net-cost savings of decreasing numbers of turbines, increased turbine spacing, and fewer turbine terminations. These results demonstrate that the balance of system model features the accuracy, functionality, and accessibility to serve as the foundation for a wide range of analyses to identify cost reduction potentials for offshore wind energy in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

2020 System Optimization Awardee: Carter Wind Turbines

With support from the Competitiveness Improvement Project's System Optimization Award, Carter Wind Energy aims to lower the cost of distributed wind technology and expand deployment. To do so, the company will improve the cost-effectiveness and reliability of midsize wind turbines for remote, off-grid power applications, creating new wind energy deployment opportunities worldwide. This fact sheet provides an overview of Carter Wind Energy's project, how the company will achieve the goals of the award, and how the project fits within the overall Competitiveness Improvement Project.

CIP↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Metocean Reference Site near the Massachusetts and Rhode Island Wind Energy Areas

This project developed the first long-term U.S.-based offshore MetOcean Reference Site (MORS-1) by capitalizing on a unique combination of one of the few existing publicly available offshore wind energy metocean observational campaigns in the United States and the only existing research-grade offshore fixed tower. Data collected at MORS-1 has facilitated improved wind resource assessments, improved short-term power production estimates, and reduced costs for sensor validation and calibration efforts, which translate into reduced overall wind energy project risk and cost for developers. Now operational, MORS-1 serves the needs of both industry and researchers using a nonprofit, joint industry-academic partnership model. Led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the MORS-1 development effort focused on creating both a recognized organizational structure that will ensure support of the MORS-1 by the wider wind energy industry and research community, and a highly validated data collection and sensor validation facility that will serve as the premier location for cost- and uncertainty-reducing resource characterization and research efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of wind-farm control strategies under realistic offshore wind conditions: wake quantities of interest

Wind-farm control strategies aim to increase the efficiency, and therefore lower the levelized cost of energy, of wind farms. This is done by using turbine settings such as the yaw angle, blade pitch angles, or generator torque to manipulate the wake that negatively affects downstream turbines in the farm. Two inherently different wind-farm control methods have been identified in the literature: wake steering (WS) and active wake mixing (AWM). As one of two companion papers focused on understanding practical aspects of these two wind-farm control strategies using large-eddy simulation (LES), we below analyze the wake quantities of interest for a single wind turbine performing WS and AWM, while the companion article (Frederik et al., 2025) focuses on turbine quantities of interest including power and structural loads for the same computational setup and also includes two-turbine arrays with full and partial wake overlap. The simulations, which are based in the LES solver AMR-Wind, are tailored to have inflow conditions representative of measurements from a site off the East Coast of the US, including with strong veer and low turbulence. The turbine, which is modeled in OpenFAST and coupled to the LES, is the IEA 15 MW, an open-source offshore design. After presenting an overview of the wake recovery for the different wake-control cases, the analysis probes the fluid-dynamic causes for the different performance of the arrays reported in the companion article by examining control volumes around the wakes and the budget of the mean-flow kinetic energy (MKE) within these volumes. In the high veer environment considered, the MKE recovery is dominated by mean convection, and this is shown to especially benefit the WS strategy when a neighboring turbine is directly downstream: there is ≈65 % more available power for a downstream turbine than in the baseline case, and this power is gained primarily through mean convection on the left-tip and top-tip faces of the control volume. However, the case with imperfect knowledge of the exact wind direction favors the pulse-type AWM strategy, largely because of ≈9 % increased turbulent entrainment from aloft versus the baseline that could be related to an apparent resistance to skewing in the pulsed wake. The general reduced effectiveness of helix-type and other individual-pitch-based AWM strategies for inflow with high veer and low turbulence as reported in the companion paper is due, in part, to low magnitudes of phase-averaged turbulent entrainment. Two main findings of this study are thus that veer has a significant impact on the effectiveness of different wake-control strategies and that pulse-type AWM may be a useful strategy when the objective is power maximization in realistic, offshore flow environments with imperfect knowledge of the exact wake overlap position on the downstream turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Annual Electricity Production and Levelized Cost of Energy from the US East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

Offshore wind energy development along the East Coast of the US is proceeding quickly as a result of large areas with an excellent wind resource, low water depths and proximity to large electricity markets. Careful planning of wind turbine deployments in these offshore wind energy lease areas (LA) is required to maximize power output and to minimize wake losses between neighboring wind farms as well as those internal to each wind farm. Here, we used microscale wind modeling with two wake parameterizations to evaluate the potential annual energy production (AEP) and wake losses in the different LA areas, and we developed and applied a levelized cost of energy (LCoE) model to quantify the impact of different wind turbine layouts on LCoE. The modeling illustrated that if the current suite of LA is subject to deployment of 15 MW wind turbines at a spacing of 1.85 km, they will generate 4 to 4.6% of total national electricity demand. The LCoE ranged from $68 to $102/MWh depending on the precise layout selected, which is cost competitive with many other generation sources. The scale of the wind farms that will be deployed greatly exceed those currently operating and mean that wake-induced power losses are considerable but still relatively poorly constrained. AEP and LCoE exhibited significant dependence on the precise wake model applied. For the largest LA, the AEP differed by over 10% depending on the wake model used, leading to a $10/MWh difference in LCoE for the wind turbine layout with 1.85 km spacing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

2020 Component Innovation Awardee: Carter Wind Turbines

With support from the Competitiveness Improvement Project's Component Innovation Award, Carter Wind Energy aims to address the need for lower-cost, more-reliable distributed wind energy generation. The company plans to increase efficiency and improve the energy capture of its Carter Model 300 midsize, self-erecting wind turbine. This fact sheet provides an overview of Carter Wind Energy's project, how the company will achieve the goals of the award, and how the project fits within the overall Competitiveness Improvement Project.

CIP↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind Beneath Your Wings

Advances in wind turbine technology and the need for renewable energy resources drive the rapid expansion of the wind industry in the Unites States and abroad. In 2019, wind energy overtook hydropower as the most-used source of renewable energy generation in the country, producing 300 million megawatt-hours of electricity or roughly 6% of the nation's total power output. Continuing this rapid expansion while also protecting wildlife requires more efficient and cost-effective wind-energy-wildlife impact monitoring and minimization technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) wind energy program offers unparalleled expertise in environmental science and wildlife impact mitigation, helping project partners develop and validate their ideas.

Altamont Pass↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tools Assessing Performance

For the distributed wind industry, it can be challenging to accurately predict the performance and annual energy production of projects prior to their installation. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project aims to improve wind resource characterization, thereby reducing the uncertainty of project performance and financing costs, increasing consumer confidence, and lowering the levelized cost of distributed wind energy. A collaborative effort among DOE National Laboratories, TAP will create a computational framework that provides the distributed wind community with access to newly developed wind resource data and modeling capabilities. These capabilities will allow users to perform timely and accurate performance assessments for distributed wind projects at locations across the United States.

wind, distributed, tools, performance↗