Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “wildfire potential”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

Applying Deep Learning for Wildfire Identification: Economical and Accessible Solutions Leveraging Small Datasets

Wildfires significantly impact human health, air quality, visibility, weather, and climate change and cause substantial economic losses. While state and county-operated air quality monitors provide critical insights during wildfires, they are not available in all regions. This highlights the need for affordable, accessible tools that allow the general public to assess air quality impacts. In this study, we apply machine learning with deep neural networks to diagnose air quality rapidly from sky images taken at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, WA, USA. Using a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework, we trained a deep learning model to classify air quality indices based on sky images. By leveraging transfer learning, our approach fine-tunes a pre-trained model on a small dataset of sky images, significantly reducing training time while maintaining high accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of deep learning to provide rapid air quality diagnostics during wildfire episodes, offering early warnings to the public and enabling timely mitigation strategies, particularly for vulnerable populations. Additionally, we show that lower respiratory infections pose the highest health risk during acute smoke exposures. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) from wildfire particles further exacerbate health risks by triggering inflammation and other adverse effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wildfire‐Smoke Aerosols Lead to Increased Light Use Efficiency Among Agricultural and Restored Wetland Land Uses in California's Central Valley

Abstract There are few observational studies measuring the ecosystem‐scale productivity effects of changes in incident diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR diffuse ), especially related to wildfire smoke. Climate change‐induced increases to the duration and intensity of fire conditions have made smoke a common occurrence across western North America, with largely unquantified ecosystem feedbacks. Under equivalent amounts of radiation, increased atmospheric particulate matter could lead to a boost in productivity as scattering redistributes photons throughout multilayer canopies. In this work, we leverage a meso‐network of eddy covariance measurement sites across a unique array of managed and restored C 3 and C 4 canopy types to understand how recent wildfire smoke affected ecosystem productivity during the summer of 2018, an especially smoky year in the agriculturally productive Central Valley. We find that diffuse PAR diffuse increased by more than a third compared to the previous growing season, while total PAR was only slightly diminished. These conditions caused nearly a doubling of light use efficiency over the range of diffuse fraction observed, with the highest sensitivity to diffuse fraction exhibited by corn and alfalfa crops. We utilized an empirical model to assess the trade‐off between enhanced diffuse fraction and reduced total PAR. Under mean radiation conditions, daily integrated gross ecosystem productivity increased by 1.2–4.2% compared to the previous growing season. Finally, we explore the potential negative effect of heightened ozone, a copollutant often associated with wildfire. In addition to the effects of wildfire smoke, the results of this natural experiment can help validate future predictions of aerosol‐productivity feedbacks.

Hemes, Kyle S.↗

Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

The occurrence of extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) has been known to be influenced by climate modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other variations in tropospheric circulation such as stationary waves and blocking. However, the extent to which the subseasonal remote tropical driver influences summer heat extremes and fire weather conditions across the PNW remains elusive. Our investigation reveals that the occurrence of heat extremes and associated fire-conducive weather conditions in the PNW is significantly heightened during the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) phases 6-7, by ~50–120% relative to the seasonal probability. The promotion of these heat extremes is primarily attributed to the enhanced diabatic heating over the tropical central-to-eastern North Pacific, which generates a wave train traveling downstream toward North America, resulting in a prominent high-pressure system over the PNW. The ridge, subsequently, promotes surface warming over the region primarily through increased surface radiative heating and enhanced adiabatic warming. The results suggest a potential pathway to improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of heatwaves and wildfire risks in the PNW by improving the representation of BSISO heating over the tropical-to-eastern North Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗

Potential bioavailability of representative pyrogenic organic matter compounds in comparison to natural dissolved organic matter pools

Abstract. Pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) from wildfires impacts river corridors globally and is widely regarded as resistant to biological degradation. Though recent work suggests PyOM may be more bioavailable than historically perceived, estimating bioavailability across its chemical spectrum remains elusive. To address this knowledge gap, we assessed potential bioavailability of representative PyOM compounds relative to ubiquitous dissolved organic matter (DOM) with a substrate-explicit model. The range of potential bioavailability of PyOM was greater than natural DOM; however, the predicted thermodynamics, metabolic rates, and carbon use efficiencies (CUEs) overlapped significantly between all OM pools. Compound type (e.g., natural versus PyOM) had approximately 6-fold less impact on predicted respiration rates than simulated carbon and oxygen limitations. Within PyOM, the metabolism of specific chemistries differed strongly between unlimited and oxygen-limited conditions – degradations of anhydrosugars, phenols, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were more favorable under oxygen limitation than other molecules. Notably, amino sugar-like, protein-like, and lignin-like PyOM had lower carbon use efficiencies relative to natural DOM of the same classes, indicating potential impacts in process-based model representations. Overall, our work illustrates how similar PyOM bioavailability may be to that of natural DOM in the river corridor, furthering our understanding of how PyOM may influence riverine biogeochemical cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Future Pathways for Arctic Forest Fires

Wildfires are expected to become more common and more severe in the Arctic states due to climate change. Main cause for the fires is human activity, even in the boreal and Arctic forests. Therefore, activities such forest management and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness, can have a significant impact on future wildfire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of these factors we have created pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 for the Arctic states. We explore high and low fire activity and risk pathways for all the Arctic states and suggest most our best guess pathways for each state separately. The low activity and fire risk pathway assumes active fire suppression via population participation and official land management, efficient fuel treatments to reduce fire risk, and active firefighting. The high activity and fire risk pathway assumes the opposite due to lack of government and community response, with addition of lacking response to climate-driven changes to wildfire risks. In the Nordic countries, human ignition sources, such as timber extraction, tourism, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In addition to these in Canada and Alaska, expansion of agriculture increases the likelihood of open burning of agricultural waste, increasing risk of the fire spreading to wildlands. Drier fuels due to climate change increase the risk of fires, and there is a growing risk of extreme heat conditions, creating favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra (specifically grassland) fires, with potential to occur in hard-to-reach locations for firefighting. In short, policy actions and education play a crucial role in future wildfire management and adaptation.

Future↗

Terrestrial carbon dynamics in an era of increasing wildfire

In an increasingly flammable world, wildfire is altering the terrestrial carbon balance. However, the degree to which novel wildfire regimes disrupt biological function remains unclear. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of above and below ground processes that govern carbon loss and recovery across diverse ecosystems. In this study, we find that intensifying wildfire regimes are increasingly exceeding biological thresholds of resilience, causing ecosystems to convert to a lower carbon-carrying capacity. Growing evidence suggests that plants compensate for fire damage by allocating carbon below ground to access nutrients released by fire, while wildfire selects for microbial communities with rapid growth rates and the ability to metabolize pyrolyzed carbon. Determining controls on carbon dynamics following wildfire requires integration of experimental and modeling frameworks across scales and ecosystems. Fire severity is expected to increase as a result of warming. This will potentially amplify climate change due to its impact on the carbon cycle. This Review discusses ecosystem carbon loss and recovery following wildfire, and highlights where further work is needed to inform model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated into standard fuel models accessible to the FARSITE fire spread simulator. The FARSITE model and BEHAVE are considered industry standards for fire behavior analysis. Anderson level fuels map, generated using a binary decision tree classifier are available for multiple dates in the Santa Monica Mountains and at least one date for Santa Barbara. Fuel maps that will fill in the areas between Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains study sites are in progress, as part of a NASA Regional Earth Science Application Center, the Southern California Wildfire Hazard Center. Species-level maps, were supplied to fire managing agencies (Los Angeles County Fire, California Department of Forestry). Research results were published extensively in the refereed and non-refereed literature. Educational outreach included funding of several graduate students, undergraduate intern training and an article featured in the California Alliance for Minorities Program (CAMP) Quarterly Journal.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Decadal-Scale Vegetation Change Driven by Salinity at Leading Edge of Rising Sea Level

As sea levels rise, low-lying coastal forests increasingly are subject to stressors such as inundation and saltwater exposure. At long timescales (for example, centuries), the extent of inundation and saltwater exposure will increase; however, on a decadal timescale, the role of these drivers may differ in both magnitude and direction. To investigate the drivers of decadal-scale vegetation change, we measured the changes in five metrics of vegetation composition and structure between 2003/2004 and 2016/ 2017 at 98 plots distributed across a vegetation gradient from coastal forest to brackish marshes (< 0.5–18 ppt). We used elevation as a proxy of inundation vulnerability and soil sodium concentration as a proxy of saltwater exposure, and we investigated relationships between these two variables and the change in vegetation conditions between the two sampling periods. Soil sodium concentration was a significant predictor of vegetation change for all five vegetation metrics, whereas the effect of elevation was not significant for any of the metrics. The one site that was affected by wildfire twice during the duration of the study shifted almost completely from forest to marsh with limited regeneration ofwoody vegetation observed in 2016/ 2017. Our results show that salinization in our system is a more important driver of vegetation change than inundation potential. Furthermore, the effects of drought-induced salinization could be amplified by the elevated risk of wildfire during droughts. Forecasting the response of coastal wetlands to rising sea levels will require a better understanding of the individual and combined effects of salinity, droughts, and wildfires on vegetation.

Taillie, Paul J.↗

A Scalable Framework for Post Fire Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Using Satellite Precipitation Data

Wildfire is a global phenomenon that has dramatic effects on erosion and flood potential. On steep slopes, burned areas are more likely to experience significant overland flow during heavy rainfall leading to post fire debris flows (PFDFs). Previous work establishes methods for PFDF hazard assessment, often relying on regional-scale parameterizations with in-situ rainfall measurements to categorize hazard as a function of meteorological and surface properties. We present a globally scalable approach to extend the benefit these models provide to new areas. Our new model relies on publicly available satellite-based inputs with a global extent to provide first order hazard assessments of recently burned areas. Our results show it is possible to identify the conditions relevant for PFDF-initiation processes across a variety of physiographic settings. Improvements to satellite borne rainfall intensity data and increased availability of PFDF occurrence data worldwide are expected to enhance model skill and applicability further.

Wildfire↗

Córdoba Wildland Fires: Assessing Fire Risk Factors in Córdoba, Argentina using Earth Observations

In recent years, Córdoba, Argentina has experienced intensified wildfire activity, with fires in 2020 alone scorching over 300,000 hectares within the province. Potential causes for the increased burn area include climate change, the expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI), and inadequate fire management practices. Previous studies have produced fire frequency maps for the region, but gaps remain in understanding the environmental parameters influencing fire behavior and growth. We partnered with the Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) to address these gaps by utilizing NASA Earth observing data to analyze key wildfire risk factors. Using a combination of data inputs from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and Aqua/Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), we created a ten-year baseline using environmental variables to determine anomalies that influenced the fires of 2020. Baseline data were used to calculate the statistical significance of the environmental factors as precursors to wildfires. We found that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation were the strongest indicators for the September 2020 wildfires. Using the environmental risk factors, we created a wildfire risk map for the province of Córdoba, which can be used to enhance our partner’s fire management strategies and decision-making processes.

wildland fires↗

Burn Intensity Drives the Alteration of Phenolic Lignin to (Poly) Aromatic Hydrocarbons as Revealed by Pyrolysis Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry (Py-GC/MS)

High-intensity wildfires alter the chemical composition of organic matter, which is expected to be distinctly different from low-intensity prescribed fires. In this study, we used pyrolysis gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS), in conjunction with solid-state 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, to assess chemical alterations from three wildfires and a long-term frequent prescribed fire site. Our results showed that black ash formed under moderate intensity burns contained less aromatic (ArH), polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), and nitrogen-containing compounds (Ntg) but more lignin (LgC) and phenol compounds (PhC), compared to white ash formed under high intensity burns. Both 13 C NMR and FT-IR confirmed a higher relative percentage of carboxyl carbon in white ash, indicating the potential for higher water solubility and more mobile carbon, relative to black ash. Compared to wildfires, ash from low-intensity prescribed fire contained less ArH, PAH, and Ntg and more LgC and PhC. Controlled laboratory burning trials indicated that organic matter alteration was sensitive to the burn temperature, but not related to the fuel type (pine vs fir) nor oxygen absence/presence at high burn temperatures. This study concludes that higher burn temperatures resulted in higher (poly)aromatic carbon/nitrogen and lower lignin/phenol compounds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I): Pathfinder for Satellite Capabilities and Airborne Science

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) is an existing ultraspectral infrared sounder flown on high-altitude aircraft that provides high spectral and spatial resolution measurements which continue to advance understanding of science critical for weather, climate, chemistry, and radiation applications. NAST-I provides high-spatial linear resolution equal to 13% of the aircraft altitude at nadir (i.e., 2.6 km IFOV on the ground from an aircraft altitude of 20 km), and high-spectral resolution (0.25 cm -1 ) measurements within the spectral region of 645–2700 cm -1 . The NAST-I suborbital system serves as a spaceborne instrument simulator and pathfinder for future satellite capabilities and airborne science experiments. Here we present some groundbreaking capabilities of NAST-I measurements and corresponding geophysical retrievals and their potential benefits toward improved atmospheric state and composition characterizations needed for air quality, wildfire, and other science applications.

NAST-I↗

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (Nast-I): Existing Technology for New Science and Application

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) is an existing ultraspectral infrared sounder flown on high-altitude aircraft that provides high spectral and spatial resolution measurements which continue to advance understanding of science critical for weather, climate, chemistry, and radiation applications. NAST-I provides high-spatial linear resolution equal to 13% of the aircraft altitude at nadir (i.e., 2.6 km IFOV on the ground from an aircraft altitude of 20 km), and high-spectral resolution (0.25 cm-1) measurements within the spectral region of 645–2700 cm-1. The NAST-I suborbital system serves as a spaceborne instrument simulator and pathfinder for future satellite capabilities and airborne science experiments. Present herein are some groundbreaking capabilities of NAST-I measurements and corresponding geophysical retrievals and their potential benefits toward improved atmospheric state and composition characterizations needed for air quality, wildfire, and other science applications and, in particular, for enhanced Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) characterization and understanding.

Remote sensor↗

Composition Reanalyses at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion 2018 and 2022 report the recovery of Antarctic ozone, consistent with diminishing concentrations of halogens in the stratosphere. Both the size and the depth of the springtime ozone holes exhibit downward trends, particularly in September. Superimposed on the recovery trend are significant year-to-year fluctuations arising from dynamical variability potentially influenced by climate forcing and volcanic eruptions. Since 2018 the Antarctic stratosphere has experienced a wild parade of austral spring seasons with a sudden stratospheric warming and exceptionally high ozone in 2019 followed by large and long-lasting ozone holes in the following years, prompting questions about the speed and detectability of Antarctic ozone recovery and its potential connections to human-induced climate change. From the Australian New Years’ wildfires of 2020 to volcanic aerosols to the unprecedented injection of water vapor by the Hunga volcanic eruption, recent scientific literature on the subject investigates many factors that may or may not have contributed to this remarkable interannual variability. This presentation summarizes dynamical influences on springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone in recent years and discusses these results in the context of long-term trends. In particular, this work seeks to isolate dynamical and chemical contributions to the Antarctic springs since 2019 using a consistent methodological framework. Our analysis uses constituent and meteorological fields from the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) in combination with data from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer and from ozone sondes. Using the high spatial and temporal resolution of M2-SCREAM, we analyze the daily evolution of southern polar ozone, HCl, N2O, and water vapor in dynamical flow-following coordinates relative to the location, size, and shape of the polar vortex. For vertically integrated stratospheric ozone we emphasize the importance of the wave-influenced geometry of the polar vortex and its vertical alignment. The ultimate purpose of this project is to contribute to the quantification of the speed of the Antarctic ozone recovery and associated uncertainties.

Krzysztof Wargan↗