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NASA NTRS1992

Nonadiabatic transport features in the outer cusp region

The dayside to nightside circulation of plasma along the magnetopause inside the magnetosphere is examined by means of three-dimensional single-particle codes. It is demonstrated that particles incident upon the outer cusp region experience transient non-adiabatic motions, owing to a localized minimum in the field magnitude. Here, possibly large magnetic moment changes yield injection into the loss cone of fractions of the incoming population or, alternatively, enhanced bouncing motions at high altitudes. It is shown that particles gaining access to the magnetotail over the polar cap are progressively extracted from the weak field region by the large-scale convection electric field. In this latter case, the trajectory simulations suggest an implicit 'entry boundary' into the nightside magnetosphere, which corresponds to the sunward edge of field lines featuring monotonic decrease of the field magnitude along their length.

Delcourt, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗
NASA NTRS2016

What Controls the Vertical Distribution of Aerosol? Relationships Between Process Sensitivity in HadGEM3-UKCA and Inter-Model Variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3-UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3-UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN >3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN>100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

dust↗
NASA NTRS2019

Effects of Topography on Tropical Forest Structure Depend on Climate Context

Topography affects abiotic conditions which can influence the structure, function, and dynamics of ecological communities. An increasing number of studies have demonstrated biological consequences of fine-scale topographic heterogeneity but we have a limited understanding of how We merged high-resolution (1 sq. meter) data on topography and canopy height derived from airborne lidar with ground-based data from 15 forest plots in Puerto Rico distributed along a precipitation gradient spanning ca. 800 to 3,500 mm yr(exp -1). Ground-based data included species composition, estimated above-ground biomass (AGB), and two key functional traits (wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) that reflect resource-use strategies and a trade-off between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate how the interaction between topography climate is related to metrics of forest structure (i.e., canopy height and AGB), as well as taxonomic and functional alpha- and beta-diversity. Fine-scale topography (characterized with the topographic wetness index, TWI) significantly affected forest structure and the strength (and in some cases direction) of these effects varied across the precipitation gradient. In all plots, canopy height increased with topographic wetness but the effect was much stronger in dry compared to wet forest plots. In dry forest plots, topographically wetter microsites also had higher levels of AGB but in wet forest plots, topographically drier microsites had higher AGB. Fine-scale topography influenced functional composition but had only weak or non-significant effects on taxonomic and functional alpha- and beta-diversity. For instance, community-weighted wood density followed a similar pattern to AGB across plots. We also found a marginally significant association between variation of wood density and topographic heterogeneity that depended on climate context. Synthesis: The effects of fine-scale topographic heterogeneity on tropical forest structure and composition depend on the climate context. Our study demonstrates how a stronger integration of topographic heterogeneity across precipitation gradients could improve estimates of forest structure and biomass, and may provide insight to the ways that topography might mediate species responses to drought and climate change.

Tropical dry forest↗
NASA NTRS1987

Chaotic nature of the spin-glass phase

The microscopic structure of the ordered phase of spin glasses is investigated theoretically in the framework of the T = 0 fixed-point model (McMillan, 1984; Fisher and Huse, 1986; and Bray and Moore, 1986). The sensitivity of the ground state to changes in the interaction strengths at T = 0 is explored, and it is found that for sufficiently large length scales the ground state is unstable against arbitrarily weak perturbations to the bonds. Explicit results are derived for d = 1, and the implications for d = 2 and d = 3 are considered in detail. It is concluded that there is no hidden order pattern for spin glasses at all T less than T(C), the ordered-phase spin correlations being chaotic functions of spin separation at fixed temperature or of temperature (for a given pair of spins) at scale lengths L greater than (T delta T) exp -1/zeta, where zeta = d(s)/2 - y, d(s) is the interfacial fractal dimension, and -y is the thermal eigenvalue at T = 0.

Bray, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗
NASA NTRS2015

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulating Weak Gravitational Lensing in the Roman Space Telescope Using JWST Observed Galaxies

Some of the most perplexing mysteries of our Universe are connected to the energy and mater we have been unable to physically observe. Making up about 95% of the Universe, dark energy and dark mater do not emit, absorb, nor reflect any portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, and their existence is only inferred through their effects on the visible mater. For example, gravitational lensing is a phenomenon that refers to the magnification and shearing induced on light from distant galaxies caused by the gravitational potential of foreground mater. The amount of lensing is directly related to the total amount of mater present, not just the mater that emits light. Weak gravitational lensing, when these distortions are not as noticeable, allows for the entirety of the “cosmic web”, or large-scale structure, to be probed during dark mater searches instead of just the areas we know are dense with mater i.e. galaxy clusters. In order to properly measure weak lensing effects, accurate galaxy shape measurements that can be calibrated with simulations are required. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is the next upcoming NASA flagship mission. One of its main goals is elucidating the nature of dark mater and dark energy via ultra-wide field UV-NIR imaging surveys. Roman’s view is 100 times that of the Hubble Space Telescope, and we will be primed to measure large-scale structure in the context of weak lensing studies. In this poster, I will present our efforts to simulate JWST observed galaxies through the eyes of Roman. I will detail how we remove the PSF from a JWST NIRCam imaged galaxy, and add Roman filters and detector effects. We report the comparison between JWST and simulated Roman imaging, and place our results in the context of future weak lensing searches with Roman.

Amethyst S. Barnes↗
NASA NTRS1977

Atomic oxygen between 80 and 120 km: Evidence for a rapid spatial variation in vertical transport near the ionosphere

Analysis of OGO-6 OI green line photometer results was carried out for 8 cases when the alignment of the spacecraft was such that local emission rates could be determined below the altitude of maximum emission and down to about 80 km. Results show a variation on a scale of 6 deg to 8 deg in latitude between regions where the emission rate increases rapidly between 90 and 95 km and regions where it increases slowly from 80 km to 95 km. Latitude-altitude maps of iso-emissivity contours and iso-density contours for oxygen concentration are presented. The latter are computed under 3 assumptions concerning excitation mechanisms. Comparisons of the spatial variations of oxygen density with the results of a time dependent theory suggest the regions of strong downward transport alternate on a scale of about 1000 km with regions of weak transport near 90 km. In the first case conversion of O to O3 at night appears to be overwhelmed by downward transport of O.

Donahue, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Neutral winds and electric fields in the dust auroral oval. II - Theory and model

A two-dimensional numerical model of the thermosphere is applied to the auroral zone neutral wind, electric field, and plasma density data set, presented in an earlier paper. The model shows that the action of the Lorentz force can be responsible to a great extent for the large zonal velocities near the 150-km altitude. Model equations are described, an explanation of the use of the geophysical conditions is given, and model integrations are compared to the wind measurements. However, for the two-dimensional model to be effective, the atmosphere must not cross too many meridians of local time during the integration period, so that the background state should remain fairly uniform. It is concluded that the two-dimensional model cannot accurately explain the details of the wind profiles because of the three-dimensional character of the physical situation. Thus it is noted that the observed winds were part of a large-scale three-dimensional flow which is only weakly coupled to short-term variations in magnetospheric conditions.

Mikkelsen, I. S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Coherent backscatter and the radar characteristics of outer planet satellites

It is presently suggested that the diffuse component-dominated high radar reflectivities and large polarization of Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto could be due to the illumination by a collimated source of a weakly absorbing particulate medium in which wavelength-scaled scatterers are separated by distances somewhat larger than the wavelength. A plausible medium could be a regolith composed of voids and/or silicate rocks imbedded in an icy matrix; multiply-scattered parts of the wavefront traversing the same path in opposite directions combine coherently in the backscatter direction to generate increased intensity, and the enhancement is different for the two components of polarized reflected radiation.

Hapke, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS1991

Gamma-ray bursts from colliding strange stars

The rate of collisions between the neutron stars is about 0.0001/yr in the galaxy and about 0.00001/yr within the Hubble distance. The collisions are the final phases of binary orbit decay driven by gravitational radiation and may produce gamma-ray bursts detectable at extragalactic distances. If strange stars exist then their collisions must release about 10 to the 50th ergs in gamma rays over 0.2 s. Such events should be detectable out to 1 Gpc with the current instruments. The distance to the majority of gamma-ray bursts is not known at this time. The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on Gamma Ray Observatory should determine the distance scale by determining the angular distribution of very weak bursts. If the majority of gamma-ray bursts turn out to be extragalactic, and if their distances are about 1 Gpc, then the collisions between strange stars may be the least speculative events that might account for so energetic bursts.

Haensel, P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Gamma-ray bursts from colliding neutron stars

Three distance scales to gamma-ray bursters are discussed: about 300 pc, about 2 - 50 kpc, and about 1 Gpc, corresponding to the Galactic disk, Galactic halo, and extragalactic origin. No compelling evidence is found in favor of any of them. The BATSE experiment on GRO should determine the distance scale by determining the angular distribution of very weak bursts. The rate of collisions between the neutron stars is about 0.0001/yr in our Galaxy, and about 10 exp 5/yr within the Hubble distance. The collisions are the final phases of binary orbit decay driven by gravitational radiation, and may produce gamma-ray bursts detectable at extra-galactic distances. If strange stars exist then their collisions must release about 10 exp 49 erg in gamma-rays over about 10 seconds. Such events should be detectable out to about 1 Gpc with the current instruments.

Paczynski, Bohdan↗
NASA NTRS1993

Kinematics of metal-poor giants in an inner-halo field, with implications for disk formation

A sample of approximately 100 predominantly metal-weak giants, identified in a high-latitude field towards the galactic center using an automated objective-prism survey technique, is presented. Abundances and radial velocities have been measured for these giants, whose distances from the Sun range from 1 to 18 kpc. While the extremely metal-weak stars in the field have halo kinematics, the majority of the stars with intermediate abundance have thick disk kinematics, despite the fact that their average distance from the galactic plane is 3 kpc. The most satisfactory explanation for this effect is that the inner halo is moderately flattened, and the metal-weak stars of the thick disk have a scale height of about 2 kpc. It is suggested that the thick disk may have formed in a dissipational collapse, rather than in a separate event such as the accretion of a small satellite galaxy.

Morrison, Heather L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coagulation of grains in static and collapsing protostellar clouds

We simulate collisional evolution of grains in dense turbulent molecular cloud cores (or Bok globules) in static equilibrium and free-fall collapse, assuming spherical symmetry. Relative velocities are due to thermal motions, differential settling, and turbulence, with the latter dominant for sonic turbulence with an assumed Kolmogorov spectrum. Realistic criteria are used to determine outcomes of collisions (coagulation vs. destruction) as functions of particle size and velocity. Results are presented for a variety of cloud parameters (radial density profile, turbulent velocity) and particle properties (density, impact strength). Results are sensitive to the assumed mechanical properties (density and impact strength) of grain aggregates. Particle growth is enhanced if aggregates have low density or fractal structures. On a timescale of a few Myr, an initial population of 0.1 micrometers grains may produce dense compact particles approximately 1 micrometer in size, or fluffy aggregates approximately 100 micrometers. For impact strengths less than or equal to 10(exp 6) ergs/g, a steady state is reached between coagulation of small grains and collisional disruption of larger aggregates. Formation of macroscopic aggregates requires high mechanical strengths and low aggregate densities. We assume sonic turbulence during collapse, with varied eddy size scales determining the dissipation rate or turbulence strength. The degree of collisional evolution during collapse is sensitive to the assumed small-scale structure (inner sc ale) of the turbulence. Weak turbulence results in few collisions and preserves the precollapse particle size distribution with little change. Strong turbulence tends to produce net destruction, rather than particle growth, during infall, unless inpact strengths are greater than 10(exp 6)ergs/g.

Weidenschilling, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Evolution of Stellar Coronae: Initial Results from a ROSAT PSPC Observation of IC 2391

A 23 ks ROSAT PSPC image of the young star cluster, IC 2391, reveals 76 soft x-ray sources with L(sub x)(0.2-2.0 keV) greater than or equal to 2 x 10(exp 28) ergs/s in the direction of the cluster center. Nineteen of these sources are associated with known cluster members. We find that x-ray emission from the IC 2391 B stars deviates widely from the L(sub x)/L(sub bol) = 10(exp -7) relation based on Einstein observations of O and early B stars. Instead, we observe a wide range in L(sub x) with an order of magnitude spread at any given mass and no apparent dependence on spectral type. A comparison of the spread of L(sub x) as a function of B-V for low-mass stars between IC 2391 and the much older Hyades cluster shows that despite the factor of approx. 10 difference in their ages, these two clusters exhibit very similar dispersions in levels of stellar activity. We conclude that the low-mass stars in IC 2391 have arrived on the ZAMS with a wide range of coronal activity levels, from very strong to very weak, and that existing empirical activity-age scaling laws therefore cannot be valid.

Patten, Brian M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

VLBI Contribution to ITRF2000

The VLBI data set spanning Aug. 1919 to the present is a major constituent of ITRF2000 because of the time span, the geometric strength and the accuracy of the modeling. Formal velocity errors for the best stations are less than 0.3 mm/yr while the probable frame definition error for station velocities is approximately 0.4 mm/yr. The primary systematic errors are the troposphere and tidal loading (solid Earth and ocean). However, the scale of the VLBI TRF is probably only weakly affected because of continued improvements in the tropospheric mapping function and gradient estimation. There are some weaknesses in the spatial distribution of data, particularly in the southern hemisphere, and the quality of the mobile VLBI results is now suboptimal. The deployment of the TIGO system to Chile will improve the geometric coverage. The current state of the art of VLBI analysis will be discussed.

Ma, Chopo↗