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At least 109 records · Page 6

Meso-beta scale numerical simulation studies of terrain-induced jet streak mass/momentum perturbations

Work performed during the report period is summarized. The first numerical experiment which was performed on the North Carolina Supercomputer Center's CRAY-YMP machine during the second half of FY92 involved a 36 hour simulation of the CCOPE case study. This first coarse-mesh simulation employed the GMASS model with a 178 x 108 x 32 matrix of grid points spaced approximately 24 km apart. The initial data was comprised of the global 2.5 x 2.5 degree analyses as well as all available North American rawinsonde data valid at 0000 UTC 11 July 1981. Highly-smoothed LFM-derived terrain data were utilized so as to determine the mesoscale response of the three-dimensional atmosphere to weak terrain forcing prior to including the observed highly complex terrain of the northern Rocky Mountain region. It was felt that the model should be run with a spectrum of terrain geometries, ranging from observed complex terrain to no terrain at all, to determine how crucial the terrain was in forcing the mesoscale phenomena. Both convection and stratiform (stable) precipitation were not allowed in this simulation so that their relative importance could be determined by inclusion in forth-coming simulations. A full suite of planetary boundary layer forcing was allowed in the simulation, including surface sensible and latent heat fluxes employing the Blakadar PBL formulation. The details of this simulation, which in many ways could be considered the control simulation, including the important synoptic-scale, meso-alpha scale, and meso-beta scale circulations is described. These results are compared to the observations diagnosed by Koch and his colleagues as well as hypotheses set forth in the project proposal for terrain-influences upon the jet stream and their role in the generation of mesoscale wave phenomenon. The fundamental goal of the analyses being the discrimination among background geostrophic adjustment, terrain influences, and shearing instability in the initiation and maintainance of mesoscale internal wave phenomena. Based upon these findings, FY93 plans are discussed. A review of linear theory and theoretical modeling of a geostrophic zonal wind anomaly is included.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗

Spectrophotometric and model-atmosphere analyses of the hot DO and DAO white dwarfs from the Palomar-Green survey

Recent optical and spectrophotometric observations of all currently known DAO and DO hot white dwarf candidates from the Palomar-Green Survey are presented. The optical observations were carried out using the Kitt Peak National Observatory Intensified Image Dissector Scanner (IIDS) system, the Multiple Mirror Telescope (MMT), and two photon-counting Reticon systems. Ultraviolet spectrophotometry was obtained using the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) short-wavelength and long-wavelength cameras. The following spectroscopic subgroups were identified in the observations: the cool DO stars with spectra showing H I features together with He II + H blends; the hot DO stars, with spectra exhibiting weak He II (+H) lines; and hydrogen-rich DAO stars with broad H lines and sharp H II lines at 4686 A. A fourth subgroup of stars resembling PG 1159 with He at He II lines at 4686, and a C, N ion blend in the optical spectrum were also found. The spectroscopic data were analyzed in terms of a grid of hot, high-gravity LTE model atmospheres composed of a mixture of hydrogen and helium, and atmospheric parameters are deduced for each class of objects. On the basis of the model atmosphere analysis, the local space density of the DO stars is estimated to be 1.9-3.0 x 10 to the -7th per cubic pc, depending on the scale height.

Wesemael, F.↗

Global CO2 Distributions over Land from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)

January 2009 saw the successful launch of the first space-based mission specifically designed for measuring greenhouse gases, the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We present global land maps (Level 3 data) of column-averaged CO2 concentrations (X(sub CO2)) derived using observations from the GOSAT ACOS retrieval algorithm, for July through December 2009. The applied geostatistical mapping approach makes it possible to generate maps at high spatial and temporal resolutions that include uncertainty measures and that are derived directly from the Level 2 observations, without invoking an atmospheric transport model or estimates of CO2 uptake and emissions. As such, they are particularly well suited for comparison studies. Results show that the Level 3 maps for July to December 2009 on a lO x 1.250 grid, at six-day resolution capture much of the synoptic scale and regional variability of X(sub CO2), in addition to its overall seasonality. The uncertainty estimates, which reflect local data coverage, X(sub CO2) variability, and retrieval errors, indicate that the Southern latitudes are relatively well-constrained, while the Sahara Desert and the high Northern latitudes are weakly-constrained. A probabilistic comparison to the PCTM/GEOS-5/CASA-GFED model reveals that the most statistically significant discrepancies occur in South America in July and August, and central Asia in September to December. While still preliminary, these results illustrate the usefulness of a high spatiotemporal resolution, data-driven Level 3 data product for direct interpretation and comparison of satellite observations of highly dynamic parameters such as atmospheric CO2.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗

A numerical investigation of the finite element method in compressible primitive variable Navier-Stokes flow

The results of a comprehensive numerical investigation of the basic capabilities of the finite element method (FEM) for numerical solution of compressible flow problems governed by the two-dimensional and axis-symmetric Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables are presented. The strong and weak points of the method as a tool for computational fluid dynamics are considered. The relation of the linear element finite element method to finite difference methods (FDM) is explored. The calculation of free shear layer and separated flows over aircraft boattail afterbodies with plume simulators indicate the strongest assets of the method are its capabilities for reliable and accurate calculation employing variable grids which readily approximate complex geometry and capably adapt to the presence of diverse regions of large solution gradients without the necessity of domain transformation.

Cook, C. H.↗

Theoretical studies of the outer envelopes of young stellar objects

With the Monte Carlo code developed by Whitney and Hartmann, a series of models was computed of scattering in disks around young stellar objects. The code calculates scattering by dust, including polarization, in arbitrary geometries. By computing model images, it was found that disk, by themselves, around young stellar objects would be very difficult to detect with present day imaging techniques. In comparing these images to observations of young stellar objects which show diffuse structure, little resemblance was found. A flared disk system will only give high polarization when viewed edge-on, and the position angle is always oriented perpendicular to the disk plane. This suggests that an envelope, perhaps the remnant infalling envelope, must be present to scatter more stellar light than a disk can, and obscure the star at many inclinations. A grid was computed of models of scattering in a disk+envelope system. Evidence is presented that the wind of the pre-main sequence object FU Orionis arises from the surface of the luminous prostellar accretion disk. A disk wind model calculated assuming radiative equilibrium explains the differential behavior of the observed asymmetrical absorption line profiles. The model predicts that strong lines should be asymmetric and blueshifted, while weak lines should be symmetric and doubled peaked due to disk rotation, in agreement with observations.

Hartmann, Lee↗

Mature thunderstorm cloud top structure - Three-dimensional numerical simulation versus satellite observations

Preliminary results of four runs with a three-dimensional model of the effects of vertical wind shear on cloud top height/temperature structure and the internal properties of isolate midlatitude thunderstorms are reported. The model is being developed as an aid to analyses of GEO remote sensing satellite data. The grid is a 27 x 27 x 20 mesh with 2 km horizontal resolution and 0.9 vertical resolution. The total grid is 54 km on a side and 18 km deep. A second-order Crowley scheme for advecting momentum is extended with a third-order correction for spatial truncation error, and the earth-relative horizontal surface wind components are decreased to 50 percent of their values at 0.45 km. A temperature increase with height is included, together with an initial impulse consisting of a nonrotating cylindrical weak buoyant updraft 10 km in radius. The results of the runs are discussed in terms of the time variation of the vertical velocity extrema, the effects of strong and weak shear on a storm, the cloud top height, the Lagrangian dynamics of a thermal couplet, and data from a real storm.

Schlesinger, R. E.↗

Navier-Stokes turbine heat transfer predictions using two-equation turbulence

Navier-Stokes calculations were carried out in order to predict the heat transfer rates on turbine blades. The calculations were performed using TRAF2D which is a two-dimensional, explicit, finite volume mass-averaged Navier-Stokes solver. Turbulence was modeled using q-omega and k-epsilon two-equation models and the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic model. The model equations along with the flow equations were solved explicitly on a non-periodic C grid. Implicit residual smoothing (IRS) or a combination of multigrid technique and IRS was applied to enhance convergence rates. Calculations were performed to predict the Stanton number distributions on the first stage vane and blade row as well as the second stage vane row of the Rocketdyne Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel turbine. The comparison with the experimental results, although generally favorable, serves to highlight the weaknesses of the turbulence models and the possible areas of improving these models for use in turbomachinery heat transfer calculations.

Ameri, Ali A.↗

Simulation of summertime ozone over North America

The concentrations of O3 and its precursors over North America are simulated for three summer months with a 3D, continental-scale photochemical model using meteorological input from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. The model has 4 x 5 deg grid resolution and represents nonlinear chemistry in urban and industrial plumes with a subgrid nested scheme. Simulated median afternoon O3 concentrations at rural U.S. sites are within 5 ppb of observations in most cases, except in the south central U.S., where concentrations are overpredicted by 15-20 ppb. The model captures successfully the development of regional high-O3 episodes over the northeastern United States on the back side of weak, warm, stagnant anticyclones. Simulated concentrations of CO and nonmethane hydrocarbons are generally in good agreement with observations, concentrations of NO(x) are underpredicted by 10-30 percent, and concentrations of PANs are overpredicted by a factor of 2 to 3. The overprediction of PANs is attributed to flaws in the photochemical mechanism, including excessive production from oxidation of isoprene, and may also reflect an underestimate of PANs deposition. Subgrid nonlinear chemistry as captured by the nested plumes scheme decreases the net O3 production computed in the U.S. boundary layer by 8 percent on average.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗

Weak double layers

The characteristics of weak double layers with potential steps approximately equal to five are investigated in a triple plasma device and compared with a kinetic model. The double layers considered here differ from those previously investigated in two significant ways: (1) the double layers are much weaker; and (2) trapped ions play a much less important role. In this study, two plasmas at different potentials but with similar characteristics are separated from a target chamber by grids so that ions enter only at the high potential side and electron beams enter at the low potential side. What is more, thermal electrons enter at the high potential side and are trapped by the double layer. The model calculations illustrate the role of the trapped ions in determining the position of the double layer, and they demonstrate the dependence of the length of the double layer on the entering ion and electron fluxes.

Hershkowitz, N.↗

Aeroacoustic Simulations of Tandem Cylinders with Subcritical Spacing

Tandem cylinders are being studied because they model a variety of component level interactions of landing gear. The present effort is directed at the case of two identical cylinders with their centroids separated in the streamwise direction by 1.435 diameters. Experiments in the Basic Aerodynamic Research Tunnel and Quiet Flow Facility at NASA Langley Research Center have provided an extensive experimental database of the nearfield flow and radiated noise. The measurements were conducted at a Mach number of 0.1285 and Reynolds number of 1.66x10(exp 5) based on the cylinder diameter. A trip was used on the upstream cylinder to insure a fully turbulent flow separation and, hence, to simulate a major aspect of high Reynolds number flow. The parallel computational effort uses the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes solver CFL3D with a hybrid, zonal turbulence model that turns off the turbulence production term everywhere except in a narrow ring surrounding solid surfaces. The experiments exhibited an asymmetry in the surface pressure that was persistent despite attempts to eliminate it through small changes in the configuration. To model the asymmetry, the simulations were run with the cylinder configuration at a nonzero but small angle of attack. The computed results and experiments are in general agreement that vortex shedding for the spacing studied herein is weak relative to that observed at supercritical spacings. Although the shedding was subdued in the simulations, it was still more prominent than in the experiments. Overall, the simulation comparisons with measured near-field data and the radiated acoustics are reasonable, especially if one is concerned with capturing the trends relative to larger cylinder spacings. However, the flow details of the 1.435 diameter spacing have not been captured in full even though very fine grid computations have been performed. Some of the discrepancy may be associated with the simulation s inexact representation of the experimental configuration, but numerical and flow modeling errors are also likely contributors to the observed differences.

Lockard, David P.↗

Predictions of Line Chilldown Boiling Regime Transitions by a Coupled CFD-Sub-Grid Boiling Model Validated against 1G LN2 Experiments

Propellant storage and transfer during future long-duration missions will involve fuel depot operations in which a donor depot tank is used to fill a receiver spacecraft tank with a cryogenic propellant. Prior to the on-Orbit filling operation both the receiver tank and the transfer line must be cooled. The line chilldown process involves transition between boiling regimes in microgravity that will be quite different from their 1g ground-based counterparts. Since the cryogenic propellant itself will be used to perform the chilldown process, the time constants to cool the wall and the amount of fuel that will be used become important design considerations. In this light, the focus of the present work is to capture the flow boiling characteristics of a cryogenic fluid, namely, liquid nitrogen, during the chill-down of a transfer line using CFD modelling and simulations. The cryogenic chill-down process involves different flow boiling regimes: film boiling, transition boiling and nucleate boiling. The prediction of transition between these regimes in a CFD framework is new and challenging. The present work addresses this challenge by employing a volume-of-fluid (VOF) based methodology with Lee phase change model to predict the film boiling regime of the chill-down process in ANSYS Fluent®. The transition and nucleate boiling regimes are predicted by incorporating a sub-grid model that accounts for bubble nucleation, growth, shedding frequency, and departure diameter. The sub-grid model is implemented into Fluent via a user-defined function for wall-fluid heat flux calculations. The sub-grid model is similar in formulation to the well-known Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) boiling model. The CFD model is validated against published experimental data for liquid nitrogen chill-down of a heated stainless-steel pipe in 1g. Predicted results shows good agreement of wall temperature, rewetting temperature, and transition between film and nucleate boiling with the experimental measurements for several different LN2 flowrates in the vertical orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of this modeling approach are presented and discussed.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗

Comparisons of thermochemical nonequilibrium viscous flowfield predictions for AFE vehicle

Numerical solutions for the Aeroassist Flight Experiment vehicle were obtained from three methods at a trajectory point corresponding to the maximum aerodynamic heating. The flow regime and vehicle's speed require a viscous model of laminar flow and finite-rate chemical and thermal modeling. The computational domain covers both forebody and base such that the shock layer and near wake flowfield are included. Because of differences in computational grids, methods of solution, and models of rate equations, the results are generally in poor agreement. Temperature and species concentrations are strongly affected by the physical model equations and associated parameters. The chemistry model based on 11 species is found to yield lower translational temperature profile near stagnation than those from a seven-species model. The vibrational temperature varies according to the modeling details. All solutions indicate that strong neutral and/or molecular dissociation and weak ionization take place at the forebody and vibrational freezing is present in the afterbody expansion region where the vibrational temperature is higher than the translational temperature. Some forms of shear layer emanating from the aerobrake skirt coalesce in the region of reversed flow behind the vehicle.

Tam, Luen T.↗

Efficient Viscous Design of Realistic Aircraft Configurations

This paper addresses the use of the Constrained Direct Iterative Surface Curvature (CDISC) design method in the aircraft design process. A discussion of some of the requirements for practical use of CFD in the design process is followed by a description of different CFD design methods, along with their relative strengths and weaknesses. A detailed description of the CDISC design method highlights some of the aspects of the method that provide computational efficiency and portability, as well as the flow and geometry constraint capabilities. In addition, an efficient approach to multipoint design, the Weighted Averaging of Geometries (WAG) method, is described and illustrated using a couple of simple examples. The CDISC and WAG methods are then applied to a complex generic business jet geometry using an unstructured grid flow solver to demonstrate the multipoint and multicomponent design capabilities of these methods. Introduction

Campbell, Richard L.↗

Three-Dimensional Multiscale MHD Model of Cometary Plasma Environments

First results of a three-dimensional multiscale MHD model of the interaction of an expanding cometary atmosphere with the magnetized solar wind are presented. The model starts with a supersonic and super-Alfvenic solar wind far upstream of the comet (25 Gm upstream of the nucleus) with arbitrary interplanetary magnetic field orientation. The solar wind is continuously mass loaded with cometary ions originating from a 10-km size nucleus. The effects of photoionization, electron impact ionization, recombination, and ion-neutral frictional drag are taken into account in the model. The governing equations are solved on an adaptively refined unstructured Cartesian grid using our new multiscale upwind scalar conservation laws-type numerical technique (MUSCL). We have named this the multiscale adaptive upwind scheme for MHD (MAUS-MHD). The combination of the adaptive refinement with the MUSCL-scheme allows the entire cometary atmosphere to be modeled, while still resolving both the shock and the diamagnetic cavity of the comet. The main findings are the following: (1) Mass loading decelerates the solar wind flow upstream of the weak cometary shock wave (M approximately equals 2, M(sub A) approximately equals 2), which forms at a subsolar standoff distance of about 0.35 Gm. (2) A cometary plasma cavity is formed at around 3 x 10(exp 3) km from the nucleus. Inside this cavity the plasma expands outward due to the frictional interaction between ions and neutrals. On the nightside this plasma cavity considerably narrows and a relatively fast and dense cometary plasma beam is ejected into the tail. (3) Inside the plasma cavity a teardrop-shaped inner shock is formed, which is terminated by a Mach disk on the nightside. Only the region inside the inner shock is the 'true' diamagnetic cavity. (4) The model predicts four distinct current systems in the inner coma: the density peak current, the cavity boundary current, the inner shock current, and finally the cross-tail current. (5) The calculated plasma parameters (magnetic field, plasma density, speed, and temperature) are in very good agreement with published Giotto observations.

Gombosi, Tamas I.↗

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Global Ocean↗

A Fresh Look at Coupled-Oscillator Spatial Power Combining

Quasi-optical oscillators were proposed a little more than ten years ago as a means of developing the power levels needed for applications at millimeter frequencies using large numbers of individual semiconductor devices each of which produces only a modest amount of power [J.W. Mink, IEEE Trans. MTT., vol. 34, p. 273, 19861. An operating system was demonstrated soon after [Z.B. Popovic et. al, Int. J. Infrared and Millimeter Waves, v. 9, p. 647, 1988] in the form of a so-called grid oscillator. This device constituted a rectangular array of oscillating devices that are mutually coupled so that they oscillator coherently. The interconnecting lines in one direction serve as radiators so that the oscillators radiate directly, and the radiated fields add. Subsequently, coupled oscillators using resonant transmission line lengths was demonstrated by Mortazawi and Itoh [IEEE Trans. MTT., vol. 38, p. 86,1990). In recent work, coupled-oscillator power combiners have received less attention, with amplifier/combiners receiving more attention. Specific weaknesses of spatial-combining oscillators have motivated this transition. Namely, the oscillators employ low-Q resonators (resulting in low signal quality) and no clear means of modulation has been identified until recently. In this presentation, we review coupled-oscillator combiners in broad terms, indicating the features that make particular systems viable. We indicate how these features can be reconciled to functional requirements for system applications. Comparisons are drawn between two approaches to obtain mutual coupling: One employs low-Q oscillator circuits at each site, with concomitantly high propensity for the oscillators to couple. The other approach employs moderate-Q oscillators at each site with the concomitant requirement to tune the oscillators so that they share a range of frequencies over which they can couple and lock. In either case, precise frequency control and modulation can be achieved through locking to an external frequency source that ensures high quality signals. A recent development in coupled-oscillator arrays provides a means for beam-steering the radiation field of coupled oscillators through de-tuning of the edge elements in the array. This detuning introduces a progressive phase shift across the oscillator array. This 0 suggests architectures that can replace the functionality of a phased array without the cost 0 incurred by phase shifters. A comprehensive theory of the phase interactions among devices in such arrays is under development [e.g., Pogorzelski, York, and Maccarini, 1998 AP-S International Symposium, Atlanta, GA. June, 19981.

Pearson, L.W.↗

Assessment of the global monthly mean surface insolation estimated from satellite measurements using global energy balance archive data

Global sets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W/sq m. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W/sq m with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives from the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W/sq m. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W/sq m are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

Li, Zhanqing↗