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At least 109 records · Page 6

SPRUCE Plot-Level Water Table Data Assessments for Absolute Elevations and Height with Respect to Mean Hollows Beginning in 2015

This data set provides a record of the half-hourly automated water table depth data collected for 12 SPRUCE plots (4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20, and 21) beginning during deep peat heating (DPH) in 2015 and continuing throughout the whole ecosystem warming (WEW) manipulations for the SPRUCE Project (Hanson et al. 2017). The data currently cover 2015-05-12 through 2024-12-31 and will be updated periodically throughout the duration of the SPRUCE project. Also provided are daily plot normalized data for water table depths with respect to mean hollow locations within each plot. The hollow referenced data provide the basis for the intercomparison of peat saturation or aeration across treatment plots. A limited data set for manual water table observations made periodically from 2015-2022 are also provided as a reference to the plot center automated observations. In August 2015, WEW was initiated at 5 warming levels (+0, +2. +4.5, +6.75 and +9 °C) with 2 plots per warming level. DPH measurements were underway before the initiation of WEW heating treatments and both are expected to operate through 2025. Elevated CO2 treatments were added in June 2016 (Enclosures 4, 10, 11, 16 and 19). All measurements were made at the 8.1-ha S1 bog forest site in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). This dataset contains three data files in comma separated (*.csv) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elevator deflections on the icing process

The effect of elevator deflection of the horizontal stabilizer for certain icing parameters is investigated. Elevator deflection can severely change the lower and upper leading-edge impingement limits, and ice can accrete on the elevator itself. Also, elevator deflection had practically no effect on the maximum local collection efficiency. It is shown that for severe icing conditions (large water droplets), elevator deflections that increase the projected height of the airfoil can significantly increase the total collection efficiency of the airfoil.

Britton, Randall K.↗

Divergent species-specific impacts of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO 2 on vegetation water relations in an ombrotrophic peatland

Boreal peatland forests have relatively low species diversity and thus impacts of climate change on one or more dominant species could shift ecosystem function. Despite abundant soil water availability, shallowly rooted vascular plants within peatlands may not be able to meet foliar demand for water under drought or heat events that increase vapor pressure deficits while reducing near surface water availability, although concurrent increases in atmospheric CO 2 could buffer resultant hydraulic stress. We assessed plant water relations of co-occurring shrub (primarily Rhododendron groenlandicum and Chamaedaphne calyculata) and tree (Picea mariana and Larix laricina) species prior to, and in response to whole ecosystem warming (0 to +9°C) and elevated CO 2 using 12.8-m diameter open-top enclosures installed within an ombrotrophic bog. Water relations (water potential [Ψ], turgor loss point, foliar and root hydraulic conductivity) were assessed prior to treatment initiation, then Ψ and peak sap flow (trees only) assessed after 1 or 2 years of treatments. Under the higher temperature treatments, L. laricina Ψ exceeded its turgor loss point, increased its peak sap flow, and was not able to recover Ψ overnight. In contrast, P. mariana operated below its turgor loss point and maintained constant Ψ and sap flow across warming treatments. Similarly, C. calyculata Ψ stress increased with temperature while R. groenlandicum Ψ remained at pretreatment levels. The more anisohydric behavior of L. laricina and C. calyculata may provide greater net C uptake with warming, while the more conservative P. mariana and R. groenlandicum maintained greater hydraulic safety. These latter species also responded to elevated CO 2 by reduced Ψ stress, which may also help limit hydraulic failure during periods of extreme drought or heat in the future. Along with Sphagnum moss, the species-specific responses of peatland vascular communities to drier or hotter conditions will shape boreal peatland composition and function in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Water on the Density and Elevation of Tesserae on Venus

While the current conditions on Venus are inhospitable, with surface temperatures of ~ 470 °C, pressures of 92 bars, and a CO 2 dominated atmosphere, early Venus may have had a more temperate climate with water on the surface. Water is not only crucial to understanding the habitability potential of Venus, but also has major implications for the tectonic regime and thermal evolution of a planet. Tesserae are believed to be the oldest exposed features on the surface of Venus and may have formed during a period with higher water content. Some of this water might have been preserved as hydrous minerals in the Venusian subsurface. The presence of these minerals has an effect on the density profiles and isostatic behaviour of the tesserae and therefore requires a more detailed investigation. Here we will present results of phase equilibria and isostasy modelling on a range of Tesserae-analogue rock compositions with varying water content and along a range of potential thermal gradients. We compare our results to anhydrous models performed previously under similar thermal regime to constrain the conditions (rock composition, thermal gradient, and water content) needed for tesserae stability.

A R Baker↗

Sources of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide following wetting of dry soil

A study is presented which is aimed at distinguishing among autotrophic nitrification, denitrification, and abiological processes as sources of NO and N2O production following wetting of dry soil. To distinguish among these processes, combinations of treatments in laboratory incubations of soil were used which included varying soil water content, autoclaving, C2H2 inhibition, and NO2(-) addition. Biological sources of NO and N2O commenced within minutes of wetting dry soil. Acetylene inhibition revealed that emissions of NO were dependent on nitrification, although a combination of NO2(-) production by nitrifiers and abiological reduction of NO2(-) to NO is also possible. NO emissions exceeded N2O emissions, and nitrification was the dominant source of both gases when soil water was below field capacity. It is concluded that NO emissions appear to be more important when good soil aeration favors nitrification, whereas N2O emissions appear more important when elevated soil water favors denitrification.

Davidson, Eric A.↗

Contributions to the Surface Downwelling Longwave Irradiance during Arctic Winter at Utqiaġvik (Barrow), Alaska

Intrusions of warm, moist air into the Arctic during winter have emerged as important contributors to Arctic surface warming. Previous studies indicate that temperature, moisture, and hydrometeor enhancements during intrusions all make contributions to surface warming via emission of radiation down to the surface. Here, datasets from instrumentation at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) for the six months from November through April for the six winter seasons of 2013/14–2018/19 were used to quantify the atmospheric state. These datasets subsequently served as inputs to compute surface downwelling longwave irradiances via radiative transfer computations at 1-min intervals with different combinations of constituents over the six winter seasons. The computed six winter average irradiance with all constituents included was 205.0 W m −2 , close to the average measured irradiance of 206.7 W m −2 , a difference of −0.8%. During this period, water vapor was the most important contributor to the irradiance. The computed average irradiance with dry gas was 71.9 W m −2 . Separately adding water vapor, liquid, or ice to the dry atmosphere led to average increases of 2.4, 1.8, and 1.6 times the dry atmosphere irradiance, respectively. During the analysis period, 15 episodes of warm, moist air intrusions were identified. During the intrusions, individual contributions from elevated temperature, water vapor, liquid water, and ice water were found to be comparable to each other. These findings indicate that all properties of the atmospheric state must be known in order to quantify the radiation coming down to the Arctic surface during winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2↗

Simulation of a High-Confinement Tidal Energy Array (Abstract)

When the projected area of a current turbine array occupies a substantial fraction of a tidal or river channel cross-sectional area, the confinement associated with the channel boundaries substantially increases turbine efficiency. This effect can be exploited to substantially reduce the levelized cost of energy for current turbine arrays. However, the presence of such an array will affect inflow velocity, water depth, and circulation in the surrounding area. This has implications for array performance and environmental impacts. This project combines existing numerical modeling capability from PNNL with an understanding of confined array performance from UW. The work will 1) Simulate tidal currents and water surface elevation in a regional circulation model that includes the Knik Arm site at appropriate resolution; 2) Incorporate a varying thrust coefficient into this model that reflects the outcomes of tidal hydrodynamic simulations of confined turbine arrays; 3) Use the model to determine the effects of array operation on water levels and inflow conditions as a function of different blockage ratios and control strategies; and 4) Identify the “far field” environmental implications of operating an array of this type. UW will use the outputs from this model to evaluate the implications of “feedback effects” and variable inflow conditions on levelized cost of energy estimates for a confinement exploiting array of cross-flow turbines.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Field and airborne spectral characterization of suspected damage in red spruce (picea rubens) from Vermont

The utilization of remote sensing to monitor forest damage due to acid deposition is investigated. Spectral and water measurements and aircraft radiance data of red spruce and balsam fir, collected in Camels Hump Mountain and Ripton, Vermont between August 13-20, 1984, are analyzed to evaluate the damage levels of the trees. Variations in reflectance features and canopy moisture content are studied. It is observed that damage correlates with elevation (greater damage at higher elevations); xylem water column tension is greater at higher damage sites; and a 'blue shift' is indicated in the spectral data at high damage sites.

Rock, B. N.↗

Mechanical Testing of PMCs under Simulated Rapid Heat-Up Propulsion Environments: In-Plane Compressive Behavior - II

Carbon fiber thermoset polymer matrix composites (PMC) with high temperature polyimide based in-situ polymerized monomer reactant (PMR) resin has been used for some time in applications which can see temperatures up to 550 F. Currently, graphite fiber PMR based composites are used in several aircraft engine components including the outer bypass duct for the GE F-404, exit flaps for the P&W F-100-229, and the core cowl for the GE/Snecma CF6-80A3. Newer formulations, including PMR-II-50 are being investigated as potential weight reduction replacements of various metallic components in next generation high performance propulsion rocket engines that can see temperatures which exceed 550 F. Extensive FEM thermal modeling indicates that these components are exposed to rapid heat-up rates (up to -200 F/sec) and to a maximum temperature of around 600 F. Even though the predicted maximum part temperatures were within the capability of PW-II-50, the rapid heat-up causes significant through-thickness thermal gradients in the composite part and even more unstable states when combined with moisture. Designing composite parts for such extreme service environments will require accurate measurement of intrinsic and transient mechanical properties and the hygrothermal performance of these materials under more realistic use conditions. The mechanical properties of polymers degrade when exposed to elevated temperatures even in the absence of gaseous oxygen. Accurate mechanical characterization of the material is necessary in order to reduce system weight while providing sufficient factors of safety. Historically, the testing of PMCs at elevated temperatures has been plagued by the antagonism between two factors. First, moisture has been shown to profoundly affect the mechanical response of these materials at temperatures above their glass transition temperature while concurrently lowering the material's Tg. Moisture phenomena is due to one or a combination of three effects, i.e., plastization of polymeric material by water, the internal pressure generated by the volatilization of water at elevated temperatures, and hydrolytic chemical decomposition. However, moisture is lost from the material at increasing rates as temperature increases. Second, because PMCs are good thermal insulators, when they are externally heated at even mild rates large thermal gradients can develop within the material. At temperatures where a material property changes rapidly with temperature the presence of a large thermal gradient is unacceptable for intrinsic property characterization purposes. Therefore, long hold times are required to establish isothermal conditions. However, in the service environments high-heating-rates, high temperatures, high-loading rates are simultaneous present along with residual moisture. In order to capture the effects of moisture on the material, holding at- temperature until isothermal conditions are reached is unacceptable particularly in materials with small physical dimensions. Thus, the effects due to moisture on the composite's mechanical characteristics, ie., their so-called analog response, may be instructive. One approach employed in this program was rapid heat-up (approx. 200 F/sec.) and loading of both dry and wet in-plane compressive specimens to examine the effects of moisture on this resin dominated mechanical property of the material.

Stokes, Eric H.↗

Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model files to explore bedrock circulation depth and porosity in Copper Creek, Colorado

This data package contains integrated hydrological model input and output files for Copper Creek, Colorado (24 km2), a tributary of the East River located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The model code is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model. The model contains a 100-m grid resolution and a daily timestep. The land surface model is dynamically linked to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model that allows for streamflow gaining and losing conditions. The groundwater model contains 12 model layers and extends 400 m below land surface. The original Copper Creek model was modified to contain geologic layers representing saprolite, shallow bedrock, and deep bedrock. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. For the shallow case, median flow depths occur in the shallow saprolite at depths <8 m, while the deep case promotes a median groundwater flow depth of 100 m. With this modeling framework we compare streamflow response to a plausible worst-case drought lasting up to five years. Streamflow metrics of analysis include average streamflow, fraction of stream network that is dry, no-flow duration, average groundwater flow to streams and time to recovery following the drought. Results and implications are presented in a paper submitted to Geophysical Research Letters titled, "The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought" by Rosemary WH. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning and Kenneth H Williams. A Readme.txt file provides instructions on how to download all model files and execute each model scenario. In addition to the GSFLOW output/prms/copper_drought.csv file containing daily basin water stores and fluxes (refer to GSFLOW manual) and the output/prms/copper_drought_statvar.dat file with output defined in the gsflow3.control file (refer to GSFLOW Manual), output files also include spatially distributed daily values of total evapotranspiration, canopy evaporation, precipitation, snowfall, infiltration, snow water equivalent, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, sublimation, soil moisture, contributing interflow, water table elevations, changes in groundwater storage, groundwater evapotranspiration, interbasin groundwater flow (limited to the alluvium below the stream outlet), and surface-groundwater exchanges within the river system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of the Sensitivity of Surface Downward Longwave Radiation to Changes in Water Vapor at Two High Elevation Sites

Among the potential reasons for enhanced warming rates in many high elevation regions is the nonlinear relationship between surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) and specific humidity (q). In this study we use ground-based observations at two neighboring high elevation sites in Southwestern Colorado that have different local topography and are 1.3 kilometers apart horizontally and 348 meters vertically. We examine the spatial consistency of the sensitivities (partial derivatives) of DLR with respect to changes in q, and the sensitivities are obtained from the Jacobian matrix of a neural network analysis. Although the relationship between DLR and q is the same at both sites, the sensitivities are higher when q is smaller, which occurs more frequently at the higher elevation site. There is a distinct hourly distribution in the sensitivities at both sites especially for high sensitivity cases, although the range is greater at the lower elevation site. The hourly distribution of the sensitivities relates to that of q. Under clear skies during daytime, q is similar between the two sites, however under cloudy skies or at night, it is not. This means that the DLR-q sensitivities are similar at the two sites during daytime but not at night, and care must be exercised when using data from one site to infer the impact of water vapor feedbacks at another site, particularly at night. Our analysis suggests that care should be exercised when using the lapse rate adjustment to infill high frequency data in a complex topographical region, particularly when one of the stations is subject to cold air pooling as found here.

elevation↗

Automating the detection of hydrological barriers and fragmentation in wetlands using deep learning and InSAR

The loss of hydrological connectivity and fragmentation of natural wetlands is a widespread driver of wetland degradation. Understanding where and how natural connectivity is impaired is essential for managing, protecting and remediating these ecosystems. Wetland Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (Wetland InSAR) can provide information on surface flow orientation in wetlands at a high spatial resolution, which can be used for barrier detection. However, the broad application of this approach is constrained by the labour-intensive manual delineation of barriers based on mapped water levels. This study presents the first deep learning-based methodology for the automated detection of hydrological barriers. We trained a deep convolutional network to segment edge features of hydrological barriers in 25 image pairs captured by ALOS PALSAR-1 L-Band InSAR between 2006 and 2011. The training dataset consists of manually labelled and delineated barriers showing abrupt changes in water surface elevation and wrapped interferograms with high coherence. We tested this method across three wetland sites: the Everglades and southern Louisiana wetlands (United States) and the Cienaga de Zapata (Cuba). Across these sites, the convolutional network detected hydrological barriers with up to 84% accuracy. The model performed particularly well for linear hydrological barriers such as roads, dikes, and channels. Notably, some barriers impede flow only seasonally, appearing during low water levels and disappearing when water levels rise. Our automated approach to detecting and assessing wetland hydrologic connectivity can be applied more broadly to support the effective management of fragmented wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative near-field water–air spray measurements at elevated pressures by neutron radiography imaging

Extensive experimental research on high-pressure spray has been conducted for decades to deepen our understanding and optimize its use in transportation, aviation, and propulsion applications; however, the near-field and in-nozzle flow characteristics are not fully understood. Dense near-field spray is among the most challenging diagnostic tasks since light is severely scattered and diffused by the liquid droplets and columns. In this work, the near-field spray and in-nozzle flow characteristics of an aeration nozzle at elevated pressures were characterized by neutron radiography imaging at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor. Neutron imaging benefits via strong penetration depths for some metals (i.e., aluminum, lead, and steel) and is sufficiently sensitive to detection of light elements, especially for hydrogen-based molecules, due to the large incoherent scattering cross section of neutrons. Both two-dimensional snapshots of the near-field spray and a three-dimensional tomographic scan of the nozzle geometry and in-nozzle water were obtained. This work provides new quantitative characterization of practical metal nozzle geometry for accurate boundary conditions, internal flow patterns inside the nozzle, and high-pressure spray flows. In conclusion, the findings may be used to improve performance and operating conditions of transportation vehicles and propulsion systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Silicon Dioxide Deposited Using Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Chemical Vapor Deposition for Improved Adhesion and Water Intrusion Resistance for Lightweight Manufacturing

This work aims to demonstrate the barrier coating, and adhesion promoting properties of silica-based coatings deposited using an atmospheric pressure plasma torch (APPT). This is achieved by applying an industrial grade adhesive to silica thin films deposited, on the surfaces to be joined, using atmospheric pressure plasma chemical vapor deposition (APP-CVD), to make single joint lap shear samples of different metal combinations commonly found in lightweight manufacturing such as aluminum and magnesium as well as steel. To deposit these thin films, two separate silicon based organic precursors, hexamethyldisiloxane (HMDSO), and tetraehylorthosilicate (TEOS), are used. Here, samples are bonded using DuPont Betamate 1486 adhesive, and the lap shear results for these films are compared to the lap shear results of a chemically cleaned control using the same adhesive. The APPT uses a microwave power supply and gas mixtures of N 2 and Ar. The adhesion of the films are tested using lap shear, and elevated temperature water soaks are conducted on the joints as well to simulate environmental exposure. Lap shear results from samples with silica thin films max shear stress are 25%-115% increase compared to control samples depending on material. After exposure to water soak the max shear strength of the joints decreased by less than 15%, which demonstrates the films capabilities as a water barrier. Film morphology is examined using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and the film’s composition and approximate thickness are obtained using Rutherford Backscattering Spectroscopy (RBS).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Harmonized Sentinel-1 SAR Global River Geometry and Inundation Database

Satellite-based observations on river geometries are sporadic in time, space, or both. Most satellite-based surface water maps, river widths, water surface elevations (WSE), slopes, and bathymetry are asynchronized in time and space. The current configuration of satellites such as Sentinel-6 measured the WSE but is missing the river width, slopes, and depths. To advance hydrological sciences research, there is a need to produce a harmonized time series of river geometry data of non-SWOT satellites in partnership with the upcoming SWOT mission. The SWOT satellite will measure river width, height, and slope but missing river depth measurements in space and time. Further, none of these current satellites measure the WSE, river width, and slopes synchronously. In this work, we use the Sentinel-1 SAR satellite data archive from 2015 to the present to create a global river width and surface water database at the reach scale. A modified version of the Sentinel SAR surface water classification algorithm from ASF is used to quantify the surface water extent on the stream approximately every six days (at the equator) at 10m spatial resolution globally. This 10m water mask is fed into a workflow to quantify the river widths, surface water inundations, slopes, and synthetic bathymetry in SWORD (SWOT River Database) stream networks. A Satellite HAND is used to address the cloud obscured surface water observations using a trained machine learning algorithm. We use WSE derived from the Global Water Monitor from NASA GSFC, Hydroweb from LEGOS, and ICESat-2 to harmonize the WSE observation. And Landsat-8/9 and Sentinel-2 water observations to fill the gaps in the Sentinel-1 SAR database. We use Congo River Basin as a test case where we have more than 500 radar altimetry-based WSE, continuous series of Sentinel-1, ICESat-2, Landsat-8/9, and Sentinel-2 observations. A Congo River hydrologic model is used to generate the streamflow discharge. The satellite observed river reaches are assimilated with the stream flows computed by the routing models. And the downstream reaches in the river network without satellite observations get optimized for discharge/river geometry at each observation cycle. Our final product is a harmonized river geometry dataset (reach's water extent, WSE, slope, synthetic bathymetry) for Congo Basin's SWORD reaches.

Chandana Gangodagamage↗

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗