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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructure and mechanical properties of friction stir weld performed on neutron-irradiated 304L steel with helium

As nuclear power plants (NPPs) approach or exceed 40–60 years of service, it may become necessary to repair damaged neutron-irradiated components to prolong longevity. However, fusion welding repair of irradiated steels and metallic materials is challenging because of helium-induced cracking. This study used friction stir welding (FSW) to address helium-related issues, such as helium bubble formation and grain boundary cracking. The microstructure, helium-induced degradation, and mechanical properties of a friction stir weld produced on neutron-irradiated 304L stainless steel with approximately 5.2 appm of helium were characterized. The analysis focused on variations in grain size, texture, and the morphology of helium-induced damage in the friction stir weld. Mechanical properties were characterized on the irradiated base metal (BM) and metallurgical zones of the friction stir weld: the stir zone (SZ), the thermo-mechanically affected zone (TMAZ), and the heat affected zone (HAZ). Only minor scattered porosity in the SZ and TMAZ and a few short microcracks (below 20 μm in length) in the TMAZ were observed, indicating limited helium-induced degradation. Tensile tests revealed good mechanical properties and fractography analysis demonstrated predominantly ductile fracture. In conclusion, the results highlight the immediate and substantial benefits of the FSW approach for repairing or joining helium-containing irradiated materials in NPPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Willow Biomass Crops Are a Carbon Negative or Low-Carbon Feedstock Depending on Prior Land Use and Transportation Distances to End Users

Few life cycle assessments (LCAs) on willow biomass production have investigated the effects of key geographically specific parameters. This study uses a spatial LCA model for willow biomass production to determine spatially explicit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy return on investment (EROI), including land use conversion from pasture and cropland or grassland. There were negative GHG emissions on 92% of the land identified as suitable for willow biomass production, indicating this system’s potential for climate change mitigation. For willow planted on cropland or pasture, life cycle GHG emissions ranged from −53.2 to −176.9 kg CO2eq Mg-1. When willow was grown on grassland the projected decrease in soil organic carbon resulted in a slightly positive GHG balance. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) associated with land use change, transportation distance, and willow yield had the greatest impacts on GHG emissions. Results from the uncertainty analysis exhibited large variations in GHG emissions between counties arising from differences in these parameters. The average EROI across the entire region was 19.2. Willow biomass can be a carbon negative or low-carbon energy source with a high EROI in regions with similar infrastructure, transportation distances, and growing conditions such as soil characteristics, land cover types, and climate.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Daily and Seasonal Variations of Shallow Seismic Velocities in Southern California From Joint Analysis of H/V Ratios and Autocorrelations of Seismic Waveforms

Establishing a baseline of ongoing secular velocity variations at the subsurface can improve the accuracy of detecting and interpreting short-term velocity changes, and advance the understanding of observed seismic motions and the behavior of subsurface materials. Toward these goals, we develop and apply a deconvolved autocorrelation (DA) method to estimate regional daily and seasonal changes of seismic velocities in southern California. The DA method combines advantages of traditional autocorrelation and Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio, and is used to analyze over 10 years of data recorded by 50 stations. The results indicate widespread daily and seasonal changes of up to 10% and 4%, respectively, in the top tens of meters of the crust. The thickness of the surface layer, distance from the coast, and topographic variations are important factors controlling the amplitudes of the resolved velocity variations. The results suggest that changes of soil moisture and thermoelastic strain are likely dominant factors affecting the daily and seasonal variations, respectively. The developed DA method can improve the accuracy and robustness of estimated changes of subsurface materials at other locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous dissection of grain carotenoid levels and kernel color in biparental maize populations with yellow-to-orange grain

Maize enriched in provitamin A carotenoids could be key in combatting vitamin A deficiency in human populations relying on maize as a food staple. Consumer studies indicate that orange maize may be regarded as novel and preferred. This study identifies genes of relevance for grain carotenoid concentrations and kernel color, through simultaneous dissection of these traits in 10 families of the US maize nested association mapping panel that have yellow to orange grain. Quantitative trait loci were identified via joint-linkage analysis, with phenotypic variation explained for individual kernel color quantitative trait loci ranging from 2.4% to 17.5%. These quantitative trait loci were cross-analyzed with significant marker-trait associations in a genome-wide association study that utilized ~27 million variants. Nine genes were identified: four encoding activities upstream of the core carotenoid pathway, one at the pathway branchpoint, three within the α- or β-pathway branches, and one encoding a carotenoid cleavage dioxygenase. Of these, three exhibited significant pleiotropy between kernel color and one or more carotenoid traits. Kernel color exhibited moderate positive correlations with β-branch and total carotenoids and negligible correlations with α-branch carotenoids. These findings can be leveraged to simultaneously achieve desirable kernel color phenotypes and increase concentrations of provitamin A and other priority carotenoids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cultivating clarity: understanding the impact of land cost assumptions on biofuel viability

The transition to sustainable energy has increased interest in biofuel production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on imported oil, and ensure energy resilience. Here, this study examines the often-overlooked impact of land cost assumptions on the economic viability of biofuel production. Using a discounted cash flow techno-economic framework, we evaluated three land cost scenarios—no land costs, land rental costs, and land purchase costs—across six bioenergy feedstocks (corn, soybeans, switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and microalgae) and three biofuel products (corn ethanol, soybean biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) at the county level for the contiguous United States. The analysis reveals substantial variation in minimum fuel selling prices due to these scenarios. High-yield crops like algae showed low sensitivity to land costs, while low-yield crops such as soybeans were highly sensitive. Geographical differences were significant, with minimum fuel selling price increases most pronounced in high-value land regions like the Corn Belt. Case studies further illustrate the influence of local productivity and land costs on economic outcomes across the United States. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining consistent land cost assumptions in biofuel economic assessments. By quantifying the interplay between land value, crop productivity, and economic feasibility, this study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders to advance sustainable energy solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The biogeography of soil and airborne fungi in the Southwestern USA in relation to climate and vegetation

To assess how fungal dispersal might respond to climate change, we examined how climate and geography influence the regional distribution of fungi in soil and air. Specifically, we hypothesized that neighboring fungal communities should be more similar than distant communities (i.e. spatially autocorrelated) and that fungal dispersal should be more limited in soil than in air. We collected soil and air samples from 60 sites across five states in the Southwestern USA. Then, we sequenced the ITS2 region to identify fungal taxa in each sample. Next, we used distance-based redundancy analysis to partition variation in fungal community composition between climate variables and spatial structure. Fungi were indeed spatially autocorrelated. Moreover, precipitation, maximum vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture were significantly related to fungal community composition in soils. In comparison, only precipitation was significantly related to community composition in the air. After accounting for climate, the strength of spatial autocorrelation did not differ significantly in soilborne versus airborne fungi. Dispersal limitation was evident in soilborne fungi at short distances (<100 km) and was not observed at any distance in airborne fungi. Altogether, climate may influence which fungal taxa are present in soil and air, and fungi could feasibly wind disperse over regional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial analysis of preterm and small-for-gestational age births in Washington D.C.

Background: This study is based on the recognition that adverse pregnancy outcomes significantly affect maternal and infant health, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. These outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of individual-level factors—like maternal age and education—and community-level influences, including socio-economic status and access to healthcare. Understanding these determinants is crucial for developing effective public health strategies, especially for marginalized populations, by identifying high-risk areas and informing targeted interventions that address both individual and structural barriers. Methods: We utilized geospatial analysis to explore the association between individual- and community-level factors and adverse pregnancy outcomes, specifically preterm birth (PTB) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birthweight in Washington, D.C. We used Empirical Bayes smoothing methods to calculate rates of adverse birth outcomes from 2010 to 2018 at the U.S. Census tract–level. Spatial scan statistics were used to investigate if adverse birth outcomes clustered in specific areas. ANOVA tests were conducted for individual- and community-level factors within identified clusters. Results: Spatial analysis identified significant high-risk clusters for PTB and SGA infants primarily in southeastern Washington, D.C., particularly in Wards 7 and 8. Individuals residing within these clusters experienced a 47% increased risk of PTB (RR = 1.467) and a 56% increased risk of SGA (RR = 1.560) compared to those outside clusters. Space–time analysis revealed temporal variation, with PTB clusters persisting from 2011 to 2014 and SGA clusters extending through 2017. Compared to low-risk clusters, high-risk clusters had younger birthing individuals (mean age ~26.5 vs. ~33 years), lower maternal college degree attainment (~20% vs. ~80%), higher rates of late or no prenatal care (~16% vs. 11%), and increased prevalence of smoking and hypertension (all P < 0.001). Community-level indicators showed lower median household incomes ($\$40,000$ vs. ~$\$105,000$), greater poverty (~16% vs. ~7% below $\$10,000$/year), higher public assistance use (~32% vs. ~5%), and reduced healthcare access (greater distances to emergency and specialty care) in high-risk areas (all P < 0.001). Neighborhood deprivation indices were significantly elevated, commutes were longer, and population density was lower in these clusters. These findings highlight that adverse birth outcomes cluster in neighborhoods with pronounced socioeconomic and health disparities. Conclusion: High-risk birth clusters highlight intertwined factors: individual, socio-economic, and geographic. Addressing these requires comprehensive interventions focusing on social and structural determinants of health.

Birth outcomes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward Standardized Microscale Tensile Testing for Two‐Photon Polymerization‐Fabricated Materials in Liquid

Two-photon polymerization (TPP) enables the fabrication of intricate 3D microstructures with submicron precision, offering significant potential in biomedical applications like tissue engineering. In such applications, to print materials and structures with defined mechanics, it is crucial to understand how TPP printing parameters impact the material properties in a physiologically relevant liquid environment. Herein, an experimental approach utilizing microscale tensile testing (μTT) for the systematic measurement of TPP-fabricated microfibers submerged in liquid as a function of printing parameters is introduced. Using a diurethane dimethacrylate-based resin, the influence of printing parameters on microfiber geometry is first explored, demonstrating cross-sectional areas ranging from 1 to 36 μm 2 . Tensile testing reveals Young's moduli between 0.5 and 1.5 GPa and yield strengths from 10 to 60 MPa. The experimental data show an excellent fit with the Ogden hyperelastic polymer model, which enables a detailed analysis of how variations in writing speed, laser power, and printing path influence the mechanical properties of TPP microfibers. The μTT method is also showcased for evaluating multiple commercial resins and for performing cyclic loading experiments. Collectively, this study builds a foundation toward a standardized microscale tensile testing framework to characterize the mechanical properties of TPP printed structures.

mechanical characterization↗
DOE OSTI2022

The value of in-reservoir energy storage for flexible dispatch of geothermal power

Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of refrigerant undercharge faults on building indoor conditions and HVAC system operation in residential Buildings: A simulation study

This study investigates the impact of refrigerant undercharge on indoor temperature and HVAC system performance in residential buildings. Simulation models for typical residential buildings in Orlando, FL and Indianapolis, IN were developed using the ResStock database. A refrigerant undercharge fault model was then applied to the simulations with varying levels of fault intensity. The paper offers an extensive analysis, revealing that variations in supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and cooling energy consumption due to the level of refrigerant undercharge faults are notably significant on a summer representative day. Similarly, on a winter representative day, changes in supply air temperature and runtime are significant as well as changes in supplemental heat energy consumption. We find that occupants may remain oblivious to these faults during the cooling season, particularly when the HVAC system is oversized; in that case, supply air temperature data could help detect a fault. Another challenge is that during the heating season, when the supplemental heater operates, it is difficult to identify a refrigerant undercharge fault using only indoor and supply air temperature data. Finally, this study finds that supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and supplemental heater energy consumption data can help in detecting refrigerant undercharge faults.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-pressure ignition delay time measurements of a four-component gasoline surrogate and its high-level blends with ethanol and methyl acetate

Ignition delay times of a gasoline surrogate (iso-octane/toluene/n-heptane/1-hexene at 55/25/15/5% by liquid volume, developed in McCormick et al. 2017) with high-level bioblendstock-gasoline surrogate blends (50% and 85% biofuel by liquid volume of each ethanol and methyl acetate) were collected behind reflected shock waves. Post-reflected-shock temperatures ranged from 968 to 1361 K at pressures of about 4, 10, 25, and 50 atm. Data were collected for real fuel–air mixtures at fuel lean and stoichiometric conditions (φ = 0.5, 1.0) with focus on the more-practical, fuel-lean conditions. Ignition delay times were measured from OH* chemiluminescence around 307 nm using an endwall diagnostic. The RON and MON of the surrogate were 90.3 and 84.7, respectively. Ethanol was chosen due to its wide use in flex-fuel vehicles and availability, while also providing an increased octane rating. Methyl acetate was chosen for its especially high octane rating to investigate the effect of an extreme case. To validate the gasoline surrogate, the data are compared to real gasoline (RD387) and several gasoline surrogate experiments from the literature. Using the wide range of pressures studied, the gasoline surrogate’s pressure dependence was quantified to account for test-to-test variations using regression analysis. Similarly, a global correlation for gasoline and its surrogates was developed using all available data from the literature. Two modern chemical kinetics models targeting gasoline and its surrogates are compared to the ignition delay time measurements. These new high-pressure, high-bioblendstock concentration tests provide required chemical kinetic data for optimizing fuel and engine design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Directed energy deposition of radially functionally graded nickel based superalloys IN625 and IN738: Microstructure and mechanical properties

This study investigates the microstructure and mechanical properties of radially functionally graded (RFG) materials fabricated from nickel-based superalloys IN625 and IN738 using directed energy deposition (DED). RFG cylindrical deposits with radial gradients of IN625-IN738 and IN738-IN625 were successfully fabricated and confirmed to be crack-free through tailored composition grading, scan strategy and process parameters that minimized thermal gradients and solidification velocities. Microstructural analysis revealed distinct variations across the gradient, characterized by differences in dendrite arm spacing, microsegregation, and the formation of distinct γ' precipitates and carbide/boride phases (MC, M 6 C, M 2 C, and MB 2 ) in as-deposited (AD) conditions, which evolved into M 23 C 6 and M 2 B upon subsequent heat treatment (HT). EBSD showed predominant columnar grains with a [100] texture, while microhardness profiles demonstrated consistent variation across the gradients. Mechanical testing highlighted the synergy of the graded structure, combining IN738's strength with IN625's ductility, resulting in enhanced properties such as a yield strength of 1131 MPa, ultimate tensile strength of 1382 MPa, and elongation of 12 % for HT IN625-IN738 grading. Numerical simulations employing CALPHAD thermodynamic calculations and finite element thermal modeling are used to establish phase evolution and microstructural feature correlation with thermal profiles, aiding in the optimization of process-structure-property relationship.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of fission product distribution and composition in the TRISO layers of AGR-2 fuel

The Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Qualification and Development Program's second irradiation experiment focuses on the performance of fuel particles produced in an industrial-scale coating system. Ongoing post-irradiation examination efforts include exploration of tristructural-isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel in the as-irradiated state and subjected to elevated temperatures to simulate accident conditions (safety testing). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) was used to show the distribution of fission products within the TRISO layers. The SEM analysis showed a variation of fission product distribution within the TRISO layers based on irradiation temperature, burnup, individual particle fission product inventory retention, safety testing history and kernel composition. Finally, a key observation is that particles which likely experienced higher temperature showed a greater diversity and distribution of fission products and actinides in the IPyC and SiC layers, implying that temperature is a dominant variable influencing the transport of radionuclides in TRISO particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii

The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interlayer spacing in pillared and grafted MCM-22 type silicas: density functional theory analysis versus experiment

Pillaring of synthetic layered crystalline silicates and aluminosilicates provides a strategy to enhance their adsorption and separation performance, and can facilitate the understanding of such behavior in more complex natural clays. In this study, we perform the first-principles density functional theory calculations for the pillaring of the pure silica polymorph of an MCM-22 type molecular sieve. Starting with a precursor material MCM-22P with fully hydroxylated layers, a pillaring agent, (EtO) 3 SiR, can react with hydroxyl groups (–OH) on adjacent internal surfaces, 2(–OH) + (EtO) 3 SiR + H 2 O → (–O) 2 SiOHR + 3EtOH, to form a pillar bridging these surfaces, or with a single hydroxyl, –OH + (EtO) 3 SiR + 2H 2 O → (–O)Si(OH) 2 R + 3EtOH, grafting to one surface. For computational efficiency, we replace the experimental organic ligand, R, by a methyl group. We find that the interlayer spacing in MCM-22 is reduced by 2.66 Å relative to weakly bound layers in the precursor MCM-22P. Including (–O) 2 SiR bridges for 50% (100%) of the hydroxyl sites in MCM-22P increases the interlayer spacing relative to MCM-22 by 2.52 Å (2.46 Å). For comparison, we also analyze the system where all –OH groups in MCM-22P are replaced by non-bridging grafted (–O)Si(OH) 2 R which results in a smaller interlayer spacing expansion of 2.17 Å relative to MCM-22. Our results for the interlayer spacing in the pillared materials are compatible with experimental observations for a similar MCM-22 type material with low Al content (Si : Al = 51 : 1) of an expansion relative to MCM-22 of roughly 2.8 Å and 2.5 Å from our x-ray diffraction and scanning transmission electron microscopy analyses, respectively. The latter analysis reveals significant variation in individual layer spacings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Brighter-fatter Effect in Near-infrared Detectors—III. Fourier-domain Treatment of Flat Field Correlations and Application to WFIRST

Weak gravitational lensing has emerged as a leading probe of the growth of cosmic structure. However, the shear signal is very small and accurate measurement depends critically on our ability to understand how non-ideal instrumental effects affect astronomical images. The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) will fly a focal plane containing 18 Teledyne H4RG-10 near-infrared detector arrays, which present different instrument calibration challenges from previous weak lensing observations. Previous work [Paper I: Hirata & Choi, PASP, 132, 014501 (2020); and Paper II: Choi & Hirata, PASP, 132, 014502 (2020)] has shown that correlation functions of flat field images, including cross-correlations between different time slices that are enabled by the non-destructive read capability of the infrared detectors, are effective tools for disentangling linear and nonlinear inter-pixel capacitance (IPC) and the brighter-fatter effect (BFE). Here we present a Fourier-domain treatment of the flat field correlations, which allows us to expand the previous formalism to all orders in IPC, BFE, and classical nonlinearity. We show that biases in simulated flat field analyses in Paper I are greatly reduced through the use of this formalism. We then apply this updated formalism to flat field data from three WFIRST flight candidate detectors, and explore the robustness to variations in the analysis. We find that the BFE is present in all three detectors, and that its contribution to the flat field correlations dominates over the nonlinear IPC, in accordance with the results from Paper II on a development detector. The magnitude of the BFE is such that the effective area of a pixel is increased by (3.54 ± 0.03) × 10 -7 for every electron deposited in a neighboring pixel (sensor chip assembly [SCA] 20829, statistical error, not IPC-deconvolved). We compare IPC maps from flat field autocorrelation measurements to those obtained from the single pixel reset method and find a median difference of 0.113% for SCA 20829. After further diagnosis of this difference, we ascribe it largely to an additional source of cross-talk, the vertical trailing pixel effect, and recommend further work to develop a model for this effect. These results represent a significant step toward calibration of the non-ideal effects in WFIRST detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aeroelastic code comparison using the IEA 22MW reference turbine

Reference wind turbine designs and the associated aeroelastic models are widely used in both research and industry. Reference models representing future concepts are of particular interest. Current state of the art aeroelastic tools are relied upon to design the next generation of large wind turbines. However, modelling assumptions may be invalidated by upcoming very large turbines, and different aeroelastic tools may give inconsistent results. A 22MW turbine model has been defined as part of International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 55 on Reference Wind Turbines and Farms to represent future turbines to be deployed in the 2030s. In this study, an aeroelastic model of this turbine has been created in four tools; Bladed, HAWC2, OpenFAST, and QBlade. Code comparisons are presented for steady state operation, linear stability analysis, and time domain power production simulations in steady and turbulent wind. Generally, the codes show a good agreement, but with some differences present in the linear stability analysis, periodic azimuthal variation, and time domain simulations. The models are a good basis for further study with the IEA 22MW turbine, and further code comparison exercises.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗