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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Optical rate sensor algorithms

Optical sensors, in particular Charge Coupled Device (CCD) arrays, will be used on Space Station to track stars in order to provide inertial attitude reference. Algorithms are presented to derive attitude rate from the optical sensors. The first algorithm is a recursive differentiator. A variance reduction factor (VRF) of 0.0228 was achieved with a rise time of 10 samples. A VRF of 0.2522 gives a rise time of 4 samples. The second algorithm is based on the direct manipulation of the pixel intensity outputs of the sensor. In 1-dimensional simulations, the derived rate was with 0.07 percent of the actual rate in the presence of additive Gaussian noise with a signal to noise ratio of 60 dB.

Uhde-Lacovara, Jo A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Efficiency and discrepancy in the direct simulation methods

The paper reviews the factors that affect the versatility, computational efficiency, and accuracy of the various direct simulation methods that are being applied to problems in rarefied gas dynamics. The quality of the simulation can be affected by the underlying motivation and objectives. The influence of computer hardware developments on the cost-effectiveness is discussed, as are the software factors that influence the speed with which simulation programs can be applied to new problems. Particular attention is given to a novel method that improves the efficiency of the simulation for complex three-dimensional problems. The topical issues of reduced resolution procedures, stored lists, and variance reduction schemes are discussed in some detail.

Bird, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Efficiency and discrepancy in the direct simulation methods

The paper reviews the factors that affect the versatility, computational efficiency, and accuracy of the various direct simulation methods that are being applied to problems in rarefied gas dynamics. The influence of computer hardware developments on the cost-effectiveness is discussed, as are the software factors that influence the speed with which simulation programs can be applied to new problems. Particular attention is given to a novel method that improves the efficiency of the simulation for complex 3D problems. The topical issues of reduced resolution procedures, stored lists, and variance reduction schemes are discussed in some detail.

Bird, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

General Monte Carlo reliability simulation code including common mode failures and HARP fault/error-handling

A Monte Carlo Fortran computer program was developed that uses two variance reduction techniques for computing system reliability applicable to solving very large highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. The program is consistent with the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) code which employs behavioral decomposition and complex fault-error handling models. This new capability is called MC-HARP which efficiently solves reliability models with non-constant failures rates (Weibull). Common mode failure modeling is also a specialty.

Platt, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Inclusion of the second Umkehr in the conventional Umkehr retrieval analysis as a means of improving ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere

The Umkehr method for retrieving the gross features of the vertical ozone distribution requires measurements of the ratio of zenith-sky radiances at two wavelengths in the near-UV region while the solar zenith angle (SZA) changes from 60 to 90 degrees. A Brewer spectrophotometer was used for taking such measurements extending the SZA range down to 96 degrees. Analyzed data from the Spring of 1991 imply that observations at twilight are of great significance in improving ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere. Judged by the variance reduction for Umkehr layers 9 to 12 (25-30 percent for layer 11) and the increase in separation and amplitude of the averaging kernels for the relevant layers, the ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere are shown to be in better agreement with climatological means.

Gioulgkidis, Konstantinos↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Climatic Variability on Atmospheric Mass Distribution and GRACE-Derived Gravity Fields

During the period we calculated the atmospheric data sets related to its mass and angular momentum distribution. For mass, we determined the various harmonics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, especially the low-order harmonics that are useful in studying the gravitation distribution as will be determined from the GRACE mission. Atmospheric mass is also related to the atmospheric loading on the solid Earth; we cooperated with scientists who needed the atmospheric mass information for understanding its contributions to the overall loading, necessary for vertical and horizontal coordinate estimation. We calculated atmospheric angular momentum from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and 4 operational meteorological centers, based on the motion (wind) terms and the mass (surface pressure) terms. These are associated with motions of the planet, including its axial component causing changes in the length of day, more related to the winds, and the equatorial component related to motions of the pole, more related to the mass. Tasks related to the ocean mass and angular momentum were added to the project as well. For these we have noted the ocean impact on motions of the pole as well as the torque mechanisms that relate the transfer of angular momentum between oceans and solid earth. The activities of the project may be summarized in the following first manuscript written in December 2002, for a symposium that Dr. Salstein attended on Geodynamics. We have continued to assess ocean angular momentum (OAM) quantities derived from bottom pressure and velocity fields estimated with our finite-difference barotropic (single layer) model. Three years of output (1993-95) from a run without any data constraints was compared to output from a corresponding run that was constrained by altimeter data using a Kalman filter and smoother scheme. Respective OAM time series were combined with corresponding atmospheric series and compared to observed polar motion. The constrained OAM series provided slightly better variance reduction than the unconstrained series. Analysis provided a check on the estimation scheme and pointed to further work to improve the determination of OAM using this method. A significant effort was also devoted to quantifying effects of uncertainties in high frequency winds on the mean and seasonal momentum exchange between atmosphere and oceans.

Salstein, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

On the Exploitation of Sensitivity Derivatives for Improving Sampling Methods

Many application codes, such as finite-element structural analyses and computational fluid dynamics codes, are capable of producing many sensitivity derivatives at a small fraction of the cost of the underlying analysis. This paper describes a simple variance reduction method that exploits such inexpensive sensitivity derivatives to increase the accuracy of sampling methods. Three examples, including a finite-element structural analysis of an aircraft wing, are provided that illustrate an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy for both Monte Carlo and stratified sampling schemes.

Cao, Yanzhao↗
NASA NTRS2006

Diurnal Variability of Vertical Structure from a TRMM Passive Microwave "Virtual Radar" Retrieval

Robust description of the diurnal cycle from TRMM observations is complicated by the limitations of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sampling; from a 'climatological' perspective, sufficient sampling must exist to control for both spatial and seasonal variability, before tackling an additional diurnal component (e.g., with 8 additional 3-hourly or 24 1-hourly bins). For documentation of vertical structure, the narrow sample swath of the TRMM Precipitation Radar limits the resolution of any of these components. A neural-network based 'virtual radar" retrieval has been trained and internally validated, using multifrequency / multipolarization passive microwave(TM1) brightness temperatures and textures parameters and lightning (LIS) observations, as inputs, and PR volumetric reflectivity as targets (outputs). By training the algorithms (essentially highly multivariate, nonlinear regressions) on a very large sample of high-quality co-located data from the center of the TRMM swath, 3D radar reflectivity and derived parameters (VIL, IWC, Echo Tops, etc.) can be retrieved across the entire TMI swath, good to 8-9% over the dynamic range of parameters. As a step in the retrieval (and as an output of the process), each TMI multifrequency pixel (at 85 GHz resolution) is classified into one of the 25 archetypal radar profile vertical structure "types", previously identified using cluster analysis. The dynamic range of retrieved vertical structure appears to have higher fidelity than the current (Version 6) experimental GPROF hydrometeor vertical structure retrievals. This is attributable to correct representation of the prior probabilities of vertical structure variability in the neural network training data, unlike the GPROF cloud-resolving model training dataset used in the V6 algorithms. The LIS lightning inputs are supplementary inputs, and a separate offline neural network has been trained to impute (predict) LIS lightning from passive-microwave-only data. The virtual radar retrieval is thus, in principle, extensible to Aqua/AMSR-E and NPOESS/CMIS passive microwave instruments. The virtual radar approach yields a threefold increase in effective sampling from the mission, albeit of lower-quality "retrieved" data, reducing the variance of local estimates by one third (or the standard deviation by-0.57). In this talk, the variance reduction is leveraged to more finely resolve global diurnal variability in both space and time (local hour).

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Affordable Development Strategy for NEP Nuclear Systems

One nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) reactor systems under consideration is a hydride moderated thermal spectrum reactor fueled by high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). While such a reactor is expected to yield the lightest HALEU reactor design, its development challenges grow exponentially with increasing mission demands, most notably power output, specific weight of the overall system (which may require operation at temperatures exceeding 1200 K), service lifetime, and human-rated reliability. Two of the greatest cost drivers are full-powered nuclear demonstrations and extensive material development campaigns, so it is important to consider options that can minimize the need for or complexity of such tasks. This paper discusses a structured framework being developed for assessing how NEP design choices, such as materials selection, neutronic features, and heat-removal technologies, can translate into project risk and how project performance goals can be traded with development cost.Reactors operating at high temperatures often require cutting-edge heat transfer technologies and creep-resistant materials. Use of new materials in high temperature reactors brings additional complication beyond those common to any new space materials development campaign. For example, such materials may not possess necessary neutronic cross-sectional or neutronic irradiation data. Similarly, use of new materials may significantly influence core neutronics; in some extreme cases, neutronic reactivity feed-back of certain new materials can vary during their service life as radiation damage impacts the scattering cross-section. In an affordable development approach, high fidelity modeling and simulation tools are used to identify and characterize potential ‘knees-in-the-curves’ in the relationship that exists between the mission characteristics and the project risk. Of particular significance is use of modern uncertainty management and variance reduction methods to perform gap analyses that feed into phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) commonly used to communicate nuclear readiness levels. Model-based measurements techniques are used to design sub-scale experiments as a substitute to minimize orcompletely eliminate the need for nuclear demonstrations.This paper will describe the approach and present preliminary results. It will lay the groundwork for developing a set of metrics that can be broadly characterized as system nuclear readiness levels and advancement degree of difficulty for nuclear systems. Equally importantly, a goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue among stakeholders on what is the sufficient level of maturity that is required for launching a demonstration unit.

Dasari V Rao↗
NASA NTRS2021

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of MCNP Training Modules for Safeguards Practitioners [Abstract]

The Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) software developed at LANL is the most widely used neutron transport code in the world. It is an essential tool for a variety of applications including detector development and design, nuclear fuel burnup simulation, criticality safety, and nondestructive assay system optimization. For this reason, it is indispensable within the safeguards and materials control & accountability (MC&A) communities. Multiple MCNP training courses have been created and taught over the last several decades by the MCNP development team at LANL, however there are no existing courses that cover specialized topics considered fundamental to NDA and safeguards models. To fill this gap, the MCNP team and Safeguards Science and Technology group at LANL have co-created a set of training modules customized to meet the specialized needs of the safeguards and MC&A communities. The basic modules cover concepts such as NDA system optimization, He-specific and other capture tallies, and tools for improved theoretical understanding. An advanced module was also created to cover topics including variance reduction for active interrogation simulations, use of the LANL MCNPTools post-processor, PTRAC (particle tracking) and list-mode data simulations, and fuel burnup simulations. The training modules teach to the latest and most state-of-the-art MCNP features and tools released by the development team at LANL and are intended to be taught jointly by the developers and safeguards experts. Ultimately, we hope that creation of these modules will serve to capture and convey the safeguards modeling and MCNP expertise at LANL, and that we will be able to share the modules more broadly with the MC&A and safeguards communities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Three Averaging Techniques for Reduction of Antenna Temperature Variance Measured by a Dicke Mode, C-Band Radiometer

As new radiometer technologies provide the possibility of greatly improved spatial resolution, their performance must also be evaluated in terms of expected sensitivity and absolute accuracy. As aperture size increases, the sensitivity of a Dicke mode radiometer can be maintained or improved by application of any or all of three digital averaging techniques: antenna data averaging with a greater than 50% antenna duty cycle, reference data averaging, and gain averaging. An experimental, noise-injection, benchtop radiometer at C-band showed a 68.5% reduction in Delta-T after all three averaging methods had been applied simultaneously. For any one antenna integration time, the optimum 34.8% reduction in Delta-T was realized by using an 83.3% antenna/reference duty cycle.

Mackenzie, Anne I.↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the effectiveness of Geosat altimeter corrections

Measurements of sea level by a satellite altimeter require a number of corrections for atmospheric and geophysical effects. The paper examines the effectiveness of a large suite of correction terms for Geosat by studying how each correction affects the variances of altimetric sea-surface height differences. Most corrections were found to provide a significant reduction in variance, the most important exception being certain short-period wet-troposphere correlations. The present procedure of using height differences implies nothing about the time-invariant parts of corrections.

Ray, R. D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Regularized Variance-Reduced Modified Extragradient Method for Stochastic Hierarchical Games

We consider an N -player hierarchical game in which the i th player’s objective comprises of an expectation-valued term, parametrized by rival decisions, and a hierarchical term. Such a framework allows for capturing a broad range of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems, Stackelberg equilibrium problems, and leader-follower games. We develop an iteratively regularized and smoothed variance-reduced modified extragradient framework for iteratively approaching hierarchical equilibria in a stochastic setting. We equip our analysis with rate statements, complexity guarantees, and almost-sure convergence results. We then extend these statements to settings where the lower-level problem is solved inexactly and provide the corresponding rate and complexity statements. Our model framework encompasses many game theoretic equilibrium problems studied in the context of power markets. We present a realistic application to the study of virtual power plants, emphasizing the role of hierarchical decision making and regularization. Preliminary numerics suggest that empirical behavior compares well with theoretical guarantees.

Tikhonov regularization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reliability estimation of an advanced nuclear fuel using coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel and determining its reliability is critical for the success of advanced nuclear technologies. However, TRISO failure probabilities are small and the associated computational models are expensive. Here we used coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation to estimate the failure probabilities of TRISO fuels using several 1D and 2D models. With multifidelity modeling, we replaced expensive high-fidelity (HF) model evaluations with information fusion from two low-fidelity (LF) models. For the 1D TRISO models, we considered three multifidelity modeling strategies: only Kriging, Kriging LF prediction plus Kriging correction, and deep neural network (DNN) LF prediction plus Kriging correction. While the results across these multifidelity modeling strategies compared satisfactorily, strategies employing information fusion from two LF models called the HF model least often. Next, for the 2D TRISO model, we considered two multifidelity modeling strategies: DNN LF prediction plus Kriging correction (data-driven) and 1D TRISO LF prediction plus Kriging correction (physics-based). The physics-based strategy, as expected, consistently required the fewest calls to the HF model. However, the data-driven strategy had a lower overall simulation time since the DNN predictions are instantaneous, and the 1D TRISO model requires a non-negligible simulation time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗