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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Transcutaneous and End-Tidal CO 2 Measurements in Hypoxia and Hyperoxia

BACKGROUND: Transcutaneous measurement of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has been proposed for physiological monitoring of tactical jet aircrew because in some clinical settings it mirrors arterial CO 2 partial pressure (P a co 2 ). End-tidal monitoring in laboratory settings is known to give high-fidelity estimates of P a co 2 . METHODS: The correspondence between end-tidal (P ET co 2 ) and transcutaneous Pco 2 (tcPco 2 ) was examined in healthy volunteers under laboratory conditions of hyperoxia and hypoxia. Rest and exercise, skin heating and cooling, hyperventilation, and induced CO 2 retention were employed. RESULTS: Neither measure followed all known changes in P a co 2 and tcPco 2 changed when the skin temperature near the probe changed. Bland-Altman analysis showed significant nonzero slopes under most conditions. Regression analysis indicated that oxygen partial pressure (Po 2 ) in tissue measured as transcutaneous Po 2 (tcPo 2 ) is an important explanatory variable for tcPco 2 in addition to P ET co 2 , and that local skin temperature also has an effect. Additionally, absorption atelectasis from breathing 100% O 2 may cause P ET co 2 to deviate from P a co 2 . DISCUSSION: Even as a trend indicator for P a co 2 , tcPco 2 is not useful under conditions that resemble those in the highly dynamic tactical jet aircraft environment. P ET co 2 is also not a good indicator of CO 2 status in pilots who breathe nearly 100% O 2 . Shykoff BE, Lee LR, Gallo M, Griswold CA. Transcutaneous and end-tidal CO 2 measurements in hypoxia and hyperoxia . Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2021; 92(11):864–872 .

Biophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Observations of Untrained Panelists to Screen for Quality of Fresh-Cut Romaine Lettuce

Fresh-cut romaine lettuce’s high perishability challenges ready-to-eat (RTE) salad production. Selecting cultivars less prone to browning and decay is crucial for extending shelf life. Traditional quality evaluation methods using instrumentation and trained panelists are time-consuming and logistically complex. This study investigated the effectiveness of untrained volunteers in assessing fresh-cut romaine lettuce quality. Given that the average consumer in the USA is familiar with the flavor characteristics of romaine lettuce, this study proposed to investigate the value of having untrained volunteers discern the quality of fresh-cut romaine lettuce. Therefore, six romaine lettuce accessions (Green Forest, King Henry, Parris Island Cos, PI 491224, SM13-R2, and Sun Valley) were assessed for sensory quality attributes (browning, green color, decay, and overall quality) and compared with instrumentation analyses (gas composition including O2 and CO2, electrolyte leakage, and color). The results showed significant quality differences (p < 0.05) among the accessions, with some seasonal variability. Very importantly, the consumers’ (n = 159) assessments revealed similar results to those produced by either instrumentation or a trained panel. The consumers provided sensory scores that allowed for the grouping of accessions based on their postharvest quality, which efficiently matched their pedigree relationship. In conclusion, ad hoc consumer panels can be an effective way to characterize the quality of romaine lettuce for RTE salads.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2020

MicroRNAs in laser-induced choroidal neovascularization in mice and rats: their expression and potential therapeutic targets

Choroidal neovascularization characterizes wet age-related macular degeneration. Choroidal neovascularization formation involves a primarily angiogenic process that is combined with both inflammation and proteolysis. A primary cause of choroidal neovascularization pathogenesis is alterations in pro- and anti-angiogenic factors derived from the retinal pigment epithelium, with vascular endothelium growth factor being mainly responsible for both clinical and experimental choroidal neovascularization. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) which are short, non-coding, endogenous RNA molecules have a major role in regulating various pathological processes, including inflammation and angiogenesis. A review of recent studies with the mouse laser-induced choroidal neovascularization model has shown alterations in miRNA expression in choroidal neovascularization tissues and could be potential therapeutic targets for wet age-related macular degeneration. Upregulation of miR-505 (days 1 and 3 post-laser), miR-155 (day 14) occurred in retina; miR-342-5p (days 3 and 7), miR-126-3p (day 14) in choroid; miR-23a, miR-24, miR-27a (day 7) in retina/choroid; miR-505 (days 1 and 3) in retinal pigment epithelium/choroid; downregulation of miR-155 (days 1 and 3), miR-29a, miR-29b, miR-29c (day 5), miR-93 (day 14), miR-126 (day 14) occurred in retinal pigment epithelium/choroid. Therapies using miRNA mimics or inhibitors were found to decrease choroidal neovascularization lesions. Choroidal neovascularization development was reduced by overexpression of miR-155, miR-188-5p, miR-(5,B,7), miR-126-3p, miR-342-5p, miR-93, miR-126, miR-195a-3p, miR24, miR-21, miR-31, miR-150, and miR-184, or suppression of miR-505, miR-126-3p, miR155, and miR-23/27. Further studies are warranted to determine miRNA expression in mouse laser-induced choroidal neovascularization models in order to validate and extend the reported findings. Important experimental variables need to be standardized; these include the strain and age of animals, gender, number and position of laser burns to the eye, laser parameters to induce choroidal neovascularization lesions including wavelength, power, spot size, and duration.

therapeutic targets↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

SetEnvironment

SAND2025-11727O SetEnvironment software is a utility library module that uses ConfigParserEnhanced, also a library module, to read specifically formatted .ini files for setting the user's environment. It creates a consistent environment with an expected set of variables and module loads, which is important for testing. Environment variable operations include set, append, prepend, unset, remove, and others and uses the Python os.environ methods. The module operations are performed with a wrapper. Systems using the Lmod package can generate a module function, which can also perform module operations specified in the text file. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

McLendon III, William↗
DOE OSTI2022

Amazonian terrestrial water balance inferred from satellite-observed water vapor isotopes

Atmospheric humidity and soil moisture in the Amazon forest are tightly coupled to the region’s water balance, or the difference between two moisture fluxes, evapotranspiration minus precipitation (ET-P). However, large and poorly characterized uncertainties in both fluxes, and in their difference, make it challenging to evaluate spatiotemporal variations of water balance and its dependence on ET or P. Here, we show that satellite observations of the HDO/H 2 O ratio of water vapor are sensitive to spatiotemporal variations of ET-P over the Amazon. When calibrated by basin-scale and mass-balance estimates of ET-P derived from terrestrial water storage and river discharge measurements, the isotopic data demonstrate that rainfall controls wet Amazon water balance variability, but ET becomes important in regulating water balance and its variability in the dry Amazon. Changes in the drivers of ET, such as above ground biomass, could therefore have a larger impact on soil moisture and humidity in the dry (southern and eastern) Amazon relative to the wet Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel approach to partitioning evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration in flooded ecosystems

Reliable partitioning of micrometeorologically measured evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) would greatly enhance our understanding of the water cycle and its response to climate change related shifts in local-to-regional climate conditions and rising global levels of vapor pressure deficit (VPD). While some methods on ET partitioning have been developed, their underlying assumptions make them difficult to apply more generally, especially in sites with large contributions of E. Here, we report a novel ET partitioning method using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in combination with a range of environmental input variables to predict daytime E from nighttime ET measurements. The study uses eddy covariance data from four restored wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA, as well as leaf-level T data for validation. The four wetlands vary in their vegetation make-up and structure, representing a range of ET conditions. The ANNs were built with increasing complexity by adding the input variable that resulted in the next highest average value of model testing R 2 across all sites. The order of variable inclusion (and importance) was: VPD > gap-filled sensible heat flux (H_gf) > air temperature (T air ) > friction velocity (u * ) > other variables. The model using VPD, H_gf, T air , and u * showed the best performance during validation with independent data and had a mean testing R 2 value of 0.853 (averaged across all sites, range from 0.728 to 0.910). In comparison to other methods, our ANN method generated T/ET partitioning results which were more consistent with CO 2 exchange data especially for more heterogeneous sites with large E contributions. Further, our method improves the understanding of T/ET partitioning. While it may be particularly suited to flooded ecosystems, it can also improve T/ET partitioning in other systems, increasing our knowledge of the global water cycle and ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall error propagation to rainfall-runoff model hydrographs

Rainfall is arguably the most important yet most variable input for rainfall-runoff hydrologic models. In this study, the authors search for the characteristics of radar-rainfall estimates that are most important for skillful streamflow predictions. They perform comprehensive hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall characteristics, including spatiotemporal resolution, radar range visibility, statistical characterization of rainfall variability, all vis-a-vis basin characteristics such as size and river network topology. Since the true rainfall fields are unknown, the authors exploit a paradigm of using two independently constructed radar-rainfall products i.e., Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor and IFC-ZR used operationally by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC). Using the distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model for the domain of the state of Iowa, they evaluate streamflow prediction at 140 USGS gauge stations that monitor rivers in Iowa. Through spatial and temporal rainfall aggregation experiments, the authors show that the impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall is significant typically for smaller basins while starts reducing significantly for basins larger than 1,000 km 2 . Other rainfall characteristics they explored do not reveal a strong signature in the relationship of rainfall differences between the two products and hydrograph errors. However, exploring the product similarities rather than differences reveals that the basin-wide rainfall volume has the most significant effect on streamflow prediction. The results from this study are generalizable for all rainfall observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Variability in Reservoir Surface Area Is an Important Source of Uncertainty in GHG Emission Estimates

Ebullitive methane (CH 4 ) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river-lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water-level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km 2 and non-hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH 4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir-wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH 4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two-fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non-linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH 4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full-pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinematic Variables and Feature Engineering for Particle Phenomenology

Kinematic variables have been playing an important role in collider phenomenology, as they expedite discoveries of new particles by separating signal events from unwanted background events and allow for measurements of particle properties such as masses, couplings, spins, etc. For the past 10 years, an enormous number of kinematic variables have been designed and proposed, primarily for the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, allowing for a drastic reduction of high-dimensional experimental data to lower-dimensional observables, from which one can readily extract underlying features of phase space and develop better-optimized data-analysis strategies. We review these recent developments in the area of phase space kinematics, summarizing the new kinematic variables with important phenomenological implications and physics applications. We also review recently proposed analysis methods and techniques specifically designed to leverage the new kinematic variables. As machine learning is nowadays percolating through many fields of particle physics including collider phenomenology, we discuss the interconnection and mutual complementarity of kinematic variables and machine learning techniques. We finally discuss how the utilization of kinematic variables originally developed for colliders can be extended to other high-energy physics experiments including neutrino experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Crack tip microplasticity mediated by microstructure gradients

Abstract Traditional fracture theories infer damage at cracks (local field) by surveying loading conditions away from cracks (far field). This approach has been successful in predicting ductile fracture, but it normally assumes isotropic and homogeneous materials. However, myriads of manufacturing procedures induce heterogeneous microstructural gradients that can affect the accuracy of traditional fracture models. This work presents a microstructure‐sensitive finite element approach to explore the shielding effects of grain size and crystallographic orientation gradients on crack tip microplasticity and blunting. A dislocation density‐based crystal plasticity model conveys texture evolution, grain size effects, and directional hardening by computing the constraint from dislocation structures. The results demonstrate that the microstructure can act as a buffer between the local and far fields that affects the crack tip microplasticity variability. For nominal opening loading, grain size and texture affect the local ductility and induce a non‐negligible multiaxial plastic deformation. Furthermore, driving forces based on measuring displacements away from the crack tip are less affected by the microstructure, which suggests that traditional experimental methods smear out important crack tip variability.

Castelluccio, Gustavo M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of the U.S. economy to oil prices controlling for domestic production and imports

This paper investigates the sensitivity of U.S. economic performance to oil price changes, accounting for changes in the domestic petroleum supply-demand balance over the last decade. Herein, a non-linear (asymmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to estimate the U.S. GDP elasticity with respect to the oil price, controlling for oil production, consumption and imports, and macroeconomic variables. The positive and negative components of the oil price both have statistically significant long-run impacts on the real U.S. GDP. The parameter estimates imply that a 1% positive and permanent oil price shock, all else the same, would have a long-run impact of –0.045% on the U.S. economy (an elasticity of –0.045), but short-run parameters on the positive oil price terms are not significant at the 10% level. The long-run parameter on the negative oil price component term implies an elasticity of –0.034. Thus, controlling for domestic U.S. oil production and oil trade, the long-run oil price elasticity of the U.S. GDP remains within the range of estimates from previous studies. The results also show that domestic oil production and consumption have short-run impacts on the U.S. GDP. The potential extent of interactions among these variables, and implications for the net economic impacts, under an oil price shock are subjects of future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗