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At least 109 records · Page 6

Role of Electric Vehicles in the U.S. Power Sector Transition: A System-Level Perspective

After over a century of petroleum dominance many anticipate that electrification could disrupt the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes: variable renewables are displacing conventional generation sources; distributed generation is disrupting utility business models; energy storage and other new technologies are emerging; and the traditional system based on the premise that generation is dispatched to match an inelastic demand is evolving to create a system with greater participation in power system planning and operations from traditionally passive consumers. In this context, it is important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand and in turn electricity supply, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system and the opportunity to leverage flexible electric vehicle (EV) charging to better integrate demand and supply. Assessing the impacts of electrification on the energy system requires an understanding of how it might impact the amount and shape of electricity consumption, and how this electricity can be supplied. In particular, increased adoption of electric vehicles introduces a new source of demand altogether, potentially very flexible. Moreover, electrification could shift the consumption of natural gas between sectors, thereby affecting the economics for natural gas-fired generation relative to other electricity generation options. Several factors will impact the evolution of the power system under a widespread electrified future, which, in turn, could have far-reaching effects on future energy costs and emissions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Lower Snake River Dams Contribution to Grid Services

Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Net-Zero Carbon Microgrids

The microgrid concept has been effective in creating aggregations of distributed energy resources—generation, storage and loads—for resiliency, in the form of energy security. The success of microgrids in bringing energy security to a wide range of customers—from individual residences to commercial and industrial installations to military bases—has been exemplified during power disruptions and extended outages due to extreme weather events, cybersecurity attacks, and equipment failures. Now microgrids have an opportunity to meet the challenges of climate change and contribute to a carbon-free power delivery system. The transition to net-zero starts within microgrids themselves. In fact, today’s microgrids are largely dominated by generators using fossil fuels, natural gas and diesel, with high greenhouse gas emissions. In short, the transition to net-zero means replacing fossil fueled generators with renewable generation in microgrids. This transition is extended by including new dispatchable generation technologies that are 100% carbon-free and that offer additional advantage of a more-dependable and sustainable source of energy and power. Basically, the decarbonization of microgrids requires three elements: 1) maximizing generation from renewable energy resources, 2) management of storage and flexible loads to balance the variability and intermittency of renewable energy resources, and 3) introducing new clean power sources, including hydrogen-based generation and small modular reactors. This report affirms a need for specific focus by governmental agencies at national, regional, and local levels to establish technology, policy, and investment in this area. The intention of the Net-Zero Microgrid (NZM) Program is to inform these constituencies with cross-cutting research and tools for the reduction of GHG in microgrids – to net-zero in the near term eventually to zero in the longer term. The NZM Program is committed to achieving decarbonization for resiliency and for providing clean energy at the local or distribution level, from remote communities to underserved communities, and large industrial and military facilities. The NZM Planning and Design Platform is a core tool to be developed as an early deliverable of the NZM Program because only a fully integrated microgrid-design approach will ensure maximum carbon reduction in energy production.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

battery↗

Variability and Diversity Load Model Tool [SWR-20-03]

The motivation for the development of this tool and the underlying algorithms and methods was to enable the development of high-temporal resolution, realistic time-series data for quasi-static time-series (QSTS) analysis of distribution systems. Often, aggregated load profile data for a distribution circuit is available (e.g. feeder loading data collected via SCADA at the utility substation) and, while this data is typically accurate it masks the considerable variability of the 100’s or 1000’s of individual loads connected on the circuit. This tool was developed to model both the increased variability expected for these individual loads (e.g. the load of a single distribution transformer connected to 8-12 houses) and the expected diversity between loads on the circuit. It is important to note that the difference in variability and diversity, in the context of this tool, is that variability modeling only adds representative variability due to disaggregated load characteristics (e.g. the presence in the load profile of loads turning off and on like an air conditioner/oven) while the average energy profile remains the same as the user supplied power profile. Diversity modeling generates multiple individual load profiles which, in aggregate, sum to the user supplied power profile. Diversity is effectively variability in the energy usage over longer periods of time than seen in the variability model. Put another way, variability modeling supplies the expected variability due to the operation of various end-use loads and diversity modeling supplies the usage differences due to human behavior, schedules, etc. This load modeling tool was developed for use in generating data for distribution systems. Modeling is summarized by two major functions: 1) taking low resolution load profiles and adding intra-seconds variability onto the profiles, and 2) taking a user supplied load profile and distribution factors and adding both diversity and variability to the user supplied profile.

Zhu, Xiangqi↗

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗

Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation

Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Demonstration System for Geological Thermal Energy Storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as variable energy technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage [1]. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. The energy capacity cost of GeoTES is very low which makes it suitable for both daily- and seasonal storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) energy, thus enabling CST to provide value to electricity markets and thermal energy off-takers. A CST-GeoTES demonstration system has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technology Office. In this article, we will describe this demonstration system and progress that has been made in its development. The demonstration system will comprise a 2 MWth parabolic trough with an 8m aperture developed by Gossamer Space Frames, seven wells, and a 100 kWe power cycle. The demonstration system will be deployed in Kern County, California by Premier Resource Management. A techno-economic model for CST-GeoTES systems has also been developed [3] and is applied to the demonstration system and its planned future expansion. The model integrates the output of specialist models of each subsystem, which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models enable the performance to be evaluated at each hour of the year, before being aggregated to evaluate the economic potential of CST-GeoTES. Initial analysis indicates that CST-GeoTES can provide long duration energy storage capabilities with low marginal costs of energy capacity - leading to a low value of Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) compared to alternative technologies, see Figure 2. In this article, we investigate the cost and performance of the specific demonstration site being developed by PRM and explore a range of operational profiles that can deliver different value streams, such as daily and seasonal storage, capacity, and resiliancy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synergistic Heat Pumped Thermal Storage and Flexibly Carbon Capture System

As the U.S. grid evolves toward a lower-carbon system, fossil generation assets need to operate in energy markets with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration while also decreasing carbon emissions. Current carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies suffer from high capital cost and an inability to operate flexibly during periods of oscillating demand. The ARPA-E FLECCS Program Phase 1 was created to fund designing and optimizing innovative CCS processes that enable flexibility on a high-VRE grid. To address this need, the Colorado State University (CSU) Team won funding to design a synergized system of thermal energy storage, power generation, and flexible carbon capture to enable breakthrough system performance that achieves an LCOE <$75/MWh with >99% capture rate. This approach will target new or existing natural gas combined cycle power plants. The proposed design utilizes novel hot and cold thermal energy storage (TES) technologies that store low-cost, off-peak electricity as thermal energy to power CCS solvent regeneration and boost plant output during periods of peak demand. The design provides an overall optimized net present value (NPV) by maximizing low carbon power to grid while prices are highest using Storworks Power’s concrete TES technology. The team also capitalizes on decades of ION Clean Energy’s (ION) development in low cost and flexible pioneering solvent technology, which has proven reductions in energy consumption and overall cost of 28% and 38%, respectively, compared with state-of-the-art CCS.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Drought Impacts on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Western United States

The Western United States experiences large fluctuations in rain and snowfall from year to year, affecting river flows and reservoir levels throughout the region. This interannual variability in water resources leaves a strong signature on total annual energy generated by the region’s fleet of hydroelectric dams. In a wet year, like 2011, hydroelectric power can meet 30 percent of annual western electricity demand. That contribution can drop below 20 percent during severe drought years. Characterizing the contribution of hydroelectric power to the western generation portfolio during drought is crucial to understanding the resilience of the hydropower sector to climate-related risk, both now and in the future. This report analyzes the impacts of historical western droughts on hydroelectric power production by combining two decades’ worth of annual generation—recorded at more than 600 hydroelectric power plants—with historical climate data developed for distinct hydropower subregions of the West. The most extreme impacts of drought on hydroelectric power are found at individual dams where reservoir levels are so low that released water and thus generation becomes severely restricted. These isolated cases often receive widespread media attention, leading to a common misconception that hydroelectric power is an unreliable technology whose role will diminish over time as the western climate produces longer and more severe droughts. Yet, when aggregated to the scale of the West, the observational records of hydropower generation reveal a different story. Even during the most severe droughts experienced since the turn of the century, the western hydropower fleet sustained more than 80% of its typical annual generation. Observational data indicate that drought in 2021 led to the worst year for hydropower generation in the West since 2001, with total generation approximately 16 percent below the 21st century two-decade average. The year 2021 was particularly severe in California (second worst hydro year of last two decades, ~48 percent below average) and Oregon (worst hydro year of last two decades), while generation in Washington and Idaho was affected to a lesser degree (~12 percent below average for combined region). The year 2001 remains the year of lowest western hydropower generation of the twenty-first century so far, owing to extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest, where about two-thirds of western hydropower capacity is located. The primary reason for this relative stability is the diversity of weather across the West; drought rarely impairs hydroelectric power across all river basins at the same time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Pathways to the Next-Generation Power System With Inverter-Based Resources: Challenges and recommendations

Managing the stability of today's electric power systems is based on decades of experience with the physical properties and control responses of large synchronous generators. Today's electric power systems are rapidly transitioning toward having an increasing proportion of generation from nontraditional sources, such as wind and solar (among others), as well as energy storage devices, such as batteries. In addition to the variable nature of many renewable generation sources (because of the weather-driven nature of their fuel supply), these newer sources vary in size - from residential-scale rooftop systems to utility-scale power plants - and they are interconnected throughout the electric grid, both from within the distribution system and directly to the high-voltage transmission system. Most important for our purposes, many of these new resources are connected to the power system through power electronic inverters. Collectively, we refer to these sources as inverter-based resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Capacity Markets for Transactive Energy Systems

Capacity markets provide important incentives for resource adequacy in electricity markets and may become more important for providing sufficient revenue and generation capacity with changes to energy market prices driven by increasing levels of zero marginal cost resources. However, current capacity market designs also have important shortfalls that may limit the benefits they can provide to the future grid. Current capacity markets are primarily designed for participation from conventional thermal generators, but markets are evolving with increasing levels of variable renewable energy resources. However, further reforms may be necessary to enable more participation from DERs and demand-side resources. To understand the benefits and shortfalls of current capacity market design, we review the historical reasons electricity markets have needed capacity markets or capacity payments for resource adequacy, and how current capacity market designs may create challenges for incorporating increasing levels of DERs and demand-side resources. We then consider how transactive systems, which allow the coordination of bids and offers for DERs and demand-side resources through a market interaction approach, administered by a Distribution System Operator (DSO), can address traditional resource adequacy problems due to inelastic consumer demand. We also consider the need for a DSO-level capacity market in helping to meet resource adequacy, reliability, and other electricity market objectives. We find that because the missing money in electricity markets is largely driven by incentives to meet resource adequacy goals, and the bulk grid would always supply power to the DSO, that resource adequacy is unlikely to be a determining factor in the need for a DSO-level capacity market. Many current reliability problems could also be addressed by the incorporation of more flexible demand enabled with transactive energy systems. However, other DSO objectives, including resilience, reactive power, voltage control, environmental policies, and energy equity could lead to specific challenges that could be aided by a DSO-level capacity market. We consider the possibility of a DSO-level capacity market in addressing these challenges as well as its potential role in coordinating with the Independent System Operator (ISO) who operates the wholesale market. We conclude with suggestions for future research, including the need to develop analytical models of DSO-level capacity market designs to address these potential objectives and examine their implications for DSOs and consumers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resilience in an Evolving Electrical Grid

Fundamental shifts in the structure and generation profile of electrical grids are occurring amidst increased demand for resilience. These two simultaneous trends create the need for new planning and operational practices for modern grids that account for the compounding uncertainties inherent in both resilience assessment and increasing contribution of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources. This work reviews the research work addressing the changing generation profile, state-of-the-art practices to address resilience, and research works at the intersection of these two topics in regards to electrical grids. The contribution of this work is to highlight the ongoing research in power system resilience and integration of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources in electrical grids, and to identify areas of current and further study at this intersection. Areas of research identified at this intersection include cyber-physical analysis of solar, wind, and distributed energy resources, microgrids, network evolution and observability, substation automation and self-healing, and probabilistic planning and operation methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Framework for Evaluating the Resilience Contribution of Solar PV and Battery Storage on the Grid

Motivated by decreased cost and climate change concerns, penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage has been continually increasing. The variability in solar generation assets has led to many challenges for utilities and researchers. Therefore, there is increasing interest in the area of resilience of the grid and contribution from its assets. This paper describes a proposed framework for evaluating the resilience contribution of solar generation and battery storage. The metric provides a quantifiable adaptive capacity measure with uncertainty for the contribution assets proved to the bulk grid. A case study using long and short-term solar generation, with and without battery storage, demonstrates the framework and provides useful insight to the resilience solar and battery storage assets contribute.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

Electrical Validation Testing for ORPC MHK Generator, Modification 6: ORPC SBV for MHK Generator System (CRADA Final Report)

For the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) 2016 Small Business Voucher for Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) System, Second Round 2016, ORPC intends to work with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to perform dynamometer testing of the MHK generator systems and its associated controls and inverters. ORPC will provide the generator, variable frequency drives (VFD), controls, and inverter for this testing. NREL will utilize the NREL Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) and dynamometer facilities at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) for this work. Modification 6: Additionally, NREL will conduct a feasibility study for implementing passive DC rectification at the turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗