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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Identifications and classifications of human locomotion using Rayleigh-enhanced distributed fiber acoustic sensors with deep neural networks

Abstract This paper reports on the use of machine learning to delineate data harnessed by fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensors (DAS) using fiber with enhanced Rayleigh backscattering to recognize vibration events induced by human locomotion. The DAS used in this work is based on homodyne phase-sensitive optical time-domain reflectometry (φ-OTDR). The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the DAS was enhanced using femtosecond laser-induced artificial Rayleigh scattering centers in single-mode fiber cores. Both supervised and unsupervised machine-learning algorithms were explored to identify people and specific events that produce acoustic signals. Using convolutional deep neural networks, the supervised machine learning scheme achieved over 76.25% accuracy in recognizing human identities. Conversely, the unsupervised machine learning scheme achieved over 77.65% accuracy in recognizing events and human identities through acoustic signals. Through integrated efforts on both sensor device innovation and machine learning data analytics, this paper shows that the DAS technique can be an effective security technology to detect and to identify highly similar acoustic events with high spatial resolution and high accuracies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of chemometric models to classify solid-state U materials by micro-Raman spectroscopy

Discerning uranium (U) particles found in environmental sampling is of interest for monitoring the peaceful use of nuclear material. In this study, a soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) library was successfully developed for the classification of a four-class system consisting of α-U 3 O 8 , UO 2 , UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 ·6H 2 O (UNH), and UO 2 O 2 ·4H 2 O (studtite) by Raman spectroscopy in the presence of matrix particulates and additional outliers. Spectral variability between numerous particles of each type revealed appreciable differences as a function of particle size with respect to hydration state and potential oxide phase within each class. Interclass variability was accounted for using both unsupervised and supervised chemometric models. The supervised SIMCA model displayed reasonable sensitivity for each U class and a high degree of specificity by returning whether a spectrum belonged to one class or not. This work demonstrates how Raman spectral features and chemometrics can be used to distinguish U materials from one another and from matrix materials such as flint clay. Combining the outlined chemometric approach with Raman mapping sequences could provide a rapid, nondestructive technique to characterize the chemical composition of a diverse collection of U compounds amid background samples for environmental sampling, nuclear forensics, and industrial applications.

Actinide↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Video Summarization Using Deep Action Recognition Features and Robust Principal Components Analysis

In an instance where desired pre-defined actions, behaviors, or other categories are known a priori, various video classification and recognition models can be trained to discover those classifications and their location within the video. Absent that information, one might still be tasked with identifying interesting portions within a video, a process which—if done manually—is onerous and time-consuming as it requires manual inspection of the video itself. Recognizing high-level interesting segments within a whole video has been a general area of interest due to the ubiquity of video data. However the size of the data makes storage, retrieval, and inspection of large collections of videos cumbersome. This problem motivates the task of generating shortened clips highlighting the primary content of a video, relieving the burden of having to watch the entire video. This paper presents an unsupervised method of creating shortened clips of videos, enabling the rapid review of the most interesting content within a video. Our method uses features extracted from pre-trained action recognition models as input to online moving window robust principal component analysis to generate summaries. The procedure is tested on a publicly available video summarization dataset and demonstrates comparable performance to state-of-the-art in an un-augmented setting while requiring no training.

Claborne, Daniel M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Graph theory inspired anomaly detection at the LHC

Designing model-independent anomaly detection algorithms for analyzing LHC data remains a central challenge in the search for new physics, due to the high dimensionality of collider events. In this work, we develop a graph autoencoder as an unsupervised, model-agnostic tool for anomaly detection, using the LHC Olympics dataset as a benchmark. By representing jet constituents as a graph, we introduce a method to systematically control the information available to the model through sparse graph constructions that serve as physically motivated inductive biases. Specifically, (1) we construct graph autoencoders based on locally rigid Laman graphs and globally rigid unique graphs, and (2) we explore the clustering of jet constituents into subjets to interpolate between high- and low-level input representations. We obtain the best performance, measured in terms of the Significance Improvement Characteristic curve for an intermediate level of subjet clustering and certain sparse unique graph constructions. We further investigate the role of graph connectivity in jet classification tasks. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging graph-theoretic insights to refine and increase the interpretability of machine learning tools for collider experiments.

Automation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gradient-Based Novelty Detection Boosted by Self-Supervised Binary Classification

Novelty detection aims to automatically identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data, without any prior knowledge of them. It is a critical step in data monitoring, behavior analysis and other applications, helping enable continual learning in the field. Conventional methods of OOD detection perform multi-variate analysis on an ensemble of data or features, and usually resort to the supervision with OOD data to improve the accuracy. In reality, such supervision is impractical as one cannot anticipate the anomalous data. In this paper, we propose a novel, self-supervised approach that does not rely on any pre-defined OOD data: (1) The new method evaluates the Mahalanobis distance of the gradients between the in-distribution and OOD data. (2) It is assisted by a self-supervised binary classifier to guide the label selection to generate the gradients, and maximize the Mahalanobis distance. In the evaluation with multiple datasets, such as CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, SVHN and TinyImageNet, the proposed approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art supervised and unsupervised methods in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) metrics. We further demonstrate that this detector is able to accurately learn one OOD class in continual learning.

Sun, Jingbo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Correlation of Electron Micrographs and ToF-SIMS for the Analysis of Organic Biomarkers in Mudstone

The spatial distribution of organics in geological samples can be used to determine when and how these organics were incorporated into the host rock. Mass spectrometry (MS) imaging can rapidly collect a large amount of data, but ions produced are mixed without discrimination, resulting in complex mass spectra that can be difficult to interpret. Here, we apply unsupervised and supervised machine learning (ML) to help interpret spectra from time-of-flight-secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) of an organic-carbon-rich mudstone of the Middle Jurassic of England (UK). It was previously shown that the presence of sterane molecular biomarkers in this sample can be detected via ToF-SIMS (Pasterski, M. J. et al., Astrobiology 2023, 23, 936). We use unsupervised ML on scanning electron microscopy–electron dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) measurements to define compositional categories based on differences in elemental abundances. We then test the ability of four ML algorithms─k-nearest neighbors (KNN), recursive partitioning and regressive trees (RPART), eXtreme gradient boost (XGBoost), and random forest (RF)─to classify the ToF-SIM spectra using (1) the categories assigned via SEM-EDS, (2) organic and inorganic labels assigned via SEM-EDS, and (3) the presence or absence of detectable steranes in ToF-SIMS spectra. In terms of predictive accuracy and balanced accuracy, KNN was the best performing model and RPART the worst. The feature importance, or the specific features of the ToF-SIM spectra used by the models to make classifications, cannot be determined for KNN, preventing posthoc model interpretation. Nevertheless, the feature importance extracted from the other models was useful for interpreting spectra. In conclusion, we determined that some of the organic ions used to classify biomarker containing spectra may be fragment ions derived from kerogen which is abundant in this mudstone sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transfer Learning using Denoising Auto-Encoders for Cellular-Level Annotation of Tumor in Pathology Slides

Adversarial examples can produce altered classifications using only seemingly innocuous, imperceptible perturbations to the original image. The imperceptibility of adversarial perturbations suggests that the corresponding classifiers use decision criteria different than those of a human. In a medical setting, inexplicable decision criteria confound a pathologist’s willingness to trust machine-generated annotations. Here, we analyze denoising tumor detection models to see if they are robust to imperceptible adversarial perturbations. Moreover, to be more fully trusted by pathologists, we require tumor detectors that generate interpretable annotations which segment pathology slides into tumorous and normal regions at the cellular level. We therefore compare transfer learning based on two different autoencoder architectures, one derived from a deep denoising bottleneck autoencoder and one from an over-complete sparse autoencoder. Both autoencoders were first trained in an unsupervised manner on a set of pathology slides drawn from the Camelyon16 dataset. The latent representations produced by each autoencoder were then passed to separate neural networks that were trained in a supervised manner on binary tumor-normal masks generated by pathologists at cellular resolution. Both tumor detectors supported better than 90% AUC PR as measured by the area under the precision/recall curve on a held-out pathology slide. To assess the underlying decision criteria used by both tumor detectors, we constructed imperceptible adversarial examples which reduced the AUC PR of both models to less than 70%. Random noise of the same amplitude had almost no effect on the AUC PR of either model. Additionally, each tumor detector was resistant to adversarial “transfer” attacks targeting the other. The adversarial perturbations showed strong characteristic differences: the deep denoising models perturbations were a very diffuse, seemingly unrecognizable pattern while the sparse coding models perturbations showed traces of tissue cells.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

DNABERT-S: pioneering species differentiation with species-aware DNA embeddings

SUMMARY: We introduce DNABERT-S, a tailored genome model that develops species-aware embeddings to naturally cluster and segregate DNA sequences of different species in the embedding space. Differentiating species from genomic sequences (i.e. DNA and RNA) is vital yet challenging, since many real-world species remain uncharacterized, lacking known genomes for reference. Embedding-based methods are therefore used to differentiate species in an unsupervised manner. DNABERT-S builds upon a pre-trained genome foundation model named DNABERT-2. To encourage effective embeddings to error-prone long-read DNA sequences, we introduce Manifold Instance Mixup (MI-Mix), a contrastive objective that mixes the hidden representations of DNA sequences at randomly selected layers and trains the model to recognize and differentiate these mixed proportions at the output layer. We further enhance it with the proposed Curriculum Contrastive Learning (C2LR) strategy. Empirical results on 28 diverse datasets show DNABERT-S's effectiveness, especially in realistic label-scarce scenarios. For example, it identifies twice more species from a mixture of unlabeled genomic sequences, doubles the Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) in species clustering, and outperforms the top baseline's performance in 10-shot species classification with just a 2-shot training. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Model, codes, and data are publically available at https://github.com/MAGICS-LAB/DNABERT_S.

Zhou, Zhihan↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Computational Theory for the Emergence of Grammatical Categories in Cortical Dynamics

A general agreement in psycholinguistics claims that syntax and meaning are unified precisely and very quickly during online sentence processing. Although several theories have advanced arguments regarding the neurocomputational bases of this phenomenon, we argue that these theories could potentially benefit by including neurophysiological data concerning cortical dynamics constraints in brain tissue. In addition, some theories promote the integration of complex optimization methods in neural tissue. In this paper we attempt to fill these gaps introducing a computational model inspired in the dynamics of cortical tissue. In our modeling approach, proximal afferent dendrites produce stochastic cellular activations, while distal dendritic branches–on the other hand–contribute independently to somatic depolarization by means of dendritic spikes, and finally, prediction failures produce massive firing events preventing formation of sparse distributed representations. The model presented in this paper combines semantic and coarse-grained syntactic constraints for each word in a sentence context until grammatically related word function discrimination emerges spontaneously by the sole correlation of lexical information from different sources without applying complex optimization methods. By means of support vector machine techniques, we show that the sparse activation features returned by our approach are well suited—bootstrapping from the features returned by Word Embedding mechanisms—to accomplish grammatical function classification of individual words in a sentence. In this way we develop a biologically guided computational explanation for linguistically relevant unification processes in cortex which connects psycholinguistics to neurobiological accounts of language. We also claim that the computational hypotheses established in this research could foster future work on biologically-inspired learning algorithms for natural language processing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated System-wide Event Detection and Classification Using Machine Learning on Synchrophasor Data

As the number of phasor measurement units (PMUs) deployed in a power system increases, and their data volume streamed to the control canter intensifies, operators are facing challenges related to the analysis of such data, which need to be observed and responded to as the measurements are displayed in the Control Room. Humans are generally unable to process such large amount of data efficiently and rapidly. There is an apparent need for automated ways to analyze the data, extract actionable information about occurrence of specific events, and characterize the events quickly and cost effectively. This paper discusses the use of machine learning (ML) to facilitate such tasks by providing automated, highly computationally efficient, and cost-effective ways of extracting actionable information from synchrophasor big data in real-time. We developed Big Data Smart (BDSmart) ML-based prototype tool for the Control Room use that automatically analyses data properties from synchrophasor system measurements taken across the three grid Interconnections in the USA (Western, Eastern and ERCOT). The data collected from several hundreds of PMUs located across the Interconnections over a period of two years have been made available for our extensive study. As a result, we were able to identify a number of big data properties that influence how ML methodology is applied to select, develop, train and test the data models that can eventually be used for the tool implementation. The resulting set of candidate algorithms spans unsupervised, supervised, semi-supervised and transfer-learning approaches. Many ML techniques, such as decision trees, multinomial logistic regression, feed-forward neural networks, K-nearest neighbor, multiclass support vector machine, and single and multi-channel convolutional neural networks, are implemented, and their performance is examined. We offer the results from testing the data models. The novelty of our study is in the approaches for bad data detection and mitigation, selection of a simplified feature for event detection, and data label improvements. As a result, we came up with a list of recommendations for the utilities on how to improve the PMU recording practices to cater to the future ML applications aimed at automating the analysis of synchrophasor data.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, System-wide Even↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Dynamic-to-Static Correction Factor from Petrophysical Data and Chemostratigraphy using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Estimating static mechanical properties of stratigraphic layers is critical for optimizing subsurface engineering applications. To estimate dynamic-to-static correction factor F ds (static-to-dynamic Young’s modulus ratio) across the Caney shale interval in Oklahoma, USA, we integrated triaxial test measurements and petrophysical data, including well logs and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) using unsupervised machine learning (ML). We used a novel workflow that includes principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce data set dimensionality of well logs and XRF data sets—both separately and combined—creating three scenarios, and later applied inverse distance weighting (IDW) to derive F ds profiles for these scenarios. Furthermore, we applied K-means clustering on each scenario to predict depositional facies, and built a stiffness zonation profile through chemostratigraphic analysis of the terrigenous elements to validate the predicted F ds . The predicted F ds profile from each scenario using the PCA-IDW method was compared with the constant F ds approach from our previous study by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE). The combined data sets scenario yielded the lowest RMSE value of 0.113, while the RMSE values for the well logs and XRF scenarios were 0.131 and 0.129, respectively. In addition, the predicted F ds from the XRF scenario well-matched the stiffness zonation from the chemostratigraphic analysis that was built using the optimized K-means clustering of nine clusters for that scenario. These methods and findings offer a valuable tool for refining lithological classification and improving the F ds profile, potentially enhancing drilling and stimulation strategies for subsurface energy engineering applications.

clastic rock↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Inverter Failure Mechanism Estimation Using Unsupervised Machine Learning and Reliability Assessment

This article introduces a data-driven approach to assessing failure mechanisms and reliability degradation in outdoor photovoltaic (PV) string inverters. The manufacturer's stated PV inverter lifetime can vary due to the impact of operating site conditions. To address limitations in degradation estimation through accelerated testing, condition monitoring, or degradation modeling, we propose a machine learning (ML) oriented approach. Utilizing data from a 1.4 MW PV power plant operational since 2016, with 46 string PV inverters tied to the grid, we employ the unsupervised one-class support vector machine ML technique to analyze inverter and sensor data, capable of classifying humidity cycling and temperature fluctuations as dominant failure mechanisms. Utilizing the anomaly alert relationship and alert details specific to the inverter, the level of PV inverter output is considered as its availability or available reliability. Subsequently, a continuous Markov model is applied to six-month alert data, revealing an average stated reliability of 20% after 20 years of continuous operation. These results support recommendations for time-bound preventive measures to enhance PV inverter reliability under diverse outdoor conditions. Furthermore, the approach provides a nondestructive, top–down, and generalized method for analyzing any commercial PV inverter exposed to outdoor conditions, contingent on the availability of relevant data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components (Final Technical Report)

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study. In another approach, we investigate Thermal Tomography (TT), which is a computational method for reconstruction of depth profile of internal material defects from PIT nondestructive evaluation (NDE). TT algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of thermal effusivity, which has been shown to provide visualization of subsurface internals defects in metals. In many applications, one needs to determine the defect shape and orientation from reconstructed effusivity images. Interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring, which increases with depth due to heat diffusion-based nature of image formation. We have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation of subsurface material defects in TT images. CNN was trained with TT images produced with computer simulations of 2D metallic structures (thin plates) containing elliptical subsurface voids. Performance of CNN was investigated using test TT images developed with computer simulations of plates containing elliptical defects, and defects with shape imported from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. CNN demonstrated the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of elliptical defects in previously unseen test TT images. We have also demonstrated that CNN trained on TT images of elliptical defects is capable of classifying shape and orientation of irregular defects. Training the CNN on irregular defect shapes instead of on elliptical shapes would make the resulting classifications more descriptive of actual defect shapes. However, this requires a much higher volume of SEM images of material defects, which are difficult to obtain because of random occurrence of defects in LPBF. To address this challenge, we developed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to augment the existing dataset of SEM defect images. The GAN model is demonstrated to create novel yet realistic defect shapes that can be used as input for simulated PTT images to train CNN. We also investigate several approaches based on Gaussian Random Circle and Bezier Curves for constructing parametric models of irregular-shape defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

“Thought I’d Share First” and Other Conspiracy Theory Tweets from the COVID-19 Infodemic: Exploratory Study

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has left many people isolated within their homes; these people are turning to social media for news and social connection, which leaves them vulnerable to believing and sharing misinformation. Health-related misinformation threatens adherence to public health messaging, and monitoring its spread on social media is critical to understanding the evolution of ideas that have potentially negative public health impacts. Objective: The aim of this study is to use Twitter data to explore methods to characterize and classify four COVID-19 conspiracy theories and to provide context for each of these conspiracy theories through the first 5 months of the pandemic. Methods: We began with a corpus of COVID-19 tweets (approximately 120 million) spanning late January to early May 2020. We first filtered tweets using regular expressions (n=1.8 million) and used random forest classification models to identify tweets related to four conspiracy theories. Our classified data sets were then used in downstream sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modeling to characterize the linguistic features of COVID-19 conspiracy theories as they evolve over time. Results: Analysis using model-labeled data was beneficial for increasing the proportion of data matching misinformation indicators. Random forest classifier metrics varied across the four conspiracy theories considered (F1 scores between 0.347 and 0.857); this performance increased as the given conspiracy theory was more narrowly defined. We showed that misinformation tweets demonstrate more negative sentiment when compared to non-misinformation tweets and that theories evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated conspiracy theories as well as real-world events. Conclusions: Although we focus here on health-related misinformation, this combination of approaches is not specific to public health and is valuable for characterizing misinformation in general, which is an important first step in creating targeted messaging to counteract its spread. Initial messaging should aim to preempt generalized misinformation before it becomes widespread, while later messaging will

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