The effects of Cu-substitution and high-pressure synthesis on phase transitions in Ni[subscript 2]Mn
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Chen, Jing-Han↗
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Results for “ultimate pressure”
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Management of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident Corium and Severely Damaged Fuel Debris (Rev. 2)
The Three Mile Island, Unit Two (TMI-2) pressurized water reactor core underwent a significant meltdown in 1979 due to an untimely combination of maintenance problems that led to a loss of feedwater, followed by a series of operational misunderstandings and errors. Primary coolant discharging through a malfunctioning valve represented what was analyzed as a “small-break” loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) and ultimately became a full core meltdown. The melted core recovery process required the development of a wide array of tools. After approximately three years of water management and other cleanup actions, the first views of the core revealed a much higher degree of damage than previously expected. Approximately 62 metric tons of the core had melted, leaving only 42 of the 177 fuel assemblies standing with fuel rods intact. The core to be recovered was composed of loose, gravel-like and granular particulate material and a central solidified mass of formerly molten fuel. Molten fuel had also penetrated some of the pressure vessel internals and resolidified below the main core support structure. Robotic tools that had been designed for the task were of limited effectiveness due to the range of material types and phases.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Management of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident Corium and Severely Damaged Fuel Debris (Rev. 2)
The Three Mile Island, Unit Two (TMI-2) pressurized water reactor core underwent a significant meltdown in 1979 due to an untimely combination of maintenance problems that led to a loss of feedwater, followed by a series of operational misunderstandings and errors. Primary coolant discharging through a malfunctioning valve represented what was analyzed as a “small-break” loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) and ultimately became a full core meltdown. The melted core recovery process required the development of a wide array of tools. After approximately three years of water management and other cleanup actions, the first views of the core revealed a much higher degree of damage than previously expected. Approximately 62 metric tons of the core had melted, leaving only 42 of the 177 fuel assemblies standing with fuel rods intact. The core to be recovered was composed of loose, gravel-like and granular particulate material and a central solidified mass of formerly molten fuel. Molten fuel had also penetrated some of the pressure vessel internals and resolidified below the main core support structure. Robotic tools that had been designed for the task were of limited effectiveness due to the range of material types and phases.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Development of Carbon Molecular Sieves Hollow Fiber Membranes based on Polybenzimidazole Doped with Polyprotic Acids with Superior H 2 /CO 2 Separation Properties (Final Report)
The goal of this project was to develop a highly efficient membrane-based process to capture CO 2 from coal-derived syngas with 95% CO 2 purity, achieving the cost of electricity (COE) 30% below the baseline capture approaches (i.e., Selexol process) when coupled with the advancement in other areas of the power generation facility. Our core approach is based on high-permeance hollow fiber membranes (HFMs) with superior H 2 /CO 2 separation properties at the syngas process conditions, which can then be further utilized to design membrane reactors for process intensification of H 2 production and purification and CO 2 capture. Three organizations with complementary skills collaborated to achieve the goal, including the University at Buffalo (UB), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Trimeric Corporation (Trimeric). We formulated logical steps to bring the membrane technology from Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 3 (Experimental proof of concept) to TRL 4 (Laboratory scale validation in relevant environment). During the budget period (BP) 1, we screened various polymeric materials and identified polybenzimidazole doped with inorganic polyprotic acids as the desirable platform. The acid doping increases the H 2 /CO 2 selectivity, and the sequential carbonization increases H 2 permeability while retaining the high selectivity. By manipulating the acid type and doping level and the carbonization temperature, we demonstrated advanced carbon molecular sieving (CMS) materials with H 2 permeability of above 200 Barrer (1 Barrer = 10 -10 cm 3 (STP) cm cm -2 s -2 cmHg -1 ) and H 2 /CO 2 selectivity of above 40 at 200-300°C with simulated syngas containing CO and water vapor. For example, the PBI-(H 3 PO 4 ) 0.11 carbonized at 700 °C exhibits H 2 permeability of 200 Barrer and H 2 /CO 2 selectivity of 60 at 200 °C, and H 2 permeability of 240 Barrer and H 2 /CO 2 selectivity of 54 at 225 °C, which meets the targeted properties and surpasses Robeson’s upper bound. During the BP2, we focused on the conversion of the advanced CMS materials to stable HFMs. Membranes with H 2 permeance of 1,090 GPU (1 GPU = 10 -6 cm 3 (STP) cm -2 s -2 cmHg -1 ) and H 2 /CO 2 selectivity of 57 at 300 °C were successfully fabricated. The effects of temperature, gas compositions, pressure, and time on the separation properties were systematically investigated. Pencil modules were continuously evaluated for 219 h (dry pure gas) and 669 h (dry simulated syngas) and showed initial decline in permeance and increased H 2 /CO 2 selectivity over time, ultimately achieving a steady state stable value, indicating that the ageing phenomena in the nanoporous structures of the membranes during the test. Membrane reactors were fabricated based on the CMS membranes and evaluated for water-gas shift (WGS) reaction. The use of membranes slightly improves the conversion of the CO. However, parametric tests of the membrane reactors at various temperatures and flow rates need to be conducted, as well as the membranes with improved separation performance. We performed a sensitivity analysis on the impact of H 2 /CO 2 selectivity on the COE based on a hybrid process of a membrane unit and cryogenic unit developed by Membrane Technology and Research, Inc. (MTR). Three H 2 /CO 2 selectivity (40, 60, and 15) cases were developed and compared with the baseline capture process (Case B5B) provided by the DOE report. Increasing the membrane H 2 /CO 2 selectivity reduces COE, but the rate of the decrease of COE also diminishes. The COE values for H 2 /CO 2 selectivities of 40 and 60 were nearly the same. As the H 2 /CO 2 selectivity increases, the inert recycling decreases, leading to smaller equipment, less auxiliary power requirements, and less heating, cooling, and refrigeration duty. The refrigeration system used to liquefy the CO 2 is the most expensive piece of equipment and consumes the most electricity within the CO 2 capture process. Increasing the CO 2 concentration in the recycle stream would improve the economics of the process by reducing the refrigeration duty requirement of the unit and also allow for higher liquefaction temperatures. The high H 2 -selective membrane developed by our team may be applicable in other separation processes where lower pressure H 2 retains value. Typically, hydrogen retains its pressure when it is separated from syngas components. Residual components may be used as low-quality fuel and then vented to the atmosphere. Applications might include control of H 2 /CO ratios or mitigation of the water gas shift reaction by CO 2 recycling to the feed of a gasifier or steam methane reformer. To summarize, we have developed industrial HFMs with the best H 2 /CO 2 separation performance reported in the literature. The membranes demonstrate stability with simulated syngas and show great potential for membrane reactors for WGS reactions, lowering the cost of blue H 2 production.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Rippled shock propagation in a laser-driven target at multimegabar pressures
The evolution of non-uniform shocks produced by modulated laser irradiation or surface perturbations is relevant to studies of inertial confinement fusion and material properties at high-energy-density conditions. We present results from an experiment conducted at the OMEGA EP laser facility, where a 300 GPa shock was driven into a fused silica sample with pre-fabricated single-mode surface modulations. Using time-resolved optical velocimetry, we captured the continuous evolution of rippled shock motion, enabling a comprehensive mapping of the spatial amplitude history from formation to phase reversal in a single experiment. Initially, the ablation-driven shock inherits a fraction of the surface modulation amplitude from the sample, which subsequently grows before decaying, ultimately leading to the flattening of the rippled shock and a phase reversal. We find that two-dimensional inviscid hydrodynamic simulation of the experiment is able to qualitatively capture many aspects of the rippled shock evolution but over-predicts the initial amplitude growth. This experimental platform, capable of accommodating varying ripple wavelengths, lays the groundwork for a potential viscometry method at extreme pressures, where viscous effects manifest as differences in shock flattening times between rippled shocks of two distinct wavelengths propagating through the sample.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
When does turbulence spreading matter?
Few, if any, of the many papers on turbulence spreading address the key question of how turbulence spreading actually affects the profile structure. In this work, we are using a reduced model to answer that question. Turbulence spreading is most relevant near regions where the profiles support a strong intensity gradient ∇I. One such case is at the edge of an L mode ischarge, near a source of turbulence [i.e., either a localized source of edge turbulence or an influx of turbulence from the scrape-off layer (SOL)]. Another is in “No Man’s Land” (NML), which connects the pedestal to the stiff core in H mode. In the case of L mode, without an edge intensity source, the turbulence intensity profile is nearly flat and spreading has a weak effect. An edge localized source increases the edge ∇I, which then drives inward spreading. Invasion of turbulence from the SOL to the edge softens the edge pressure gradient. In H mode, the strong shear suppression of pedestal turbulence necessarily forces a sharp ∇I in NML. This sharp∇I drives a significant flux of turbulence from the core to the pedestal, where it is ultimately dissipated by shearing. Counter-intuitively, the results indicate that spreading actually increases the pedestal height and width and hence the energy content in H mode. This suggests that models of the pedestal structure should include NML turbulence spreading effects. The relation of avalanches to spreading is studied. Spreading weakly affects the avalanche distribution, but the spatiotemporal correlation of intensity increases with spreading.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat
Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
An Explainable Machine-Learning Model for Compensatory Reserve Measurement: Methods for Feature Selection and the Effects of Subject Variability
Tracking vital signs accurately is critical for triaging a patient and ensuring timely therapeutic intervention. The patient’s status is often clouded by compensatory mechanisms that can mask injury severity. The compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) is a triaging tool derived from an arterial waveform that has been shown to allow for earlier detection of hemorrhagic shock. However, the deep-learning artificial neural networks developed for its estimation do not explain how specific arterial waveform elements lead to predicting CRM due to the large number of parameters needed to tune these models. Alternatively, we investigate how classical machine-learning models driven by specific features extracted from the arterial waveform can be used to estimate CRM. More than 50 features were extracted from human arterial blood pressure data sets collected during simulated hypovolemic shock resulting from exposure to progressive levels of lower body negative pressure. A bagged decision tree design using the ten most significant features was selected as optimal for CRM estimation. This resulted in an average root mean squared error in all test data of 0.171, similar to the error for a deep-learning CRM algorithm at 0.159. By separating the dataset into sub-groups based on the severity of simulated hypovolemic shock withstood, large subject variability was observed, and the key features identified for these sub-groups differed. This methodology could allow for the identification of unique features and machine-learning models to differentiate individuals with good compensatory mechanisms against hypovolemia from those that might be poor compensators, leading to improved triage of trauma patients and ultimately enhancing military and emergency medicine.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Hydrogen embrittlement of Zircaloy-4 fabricated by ultrasonic additive manufacturing
Ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) was successfully applied to the zirconium material system to create a planar geometry. Following fabrication, SS-J3 type tensile specimens of the UAM and wrought Zircaloy-4 with a nominal gage section of 5×1.2×0.75 mm were machined for hydriding studies and mechanical testing. The SS-J3 type tensile specimens were gas-charged with hydrogen using a custom system that precisely controls hydrogen gas flow rate, hydrogen partial pressure, and temperature. To avoid altering the UAM material, the maximum process temperature was limited to 550°C. Using different initial hydrogen gas pressures and flow rates, various hydrogen contents (70–1755 wppm) were achieved for Zircaloy-4 specimens. Tensile testing shows that, regardless of hydrogen content, all UAM specimens measured yield strengths in the range of 557±16 MPa and ultimate tensile strengths of 660±4MPa. However, total elongation clearly decreased as a function of increasing hydrogen content. Further, at the lowest hydrogen content, the total plastic elongation measured 21.5%, and this value decreased to less than 2% when the hydrogen content was increased to 1000 wppm. Cross-sectional optical microscopy images revealed that the hydride distributions are randomly oriented. For the low hydrogen content specimen, these randomly distributed hydrides are isolated from each other. A sandwiched structure, consisting of high-density and low-density layers, was also observed for the specimens with hydrogen content between 200 and 400 wppm. As the hydrogen content increases, the hydrides diffuse into the low-density hydride layers to form a network across the whole specimen. Although the tensile properties of UAM and wrought Zircaloy-4 exhibit the same behavior with increasing hydrogen content, the distinctions in grain orientations led to differences in the hydride orientations at low and intermediate hydrogen concentrations.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Computationally Accelerated Discovery of High Entropy Pyrochlore Oxides
High entropy ceramics provide enhanced flexibility for tailoring a wide range of physical properties, emerging from the diverse chemical and configurational degrees of freedom. Expanding upon the endeavors of recently synthesized high entropy ceramics in rock salt, fluorite, spinel, and perovskite structures, we explore the relative feasibility of formation of high entropy pyrochlore oxides, A 2 B 2 O 7 , with multication occupancy of the B-site, estimated from first-principles-based thermodynamic descriptors. Subsequently, we used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the phase composition, oxygen vacancy concentration, and local ionic segregation as a function of temperature and oxygen partial pressure. In synergy with the theoretical calculations, we have investigated the synthesis of several multicomponent oxides with a pyrochlore composition, related to our computational investigations, resulting in four phase pure and one 97.4% pure high entropy pyrochlore oxides. Ultimately, our approach allows us to evaluate potential impurity phases, ionic disorder, and oxygen vacancy concentration in response to the experimental variables, thereby making realistic predictions that can direct and accelerate experimental synthesis of novel multicomponent ceramics.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
First-principles theory for cerium predicts three distinct face-centered cubic phases
We show results from first-principles calculations for cerium at very high compressions. These reveal a most remarkable behavior in a material; depending on atomic volume, cerium adopts three distinct face-centered cubic (fcc) phases driven by different physical mechanisms. The two well-known a and phases are vigorously debated in the literature, but we focus on the a phase as a metal with delocalized character of the 4f electron. The ultimate high compression fcc phase, here named ω, is driven partly by electrostatics. Our density-functional theory (DFT) study excellently reproduces the experimentally known compression behavior of cerium up to a few Mbar but goes beyond those pressures with structural transitions to tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic (fcc) phases occurring before 100 Mbar (10000 GPa or 10 TPa). The 4f-electron contribution to the chemical bonding is shown to rule phase transitions and compressibility. The change of 4f occupation nicely explains the pressure dependence of the structural axial ratio in the tetragonal phase. At very high pressure, structures known at low pressures return because of band broadening, electrostatic ion repulsion, and an increase in hybridization between states that under normal conditions can be considered core (atomic like) states and the valence-band states.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Optimize the Autonomous Sensor Fish Device for Understanding Interactions of Aquatic Animals with Marine and Hydrokinetic and Hydro Systems (CRADA 476) Final Report
This project at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) enhances our understanding of how aquatic life interacts with marine renewable energy (MRE) and hydropower systems through the development and testing of advanced sensor technology. The Marine Sensor Fish (MSF) and its smaller variants, the Sensor Fish Mini (SF Mini) and Flexible Sensor Fish (FSF), measure critical environmental stressors, such as shear forces, pressure changes, and strike impacts, that are essential for assessing the risks posed by energy devices, including tidal turbines, hydropower installations, and other MRE infrastructure. Rigorous field testing has shown that these tools are effective in capturing detailed data on turbulence, pressure variations, strike impacts, and other stressors near these devices, providing valuable insights into the conditions faced by aquatic species. Economically, these tools offer renewable energy developers a practical solution for streamlining environmental assessments and ensuring regulatory compliance, ultimately reducing costs associated with evaluating and mitigating ecological impacts. This research also benefits the public by promoting the growth of renewable energy sources that protect aquatic ecosystems, advancing both sustainable energy production and environmental stewardship.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Swelling and permeability effects during propellant cookoff
Large rocket motors may violently explode when exposed to accidental fires. Even hot metal fragments from a nearby accident may penetrate the propellant and ultimately cause thermal ignition. A mechanistic understanding of heated propellants leading to thermal runaway is a major unsolved problem. Here we show that thermal ignition in propellants can be predicted using a universal cookoff model coupled to a micromechanics pressurization model. Our model predicts the time to thermal ignition in cookoff experiments with variable headspace volumes. Furthermore, we found that experiments with headspace volumes are more prone to deformation which distorts pores and causes increased permeability when the propellant expands into this headspace. Delayed ignition with larger headspace volume correlates with lower headspace pressures during decomposition. We found that our predictions matched experimental measurements best when the initial propellant was impermeable to gas flow rather than being permeable. Similar behavior is expected with other energetic materials with rubbery binders. Our model is validated using data from a separate laboratory. We also present an uncertainty analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of thermal ignition caused by a steel fragment embedded in the propellant.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
The Effect of Hydrothermal Alteration and Microcracks on Hydraulic Properties and Poroelastic Deformation: A Case Study of the Blue Mountain Geothermal Field
Abstract Geothermal energy plays a vital role in decarbonizing electricity and heat supply. Effective utilization of geothermal resources hinges on identifying or generating permeable reservoir zones and understanding how effective pressure variations affect fluid circulation and reservoir properties by poroelastic deformation. Hydrothermal alteration can modify the petrophysical properties of geothermal reservoir rocks, which may increase or decrease its productivity. Understanding these alteration effects is essential to predict and optimize long‐term sustainable geothermal operations. Here, we investigate the impact of hydrothermal alteration on poroelastic and hydraulic properties of diverse lithologies in a series of deformation tests performed at several confining (0–80 MPa) and pore pressure (10–30 MPa) levels. Experimental results of hydrothermally altered dikes and phyllites obtained from the Blue Mountain geothermal field (Nevada, USA) are compared to thermally cracked La Peyratte granite (France) and correlated with petrophysical properties, mineral composition, and microstructures. Argillic alteration of dikes increases porosity and storage capacity but lowers thermal conductivity and increases pore compressibility. Conversely, silicate precipitation in phyllites increases stiffness and thermal conductivity but also reduces porosity and permeability. Experimentally determined effective pressure coefficients range from 0.1 to 0.9, differ for permeability and volumetric strain and decrease with increasing effective pressure. The presence of compliant microcracks and crack‐like pores significantly increases the stress sensitivity of La Peyratte granite and silicified phyllites. This study demonstrates how thermal and chemical alteration impacts poromechanical and petrophysical characteristics of geothermal targets, which ultimately govern reservoir stability and subsidence, induced seismicity as well as fluid and heat extraction efficiency during geothermal operations.
Schuster, Valerian [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ G↗
Development of Self-Assembly Supports Enabling Transformational Membrane Performance for Cost-Effective Carbon Capture
This final technical report describes work conducted by Membrane Technology and Research, Inc. (MTR) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) on the development of membranes with transformational performance for carbon capture under award number DE-FE0031596. The work was performed from June 1, 2018 through May 31, 2024. For more than a decade, MTR has worked in partnership with DOE to develop an innovative membrane-based CO 2 capture process. This effort has included the first test of membrane modules with coal-fired flue gas at the Arizona Public Services (APS) Cholla plant in 2010; the accumulation of >11,000 hours of flue gas operation for Polaris modules on a bench-scale 1 tonne/day (TPD) system at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC); scale-up of first-generation (Gen-1) Polaris to a 20 TPD small pilot system, and successful operation of this system on a flue gas slipstream at NCCC and in integrated boiler testing at Babcock & Wilcox (B&W). Through continued development efforts, a second-generation (Gen-2) version of the Polaris membrane has been scaled-up to pilot production. This membrane offers 70% higher CO 2 permeance with similar selectivity to the base case Polaris. MTR also developed planar modules designed specifically for the low-pressure, high-volumetric flow rate process conditions of flue gas operation. These new modules have significantly lower pressure-drop values compared to the type originally used (spiral-wound modules), which results in significant energy savings. The goal of the work described in this report was to improve on the Polaris Gen-2 membrane with the ultimate aim to reduce the cost of carbon capture. The majority of the effort was to develop improved support membranes for the multi-layer composite structure of MTR’s Polaris membrane. Earlier work at MTR had identified the support structure as limiting membrane permeances, not because the support itself represents a permeation resistance, but because the distribution of pores at the surface of the support imposes a geometric restriction to diffusion in the layers above it. Support membranes were prepared from a range of polymers, including commercially available block copolymers and a custom synthesized block copolymer alternative. The best support membranes developed in this project reduced the geometric restriction by a factor of two to three. These supports then were used to produce Polaris composite membranes with improved permeances. The second topic was to create a high-selectivity version of the Polaris membrane. The high-selectivity version uses a novel selective polymeric material and high selectivities were confirmed in experiments at MTR. The material is not easily made into very thin films. Consequently, the permeances are significantly lower than the Polaris Gen-2 membrane. The utility of this membrane is therefore limited to the carbon dioxide purification step that produces liquid CO 2 . A Technical and Economic Analysis (TEA) was performed for a carbon capture system that uses both advanced membrane types. The TEA shows the novel advanced membranes reduce the cost of capture by 10%, from $63.32/tonne CO 2 to $56.90/tonne CO 2 (2022 USD). Most of the development work was carried out with laboratory-scale casting and coating equipment. A number, but not all, of the improvements identified have been implemented on commercial-scale manufacturing equipment. The focus of future work at MTR is to incorporate the advancements made into the Polaris membrane manufacturing process.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning
We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Long-Length SiC/SiC Tube Irradiation Experiment at LWR Temperatures Inserted into HFIR
This report describes the pre-irradiation characterization and successful assembly of a High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) irradiation experiment designed to assess radiation-induced lateral bowing of silicon carbide fiber–reinforced, silicon carbide matrix composite (SiC/SiC) components under a radial fast neutron flux gradient at representative light-water reactor (LWR) temperatures of approximately 300 °C. The over-arching goal of this work is to validate thermomechanical models of SiC/SiC composite fuel assembly distortion used to predict the extent of lateral bowing and dose at which bowing reaches a maximum value. Ultimately, these models are used to ensure that fuel assembly distortion does not block coolant channels, interfere with control rod/blade movements, and/or impact local reactivity. The experiment contains six cladding tube specimens that are approximately 558.5 mm long with representative pressurized water reactor (PWR) outer and inner diameters of 9.5 mm and 7.5 mm, respectively. The specimens were thoroughly characterized prior to irradiation using traditional dimensional inspection and surface profilometry so that these measurements can later be compared with similar measurements that will be made post-irradiation to determine radiation-induced deformations. Furthermore, fine engraving markers were inscribed along the outer surfaces of the specimen and mapped using analytic photography and a three-dimensional stage. This technique allowed for accurate measurements of the marker spacings, which can be compared with similar measurements that will be made post-irradiation to provide local radiation-induced strain mapping. A light curtain optical micrometer was also employed to measure the pre-irradiation bowing of each specimen. The experiment was successfully assembled and inserted into position VXF-19 for HFIR cycle 516, which began May 12, 2026. The experiment will be removed after cycle 519, which is currently scheduled to end in December 2026.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
In-situ observation of single-phase compositionally-complex oxide formation during high-pressure and high-temperature synthesis
Compositionally-complex oxides (CCOs) with equal or non-equal atomic ratios of multi-principal cations are single-phase solid solutions and possess unique structural characteristics and correlated possibilities for tailorable and exceptional functionalities. However, breakdown of single-phase structure and phase separation impair widespread adoption of CCOs under in-service environments. Here, in-situ phase transformation during high-pressure and high-temperature synthesis of an exemplary CCO (CeZrHf) 0.852 (YbY) 0.148 O 2-δ is for the first time clarified by using synchrotron X-ray energy dispersive diffraction. During synthesizing at ~4.5 GPa inside a large-volume press, ZrO 2 and HfO 2 gradually initiate lattice diffusion as monoclinic (022) and (220) peaks collapse and merge completely at 973 K; CeO 2 starts diffusing as the dramatic intensity change of cubic (220) peak above 1073 K, causing a metastable phase formation; single-phase solid solution ultimately forms at 1673 K. Importantly, the results revealed provide in-depth understanding of phase transformation dynamics and insights for novel design paradigm of CCOs.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗