Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “transient stability assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

105 records · Page 6

Investigation of Reduced-Order Modeling for Aircraft Stability and Control Prediction

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics tools offer the potential to approximate increments for ground-to-flight scaling effects, as well as to augment the dynamic damping derivative data for motion-based flight simulators. Unfortunately, the computational expense is currently prohibitive for populating a complete simulator database. This work investigates an existing surrogate-based, indicial response reduced-order model methodology as a means to efficiently augment a flight simulator database with high-fidelity nonlinear aerodynamic damping derivatives. Creation of the reduced-order model is based on the superposition integrals of the step response with the derivative of its corresponding input signal. Step responses are calculated using a computational grid motion approach that separates the effects of angle of attack and sideslip angle from angular rates, and rates from angle of attack and sideslip. It is demonstrated that the transients produced during the start of a forced-oscillation motion are captured by the reduced-order model to the level of fidelity of a comparable computational solution. Aerodynamic coefficients computed within minutes by the reduced-order model for an aircraft undergoing an 18-second half Lazy-8 maneuver and a 25-second Immelmann turn maneuver are compared with those from full computational flight solutions that required days to complete. Finally, a cost-benefit assessment is included that demonstrates a compelling advantage for this approach. d for maneuvering, flexible vehicles.

Frink, Neal T.↗

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling Model (MIDAS-Solar)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power system operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power systems steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for electric grid planning and operation. This will be accomplished by developing temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation models that seamlessly simulate power systems operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). Both a multi-timescale grid model and an integrated PV model will be developed in this project to accurately study the impacts of PV variability and uncertainty on system reliability at multiple timescales. Using quasi-dynamic simulation methods and data-driven security assessment (DSA) criteria will allow the dynamic characteristics of PV to be fed forward into longer-timescale scheduling models for a complete understanding of the effect of short-term PV dynamics on bulk systems operations (e.g., reserve scheduling and deployment). Upon completion of the proposed model, this project will help operators accurately assess system reliability by deploying energy and reserve scheduling under critical contingency conditions and studying interactions among all types of essential reliability services provided by modern PV power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Underexpanded Supersonic Plume Surface Interactions: Applications for Spacecraft Landings on Planetary Bodies

Numerical and experimental investigations of both far-field and near-field supersonic steady jet interactions with a flat surface at various atmospheric pressures are presented in this paper. These studies were done in assessing the landing hazards of both the NASA Mars Science Laboratory and Phoenix Mars spacecrafts. Temporal and spatial ground pressure measurements in conjunction with numerical solutions at altitudes of approx.35 nozzle exit diameters and jet expansion ratios (e) between 0.02 and 100 are used. Data from steady nitrogen jets are compared to both pulsed jets and rocket exhaust plumes at Mach approx.5. Due to engine cycling, overpressures and the plate shock dynamics are different between pulsed and steady supersonic impinging jets. In contrast to highly over-expanded (e <1) and underexpanded exhaust plumes, results show that there is a relative ground pressure load maximum for moderately underexpanded (e approx.2-5) jets which demonstrate a long collimated plume shock structure. For plumes with e much >5 (lunar atmospheric regime), the ground pressure is minimal due to the development of a highly expansive shock structure. We show this is dependent on the stability of the plate shock, the length of the supersonic core and plume decay due to shear layer instability which are all a function of the jet expansion ratio. Asymmetry and large gradients in the spatial ground pressure profile and large transient overpressures are predominantly linked to the dynamics of the plate shock. More importantly, this study shows that thruster plumes exhausting into martian environments possess the largest surface pressure loads and can occur at high spacecraft altitudes in contrast to the jet interactions at terrestrial and lunar atmospheres. Theoretical and analytical results also show that subscale supersonic cold gas jets adequately simulate the flow field and loads due to rocket plume impingement provided important scaling parameters are in agreement. These studies indicate the critical importance of testing and modeling plume-surface interactions for descent and ascent of spacecraft and launch vehicles.

Mehta, M.↗

Influence of substitution pattern on the dynamics of internal conversion and intersystem crossing in thiopyridone isomers

We report a combined experimental and theoretical investigation of the ultrafast internal conversion (IC) and intersystem crossing (ISC) dynamics of two thiopyridone (TP) isomers in solution. Our study used ultrafast transient X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) at the sulfur K-edge, in conjunction with electronic excited state surface hopping molecular dynamics and simulations of the excited state XAS, to investigate the impact of the functional group substitution pattern and solvent on the dynamics of IC and ISC. The combination of the localized X-ray probe and the simulation results enables, in part, the differentiation between ππ* and nπ* character excited states, as well as singlet and triplet states. Access to nπ* character excitations has particular value since they often prove challenging to assess with optical spectroscopy. For 2-TP, the photoexcited S 2 (ππ*) state rapidly undergoes IC to the S 1 (nπ*) state below the instrument response time, followed by ISC to the T 1 (ππ*) state on a timescale of 600 fs in acetonitrile. For 4-TP, the timescale of S 2 to S 1 IC increases to 330 fs and the timescale of ISC increases to more than 10 ps. The differences between isomers are rationalized by considering the key role of the, nπ* intermediates in mediating the intersystem crossing of these systems. Varying the substitution pattern of the molecule can stabilize or destabilize these intermediates leading to the increase in ISC rate in the ortho isomer as compared to the para isomer, while changing the solvent from acetonitrile to water had minimal effect on the electronic excited state relaxation mechanism.

Garratt, Douglas [SLAC National Accelerator Labora↗

Thermal Assessment of Swift BAT Instrument Thermal Control System in Flight

THE BAT is the primary instrument on the Swift spacecraft. The Swift mission is part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Medium-Size Explorer (MIDEX) Program, and is managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). It is designed to detect gamma ray burst over a broad region of the sky in a low Earth orbit of 600-km altitude and quickly align the telescopes on the spacecraft to the gamma ray source. It was successfully launched into orbit on November 20, 2004. The Swift mission is a first of its kind of multi-wavelength transient observatory for gamma ray burst astronomy. Its mission life is 2 years. The inclination is 22 deg maximum. The spacecraft bus voltage to the instruments is in the 24 V to 35 V range. The instruments will be turned off when the voltage is below 27 V. The BAT is mounted to the optical bench through five titanium flexures. The BAT has been developed at GSFC. Its telescope assembly consists of 256 Detector Modules (DMs) in the Detector Array. There are 16 Detector Array Blocks. Each Block holds 16 DMs, 3 Block Voltage Regulator (BVR) units and 3 Block Command & Data Handling (BCDH) units. The power dissipation of each Block has been measured to be 13 W. Therefore the total power dissipation of the 16 Blocks is 208 W. The DAP is 1.3 m (4.3 ft) x 1 m (3.3 ft), accommodates all the 16 Blocks. It also provides the mounting surface and the positional stability for the Blocks. The DMs are located at the top (+X side) of the DAP and is enclosed by graded-Z shields on the sides and a coded mask at the top. The BVRs and BCDHs are located at the bottom (-X side) of the DAP. Eight Blocks are located at the front (-Z side or radiator side) of the DAP, and eight are located at the rear (+Z side) of the DAP. The DMs and top of DAP are insulated with a 7-layer multi-layer insulation (MLI). There is a 5.08 cm (2 in) x 5.08 cm (2 in) MLI cutout over each Block heater controller so that heat radiates from the heater controller to the mask. The exterior of the mask, graded-Z shields and bottom of DAP is insulated with a 15-layer MLI.

Choi, Michael K.↗

The Sensitivity of African Easterly Waves to Eastern Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperatures

The results of two regional atmospheric model simulations are compared to assess the influence of the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum on local precipitation, transient easterly waves and the West African summer monsoon. Both model simulations were initialized with reanalysis 2 data (US National Center for Environmental Prediction and Department of Energy) on 15 May 2006 and extended through 6 October 2006, forced by synchronous reanalysis 2 lateral boundary conditions introduced four times daily. One simulation uses 2006 reanalysis 2 sea-surface temperatures, also updated four times daily, while the second simulation considers ocean forcing absent the sea-surface temperature maximum, achieved here by subtracting 3 K at every ocean grid point between 0 and 15 N during the entire simulation. The simulation with 2006 sea-surface temperature forcing produces a realistic distribution of June-September mean precipitation and realistic westward propagating swaths of maximum rainfall, based on validation against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. The simulation without the sea-surface temperature maximum produces only 57% of the control June-September total precipitation over the eastern tropical Atlantic and about 83% of the Sahel precipitation. The simulation with warmer ocean temperatures generates generally stronger circulation, which in turn enhances precipitation by increasing moisture convergence. Some local precipitation enhancement is also attributed to lower vertical thermal stability above the warm water. The study shows that the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum enhances the strength of transient easterly waves and broadens the spatial extent of associated precipitation. However, large-scale circulation and its interaction with the African continent, and not sea-surface temperatures, control the timing and trajectories of the waves.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗

Solar Array Disturbances to Spacecraft Pointing During the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Mission

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), the first spacecraft to support NASA s return to the Moon, launched on June 18, 2009 from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station aboard an Atlas V launch vehicle. It was initially inserted into a direct trans-lunar trajectory to the Moon. After a five day transit to the Moon, LRO was inserted into the Lunar orbit and successfully lowered to a low altitude elliptical polar orbit for spacecraft commissioning. Successful commissioning was completed in October 2009 when LRO was placed in its near circular mission orbit with an approximate altitude of 50km. LRO will spend at least one year orbiting the Moon, collecting lunar environment science and mapping data, utilizing a suite of seven instruments to enable future human exploration. The objective is to provide key science data necessary to facilitate human return to the Moon as well as identification of opportunities for future science missions. LRO's instrument suite will provide the high resolution imaging data with sub-meter accuracy, highly accurate lunar cartographic maps, mineralogy mapping, amongst other science data of interest. LRO employs a 3-axis stabilized attitude control system (ACS) whose primary control mode, the "Observing Mode", provides Lunar nadir, off-nadir, and inertial fine pointing for the science data collection and instrument calibration. This controller combines the capability of fine pointing with on-demand large angle full-sky attitude reorientation. It provides simplicity of spacecraft operation as well as additional flexibility for science data collection. A conventional suite of ACS components is employed in the Observing Mode to meet the pointing and control objectives. Actuation is provided by a set of four reaction wheels developed in-house at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Attitude feedback is provided by a six state Kalman filter which utilizes two SELEX Galileo Star Trackers for attitude updates, and a single Honeywell Miniature Inertial Measurement Unit (MIMU) to provide body rates for attitude propagation. Rate is computed by differentiating accumulated angle provided by the MIMU. The Observing Mode controller is required to maintain fine pointing while a large fully-articulated solar array (SA) maintains its panel normal to the solar incidence. This paper describes the disturbances to the attitude control resulting from the SA articulation. Observing Mode performance in the presence of this disturbance was assessed while the spacecraft was in an initial elliptical low altitude orbit during the commissioning phase, which started about two weeks after launch and lasted for 90 days. LRO demonstrated excellent pointing performance during Observing Mode nadir and inertial attitude target operations during this phase. Transient LRO attitude errors observed during commissioning resulted primarily from three sources, Diviner instrument calibrations, RW zero crossings, and SA articulation. Even during times of considerable disturbance from SA articulation, the attitude errors were maintained below the statistical attitude error requirement level of 15 arc-sec (3 sigma).

Calhoun, Philip↗

Computational Investigations of the Reactivity of Metalloporphyrins for Ammonia Oxidation

Density functional theory and molecular dynamics simulations were used to assess the ability of tetraphenylporphyrin (TPP)M complexes (where M = Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Mo, Ru, W, and Os) to coordinate and weaken the N-H bonds of ammonia, as well as their reactivity towards N-N bond formation for N 2 generation. Compared to other metalloporphyrins, bis-ammonia complexes (TPP)Mo(NH 3 ) 2 and (TPP)W(NH 3 ) 2 exhibit low and level N-H BDFEs due to a stabilized (TPP)M(NH 3 )(NH) intermediate by multiple metal-ligand bonding. These results resemble those previously obtained for polypyridyl metal complexes, suggesting that broad trends in reactivity towards N-H bond cleavage are more metal-dependent rather than ligand-dependent for a metal in a nitrogen pseudo-octahedral environment. We investigated N-N bond formation via NH 3 nucleophilic attack on M-NH and M-N intermediates, compared to bimolecular coupling of M-NH x intermediates. We evaluated the reactivity of (TPP)Fe(NH 3 ) 2 towards N-N bond formation via a hydrazine pathway, and found amide-amide coupling to form a bridged hydrazido complex to be the most favorable pathway for N-N bond formation. Further investigation of possible N-N bond formation pathways by reaction with NH 3 led us to identify a possible Fe III -•NH species with significant aminyl character that bypasses the nucleophilic attack of NH 3 and that promotes homolytic N-H bond cleavage of ammonia. This reaction forms a Fe-NH 2 moiety and a transient •NH 2 radical that subsequently forms an N-N bond with the Fe-NH 2 moiety to form a (TPP)Fe(NH 3 )(N 2 H 4 ) species. Furthermore, these results indicate the need to evaluate the radical character of imido species and their reactivity towards N-H bond cleavage of ammonia.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reliability and Safety Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicles

The following work was commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to guide industry and future regulation related to urban air mobility (UAM). Prior studies compared the relative safety of NASA concept vehicles, Figure ES1, designed for UAM and provided recommendations for industry research, aircraft architectural improvements, and regulatory updates. After the prior study completed, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) released regulatory guidance in the form of a special condition (SC), SC-VTOL-01, for multirotors with distributed propulsion and flight controls (DPFC). The objective of the current work was to develop DPFC architectures that will comply with SC-VTOL-01. Vehicle designs, DPFC architectures, and stability & control (S&C) models were developed to find limitations and trends to guide industry. To guide this task, NASA developed quad, hex, and an octorotor to better define vehicle attributes and trade space. Aircraft for study included electric, hybrid-electric, and turboshaft powerplants and collective and RPM control schemes. Assessments are in terms of the safety level achieved, and/or aircraft component/features needed to meet SC-VTOL-01. The most challenging criteria being the catastrophic failure rate, ≤10-9 catastrophic failures per flight hour, and that no single failures may result in a catastrophic event. A disciplined process was followed, similar to that in Aerospace Recommended Practice (ARP) 4761. A preliminary system safety assessment (PSSA) leveraged prior work as a basis of creating failure rate budgets for system design teams. System designs were updated and iterated upon, working with reliability and safety subject matter experts to develop SC-VTOL-01 compliant designs. Design changes were reflected in updated PSSAs for initial verification of compliance. The DPFC architecture was broken into four system design teams, the (1) flight control system (FCS), (2) drive and power system, (3) thermal management system (TMS), and (4) electrical power and distribution system. The FCS including elements necessary to control the aircraft, drive and power including elements necessary to generate and transmit shaft power, the TMS including elements necessary to maintain temperature limits in all operating environments, and electrical pow-er and distribution including equipment necessary to store and transmit electrical energy. Results found that all aircraft evaluated may have paths to comply with SC-VTOL-01, Figure ES2. However, S&C models showed large power transients that must be addressed and PSSA results show that future work is needed in single load path structures, high voltage power storage and distribution, and in motor/rotor overspeed protection.

Boeing↗

Performance Evaluation of a Single-Phase Grid-Forming Inverter Through Hardware Experiments

This study conducts hardware experiments to assess the performance of a commercial single-phase grid-forming (GFM) inverter using a purely hardware-based approach. We adhere to a testing protocol for the GFM inverter and enhance it by exploring the transient performance of GFM inverters across various grid dynamic events. Quantifiable performance metrics are established for each testing scenario to gain insights into the performance of the single-phase GFM inverters. Based on the comprehensive tests, the following observations are summarized: 1) The performance of the single-phase GFM inverter is satisfactory, and it is capable of being the islanding master for residence homes when the main grid is gone. 2) For frequency response, the inverter is able to stay connected but cannot inject the needed active power to support the grid. This may be improved by the manufacturer by using droop control. 3) The GFM inverter exhibits harmful transients in voltage and frequency during islanding operation, which can be enhanced by maintaining the same operating points before and after the breaker is open.

black start↗

CH 4 Activation over Perovskite Catalysts: True Density and Reactivity of Active Sites

The high thermal stability of perovskites has drawn attention toward their applications for catalytic CH 4 activation and conversion, typically occurring at high temperatures. The reaction rates of perovskite catalysts for CH 4 combustion, however, trail behind those of noble metal catalysts. Ways to optimize the performance of perovskite catalysts are destined to trial-and-error approaches unless their complex reconstructed surfaces are correlated with fundamental kinetic parameters. Discerning the intrinsic activity of surface catalytic sites and the density of those sites is crucial to rationally envision complex metal oxides with enhanced catalytic performance. Here, the present work presents a detailed kinetic analysis of catalytic CH 4 combustion over a set of seven perovskites (SrTiO 3 , SrZrO 3 , SrFeO 3 , LaFeO 3 , LaInO 3 , LaCoO 3 , LaMnO 3 ) with various surface terminations. Steady-state isotopic transient kinetic analysis was employed to measure turnover frequency (TOF) and density of surface intermediates (N) under operando conditions. Top surface characterization elucidated performance-structure relationships between near-monolayer surface composition and intrinsic reactivity of the catalysts. By using a chemical etching procedure to expose Fe-sites at the top surface of LaFeO 3 (LaFeO 3 , HNO 3 ), its TOF was increased 4-fold, compared with the unmodified sample, although N on the surface of LaFeO 3 , HNO 3 decreased. Density functional theory simulations corroborated that surface Fe-termination and La-Fe termination offer lower energetic barriers for CH 4 activation when compared with La-termination. In general, surface reconstruction is shown as a tool to tune TOF and N to improve reaction rates. This work fills a gap in current kinetic studies of perovskites through a careful assessment and discussion of the density and intrinsic reactivity of active sites for methane combustion over well-characterized reconstructed perovskite surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

Demonstration of Grid Services Using Mixed Grid-Forming and Grid-Following Technologies at the Wheatridge Renewable Energy Facility (Final Technical Report)

This Final Technical Report summarizes the analytical, modeling, and engineering work performed to evaluate grid-forming (GFM) inverter capabilities within a large hybrid renewable energy facility. The project focused on assessing the ability of advanced inverter-based resources to provide essential reliability services through coordinated operation of grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) technologies. During Budget Period 1, the project developed a comprehensive framework of GFM performance metrics, including angle support, voltage regulation, frequency response, damping behavior, and current-limiting performance. Extensive electromagnetic transient (EMT) studies and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing were conducted to validate GFM behavior under a range of operating conditions, including weak-grid scenarios, voltage disturbances, and multi-resource interactions. The project also established validated modeling approaches, plant-level control integration strategies, commissioning frameworks, and high-speed measurement infrastructure to support future field demonstration. Although the project concluded prior to field demonstration, the results provide a utility-scale foundation for evaluating, modeling, and deploying grid-forming technologies. The methodologies and tools developed contribute to industry understanding of inverter-based resource behavior and support future power system reliability under increasing renewable penetration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗