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105 records · Page 6

Estimating region-specific fuel economy in the United States from real-world driving cycles

Here we describe a method for estimating region-specific real-world light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States that is unique in both the size and representativeness of real-world driving that was considered, and for its ability to model regional variations in driving patterns. Over one million miles of national driving data were used to select real-world cycles representative of observed trip categories. The six cycles were compared to U.S. legislative cycles, revealing some key differences. Finally, a set of cycle weighting factors for 533 separate U.S. regions was derived from annual traffic statistics. Applying this method, it was found that regional fuel economy varies due to differences in driving patterns alone and that rural driving patterns lead to improved fuel economy (for conventional vehicles). The driving cycles and regional weighting factors described here are useful for testing and simulation studies, specifically those sensitive to regional variations in driving patterns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 11: Truck Electrification for Improved Air Quality and Health

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This report focuses on truck electrification as a means to improve air quality and health in traffic and air quality disadvantaged communities. It also identifies potential strategies to more equitably distribute air quality benefits from electrification of trucks, defined here as heavy-duty vehicles over 8,500 pounds (lbs) gross vehicle weight. Specifically, NREL analyzed 1) baseline air pollutant emissions, 2) emissions reductions associated with incremental increases in electrification of three types of heavy-duty trucks in 2035, and 3) resultant changes to air pollutant concentrations for selected census tracts along major roadways in disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities for comparison. In addition, NREL analyzed the impact of estimated pollutant concentrations on several health effects and the distribution of those health effects by disadvantaged community status. NREL's analysis is complemented by a University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) analysis of air quality benefits from transportation electrification, which included light-duty vehicles (Chapter 15) and evaluated regional air-quality changes across Los Angeles. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense

On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.

Fireball↗

Economic feasibility of in-motion wireless power transfer in a high-density traffic corridor

Electricity is expected to become a dominant power source in the transportation sector, but under a stationary recharging model, electric powered vehicles still suffer some disadvantages relative to conventional vehicles. Recent developments in wireless power transfer (WPT) technology can enable an alternative vehicle recharging model wherein power is supplied to vehicles while they are moving, mitigating the need for charging stops and high-capacity on-board energy storage. One of the greatest concerns associated with dynamic WPT is that the required infrastructure costs would be prohibitively high; however, the life-cycle costs and benefits of such a system have been under-researched. Here in this work, we apply a systems-level assessment to a case study of a WPT charging system located on the densely trafficked I-710 corridor in Los Angeles, California. Detailed cost estimates for electronics and implementation, high-fidelity energy consumption modeling, and survey-derived adoption projections are applied to evaluate scenarios of economic feasibility and environmental impact. Results show that a “1st-of-a-kind” system can achieve a payback in 20 years while maintaining operating cost advantages relative to petroleum fueling. System economics are shown to improve substantially with “nth-of-a-kind” capital costs. Discussion focuses on the effect of uptake trajectory on economic viability and detailed economics outcomes for light duty and heavy duty vehicles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying automated vehicle benefits in reducing driving stress: a simulation experiment approach

Driving is a stressful activity because of the mental workload required to maneuver a vehicle in certain travel contexts, such as congested traffic, multi-modal networks requiring complex interaction with surrounding vehicles, and aggressive driving. Autonomous vehicles (AVs), on the other hand, can reduce the mental workload by performing most of the driving tasks and providing users with a comfortable ride. This study develops a pathway model to relate different health determinants, including travel reliability, safety, driving comfort, and value of time, to Autonomous vehicles driving and studies their impact on the value of driving stress. A case study example of Autonomous vehicles simulation is used to determine the impact of these health determinants. The value of driving stress in Autonomous vehicles is estimated as a function of the value of these individual health determinants. The results show that the perception of safe or unsafe driving in Autonomous vehicles is the most important factor in changing the perception of driving stress in Autonomous vehicles. Similarly, perceptions of comfortable driving in Autonomous vehicles and reduced workload with a higher value of time also reduce driving stress in Autonomous vehicles. These results allow Autonomous vehicles adoption models to explicitly consider driving stress reduction as a benefit and can improve understanding of Autonomous vehicles adoption, which may require quantitative analysis of underlying motivating benefits, including driving stress reduction.

Khattak, Zulqarnain H.↗

Pavement condition and climatic data in southeast Texas: A dataset for evaluating flood impacts on pavement performance

Effective pavement maintenance is essential for economic stability, optimal network performance, and roadway safety. Achieving this requires thorough evaluation of pavement conditions, including structural integrity, surface roughness, and distress characteristics. Pavement performance indicators play a critical role in influencing vehicle safety and ride quality. Recent advances have emphasized the use of data-driven modeling to anticipate pavement behavior, with the goal of optimizing resource allocation and refining Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) strategies through accurate condition assessment. A foundational requirement for these modeling efforts is the availability of standardized, high-quality datasets that can support robust and reproducible infrastructure analysis. This data article presents a comprehensive dataset assembled to facilitate pavement performance prediction, with a geographic focus on Southeast Texas, particularly the flood-vulnerable area of Beaumont. The dataset encompasses pavement and traffic attributes, meteorological records, flood simulation outputs, ground deformation measurements, and topographic indices, enabling detailed examination of both load-associated and non-load-associated degradation mechanisms. Data preprocessing was performed using ArcGIS Pro, Microsoft Excel, and Python to ensure consistency and usability in data-driven modeling applications, including machine learning workflows. Key contributions of this dataset include its utility in analyzing the climatic and environmental factors affecting pavement conditions, identifying critical predictive features, and enabling in-depth correlation analysis across diverse variables. By filling existing gaps in input variable selection resources, this dataset supports the development of predictive tools for estimating future maintenance demand and enhancing the resilience of pavement networks in flood-impacted areas. The resource highlights the importance of standardized datasets for advancing pavement management practices and provides a robust foundation for ongoing infrastructure performance modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Parameter Estimation for Decoding Sensor Signals

This paper introduces a parameter estimation approach for decoding digital sensor signals in a cyber-physical system. For unknown or not fully characterized digital sensor data, it can be difficult to decipher a desired signal from background or noise. In a cyber-physical system with networked sensors, we can leverage knowledge of the physical system to inform the decoding of the digital signals. This work in progress is a case study on deciphering commercial vehicle on-board sensor networks that communicate through the Controller Area Network (CAN). By understanding the stock vehicle sensor network, a vehicle can be extended into a scalable research platform with minimal instrumentation. Our challenge was to localize desired sensor signals encoded in network traffic that included other sensor data, control messages, as well as encoding and security overhead. Due to the vehicle’s unknown sensor network, our approach developed methods to efficiently analyze and identify key signals despite the large state-space for potential signal embeddings.

Nice, Matthew↗

Receiver willingness to participate in off-hour service programs

Service trips, a frequently overlooked segment of urban traffic, represent a disproportionately large share of the negative impacts associated with commercial activity. The reason is that although service trips are less frequent than freight trips, they often take longer and thus occupy a significant share of commercial parking. Demand management programs seeking to move service trips off-hours can potentially reduce congestion and emissions but they have been understudied. Here, this paper describes research conducted to investigate receivers’ willingness to participate in off-hour programs for planned service activity. The research reported in this paper analyzes results from a survey of 189 business establishments in New York City and the Capital Region in New York State using descriptive analyses of the data, and by estimating a discrete choice model to gain insight into how business characteristics influence willingness to participate in off-hour services. To assess the impacts of a hypothetical off-hour services program, the authors applied the discrete choice model, together with service trip attraction models, to quantify the hours of daytime parking that could be eliminated by the proposed program in certain ZIP Codes in New York City and the Albany area. The research conducted led to the identification of numerous policy implications that will help policymakers understand and maximize the potential benefits of implementing off-hour service programs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Multicarrier Spread Spectrum Communications With Noncontiguous Subcarrier Bands for HF Skywave Links

Existing high-frequency (HF) radio platforms offer robust performance against the volatile HF propagation channel. However, the growing traffic across the band contests the reliability of these systems. While techniques to mitigate the effects of narrowband interference have been thoroughly explored, they are insufficient against wideband interference or when the transmission band is occupied by numerous scattered users. To improve reliability in these congested channel conditions, we propose a filter-bank based multicarrier spread-spectrum waveform with noncontiguous subcarrier bands. Using noncontiguous subcarrier bands enables the system to at once leverage the robustness of a wideband system while retaining the frequency agility of a narrowband system. In this study, we modify a filter-bank transmitter structure to accommodate noncontiguous subcarrier bands and consider several immediate impacts of this change, such as elevated peak-to-average-power ratios (PAPRs). A receiver architecture to process the noncontiguous spread-spectrum signal is also introduced, along with details regarding wideband channel estimation. Finally, we develop efficient transmitter and receiver structures to support practical system implementations. We conclude by comparing the performance of contiguous and noncontiguous systems through both simulation and over-the-air testing. The results show that the noncontiguous system remains robust in typical HF channels while significantly outperforming the contiguous system in congested spectral conditions.

(PAPR↗

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Real-World Evaluation of National Energy Efficiency Potential of Cold Storage Evaporator Technology in the Context of Engine Start-Stop Systems

National concerns over energy consumption and emissions from the transportation sector have prompted regulatory agencies to implement aggressive fuel economy targets for light-duty vehicles through the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration/Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. Automotive manufacturers have responded by bringing competitive technologies to market that maximize efficiency while meeting or exceeding consumer performance and comfort expectations. In a collaborative effort among Toyota Motor Corporation, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the real-world savings of one such technology is evaluated. A commercially available Toyota Highlander equipped with two-phase cold storage technology was tested at ANL’s chassis dynamometer testing facility. The cold storage technology maintains the thermal state of air-conditioning evaporators to enable longer and more frequent engine-off operation in vehicles equipped with start-stop functionality. Test results were analyzed and provided to NREL where a novel simulation framework was developed and calibrated to the test data. The vehicle model was then exercised over a large set of real-world drive cycle and ambient condition data to estimate national-level fuel economy benefits. Results indicate that the cold storage evaporator provided national fuel consumption reductions of 0.113% relative to a conventional evaporator in the same vehicle. In addition, when the cold storage evaporator engine stop/start was enabled for any temperature and the baseline was limited to the EPA menu, Start and Stop credit assumption of 27°C, a national fuel savings of 0.497% was found. Fuel savings resulted from a combination of extended engine-off duration during idle events and increased frequency of deceleration fuel cutoff, both enabled by the ability of the cold storage evaporator to maintain thermal state in situations where air conditioning is active.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Evaluating Energy Efficiency Opportunities from Connected and Automated Vehicle Deployments Coupled with Shared Mobility in California

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can be considered to be a disruptive transportation technology, with the potential to significantly improve overall transportation system efficiency; however, CAVs may increase induce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and bring on greater energy consumption. Further, shared mobility is another disruptive transportation event that is reshaping our travel patterns. The primary goal of this project was to extensively collect data from vehicles and associated infrastructure equipped with CAV technologies from both real-world experiments and simulation studies mainly deployed in California, and develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating energy efficiency opportunities from large-scale (e.g., statewide) introduction of CAVs and a wide deployment of shared mobility systems in a variety of scenarios. To quantify the combined impact of CAV and shared mobility on travel behavior, traffic performance, and energy efficiency, a unique mesoscopic simulation-based model was developed for mobility and energy efficiency evaluation considering these disruptive transportation technologies. As a complement to existing studies on nationwide evaluation of CAVs’ energy impacts, this project was focused on data collection efforts and CAV applications under congested traffic environments that are frequently experienced on a massive scale across the major metropolitan areas in California. Extensive real-world data collection supplemented with simulation studies were conducted to cover a variety of CAV and shared mobility scenarios, particularly on scenarios less-explored in the existing research. Another key component of this project was to consider the interaction between different CAV technologies and shared mobility models, and the compound effect on energy efficiency. A comprehensive modeling suite was developed to quantify the impact of new mobility technologies on travel behavior and traffic performance. The developed modeling framework includes an energy intensity module, mode choice module and activity generation module that are integrated into an agent-based BEAM simulation platform to perform impact analysis based on a variety of scenarios. In addition, the RouteE model has been upgraded to incorporate the impact of CAVs on traffic flow, VMT and energy intensity, using micro-simulation data collected from both freeways and urban arterials. A novel fundamental influencing factor (FIF) mode choice model was developed to link CAV and shared mobility components with travel behaviors, and adapted into the BEAM-centered model framework. A statewide energy inventory was constructed under various CAV technology deployment scenarios by incorporating datasets and models for predicting vehicle market share and vehicle usage, which are tightly associated with the penetration of shared mobility systems. Based applying this modeling suite to a calibrated network in Riverside California, it was found that cooperative automated driving in general will improve mobility, but automated vehicles, even when deployed in a shared autonomous fleet, will likely bring an increase of VMT (up to 36%) due to mode shifts and deadheading. Ride-hailing vehicles typically have better energy efficiency and a higher share of electric vehicles, which helps offset the negative impact from VMT increases when estimating the system-level energy consumption. In general, simulation results show a 6% increase in energy consumption for the scenarios with an increasing shift to ride-hailing modes. The statewide analysis based on the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) sample data is consistent with the findings from the Riverside network and validate the developed clustering-prediction modeling methodology. The outcomes from this project will help close the knowledge gap on recognizing the potential performance and energy impacts of a broad deployment of CAV and shared mobility technologies across a wide range of roadway infrastructure with varying levels of congestion. Results from this project: 1) will support policymakers in steering CAV development and deployment towards an energy favorable direction; 2) reduce uncertainties in estimating energy saving opportunities from new mobility technologies and services; 3) increase the confidence of CAV technology investors both on the infrastructure side (i.e., transportation agencies) and on the vehicle side (i.e., OEMs); and 4) expedite the deployment of energy-efficient CAV and shared mobility applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Effect of natural gamma background radiation on portal monitor radioisotope unmixing

It is well known that national security relies on several layers of protection. One of the most important is the traffic control at borders and ports that exploits Radiation Portal Monitors (RPMs) to detect and deter potential smuggling attempts. Most portal monitors rely on plastic scintillators to detect gamma rays. Despite their poor energy resolution, their cost effectiveness and the possibility of growing them in large sizes make them the gamma-ray detector of choice in RPMs. Unmixing algorithms applied to organic scintillator spectra can be used to reliably identify the bare and unshielded radionuclides that triggered an alarm, even with fewer than 1000 detected counts and in the presence of two or three nuclides at the same time. In this work, we experimentally studied the robustness of a state-of-the-art unmixing algorithm to different radiation background spectra, due to varying atmospheric conditions, in the 16 °C to 28 °C temperature range. In the presence of background, the algorithm is able to identify the nuclides present in unknown radionuclide mixtures of three nuclides, when at least 1000 counts from the sources are detected. With fewer counts available, we found larger differences of approximately 35.9% between estimated nuclide fractions and actual ones. In these low count rate regimes, the uncertainty associated by our algorithm with the identified fractions could be an additional valuable tool to determine whether the identification is reliable or a longer measurement to increase the signal-to-noise ratio is needed. Moreover, the algorithm identification performances are consistent throughout different data sets, with negligible differences in the presence of background types of different intensity and spectral shape.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Real-time Ridesharing for Transportation Hubs with Demand and Supply Uncertainty

Transportation hubs in major cities generate a significant amount of trips by taxis and for-hail vehicles (FHV), with many of the trips sharing similar destinations. This suggests promising opportunities to leverage the collective travel needs with dedicated ridesharing solutions to reduce the externalities of excessive traffic at transportation hubs. In this study, we develop a novel dynamic ridesharing approach to serve trips from the transportation hub by considering (1) demand (new passengers) and supply (newly available vehicles) in the near future and (2) the uncertainty of future predictions. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, we develop a data structure called hub mobility tree to generate potential combinations of shareable trips as candidate schedules efficiently. Then the generated schedules are used in the second stage to formulate the stochastic hub-based ridesharing problem (SHRP), which is a stochastic integer programming problem with the objective to maximize the total expected ridesharing profit over time. Due to the prohibitive number of shareable trips, we then approximately solve SHRP by the sample average approximate method (SAA), and a dual Lagrangian technique is implemented to further improve the scalability of the solution approach. We demonstrate the performances of the proposed method by simulating the ridesharing service at JFK airport using NYC taxi and FHV data. The results indicate that the proposed method outperforms the myopic ridesharing (maximize profit for a single time step) and the rolling horizon method with point estimation of future demand and supply.

dynamic ridesharing↗