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NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Zavordsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS1974

A passive submicrosecond time dissemination system

A submicrosecond time dissemination system was developed. The system is composed of an experimental transit improvement satellite (TRIAD), TRANET Satellite Tracking System, and special satellite signal receivers each tied to separate cesium clocks. The 400 MHz signal from the satellite is phase modulated plus or minus 45 deg by a pseudo-random noise (PRN) digital code with a bit rate of 5/3 MHz. Evaluation of this system has shown that satellite oscillator frequency instabilities are the major source of error. Experiments indicate that Global time transfers can be made with errors less than 100 nanoseconds.

Taylor, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation Analysis of NASA SMAP L3 and L4 and SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Data in the United States

Soil moisture has a critical role in the development, frequency and persistence of climatic and hydrologic extremes such as drought, heat wave and flooding events. In situ soil moisture data are uneven and sparse in time and space. This highlights the need to utilize other soil moisture sources to fill this spatiotemporal gap. The goal of this study is to validate one satellite-based and two model-based soil moisture datasets with in situ data across the United States. Soil moisture information from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) enhanced level 3 (L3) (SMAP L3) and modeled level 4 (L4) (SMAP L4) data at 9-km resolution and Short-term Prediction Research and Transition-Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) modeled at 3-km resolution were selected for evaluation. SPoRT-LIS is a near real-time, high resolution operational land analysis data. Ground-based data were obtained from the North American Soil Moisture Database (NASMD) for 362 stations. Seven statistical indicators including anomaly, Spearman, and Pearson correlation coefficients, the systematic error (Bias), root mean square error (RMSE), unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), and normalized standard deviation (SDV) were used to evaluate the satellite- and model-derived soil moisture data. In addition, the triple collocation (TC) error model was used to measure the error among SMAP L4, SPoRT-LIS and ground-based data. This study assesses which satellite or modeled dataset is most appropriate for specific times and locations to use as a surrogate for in situ observations. Temporal and spatial analysis demonstrated that, overall, SMAP L4 performed better than SMAP L3 and SPoRT-LIS. Strong agreement was observed between SMAP L4 and in situ observations (ρ = 0.53, Bias = −0.006) in all seasons and most regions with various land covers, especially in winter and in the central regions of the United States. For croplands, SMAP L4 presented the best agreement with in situ data, analyzing all period (ρ = 0.60) and non-winter period (ρ = 0.61) separately.

Tavakol, Ameneh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient and generalizable nested Fourier-DeepONet for three-dimensional geological carbon sequestration

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) involves injecting CO2 into subsurface geological formationsfor permanent storage. Numerical simulations could guide decisions in GCS projects by predictingCO 2 migration pathways and the pressure distribution in storage formation. However, these simula-tions are often computationally expensive due to highly coupled physics and large spatial-temporalsimulation domains. Surrogate modelling with data-driven machine learning has become a promis-ing alternative to accelerate physics-based simulations. Among these, the Fourier neural operator(FNO) has been applied to three-dimensional synthetic subsurface models. Despite its good accuracyin simulating CO 2 plume migration, it requires large computational resources in training and alsolacks generalizability. Here, to further improve performance, we have developed a nested Fourier-DeepONet by combining the expressiveness of the FNO with the modularity of a deep operatornetwork (DeepONet). This new framework is twice as efficient as a nested FNO for training and has atleast 80% lower GPU memory requirement due to its flexibility to treat temporal coordinates sepa-rately. These performance improvements are achieved without compromising prediction accuracy.In addition, the generalization and extrapolation ability of nested Fourier-DeepONet beyond thetraining range has been thoroughly evaluated. Nested Fourier-DeepONet outperformed the nestedFNO for extrapolation in time with more than 50% reduced error. It also exhibited good extrapolationaccuracy beyond the training range in terms of reservoir properties, number of wells, and injectionrate.

Lee, Jonathan E. [Department of Chemical and Envir↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multilevel Conditional Disturbance Rejection Control for Satellite Attitude Tracking

Recently, the conditional disturbance rejection controller (CDRC) was proposed to improve control performance by leveraging disturbances that have beneficial effects on the system. However, it only considers disturbances acting on the state variable directly influenced by them. Although fast convergence of this state can be achieved with the CDRC, it may unintentionally affect the convergence of the output (i.e., the primary state). Here, in this article, a multilevel CDRC is proposed to enhance satellite attitude control performance by accounting for the effect of disturbances on both attitude (output) and angular velocity. The extended state observer is employed to estimate the lumped disturbance, including the modeling errors and external disturbances. Then, a backstepping-based controller with the multilevel disturbance rejection law (ML-DRL) is designed for attitude tracking. The ML-DRL is developed to improve the control performance by using a disturbance with a damping effect on both attitude and velocity. Faster convergence of attitude and velocity can be achieved by conditionally compensating for the disturbance. The stability of the proposed control method is analyzed by demonstrating that the errors are bounded as time tends to infinity. The attitude control performance of the proposed method is evaluated through numerical examples conducted using the MATLAB/Simulink Multibody tool.

Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC)↗

NASA NTRS2000

Dynamic Response of a Planetary Gear System Using a Finite Element/Contact Mechanics Model

The dynamic response of a helicopter planetary gear system is examined over a wide range of operating speeds and torques. The analysis tool is a unique, semianalytical finite element formulation that admits precise representation of the tooth geometry and contact forces that are crucial in gear dynamics. Importantly, no a priori specification of static transmission error excitation or mesh frequency variation is required; the dynamic contact forces are evaluated internally at each time step. The calculated response shows classical resonances when a harmonic of mesh frequency coincides with a natural frequency. However, peculiar behavior occurs where resonances expected to be excited at a given speed are absent. This absence of particular modes is explained by analytical relationships that depend on the planetary configuration and mesh frequency harmonic. The torque sensitivity of the dynamic response is examined and compared to static analyses. Rotation mode response is shown to be more sensitive to input torque than translational mode response.

Parker, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Required Time of Arrival as a Control Mechanism to Mitigate Uncertainty in Arrival Traffic Demand Management

The objective of this study is to explore the use of Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capability on the flight deck as a control mechanism on arrival traffic management to improve traffic delivery accuracy by mitigating the effect of traffic demand uncertainty. The uncertainties are caused by various factors, such as departure error due to the difference between scheduled departure and the actual take-off time. A simulation study was conducted using the Multi Aircraft Control System (MACS) software, a comprehensive research platform developed in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at NASA Ames Research Center. The Crossing Time (CT) performance (i.e. the difference between target crossing time and actual crossing time) of the RTA for uncertainty mitigation during cruise phase was evaluated under the influence of varying two main factors: wind severity (heavy wind vs. mild wind), and wind error (1 hour, 2 hours, and 5 hours wind forecast errors). To examine the CT performance improvement made by the RTA, the comparison to the CT of the aircraft that were not assigned with RTA (Non-RTA) under the influence of the selected factors was also made. The Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) was chosen for this study. A total 66 inbound traffic to the EWR (34 of them were airborne when the simulation was initiated, 32 were pre-departures at that time) was simulated, where the pre-scripted departure error was assigned to each pre-departure (61 conform to their Expected Departure Clearance Time, which is +-300 seconds of their scheduled departure time). The results of the study show that the delivery accuracy improvement can be achieved by assigning RTA, regardless of the influence of the selected two factors (the wind severity and the wind information inaccuracy). Across all wind variances, 66.9 (265 out of 396) of the CT performance of the RTA assigned aircraft was within +- 60 seconds (i.e. target tolerance range) and 88.9 (352 out of 396) aircraft met +-300 seconds marginal tolerance range, while only 33.6 (133 out of 396) of the Non-RTA assigned aircrafts CT performance achieved the target tolerance range and 75.5 (299 out of 396) stayed within the marginal. Examination of the impact of different error sources i.e. departure error, wind severity, and wind error suggest that although large departure errors can significantly impact the CT performance, the impacts of wind severity and errors were modest relative the targeted +- 60 second conformance range.

required time of arrival (RTA)↗

NASA NTRS1992

An advanced teleoperator control system - Design and evaluation

The design goal of an advanced teleoperator control system is twofold: 1) to allow the operator's manual control to be robust to system nonlinearities such as time delays and operator's control errors, and 2) to support the high performance of teleoperation while reducing the operator's control burden by providing the master and slave arms with desirable dynamic properties and by allowing the slave arm to automatically perform such control tasks as compliance and force control in the form of task sharing. The authors present a novel teleoperator control system achieving the above design goal by taking the following into consideration: the human dynamics involved in generating control command based on visual and forced feedback is modeled and incorporated into the controller design and evaluation; the dynamic characteristics of slave and master arms are actively modified in such a way as to implement the desirable dynamic characteristics; and the force feedback is redefined in terms of the combination of opposition and force discrepancies in order to establish the required man/machine dynamic coordination under shared control. The proposed control system with human dynamics in the control loop is simulated and compared with a number of conventional methods in the presence of human control errors and time delays.

Lee, Sukhan↗

NASA NTRS1972

Simplified formula for mean cycle-slip time of phase-locked loops with steady-state phase error.

Previous work shows that the mean time from lock to a slipped cycle of a phase-locked loop is given by a certain double integral. Accurate numerical evaluation of this formula for the second-order loop is extremely vexing because the difference between exponentially large quantities is involved. The presented article demonstrates a method in which a much-reduced precision program can be used to obtain the mean first-cycle slip time for a loop of arbitrary degree tracking at a specified SNR and steady-state phase error. It also presents a simple approximate formula that is asymptotically tight at higher loop SNR.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A simplified procedure for correcting both errors and erasures of a Reed-Solomon code using the Euclidean algorithm

It is well known that the Euclidean algorithm or its equivalent, continued fractions, can be used to find the error locator polynomial and the error evaluator polynomial in Berlekamp's key equation needed to decode a Reed-Solomon (RS) code. A simplified procedure is developed and proved to correct erasures as well as errors by replacing the initial condition of the Euclidean algorithm by the erasure locator polynomial and the Forney syndrome polynomial. By this means, the errata locator polynomial and the errata evaluator polynomial can be obtained, simultaneously and simply, by the Euclidean algorithm only. With this improved technique the complexity of time domain RS decoders for correcting both errors and erasures is reduced substantially from previous approaches. As a consequence, decoders for correcting both errors and erasures of RS codes can be made more modular, regular, simple, and naturally suitable for both VLSI and software implementation. An example illustrating this modified decoding procedure is given for a (15, 9) RS code.

Truong, T. K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

EXPRES. I. HD 3651 as an Ideal RV Benchmark

The next generation of exoplanet-hunting spectrographs should deliver up to an order of magnitude improvement in radial velocity (RV) precision over the standard 1 m s{sup −1} state-of-the-art spectrographs. This advance is critical for enabling the detection of Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars. New calibration techniques such as laser frequency combs and stabilized etalons ensure that the instrumental stability is well characterized. However, additional sources of error include stellar noise, undetected short-period planets, and telluric contamination. To understand and ultimately mitigate error sources, the contributing terms in the error budget must be isolated to the greatest extent possible. Here, we introduce a new high-cadence RV program, the Extreme Precision Spectrograph (EXPRES) 100 Earths Survey, which aims to identify rocky planets around bright, nearby G and K dwarfs. We also present a benchmark case: the 62 day orbit of a Saturn-mass planet orbiting the chromospherically quiet star, HD 3651. The combination of high eccentricity (0.6) and a moderately long orbital period ensures significant dynamical clearing of any inner planets. Our Keplerian model for this planetary orbit has a residual rms of 58 cm s{sup −1} over a ∼6 month time baseline. By eliminating significant contributors to the RV error budget, HD 3651 serves as a standard for evaluating the long-term precision of extreme precision RV programs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1997

Multiplexed Holographic Data Storage in Bacteriorhodopsin

High density optical data storage, driven by the information revolution, remains at the forefront of current research areas. Much of the current research has focused on photorefractive materials (SBN and LiNbO3) and polymers, despite various problems with expense, durability, response time and retention periods. Photon echo techniques, though promising, are questionable due to the need for cryogenic conditions. Bacteriorhodopsin (BR) films are an attractive alternative recording medium. Great strides have been made in refining BR, and materials with storage lifetimes as long as 100 days have recently become available. The ability to deposit this robust polycrystalline material as high quality optical films suggests the use of BR as a recording medium for commercial optical disks. Our own recent research has demonstrated the suitability of BR films for real time spatial filtering and holography. We propose to fully investigate the feasibility of performing holographic mass data storage in BR. Important aspects of the problem to be investigated include various data multiplexing techniques (e.g. angle- amplitude- and phase-encoded multiplexing, and in particular shift-multiplexing), multilayer recording techniques, SLM selection and data readout using crossed polarizers for noise rejection. Systems evaluations of storage parameters, including access times, memory refresh constraints, erasure, signal-to-noise ratios and bit error rates, will be included in our investigations.

Mehrl, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Optimum data analysis procedures for Titan 4 and Space Shuttle payload acoustic measurements during lift-off

Analytical expressions have been derived to describe the mean square error in the estimation of the maximum rms value computed from a step-wise (or running) time average of a nonstationary random signal. These analytical expressions have been applied to the problem of selecting the optimum averaging times that will minimize the total mean square errors in estimates of the maximum sound pressure levels measured inside the Titan IV payload fairing (PLF) and the Space Shuttle payload bay (PLB) during lift-off. Based on evaluations of typical Titan IV and Space Shuttle launch data, it has been determined that the optimum averaging times for computing the maximum levels are (1) T (sub o) = 1.14 sec for the maximum overall level, and T(sub oi) = 4.88 f (sub i) (exp -0.2) sec for the maximum 1/3 octave band levels inside the Titan IV PLF, and (2) T (sub o) = 1.65 sec for the maximum overall level, and T (sub oi) = 7.10 f (sub i) (exp -0.2) sec for the maximum 1/3 octave band levels inside the Space Shuttle PLB, where f (sub i) is the 1/3 octave band center frequency. However, the results for both vehicles indicate that the total rms error in the maximum level estimates will be within 25 percent the minimum error for all averaging times within plus or minus 50 percent of the optimum averaging time, so a precise selection of the exact optimum averaging time is not critical. Based on these results, linear averaging times (T) are recommended for computing the maximum sound pressure level during lift-off.

Piersol, Allan G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing Accuracy-Speedup Tradeoff in Machine Learning Surrogates for Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The performance promise of machine learning surrogates of molecular dynamics simulations of soft materials is significant but generally comes at the cost of acquiring large training datasets to learn the complex relationships between input soft material attributes and output properties. Under the constraint of limited high-performance computing resources, optimizing the size of the training datasets becomes paramount. Using an artificial neural network based surrogate for molecular dynamics simulations of confined electrolytes, we explore the tradeoff between surrogate accuracy and computational gains. Accuracy is assessed by computing the root-mean-square errors between the surrogate predictions and the ground truth results obtained via molecular dynamics simulations. The computational performance is judged by evaluating the speedup which incorporates the training dataset creation time. Improvement in accuracy occurs with a loss of speedup, which scales as the inverse of the training dataset size. Furthermore, the link between surrogate generalizability and the accuracy-speedup tradeoff is assessed by examining the errors incurred in surrogate predictions on unseen, interpolated input variables and developing a net speedup metric to capture the associated gains.

Anions↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive job and resource management for the growing quantum cloud

As the popularity of quantum computing continues to grow, efficient quantum machine access over the cloud is critical to both academic and industry researchers across the globe. And as cloud quantum computing demands increase exponentially, the analysis of resource consumption and execution characteristics are key to efficient management of jobs and resources at both the vendor-end as well as the client-end. While the analysis and optimization of job / resource consumption and management are popular in the classical HPC domain, it is severely lacking for more nascent technology like quantum computing.This paper proposes optimized adaptive job scheduling to the quantum cloud taking note of primary characteristics such as queuing times and fidelity trends across machines, as well as other characteristics such as quality of service guarantees and machine calibration constraints. Key components of the proposal include a) a prediction model which predicts fidelity trends across machine based on compiled circuit features such as circuit depth and different forms of errors, as well as b) queuing time prediction for each machine based on execution time estimations. Altogether, this proposal is evaluated on simulated IBM machines across a diverse set of quantum applications and system loading scenarios, and is able to reduce wait times by over 3x and improve fidelity by over 40% on specific usecases, when compared to traditional job schedulers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2009

Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Model Performance in a Real-time Air Quality Estimation System

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect estimate of particle matter using satellite observations, has shown great promise in improving estimates of PM 2.5 air quality surface. Currently, few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve the model accuracy of PM 2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. We believe that two major aspects may be worthy of consideration in that area: 1) the approach to integrate satellite measurements with ground measurements in the pollution estimation, and 2) identification of an optimal temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground measurements. This paper is focused on the second aspect on the identifying the optimal temporal scale to correlate AOD with PM2.5. Five following different temporal scales were chosen to evaluate their impact on the model performance: 1) within the last 3 days, 2) within the last 10 days, 3) within the last 30 days, 4) within the last 90 days, and 5) the time period with the highest correlation in a year. The model performance is evaluated for its accuracy, bias, and errors based on the following selected statistics: the Mean Bias, the Normalized Mean Bias, the Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Mean Error, and the Index of Agreement. This research shows that the model with the temporal scale of within the last 30 days displays the best model performance in this study area using 2004 and 2005 data sets.

Li, Hui↗