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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

First Results From Nb3Sn Coatings of 2.6 GHz Nb SRF Cavities Using DC Cylindrical Magnetron Sputtering System

A DC cylindrical magnetron sputtering system has been commissioned and operated to deposit Nb3Sn onto 2.6 GHz Nb SRF cavities. After optimizing the deposition conditions in a mock-up cavity, Nb-Sn films are deposited first on flat samples by multilayer sequential sputtering of Nb and Sn, and later annealed at 950°C for 3 hours. X-ray diffraction of the films showed multiple peaks for the Nb3Sn phase and Nb (substrate). No peaks from any Nb- Sn compound other than Nb3Sn were detected. Later three 2.6 GHz Nb SRF cavities are coated with ~1 μm thick Nb3Sn. The first Nb3Sn coated cavity reached close to Eacc = 8 MV/m, demonstrating a quality factor Q0 of $3.2 \times 108$ at Tbath = 4.4 K and Eacc = 5 MV/m, about a factor of three higher than that of Nb at this temperature. Q0 was close to $1.1 \times 109$, dominated by the residual resistance, at 2 K and Eacc = 5 MV/m. The Nb3Sn coated cavities demonstrated Tc in the range of $17.9 -- 18$ K. Here we present the commissioning experience, system optimization, and the first results from the Nb3Sn fabrication on flat samples and SRF cavities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Timing based clustering of childhood BMI trajectories reveals differential maturational patterns; Study in the Northern Finland Birth Cohorts 1966 and 1986

Children’s biological age does not always correspond to their chronological age. In the case of BMI trajectories, this can appear as phase variation, which can be seen as shift, stretch, or shrinking between trajectories. With maturation thought of as a process moving towards the final state - adult BMI, we assessed whether children can be divided into latent groups reflecting similar maturational age of BMI. The groups were characterised by early factors and time-related features of the trajectories. We used data from two general population birth cohort studies, Northern Finland Birth Cohorts 1966 and 1986 (NFBC1966 and NFBC1986). Height (n = 6329) and weight (n = 6568) measurements were interpolated in 34 shared time points using B-splines, and BMI values were calculated between 3 months to 16 years. Pairwise phase distances of 2999 females and 3163 males were used as a similarity measure in k-medoids clustering. We identified three clusters of trajectories in females and males (Type 1: females, n = 1566, males, n = 1669; Type 2: females, n = 1028, males, n = 973; Type 3: females, n = 405, males, n = 521). Similar distinct timing patterns were identified in males and females. The clusters did not differ by sex, or early growth determinants studied. Trajectory cluster Type 1 reflected to the shape of what is typically illustrated as the childhood BMI trajectory in literature. However, the other two have not been identified previously. Type 2 pattern was more common in the NFBC1966 suggesting a generational shift in BMI maturational patterns.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tundra Vegetation Community Type, Not Microclimate, Controls Asynchrony of Above‐ and Below‐Ground Phenology

The below-ground growing season often extends beyond the above-ground growing season in tundra ecosystems and as the climate warms, shifts in growing seasons are expected. However, we do not yet know to what extent, when and where asynchrony in above- and below-ground phenology occurs and whether variation is driven by local vegetation communities or spatial variation in microclimate. Here, we combined above- and below-ground plant phenology metrics to compare the relative timings and magnitudes of leaf and fine-root growth and senescence across microclimates and plant communities at five sites across the Arctic and alpine tundra biome. We observed asynchronous growth between above- and below-ground plant tissue, with the below-ground season extending up to 74% (~56 days) beyond the onset of above-ground leaf senescence. Plant community type, rather than microclimate, was a key factor controlling the timing, productivity, and growth rates of fine roots, with graminoid roots exhibiting a distinct ‘pulse’ of growth later into the growing season than shrub roots. Our findings indicate the potential of vegetation change to influence below-ground carbon storage as the climate warms and roots remain active in unfrozen soils for longer. Taken together, our findings of increased root growth in soils that remain thawed later into the growing season, in combination with ongoing tundra vegetation change including increased shrub and graminoid abundance, indicate increased below-ground productivity and altered carbon cycling in the tundra biome.

below-ground↗
DOE OSTI2025

Millisecond lifetimes and coherence times in 2D transmon qubits

Materials improvement is a powerful approach to reducing loss and decoherence in superconducting qubits, because such improvements can be readily translated to large-scale processors. Recent work improved transmon coherence by using tantalum as a base layer and sapphire as a substrate. The losses in these devices are dominated by two-level systems with comparable contributions from both the surface and bulk dielectrics, indicating that both must be tackled to achieve substantial improvements in the state of the art. Here we show that replacing the substrate with high-resistivity silicon markedly decreases the bulk substrate loss, enabling 2D transmons with time-averaged quality factors (Q avg ) of 9.7 × 10 6 across 45 qubits. For our best qubit, we achieve a Q avg of 1.5 × 10 7 , reaching a maximum Q of 2.5 × 10 7 , corresponding to a lifetime (T 1 ) up to 1.68 ms. This low loss also allows us to observe decoherence effects related to the Josephson junction, and we use an improved, low-contamination junction deposition to achieve Hahn echo coherence times (T 2E ) exceeding T 1 . We achieve these materials improvements without any modifications to the qubit architecture, allowing us to readily incorporate standard quantum control gates. Here, we demonstrate single-qubit gates with 99.994% fidelity. The tantalum-on-silicon platform comprises a simple material stack that can potentially be fabricated at the wafer scale and therefore can be readily translated to large-scale quantum processors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Traffic safety analysis and model updating for freeways using Bayesian method

Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling glass degradation and release of radionuclides from vitrified waste for performance assessment simulations

The release of radionuclides initially encapsulated in a slowly degrading solid waste form and contained in an eventually corroding canister defines the source term for numerical simulations for the assessment of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste. While the details of waste degradation, canister corrosion, and dissolution and mobilization of the radionuclides in pore water include complex chemical reaction and transport processes that are coupled to the thermal, hydrological, microbiological, and mechanical conditions in the repository, the source-term model suitable for use in a numerical performance assessment model should be a defensible abstraction of these mechanisms. We developed a radiological source-term model and implemented it into a non-isothermal flow and transport simulator. While the proposed source-term model is applicable to various waste forms, canister systems, and disposal concepts, we specifically considered radionuclide releases from vitrified high-level waste placed in a cylindrical canister disposed in a deep vertical borehole repository. In this model, waste degradation is a function of temperature, and it can be adjusted to evaluate the influence of and propagate uncertainties in pH, passivation reactions, and chemical conditions as well as geometrical factors. The time-dependent, congruent release of safety-relevant radionuclides present in the decaying inventory is then calculated. Finally, the radionuclides are mobilized by diffusive and advective transport according to the thermo-hydraulic conditions prevailing in the near field of the repository, from where they migrate through the geosphere to the accessible environment. We examine the influence of the source-term model’s parameters on performance assessment calculations through sensitivity and uncertainty propagation analyses, identifying influential factors and confirming the upper bound of their impact. These considerations align with the overarching goal of repository design, which is to demonstrate that engineered and natural barriers can collectively delay radionuclide migration for timescales far exceeding human planning, thereby providing multiple, redundant barriers against environmental contamination.

iTOUGH2↗
DOE OSTI2021

A techno-economic framework for comparing conventionally and additively manufactured parts for geothermal applications

Geothermal reservoir characterization, construction, and operations are technology-intensive activities that contribute significantly to the cost of delivering renewable electricity. The technologies involved, such as downhole tools and drilling equipment, are similar to those used in oil and gas exploration and production must often be adapted for use in the corrosive, high-temperature geothermal reservoir environment. Low production volume of geothermal tools presents a major challenge in meeting the industry's technology needs. Production of specialized tools for geothermal subsurface applications is often cost-prohibitive. Reduced inventory of subsurface well construction, characterization, and production tools causes geothermal reservoir development efficiency and sophistication to lag behind that of the oil and gas industry. Advances in additive manufacturing provide opportunities to advance geothermal technology while reducing lead time and costs associated with production of low-volume, complex parts. Additionally, this paper performs an initial techno-economic analysis comparing the cost of conventional production techniques and additive manufacturing for geothermal downhole applications. An analysis of representative downhole tools is used to create a framework for estimating fabrication costs of subtractive and additive techniques, including post-print machining required to meet final tolerances. The framework is used to explore several manufacturing scenarios and identify the dominant factors driving manufacturing time and cost. The current feasibility of additive manufacturing for geothermal downhole tool applications is assessed and issues for future development to better meet the needs of the geothermal industry are identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural network acceleration of large-scale structure theory calculations

Here, we make use of neural networks to accelerate the calculation of power spectra required for the analysis of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing data. For modern perturbation theory codes, evaluation time for a single cosmology and redshift can take on the order of two seconds. In combination with the comparable time required to compute linear predictions using a Boltzmann solver, these calculations are the bottleneck for many contemporary large-scale structure analyses. Here, we construct neural network-based surrogate models for Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) predictions of matter power spectra, real and redshift space galaxy power spectra, and galaxy-matter cross power spectra that attain ~ 0.1% (at one sigma) accuracy over a broad range of scales in a ωCDM parameter space. The neural network surrogates can be evaluated in approximately one millisecond, a factor of 1000 times faster than the full Boltzmann code and LPT computations. In a simulated full-shape redshift space galaxy power spectrum analysis, we demonstrate that the posteriors obtained using our surrogates are accurate compared to those obtained using the full LPT model. We make our surrogate models public at https://github.com/sfschen/EmulateLSS, so that others may take advantage of the speed gains they provide to enable rapid iteration on analysis settings, something that is essential in complex contemporary large-scale structure analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic cross section using the accelerator neutrino neutron interaction experiment

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a 26-ton gadolinium-doped water Cherenkov detector located on-axis to Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). ANNIE is uniquely positioned to perform high-statistics measurements of neutrino-nucleus interactions in water, benefiting from a large neutrino flux due to a short (100-meter) baseline. A central focus of ANNIE’s physics program is the measurement of both charged current (CC) and neutral current (NC) cross sections on water, including neutral current quasielastic (NCQE) and CC-inclusive channels. The NCQE measurement is particularly critical for constraining uncertainties in rare-event searches such as the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB), where atmospheric $\nu$NCQE interactions constitute a significant and poorly constrained background. This dissertation presents a measurement of the flux-averaged neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic ($\nu$NCQE) cross section using $2.573 \times 10^{20}$~POT of BNB exposure from the 2022 and 2023 beam years. The $\nu$NCQE interaction is identified through the primary $\gamma$-rays produced by nuclear de-excitation of the residual $^{15}$N$^*$ or $^{15}$O$^*$ nucleus following nucleon knockout from $^{16}$O. A dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) re-tuning campaign was conducted using an americium-beryllium (AmBe) calibration source, Michel electrons from stopped muons, and throughgoing dirt muons originating upstream of the detector. This multi-sample approach provided a wide-ranging $\mathcal{O}(\text{MeV})$--$\mathcal{O}(\text{GeV})$ dataset for tuning the simulated detector response, which was subsequently validated against AmBe neutron and Michel electron data for use in the $\nu$NCQE analysis. A dedicated laser calibration campaign was carried out to reduce timing uncertainties across the PMT system, enabling reconstruction of the BNB bunch substructure with sufficient resolution to serve as a background rejection tool. By selecting events in-time with individual neutrino bunches, beam-correlated $\nu$NCQE events are separated from diffuse and accelerator-induced backgrounds, notably skyshine neutrons and externally-originating events, that would otherwise dominate traditional charge-based selections within a small-scale, surface-level, short-baseline detector. A data-driven estimation of the skyshine neutron and external background rates was performed and incorporated into the systematic uncertainty budget. The flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section on oxygen is measured to be $1.57 \pm 0.06\,(\text{stat.})$ $^{+0.91}_{-0.67}\,(\text{syst.})$ $\times 10^{-38}\ \text{cm}^{2}$. A full systematic budget is constructed by propagating uncertainties in the secondary hadronic interaction modeling, background cross section normalizations, detector response, neutrino flux, and the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probabilities from oxygen nuclear de-excitation. An idealized de-excitation model, constructed from existing measurements in the literature is developed to benchmark the predictions of the \textsc{GENIE} event generator. A comparison reveals that \textsc{GENIE} systematically overpredicts the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probability from oxygen de-excitation by a factor of $1.49\times$ for $E_\gamma > 6$~MeV and $3.07\times$ in the $3$--$6$~MeV band. This comparison motivates the dominant systematic uncertainty in this analysis, where a conservative uncertainty of $^{+39.9\%}_{-0\%}$ on the primary $\gamma$-ray signal prediction is assigned. The ANNIE result is consistent with and complementary to existing flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section measurements from T2K and Super-Kamiokande, providing an independent measurement with a different detector, neutrino beam, and analysis methodology. Looking ahead, an upgrade to the ANNIE DAQ infrastructure enabling continuous extended readout will allow a complementary $\nu$NCQE neutron multiplicity measurement, directly relevant to constraining the NCQE background in DSNB searches, competitive with the recent T2K measurement at SK-Gd. The planned Super-SANDI upgrade, deploying a large Water-based Liquid Scintillator (WbLS) volume, will further extend ANNIE's reach to hadronic final states and exclusive NC channels, and enable joint measurements with liquid argon detectors sharing the BNB beamline ahead of DUNE and Hyper-Kamiokande.

Doran, Steven [Iowa State U.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Analysis of Uncertainties in Warm-Rain Parameterizations in Climate Models Based on In Situ Measurements

Abstract Because of the coarse grid size of Earth system models (ESMs), representing warm-rain processes in ESMs is a challenging task involving multiple sources of uncertainty. Previous studies evaluated warm-rain parameterizations mainly according to their performance in emulating collision–coalescence rates for local droplet populations over a short period of a few seconds. The representativeness of these local process rates comes into question when applied in ESMs for grid sizes on the order of 100 km and time steps on the order of 20–30 min. We evaluate several widely used warm-rain parameterizations in ESM application scenarios. In the comparison of local and instantaneous autoconversion rates, the two parameterization schemes based on numerical fitting to stochastic collection equation (SCE) results perform best. However, because of Jessen’s inequality, their performance deteriorates when grid-mean, instead of locally resolved, cloud properties are used in their simulations. In contrast, the effect of Jessen’s inequality partly cancels the overestimation problem of two semianalytical schemes, leading to an improvement in the ESM-like comparison. In the assessment of uncertainty due to the large time step of ESMs, it is found that the rainwater tendency simulated by the SCE is roughly linear for time steps smaller than 10 min, but the nonlinearity effect becomes significant for larger time steps, leading to errors up to a factor of 4 for a time step of 20 min. After considering all uncertainties, the grid-mean and time-averaged rainwater tendency based on the parameterization schemes is mostly within a factor of 4 of the local benchmark results simulated by SCE.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laser Driven Hydrothermal Processing (LDHP) for Rapid Dissolution of Glassy Nuclear Debris

Discovered in 2009 on the SLAB laser system at LLNL, Laser-Driven Hydrothermal Processing (LDHP) both spalls and transiently dissolves a wetted surface (e.g., rock, concrete, paint) when that surface is struck by a laser beam pulse under specific conditions. Previous projects have explored the application of LDHP to expediting sample dissolution for post-detonation nuclear forensics. Early results were very promising, indicating that this method could decrease material dissolution time by a factor of 10 or more. However, the large and complicated lasers previously used are impractical for this application. Under the R^3 venture we aimed to benchmark the LDHP capabilities of turn-key commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) lasers, and to establish how this process could be integrated into an analytical workflow for nuclear forensic analysis. We demonstrated that geological rock standards could be quickly processed into fine powder by LDHP followed by complete acid digestion in 15 minutes, without elemental fractionation that would skew analytical results. We determined that the COTS laser can be used for LDHP that could potentially reduce dissolution time for solid nuclear debris samples in post detonation nuclear forensics. One downside to this approach, however, is that the laser interactions are different with every material, so extensive method validation would be required for all likely material compositions. The LDHP processing rates of several materials were tested and determined to be favorable in the beginning with significant slowdown due to particulate scattering. This could be mitigated either by stopping and centrifuging the sample at specific intervals, or through design of a continuous solvent flow through mechanism.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Upgrading the LANSCE accelerator with a SNS RF-driven H− ion source

The LANSCE accelerator is currently powered by a filament-driven, biased converter-type H− ion source that operates at 10%, the highest plasma duty factor for this type of source, using only ∼2.2 SCCM of H2. The ion source needs to be replaced every 4 weeks, which takes up to 4 days. The measured negative beam current of 12–16 mA falls below the desired 24 mA acceptance of the LANCSE accelerator. The SNS (Spallation Neutron Source) RF-driven, H− ion source injects ∼50 mA of H− beam into the SNS accelerator at 60 Hz with a 6% duty factor and an availability of >99.5% but requires ∼30 SCCM of H2. Up to 7 A h of H− have been produced during the 14-weeks-long source service cycles, which is unprecedented for small emittance, high-current, pulsed H− ion sources. The emittance of the SNS source is slightly smaller than the emittance of the LANSCE source. The SNS source also features unrivaled low Cs consumption and can be installed and started up in <12 h. LANSCE and SNS are working toward the use of SNS H− ion sources on the LANSCE accelerator because they could (a) fill the LANSCE accelerator to its capacity, (b) decrease the source replacement time by a factor of up to 7, and (c) increase source lifetime by a factor of about 4. This paper discusses some of the challenges that emerge when trying to match a different H− source into an existing injector with significantly different characteristics and operating regimes.

Stockli, Martin P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cosmogenic 137 Xe Analysis of Alternatives for nEXO

Neutrinoless double-beta decay is a hypothetical nuclear decay in which two matter particles are produced without corresponding antimatter particles. Observation of neutrinoless double-beta decay would shed light on a potential explanation of matter-antimatter observed in the universe and also indicate the Majorana nature of neutrinos, meaning that the neutrino can act as its own antiparticle. The nEXO experiment is a proposed 5-ton liquid xenon time projection chamber detector with a projected 1.35 × 10 28 yr half-life sensitivity to neutrinoless double-beta decay in 136 Xe [J. Phys. G 49, 015104 (2022)]. While nEXO has a baseline location of SNOLAB, there are several other underground facilities in the world capable of hosting the experiment. The primary change at each site will be cosmogenic 137 Xe backgrounds, caused by varied cosmogenic muon activity at each site. This study finds that while there is a negligible increase in nEXO’s half-life sensitivity at 90% C.L. from improving the cosmogenic 137 Xe veto rejection procedure for SNOLAB, much higher daily muon rates at three other sites will have an adversely negative effect on nEXO’s sensitivity and would likely require further modifications to nEXO’s baseline design to reach nEXO’s scientific goals. Monte Carlo simulations of muons inducing 137 Xe backgrounds were conducted at four underground sites, SNOLAB, SURF, LNGS, and WIPP, each with roughly a factor of 10 times higher daily muon activity than the previous site. There were two primary inputs to these simulations. The first was sample data of cosmogenic muon flight through nEXO’s outer detector, a 12.8m tall and 12.3m wide cylindrical water tank lined with photomultiplier tubes to detect Cerenkov radiation, and all of the secondary interactions produced in the detector. The second input was a parametrization of 137 Xe* production tagging when 137 Xe de-excites and release prompt gammas, as well as accidental tagging caused by neutron capture on 63 Cu, 65 Cu, 19 F, and 1 H throughout the detector. Together, the number of backgrounds relative to the previous 2021 Sensitivity Paper [J. Phys. G 49, 015104 (2022)] was found at each of these four sites across three energy windows, from 400, 1400, and 2600 keV all up to 4600 keV, just above the end point of the prompt gamma spectrum for 137 Xe*. Using level curves for the sensitivity as 137 Xe backgrounds scale relative to baseline calculations, the half-life sensitivity at 90% C.L. for each of trial was found. Even with reduced 137 Xe backgrounds, the results for SNOLAB yielded neglible improvements in nEXO’s predicted sensitivity. On the contrary, the increased backgrounds for the three other considered sites yielded sensitivity estimates below nEXO’s previous projections. This study demonstrates that the shielding from cosmogenic muons at SNOLAB makes it highly preferred even amongst other world leading underground laboratories.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting Wagner’s Criteria to Predict Establishment and Retention of Alumina Scales on Ternary NiCrAl Alloys

Despite the advent of numerical modeling approaches and high-performance computing infrastructure, the design and development of corrosion-resistant high temperature alloys (> 500 °C) continue to be largely empirical and typically involve extensive experimentation. This is mainly due to the lack of a single unified physics-based model that can address the impact of multiple competing factors such as time, environment, alloy composition, microstructure, and geometry. The classical Wagner’s criteria have been foundational to estimate the minimum concentrations required of an oxide-forming element to establish and sustain a protective oxide scale. However, the formulation is primarily limited to lower-order alloy systems (binary alloys) and ignores the time dependence of subsurface compositional changes in the alloy. The lack of key data on the temperature and composition dependence of the solubility and transport of oxidants in multicomponent-multiphase alloys further exacerbates the problem. In the present work, a few of these limitations were addressed using a flux-based approach (FLAP) which tracks the spatiotemporal evolution of the fundamental flux balance between oxygen and the oxide-forming elements to enable the prediction of the formation of an external alumina scale in ternary NiCrAl alloys. In conclusion, the modeling results were validated with the literature findings and additional experimental work conducted in the present work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and prediction of intersection traffic violations using automated enforcement system data

We report that the automated enforcement system (AES) is an effective way of supplementing traditional traffic enforcement, and the traffic violation data from AES can also be effectively used for safety research. In this study, traffic violation data were used to analyze the influencing factors associated with traffic violations and to predict the probability of violations at intersections. The potential factors influencing violations include 24 independent factors related to time, space, traffic and weather. Results from a logistic model showed that the midday period, weekends, residential districts, collector roads, congested traffic conditions, high traffic flow, lower wind speed and low temperature would increase the probability of traffic violations. The probability of violations was predicted by the random forest algorithm, which was proven to be the best traffic violation prediction model among logistic regression, Gaussian naive Bayes, and support vector machine. Moreover, the proximity weighted synthetic oversampling technique (ProWSyn) method was applied to reduce the impact of the imbalance ratio (IR) and improve the model’s prediction performance. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and Precision-Recall (PR) curves illustrated that the random forest algorithm using oversampling data had the best classifier prediction performance than undersampling data. The area under curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) error with IR = 1 reached 0.914 and 0.0787, which showed the better performance of the random forest algorithm using ProWSyn in dealing with imbalanced traffic violation data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced tunability of two-dimensional electron gas on SrTiO 3 through heterostructuring

Two-dimensional electron gases (2DEGs) on the SrTiO 3 (STO) surface or in STO-based heterostructures have exhibited many intriguing phenomena, which are strongly dependent on the 2DEG-carrier density. In this paper, we report that the tunability of the 2DEG-carrier density is significantly enhanced by adding a monolayer LaTiO 3 (LTO) onto the STO. Ultraviolet (UV) irradiation induced maximum carrier density of the 2DEG in LTO/STO is increased by a factor of ~4 times, compared to that of the bare STO. By oxygen gas exposure, it becomes 10 times smaller than that of the bare STO. This enhanced tunability is attributed to the drastic surface property change of a polar LTO layer by UV irradiation and O 2 exposure. This indicates that the 2DEG controllability in LTO/STO is more reliable than that on the bare STO driven by defects, such an oxygen vacancy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗