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At least 109 records · Page 6

Prediction of Pushback Times and Ramp Taxi Times for Departures at Charlotte Airport

When optimizing the takeoff sequence and schedule for departures at busy airports, it is important to accurately predict the taxi times from gate to runway because those are used to calculate the earliest possible takeoff times. Several airports like Charlotte Douglas International Airport show relatively long taxi times inside the ramp area with large variations, with respect to the travel times in the airport movement area. Also, the pushback process times have not been accurately modeled so far mainly due to the lack of accurate data. The recent deployment of the integrated arrival, departure, and surface traffic management system at Charlotte airport by NASA enables more accurate flight data in the airport surface operations to be obtained. Taking advantage of this system, actual pushback times and ramp taxi times from historical flight data at this airport are analyzed. Based on the analysis, a simple, data-driven prediction model is introduced for estimating pushback times and ramp transit times of individual departure flights. To evaluate the performance of this prediction model, several machine learning techniques are also applied to the same dataset. The prediction results show that the data-driven prediction model is as good as the machine learning algorithms when comparing various prediction performance metrics.

airport surface operations↗

Fast-Time Simulation for Evaluating the Impact of Estimated Flight Ready Time Uncertainty on Surface Metering

NASA has been developing and demonstrating new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is surface metering enabled by a tactical surface scheduler to provide controllers with the pushback advisories for departures at gates. The tactical surface scheduler uses the estimated flight ready times provided by airlines, called Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), as input to calculate the target off-block times for pushback advisories. However, the EOBTs are often inaccurate and deviate from the actual flight ready times, which may reduce the benefits of surface metering. In this paper, a linear regression model is developed to model the EOBT uncertainty distribution over time based on actual EOBT data collected at Charlotte airport. This EOBT model is integrated with a tactical surface scheduler and a fast-time simulation tool. To evaluate the impact of the EOBT accuracy on airport surface operations, fast-time simulations are implemented for selected traffic scenarios under different levels of modelled EOBT accuracy. The simulation results show that the EOBT uncertainty affects several performance metrics related to the surface metering, such as gate hold, taxi time reduction, and target takeoff time predictability, which in turn influences ATD-2's scheduler performance.

tactical surface scheduler↗

Fast-Time Simulation for Evaluating the Impact of Estimated Flight Ready Time Uncertainty on Surface Metering

NASA has been developing and demonstrating new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is surface metering enabled by a tactical surface scheduler to provide controllers with the pushback advisories for departures at gates. The tactical surface scheduler uses the estimated flight ready times provided by airlines, called Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), as input to calculate the target off-block times for pushback advisories. However, the EOBTs are often inaccurate and deviate from the actual flight ready times, which may reduce the benefits of surface metering. In this paper, a linear regression model is developed to model the EOBT uncertainty distribution over time based on actual EOBT data collected at Charlotte airport. This EOBT model is integrated with a tactical surface scheduler and a fast-time simulation tool. To evaluate the impact of the EOBT accuracy on airport surface operations, fast-time simulations are implemented for selected traffic scenarios under different levels of modelled EOBT accuracy. The simulation results show that the EOBT uncertainty affects several performance metrics related to the surface metering, such as gate hold, taxi time reduction, and target takeoff time predictability, which in turn influences ATD-2's scheduler performance.

tactical surface scheduler↗

Note: Time-gated 3D single quantum dot tracking with simultaneous spinning disk imaging

We describe recent upgrades to a 3D tracking microscope to include simultaneous Nipkow spinning disk imaging and time-gated single-particle tracking (SPT). Simultaneous 3D molecular tracking and spinning disk imaging enable the visualization of cellular structures and proteins around a given fluorescently labeled target molecule. The addition of photon time-gating to the SPT hardware improves signal to noise by discriminating against Raman scattering and short-lived fluorescence. In contrast to camera-based SPT, single-photon arrival times are recorded, enabling time-resolved spectroscopy (e.g., measurement of fluorescence lifetimes and photon correlations) to be performed during single molecule/particle tracking experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Determination of Cell Doubling Times from the Return-on-Investment Time of Photosynthetic Vesicles Based on Atomic Detail Structural Models

Cell doubling times of the purple bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides during photosynthetic growth are determined experimentally and computationally as a function of illumination. For this purpose, energy conversion processes in an intracytoplasmic membrane vesicle, the chromatophore, are described based on an atomic detail structural model. The cell doubling time and its illumination dependence are computed in terms of the return-on-investment (ROI) time of the chromatophore, determined computationally from the ATP production rate, and the mass ratio of chromatophores in the cell, determined experimentally from whole cell absorbance spectra. The ROI time is defined as the time it takes to produce enough ATP to pay for the construction of another chromatophore. The ROI time of the low light-growth chromatophore is 4.5–2.6 h for a typical illumination range of 10–100 μmol photons m –2 s –1 , respectively, with corresponding cell doubling times of 8.2–3.9 h. Finally, when energy expenditure is considered as a currency, the benefit-to-cost ratio computed for the chromatophore as an energy harvesting device is 2–8 times greater than for photovoltaic and fossil fuel-based energy solutions and the corresponding ROI times are approximately 3–4 orders of magnitude shorter for the chromatophore than for synthetic systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Gamma-ray timing of redback PSR J2339–0533: Hints for gravitational quadrupole moment changes

We present the results of precision gamma-ray timing measurements of the binary millisecond pulsar PSR J2339–0533, an irradiating system of the “redback” type, using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We describe an optimized analysis method to determine a long-term phase-coherent timing solution spanning more than six years, including a measured eccentricity of the binary orbit and constraints on the proper motion of the system. A major result of this timing analysis is the discovery of an extreme variation of the nominal 4.6 hr orbital period P{sub orb} over time, showing alternating epochs of decrease and increase. We inferred a cyclic modulation of P{sub orb} with an approximate cycle duration of 4.2 yr and a modulation amplitude of ΔP{sub orb}/P{sub orb}=2.3×10{sup −7}. Considering different possible physical causes, the observed orbital-period modulation most likely results from a variable gravitational quadrupole moment of the companion star due to cyclic magnetic activity in its convective zone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Performance Model for Allocating the Parallelism in a Multigrid-in-Time Solver

The traditional way to numerically solve time-dependent problems is to sequentially march through time, solving for one time step and then the next. The parallelism in this approach is limited to the spatial dimension, which is quickly exhausted, causing the gain from using more processors to solve a problem to diminish. One approach to overcome this barrier is to use methods that are parallel in time. These methods have the potential to achieve dramatically better performance compared to time-stepping approaches, but achieving this performance requires carefully choosing the amount of parallelism devoted to space versus the amount devoted to time. Here, we present a performance model that, for a multigrid-in-time solver, makes the decision on when to switch to parallel-in-time and on how much parallelism to devote to space vs. time. In our experiments, the model selects the best parallel configuration in most of our test cases and a configuration close to the best one in all other cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

X-ray Spectral-Timing Pipeline to Investigate an Electron-Scattering Time Delay in Black Hole Accretion Disks [Slides]

The soft lag in black hole X-ray binaries (BHXRBs) refers to the time delay for the soft, thermal disk to respond to hard, variable coronal irradiation. This time lag increases from less than 1 ms to ~10 ms during the hard-to-soft state transition. Interpretations of soft lag trends appeal to changing the light-travel path via an evolving coronal height and/or inner accretion disk radius. Both interpretations neglect a time delay contribution from the reprocessing of irradiation inside the disk, where electron-scattering opacity dominates. A new theory considering a thermalization (electron scattering) time delay in the disk can plausibly produce ~10 ms time delays in the intermediate state. To further investigate the impacts of adding a time delay component from electron scattering in the disk, we are creating a spectral-timing pipeline that can analyze NICER (Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer) X-ray observations of BHXRBs in outburst. In the near future, we will apply this spectral timing pipeline to develop a reverberation lag model from simulations that include the thermalization time delay from electron scattering in the disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparison of GLONASS and GPS time transfers between two west European time laboratories and VNIIFTRI

The University of Leeds built a GPS/GLONASS receiver about five years ago and since then has provided continuous information about GLONASS time and its comparison with GPS time. For the last two years VNllFTRl and some other Soviet time laboratories have used Soviet-built GLONASS navigation receivers for time comparisons. Since June 1991, VNIIFTRI has been operating a GPS time receiver on loan from the BIPM. This offered, for the first time, an opportunity for direct comparison of time transfers using GPS and GLONASS. This experiment shows that even with relatively imprecise data recording and processing, in terms of time metrology, GLONASS can provide continental time transfer at a level of several tens of nanoseconds.

P. Daly↗

Implementation and Comparison of Acoustic Travel-Time Measurement Procedures for the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Time-Distance Helioseismology Pipeline

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite is designed to produce high-resolution Doppler velocity maps of oscillations at the solar surface with high temporal cadence. To take advantage of these high-quality oscillation data, a time-distance helioseismology pipeline has been implemented at the Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) at Stanford University. The aim of this pipeline is to generate maps of acoustic travel times from oscillations on the solar surface, and to infer subsurface 3D flow velocities and sound-speed perturbations. The wave travel times are measured from cross covariances of the observed solar oscillation signals. For implementation into the pipeline we have investigated three different travel-time definitions developed in time-distance helioseismology: a Gabor wavelet fitting (Kosovichev and Duvall, 1997), a minimization relative to a reference cross-covariance function (Gizon and Birch, 2002), and a linearized version of the minimization method (Gizon and Birch, 2004). Using Doppler velocity data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument on board SOHO, we tested and compared these definitions for the mean and difference travel-time perturbations measured from reciprocal signals. Although all three procedures return similar travel times in a quiet Sun region, the method of Gizon and Birch (2004) gives travel times that are significantly different from the others in a magnetic (active) region. Thus, for the pipeline implementation we chose the procedures of Kosovichev and Duvall (1997) and Gizon and Birch (2002). We investigated the relationships among these three travel-time definitions, their sensitivities to fitting parameters, and estimated the random errors they produce

Couvidat, S.↗

Taxi Time Prediction at Charlotte Airport Using Fast-Time Simulation and Machine Learning Techniques

Accurate taxi time prediction can be used for more efficient runway scheduling to increase runway throughput and reduce taxi times and fuel consumptions on the airport surface. This paper describes two different approaches to predicting taxi times, which are a data-driven analytical method using machine learning techniques and a fast-time simulation-based approach. These two taxi time prediction methods are applied to realistic flight data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) and assessed with actual taxi time data from the human-in-the-loop simulation for CLT airport operations using various performance measurement metrics. Based on the preliminary results, we discuss how the taxi time prediction accuracy can be affected by the operational complexity at this airport and how we can improve the fast-time simulation model for implementing it with an airport scheduling algorithm in real-time operational environment.

Lee, Hanbong↗

Prediction of Pushback Times and Ramp Taxi Times for Departures at Charlotte Airport

When optimizing the takeoff sequence and schedule for departures at busy airports, it is important to accurately predict the taxi times from gate to runway because those are used to calculate the earliest possible takeoff times. Several airports like Charlotte Douglas International Airport show relatively long taxi times inside the ramp area with large variations, with respect to the travel times in the airport movement area. Also, the pushback process times have not been accurately modeled so far mainly due to the lack of accurate data. The recent deployment of the integrated arrival, departure, and surface traffic management system at Charlotte airport by NASA enables more accurate flight data in the airport surface operations to be obtained. Taking advantage of this system, actual pushback times and ramp taxi times from historical flight data at this airport are analyzed. Based on the analysis, a simple, data-driven prediction model is introduced for estimating pushback times and ramp transit times of individual departure flights. To evaluate the performance of this prediction model, several machine learning techniques are also applied to the same dataset. The prediction results show that the data-driven prediction model is as good as the machine learning algorithms when comparing various prediction performance metrics.

Lee, Hanbong↗

Measurement of Test Time in the NASA Ames EAST Expansion Cone Facility in Entry 63 and Possible Techniques for Increasing Test Time

The Ames EAST facility and its modes of operation (expansion tube, expansion cone) are described. A buffer section may or may not be used between the driver and the driven tube. Previous expansion tube (without the cone) entries are reviewed. Test times of 4 to 5 microsec were achieved at shock speeds up to 11 km/s. The test conditions and results of the present entry (entry 63) (with the cone) are given. Test times were found to correlate roughly with the density ratio across the buffer gas - driven gas or driver - driven gas interface. Tests with a 12 inch long conical driver without a buffer yielded three runs with test times of ~8 km/s and 3 runs with test times of 4 to 6 microsecs. With a buffer, test times for 4 runs of ~9 microsecs and for 2 runs of 3 to 6 microsecs were obtained. Adding argon to the buffer was found not to improve the test time. Tests with a 30 inch long driver without a buffer yielded test times of 14+, ~10, 7.5 (2 runs) and 5.5 (2 runs) microsecs. Based on one shot, data for the 30 inch driver suggests that test times up to ~14 microseconds could be obtained. The repeatability of that shot, of course, must be established. Suggestions are given to increase test times further.

Electric arc shock tube↗

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗

Topology property analysis and application of stable time-delay regions for linear multiple time-delay systems

This study examines the relationship between the topology of stable time-delay regions and the stability analysis of an linear multiple time delay system. To analyze the topology of stable time-delay regions, we construct a function with a value equal to zero for the time-delay points on the boundaries of stable time-delay regions. The function is continuous and differentiable in the whole defining field with a global minimum of zero so that we can locate the boundaries by minimizing the value of the function. Based on the topology analysis, we proposed a performance validation approach for controllers that are designed to stabilize the system using feedback signals with time delays. The method based on the topology analysis is simple and reliable so that can deal with a linear time-invariant system with high order and multiple time delays (more than 3). The example case study shows that the above method is reliable and enables ultra-low latency coordination and control for the future power grid with ubiquitous power electronics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Continuous-time look-ahead flexible ramp scheduling in real-time operation

This paper develops a novel continuous-time look-ahead optimization model for co-optimizing balancing energy and flexible ramp products in real-time power systems operation. In addition, a continuous-time day-ahead operation model is developed to commit and schedule an adequate subset of generating units for providing balancing energy and ramping requirements in real-time operation. The up and down flexible ramp products are defined as continuous-time decision trajectories that continuously supply the real-time up and down ramping requirements of the system. The deliverability of flexible ramp products is secured through reserving the respective power requirements in generation capacity constraints of generating units. A function space solution method is proposed to reduce the dimensionality of day-ahead and real-time models through projecting them into finite-dimensional function spaces spanned by Bernstein polynomials, where the real-time operation decisions are modeled with a higher accuracy level than day-ahead decisions. Simulations are conducted on the IEEE-RTS system using CAISO load data, and the numerical results showcase the effectiveness of the proposed model in supplying the energy and flexible ramp requirements and avoiding ramping scarcity in the system, while reducing the operation costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Issues in measure-preserving three dimensional flow integrators: Self-adjointness, reversibility, and non-uniform time stepping

Properties of integration schemes for solenoidal fields in three dimensions are studied, with a focus on integrating magnetic field lines in a plasma using adaptive time stepping. It is shown that implicit midpoint (IM) and a scheme we call three-dimensional leapfrog (LF) can do a good job (in the sense of preserving KAM tori) of integrating fields that are reversible, or (for LF) have a “special divergence-free” (SDF) property. We review the notion of a self-adjoint scheme, showing that such schemes are at least second order accurate and can always be formed by composing an arbitrary scheme with its adjoint. We also review the concept of reversibility, showing that a reversible but not exactly volume-preserving scheme can lead to a fractal invariant measure in a chaotic region, although this property may not often be observable. We also show numerical results indicating that the IM and LF schemes can fail to preserve KAM tori when the reversibility property (and the SDF property for LF) of the field is broken. We discuss extensions to measure preserving flows, the integration of magnetic field lines in a plasma and the integration of rays for several plasma waves. The main new result of this paper relates to non-uniform time stepping for volume-preserving flows. We investigate two potential schemes, both based on the general method of Feng and Shang [Numer. Math. 71, 451 (1995)], in which the flow is integrated in split time steps, each Hamiltonian in two dimensions. The first scheme is an extension of the method of extended phase space, a well-proven method of symplectic integration with non-uniform time steps. This method is found not to work, and an explanation is given. The second method investigated is a method based on transformation to canonical variables for the two split-step Hamiltonian systems. This method, which is related to the method of non-canonical generating functions of Richardson and Finn [Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 54, 014004 (2012)], appears to work very well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗