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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization

The nuclear industry is beginning to see reactors shut down—even after their operating licenses have been extended—because they are not economically competitive with other energy sources. These early closures happen primarily due to economic reasons, despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs in order to prevent these early closures. One of the contributors to these economic reasons is the large operations and maintenance costs. This paper showcases recent research on advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization (PMO) for reducing NPP maintenance costs. Specifically, it focuses on the feedwater and condensate system (FWCS) for both pressurized- and boiling-water reactor (BWR) systems. The computerized maintenance management system (CMMS), which contains the plant’s digital record of all corrective maintenance (CM) and preventative maintenance (PM) work orders, provided the ground truth for locating potential faults and labeling the process data as either healthy or faulted. Various feature extraction techniques were used to further differentiate the faulted data from the healthy data. Through a cross-validation procedure, support vectors machines were used to label other test sets of process data as either healthy or faulted. With relatively few faults identified in the BWR system, the potential for PMO opens up, since an unnecessary amount of PM leads to inflated maintenance costs. The steps for PMO are summarized, from component health determinations to recommendations for action. An example of PMO assessment is presented for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization

Operation and maintenance costs for nuclear power plants are very large. Reactors are starting to shut down even after their operating licenses have been extended, because they are not price competitive compared to other energy sources. The nuclear industry is witnessing early closure of nuclear power plants due to economic reasons despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs to prevent these early closures. This paper showcases recent research into advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization to reduce these maintenance costs. This report focuses on the condensate and feedwater system for both pressurized and boiling water reactor systems. The computerized maintenance management system, which contains the plant’s digital record of all the corrective- and preventative-maintenance work orders, was used as a ground truth to locate potential faults and label the process data as healthy or faulty. Various feature extraction techniques were utilized to further differentiate the faults from the healthy data. Support vectors machines were used to categorize other test sets of process data as healthy or faulty through a cross validation procedure. Similar faults were not found within this system leading to preventative maintenance optimization. Unnecessary amounts of preventative maintenance lead to inflated maintenance costs. This paper summarizes the steps for preventative maintenance optimization from component health determination to recommendation for action. This optimization was completed for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Predicting novel substrates for enzymes with minimal experimental effort with active learning

Enzymatic substrate promiscuity is more ubiquitous than previously thought, with significant consequences for understanding metabolism and its application to biocatalysis. This realization has given rise to the need for efficient characterization of enzyme promiscuity. Enzyme promiscuity is currently characterized with a limited number of human-selected compounds that may not be representative of the enzyme's versatility. While testing large numbers of compounds may be impractical, computational approaches can exploit existing data to determine the most informative substrates to test next, thereby more thoroughly exploring an enzyme's versatility. Here, to demonstrate this, we used existing studies and tested compounds for four different enzymes, developed support vector machine (SVM) models using these datasets, and selected additional compounds for experiments using an active learning approach. SVMs trained on a chemically diverse set of compounds were discovered to achieve maximum accuracies of similar to 80% using similar to 33% fewer compounds than datasets based on all compounds tested in existing studies. Active learning-selected compounds for testing resolved apparent conflicts in the existing training data, while adding diversity to the dataset. Finally, the application of these algorithms to wide arrays of metabolic enzymes would result in a library of SVMs that can predict high-probability promiscuous enzymatic reactions and could prove a valuable resource for the design of novel metabolic pathways.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying Machine‐Learning Methods to Laser Acceleration of Protons: Lessons Learned From Synthetic Data

ABSTRACT In this study, we consider three different machine‐learning methods—a three‐hidden‐layer neural network, support vector regression, and Gaussian process regression—and compare how well they can learn from a synthetic data set for proton acceleration in the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration regime. The synthetic data set was generated from a previously published theoretical model by Fuchs et al. 2005 that we modified. Once trained, these machine‐learning methods can assist with efforts to maximize the peak proton energy, or with the more general problem of configuring the laser system to produce a proton energy spectrum with desired characteristics. In our study, we focus on both the accuracy of the machine‐learning methods and the performance on one GPU including memory consumption. Although it is arguably the least sophisticated machine‐learning model we considered, support vector regression performed very well in our tests.

Desai, Ronak↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Cartesian parametrization for the numerical analysis of material instability

We examine four parametrizations of the unit sphere in the context of material stability analysis by means of the singularity of the acoustic tensor. We then propose a Cartesian parametrization for vectors that lie a cube of side length two and use these vectors in lieu of unit normals to test for the loss of the ellipticity condition. This parametrization is then used to construct a tensor akin to the acoustic tensor. It is shown that both of these tensors become singular at the same time and in the same planes in the presence of a material instability. Furthermore, the performance of the Cartesian parametrization is compared against the other parametrizations, with the results of these comparisons showing that in general, the Cartesian parametrization is more robust and more numerically efficient than the others.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Momentum imaging spectrometer for molecular fragmentation dynamics induced by pulsed electron beam

A momentum imaging spectrometer has been built for studying the electron impact molecular fragmentation dynamics. The setup consists of a pulsed electron gun and a time of flight system as well as a two-dimensional time and position sensitive multi-hit detector. The charged fragments with kinetic energy up to 10 eV can be detected in 4π solid angles and their three-dimensional momentum vectors can be reconstructed. The apparatus is tested by electron impact ionization of Ar and dissociative ionization of CO{sub 2}. By analyzing the ion-ion coincidence spectra, the complete and incomplete Coulomb fragmentation channels for CO{sub 2}{sup 2+} and CO{sub 2}{sup 3+} are identified. The kinetic energy release (KER) and angular correlation for the two-body breakup channel CO{sub 2}{sup 2+*}→ O{sup +}+ CO{sup +} are reported. The peak value of total KER is found to be 6.8 eV which is consistent with the previous photoion-photoion coincidence studies, and the correlation angle of O{sup +} and CO{sup +} is also explicitly determined to be 172.5°.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-630: Predictive Modeling of Mortality, Tumor Control, and Normal Tissue Complications After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: While rates of local control have been well characterized after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), less data are available characterizing survival and normal tissue toxicities, and no validated models exist assessing these parameters after SBRT. We evaluate the reliability of various machine learning techniques when applied to radiation oncology datasets to create predictive models of mortality, tumor control, and normal tissue complications. Methods: A dataset of 204 consecutive patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) at the University of Pennsylvania between 2009 and 2013 was used to create predictive models of tumor control, normal tissue complications, and mortality in this IRB-approved study. Nearly 200 data fields of detailed patient- and tumor-specific information, radiotherapy dosimetric measurements, and clinical outcomes data were collected. Predictive models were created for local tumor control, 1- and 3-year overall survival, and nodal failure using 60% of the data (leaving the remainder as a test set). After applying feature selection and dimensionality reduction, nonlinear support vector classification was applied to the resulting features. Models were evaluated for accuracy and area under ROC curve on the 81-patient test set. Results: Models for common events in the dataset (such as mortality at one year) had the highest predictive power (AUC = .67, p < 0.05). For rare occurrences such as radiation pneumonitis and local failure (each occurring in less than 10% of patients), too few events were present to create reliable models. Conclusion: Although this study demonstrates the validity of predictive analytics using information extracted from patient medical records and can most reliably predict for survival after SBRT, larger sample sizes are needed to develop predictive models for normal tissue toxicities and more advanced machine learning methodologies need be consider in the future.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-C-BRA-05: Delineating High-Dose Clinical Target Volumes for Head and Neck Tumors Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Purpose: To develop and test population-based machine learning algorithms for delineating high-dose clinical target volumes (CTVs) in H&N tumors. Automating and standardizing the contouring of CTVs can reduce both physician contouring time and inter-physician variability, which is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in H&N radiotherapy. Methods: Twenty-five node-negative patients treated with definitive radiotherapy were selected (6 right base of tongue, 11 left and 9 right tonsil). All patients had GTV and CTVs manually contoured by an experienced radiation oncologist prior to treatment. This contouring process, which is driven by anatomical, pathological, and patient specific information, typically results in non-uniform margin expansions about the GTV. Therefore, we tested two methods to delineate high-dose CTV given a manually-contoured GTV: (1) regression-support vector machines(SVM) and (2) classification-SVM. These models were trained and tested on each patient group using leave-one-out cross-validation. The volume difference(VD) and Dice similarity coefficient(DSC) between the manual and auto-contoured CTV were calculated to evaluate the results. Distances from GTV-to-CTV were computed about each patient’s GTV and these distances, in addition to distances from GTV to surrounding anatomy in the expansion direction, were utilized in the regression-SVM method. The classification-SVM method used categorical voxel-information (GTV, selected anatomical structures, else) from a 3×3×3cm3 ROI centered about the voxel to classify voxels as CTV. Results: Volumes for the auto-contoured CTVs ranged from 17.1 to 149.1cc and 17.4 to 151.9cc; the average(range) VD between manual and auto-contoured CTV were 0.93 (0.48–1.59) and 1.16(0.48–1.97); while average(range) DSC values were 0.75(0.59–0.88) and 0.74(0.59–0.81) for the regression-SVM and classification-SVM methods, respectively. Conclusion: We developed two novel machine learning methods to delineate high-dose CTV for H&N patients. Both methods showed promising results that hint to a solution to the standardization of the contouring process of clinical target volumes. Varian Medical Systems grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm for Planetary Boundary Layer Height Estimation Using AERI Measurement Data

Accurately determining the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is important since it can affect the climate, weather, and air quality. Ground-based infrared hyperspectral remote sensing is an effective way to obtain this parameter. Compared with radiosonde measurements, its temporal resolution is much higher. In this study, a method to retrieve the PBL height (PBLH) from the ground-based infrared hyperspectral radiance data is proposed based on machine learning. In this method, the channels that are sensitive to temperature and humidity profiles are selected as the feature vectors, and the PBLHs derived from radiosonde are taken as the true values. The support vector machine (SVM) is applied to train and test the data set, and the parameters are optimized in the process. The data set collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) from 2012 to 2015 is analyzed. The instruments used in this letter include Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), Vaisala CL31 ceilometer, and radiosonde. It shows that the root mean square error (RMSE) between the PBLHs calculated by the proposed method using AERI data and those from radiosonde data can be within 370 m, and the square correlation coefficient (SCC) is greater than 0.7. Compared with the PBLHs derived from the ceilometer, it can be found that the new method is more stable and less affected by clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fully Distributed Multi-Material Magnetic Sensing Structures for Multiparameter DAS Applications

This dissertation demonstrates the first of its kind distributed magnetic field sensor based on a fiber optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) scheme. Ferromagnetic nickel and Metglas® were dispersed internally within a fiber optic preform and then drawn on an in-house fiber optic draw tower to lengths in the kilometers. Due to the close proximity of the ferromagnetic metals and fiber optic core, the magnetostrictive strain response of the ferromagnetic materials when exposed to a magnetic field would perturbate within the fiber cladding and transfer that strain, internally, to the fiber optic core. Strain resulting from the magnetostrictive effect allows the DAS based sensor to accurately translate strain into readable magnetic field data. Due to the high sensitivity seen in this sensor design, multiparameter sources, acoustic and magnetic fields, were tested and validated and a three dimensional magnetic-field vector sensor was proposed. Numerical analysis of the novel sensor design was first implemented using COMSOL Multiphysics, where inputs such as magnetostrictive element shape, size, distance, and number were first investigated. Upon optimizing system constraints, the sensor design was further modified such that single mode operation was consistent across multiple fiber draws while retaining high strain transfer from the ferromagnetic elements to the fiber optic core. Ferromagnetic material selection was evaluated as a function of the saturation magnetostriction constants and a total of 4 modules were used to fully characterize the complex physics involved in this sensor design. All fabrication and testing were performed in-house using a full scale 3-story fiber draw tower and custom environmental testing stations to imitate naturally occurring events such as magnetic or acoustic point sources. A unique stacking method was used to embed ferromagnetic nickel and Metglas® into a fiber optic preform which when combined with a custom fiber draw process resulted in consistent multi-material fibers drawn to lengths of 1-km. In-house testing facilities included different types of electromagnetic generators, in addition to a soil test bed, and an outdoor test bed which allowed 100 meters of fiber to be tested simultaneously. All tested sensors demonstrated high strain transfer capabilities on the order of 0.01-10 μϵ depending on the materials used, ferromagnetic rod number, and core to metal spacing. Due to the sensitivity of the system the difference between AC and DC was distinct, and directional magnetostriction was studied. Transverse and longitudinal magnetic wave propagation was controlled through a solenoid and rectangular Helmholtz coil, both built in-house. A three-dimensional magnetic field vector sensor was proposed due to the success of the magnetic field sensor, and a design was proposed and initially tested to validate direction as a function of field strength and distance. To summarize, this dissertation explores the first fully distributed magnetic field sensor using DAS based techniques and one of the first multi-material fiber draw processes which can produce consistent single mode fiber up to 1-km. Due to extensive FEA modeling, multiple iterations of the magnetic sensor were fully characterized and an equation describing the relationship between sensor design and strain transfer has been created and validated experimentally. Multi-parameter tests including acoustic and magnetic fields were implemented and an algorithm was developed to separate the mixed signals. Finally, a test was performed to demonstrate the feasibility of sensing magnetic fields directionally. Cumulative results demonstrate a high-quality sensor alternative to current designs which may surpass other magnetic sensors due to innate multi-parameter capabilities, in addition to the inexpensive production cost and extremely long operating lengths.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic Traffic Modeling Using Probe Vehicle Data: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) captures an orderly relationship among traffic flow, density, and speed at the network level. It is a simple yet powerful tool for modeling traffic dynamics in large urban networks with broad application in traffic control and management. However, empirically derived MFDs in urban regions require high-resolution traffic data from the network. Having the network flow and vehicular density estimated at the (granular) census tract level using vehicle probe data, we apply machine learning methods to predict the MFDs across U.S. urban areas and capture the impacts of location-specific input features on the network flow–density relationships at a large scale. The results show that, among the four tested machine learning approaches (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network), XGBoost delivers the best performance in predicting network traffic flow based on vehicular density and location attributes. Using interaction Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP) values and partial correlation analysis, we examine the factors influencing MFD shapes across different locations. Our empirical findings reveal that across U.S. urban areas, network topology, transportation infrastructure, and land use are primary factors shaping MFD curves, while demand and trip-related factors play a lesser role. Specifically, higher ranking roads, centrality, and development levels correlate positively with network capacity and critical density, whereas negative associations are observed for network connectivity, mixed-use development, and road roughness levels.

Jin, Ling↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-470: Beam Performance of the Radiance 330 Proton Therapy System

Purpose: The ProTom Radiance 330 proton radiotherapy system is a fully functional, compact proton radiotherapy system that provides advanced proton delivery capabilities. It supports three-dimensional beam scanning with energy and intensity modulation. A series of measurements have been conducted to characterize the beam performance of the first installation of the system at the McLaren Proton Therapy Center in Flint, Michigan. These measurements were part of the technical commissioning of the system. Select measurements and results are presented. Methods: The Radiance 330 proton beam energy range is 70–250 MeV for treatment, and up to 330 MeV for proton tomography and radiography. Its 3-D scanning capability, together with a small beam emittance and momentum spread, provides a highly efficient beam delivery. During the technical commissioning, treatment plans were created to deliver uniform maps at various energies to perform Gamma Index analysis. EBT3 Gafchromic films were irradiated using the Planned irradiation maps. Bragg Peak chamber was used to test the dynamic range during a scan in one layer for high (250 MeV) and Low (70 MeV) energies. The maximum and minimum range, range adjustment and modulation, distal dose falloff (80%–20%), pencil beam spot size, spot placement accuracy were also measured. The accuracy testing included acquiring images, image registration, receiving correction vectors and applying the corrections to the robotic patient positioner. Results: Gamma Index analysis of the Treatment Planning System (TPS) data vs. Measured data showed more than 90% of points within (3%, 3mm) for the maps created by the TPS. At Isocenter Beam Size (One sigma) < 3mm at highest energy (250 MeV) in air. Beam delivery was within 0.6 mm of the intended target at the entrance and the exit of the beam, through the phantom. Conclusion: The Radiance 330 Beam Performance Measurements have confirmed that the system operates as designed with excellent clinical performance specifications. Hovakim Nazaryan, Vahagn Nazaryan and Fuhua Wang are employees of ProTom International, Inc. who contributed to the development and completed the technical commissioning of the Radiance 330 proton therapy delivery system manufactured by ProTom International.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fiducial and differential cross-section measurements of electroweak $W\gamma jj$ production in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

The observation of the electroweak production of a W boson and a photon in association with two jets, using pp collision data at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre of mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV, is reported. The data were recorded by the ATLAS experiment from 2015 to 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 . This process is sensitive to the quartic gauge boson couplings via the vector boson scattering mechanism and provides a stringent test of the electroweak sector of the Standard Model. Events are selected if they contain one electron or muon, missing transverse momentum, at least one photon, and two jets. Multivariate techniques are used to distinguish the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process from irreducible background processes. The observed significance of the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process is well above six standard deviations, compared to an expected significance of 6.3 standard deviations. Fiducial and differential cross sections are measured in a fiducial phase space close to the detector acceptance, which are in reasonable agreement with leading order Standard Model predictions from MADGRAPH5+PYTHIA8 and SHERPA. The results are used to constrain new physics effects in the context of an effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of Adding Twitter Data to Aid Drought Depiction: Case Study in Colorado

The use of social media, such as Twitter, has changed the information landscape for citizens’ participation in crisis response and recovery activities. Given that drought progression is slow and also spatially extensive, an interesting set of questions arise, such as how the usage of Twitter by a large population may change during the development of a major drought alongside how the changing usage facilitates drought detection. For this reason, contemporary analysis of how social media data, in conjunction with meteorological records, was conducted towards improvement in the detection of drought and its progression. The research utilized machine learning techniques applied over satellite-derived drought conditions in Colorado. Three different machine learning techniques were examined: the generalized linear model, support vector machines and deep learning, each applied to test the integration of Twitter data with meteorological records as a predictor of drought development. It is found that the integration of data resources is viable given that the Twitter-based model outperformed the control run which did not include social media input. Eight of the ten models tested showed quantifiable improvements in the performance over the control run model, suggesting that the Twitter-based model was superior in predicting drought severity. Future work lies in expanding this method to depict drought in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

ON ESTIMATING FORCE-FREENESS BASED ON OBSERVED MAGNETOGRAMS

It is a common practice in the solar physics community to test whether or not measured photospheric or chromospheric vector magnetograms are force-free, using the Maxwell stress as a measure. Some previous studies have suggested that magnetic fields of active regions in the solar chromosphere are close to being force-free whereas there is no consistency among previous studies on whether magnetic fields of active regions in the solar photosphere are force-free or not. Here we use three kinds of representative magnetic fields (analytical force-free solutions, modeled solar-like force-free fields, and observed non-force-free fields) to discuss how measurement issues such as limited field of view (FOV), instrument sensitivity, and measurement error could affect the estimation of force-freeness based on observed magnetograms. Unlike previous studies that focus on discussing the effect of limited FOV or instrument sensitivity, our calculation shows that just measurement error alone can significantly influence the results of estimates of force-freeness, due to the fact that measurement errors in horizontal magnetic fields are usually ten times larger than those in vertical fields. This property of measurement errors, interacting with the particular form of a formula for estimating force-freeness, would result in wrong judgments of the force-freeness: a truly force-free field may be mistakenly estimated as being non-force-free and a truly non-force-free field may be estimated as being force-free. Our analysis calls for caution when interpreting estimates of force-freeness based on measured magnetograms, and also suggests that the true photospheric magnetic field may be further away from being force-free than it currently appears to be.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗