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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative performance assessment of air-source and ground-source heat pumps using CO₂ and R-410A with water well integration: A simulation study

This study investigates the performance and feasibility of heat pump systems for residential space heating in cold climates, with a particular focus on ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) with water wells. Four configurations are modeled and compared, a CO 2 air-source heat pump (ASHP), an R-410A ASHP, a CO 2 GSHP with water well integration, and an R-410A ground-source heat pump with water well integration. System simulations are conducted at both equipment and whole-building levels, followed by a nationwide analysis across ten representative cities using EnergyPlus. Results show that water-well-coupled GSHPs maintain approximately 87 % of their efficiency and 85.5 % of heating capacity as ambient temperature drops from 47 °F/8.3 °C to −15 °F/-26.1 °C, whereas ASHPs retain only 55 % efficiency and 44.5 % capacity. R-410A systems achieve higher efficiency, while CO 2 systems provide significant environmental advantages, including reduced risks of groundwater contamination from refrigerant leakage. On average, the CO 2 GSHPs deliver 35–45 % heating energy savings relative to ASHPs and demonstrate strong potential as a replacement for gas furnaces in cold climates. This work represents a systematic comparative assessment of CO 2 and R-410A air-source and ground-source heat pumps with water well integration. In conclusion, the findings highlight the technical viability, environmental benefits and deployment potential of CO 2 GSHPs, offering a pathway toward efficient and sustainable residential heating solutions in diverse U.S. climates.

CO 2 GSHP↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulated annealing of reduced magnetohydrodynamic systems

Theory of simulated annealing (SA), a method for equilibrium and stability analyses for Hamiltonian systems, is reviewed. The SA explained in this review is based on a double bracket formulation that derives from Hamiltonian structure. In addition to general theoretical aspects, the explicit formulation as well as numerical applications are presented. Both finite and infinite degree-of-freedom systems are treated, in particular, the heavy top, a toy model mimicking low-beta reduced magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and low- and high-beta reduced MHD. Furthermore, the numerical results successfully demonstrate the usefulness of SA for equilibrium and stability analyses. At the same time, the results raise some future issues that are discussed in the paper.

Poisson Bracket↗

DOE OSTI2026

infrastore [SWR-26-077]

Infrastore is time-series storage for energy-systems simulations, backed by HDF5 + SQLite, with Rust, Python, Julia, gRPC, and CLI bindings. It is a Rust library for managing time-series data in power-systems and energy simulations. Numerical arrays are persisted in HDF5, and the metadata associating each array with its owning component lives in SQLite. Identical arrays are stored once and shared through content addressing. It ships native Rust, Python (PyO3), and Julia (C ABI) interfaces, the infrastore command-line tool, and a read-only gRPC server with a Rust client. Documentation: https://natlabrockies.github.io/infrastore/latest/ — start with the Quick Start or the Architecture.

Thom, Daniel [National Laboratory of the Rockies (↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-Static Time Series Fatigue Simulation for PV Inverter Semiconductors with Long-Term Solar Profile

Power system simulations with long-term data tend to have large time steps varying from one second to a few minutes. However, for PV inverter semiconductors, the minimum thermal stresses cycle is with line frequency. This requires the time step of the fatigue simulation to be much smaller than the line period. This small time step results in poor simulation speed, especially for long-term simulations. This paper proposes a fast fatigue simulation for inverter semiconductors using the quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation concept. The fatigue analysis typically focuses on the peak and valley values of a strain and neglect the transients from peaks to valleys. The proposed simulation utilizes this property of fatigue analysis and calculates the steady state of the semiconductor junction temperature only. The resulting time step of the fatigue simulation is 15 minutes, which is consistent with the solar dataset without losing accuracy.

fast simulation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power System Resilience Considering Hurricane Storms and Generator Step-up Transformers

Power system resilience describes the system’s ability to withstand and recover quickly from unexpected power outages due to extreme events. As society’s electrification continues at a rapid rate, it is imperative electric infrastructure is designed and operated with extra security. This work studies the impact of severe hurricane storms on the power system located along the United States’ Eastern Seaboard. Specific focus is designated to steady state system operation and loss of large generation step up power transformers. A series of phasor domain power system simulations are conducted to determine the critical point at which the system loses steady state operability. Additionally, active power load shedding and generator dispatching are studied as mitigation and recovery strategies. Results indicate generator dispatching as an effective proactive mitigation strategy and load shedding as an effective recovery strategy.

Liu, Yilu↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parallelization techniques for quantum simulation of fermionic systems

Mapping fermionic operators to qubit operators is an essential step for simulating fermionic systems on a quantum computer. We investigate how the choice of such a mapping interacts with the underlying qubit connectivity of the quantum processor to enable (or impede) parallelization of the resulting Hamiltonian-simulation algorithm. It is shown that this problem can be mapped to a path coloring problem on a graph constructed from the particular choice of encoding fermions onto qubits and the fermionic interactions onto paths. The basic version of this problem is called the weak coloring problem. Taking into account the fine-grained details of the mapping yields what is called the strong coloring problem, which leads to improved parallelization performance. A variety of illustrative analytical and numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the amount of improvement for both weak and strong coloring-based parallelizations. Our results are particularly important for implementation on near-term quantum processors where minimizing circuit depth is necessary for algorithmic feasibility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the cloud radiative bias at Macquarie Island in the ACCESS-AM2 model

Abstract. As a long-standing problem in climate models, large positive shortwave radiation biases exist at the surface over the Southern Ocean, impacting the accurate simulation of sea surface temperature, atmospheric circulation, and precipitation. Underestimations of low-level cloud fraction and liquid water content are suggested to predominantly contribute to these radiation biases. Most model evaluations for radiation focus on summer and rely on satellite products, which have their own limitations. In this work, we use surface-based observations at Macquarie Island to provide the first long-term, seasonal evaluation of both downwelling surface shortwave and longwave radiation in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Atmosphere-only Model version 2 (ACCESS-AM2) over the Southern Ocean. The capacity of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) product to simulate radiation is also investigated. We utilize the novel lidar simulator, the Automatic Lidar and Ceilometer Framework (ALCF), and all-sky cloud camera observations of cloud fraction to investigate how radiation biases are influenced by cloud properties. Overall, we find an overestimation of +9.5±33.5 W m−2 for downwelling surface shortwave radiation fluxes and an underestimation of -2.3±13.5 W m−2 for downwelling surface longwave radiation in ACCESS-AM2 in all-sky conditions, with more pronounced shortwave biases of +25.0±48.0 W m−2 occurring in summer. CERES presents an overestimation of +8.0±18.0 W m−2 for the shortwave and an underestimation of -12.1±12.2 W m−2 for the longwave in all-sky conditions. For the cloud radiative effect (CRE) biases, there is an overestimation of +4.8±28.0 W m−2 in ACCESS-AM2 and an underestimation of -7.9±20.9 W m−2 in CERES. An overestimation of downwelling surface shortwave radiation is associated with an underestimated cloud fraction and low-level cloud occurrence. We suggest that modeled cloud phase is also having an impact on the radiation biases. Our results show that the ACCESS-AM2 model and CERES product require further development to reduce these radiation biases not just in shortwave and in all-sky conditions, but also in longwave and in clear-sky conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generation and validation of comprehensive synthetic weather histories using auto-regressive moving-average models

As energy system design moves to more complex methods of optimization including machine learning there is a significant need for more weather data than is available. One method to solve this is using synthetic data models such as the auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model which has been frequently utilized to create such data. This paper looks at extending the ARMA algorithm to generate solar components through the use of clearsky detrending, maintaining vector relationships and by leveraging physical relationships. The method for the creation of entirely synthetic weather data files including key weather variables for energy system analysis is presented. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of energy system simulations utilizing both real and synthetic data is made using NREL’s System Advisor Model. Whilst good agreement is made for the solar variables, and other weather variables, ARMA methods often fail to capture the standard deviation and skew of annual weather distributions. Vector-ARMA is shown to maintain correlations between variables and thus generate data sets that perform similarly in energy system design. Here, it is finally shown that the ARMA method fails to preserve day-today correlations in weather variables and thus over-predicts optimal energy storage by 21% for a residential solar application.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building Re-tuning Simulator

The Building Re-tuning Simulator (BRS) is a Re-tuning focused modeling and building automation system simulation environment.

Fernandez, Nick↗

DOE OSTI2022

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A real-time energy and cost efficient vehicle route assignment neural recommender system

Here, this paper presents a neural network recommender system algorithm for assigning vehicles to routes based on energy and cost criteria. In this work, we applied this new approach to efficiently identify the most cost-effective medium and heavy duty truck (MDHDT) powertrain technology, from a total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective, for given trips. We employ a machine learning based approach to efficiently estimate the energy consumption of various candidate vehicles over given routes, defined as sequences of links (road segments), with little information known about internal dynamics, i.e. using high level macroscopic route information. A complete recommendation logic is then developed to allow for real-time optimum assignment for each route, subject to the operational constraints of the fleet. We show how this framework can be used to (1) efficiently provide a single trip recommendation with a top-k vehicles star ranking system, and (2) engage in more general assignment problems where n vehicles need to be deployed over m (m ≤ n) trips. This new assignment system has been deployed and integrated into the POLARIS. Transportation System Simulation Tool for use in research conducted by the Department of Energy's Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium (SMART, 2024).

Energy consumption↗

DOE OSTI2022

Protection and Restoration Solutions to Reliable and Resilient Integration of Grid-connected PV Installations and Distributed Energy Resources: Design, Testbed, Proof of Work and Impact Studies (Final Report)

To gain a better understanding of the complex transients in a utility grid with a large number of solar PV installations coupled by PWM inverters during the protection and restoration period of the power grid, in this project a kW-level experimental system with dominating inverter-based resources and a hardware-in-loop simulation system with transmission and distribution models, as well as several SEL protective relays have been built and used. The major research findings of the project are summarized below in two perspectives: Experimental research: A self-organized ultra-high frequency solitary waveform is discovered and demonstrated in the hardware experimental system. Despite the familiarities, such a solitary waveform is distinct from any harmonics, transient, or resonance waves in that, it is 1) non-dispersive over time and space, 2) not associated with any active source or the linear superposition of sources, 3) half-cycle asymmetric, 4) not responding to filters or change of system characteristic resonance frequency, 5) ubiquitous as it occurs simultaneously everywhere in the system from DC supply, power lines, and the utility grid, and 6) explosive through tripping the protection or damaging susceptible devices or circuits. Analytical study: The nature of such a new waveform and an analytical explanation of its formation are studied based on related physics and non-linear science principles, with the following highlights: 1) such a new waveform follows the solutions to the Non-linear Schrödinger equation, so the classic linear perturbation theory is unable to explain or predict such a unique waveform as confirmed with the research team of RTDS; 2) the critical condition of occurrence of such a waveform is derived, which indicates that the breakings of solitary wave is a system synchronous issue between the utility grid in the 60Hz phasor domain and duty-ratio modulation of DC sources in the inverter switching frequency domain; 3) such a waveform carries energy mass so it could be detrimental; 4) such a waveform is deceiving as it is not readily detectable in the energy propagation direction by the primary protection equipment, while it is detrimental in the perpendicular direction of energy propagation, i.e. voltage direction. Thus, it has more likely challenges to the second primary equipment and devices, particularly at the weakest link and point such as aging insulation and inappropriate setting of susceptible devices. Therefore, such a waveform can be easily ignored in the aftermath investigation. The intellectual merits: The experimental discovery reveals certain unfamiliar transient phenomena that could challenge the integration of large-scale grid-connected solar PV installation during the group ride-through period of solar PV installations, commissioning of large-solar farms, or dramatic change of solar radiation conditions. Particularly, the research findings suggest that the occurrence of the unfamiliar transient phenomena is uniquely associated with the inverter-based solar PV installation, which is less likely to happen for rotary energy systems. The physics and non-linear science-based research work laid down an analytical path to the challenging transient stability problems including those that have been observed currently and future calls. Both experimental and analytical research results explain the limitation of many current research effects including some DoE research undertakings as well as possible solutions. The broader impacts: The research outcome of the project advances the understanding of the possible transient problems for the integration of inverter-based solar PV installation. It also highlights the theoretical and technical barriers for applying the conventional theory and technology to design and implement countermeasures against their adverse impacts of the large-scale solar PV installation and operation on grid reliability and security. More broadly, the research outcomes have shed some light on the open, fundamental challenges in the integration of large-scale solar photovoltaic energy into current and next-generation power grids across the country, and worldwide. The advanced physics and non-linear science-based analysis open up a path to harmonization of the renewables for societal energy needs via building a resilient and sustainable electric power infrastructure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the influence of particle distribution on force and torque statistics using hierarchical machine learning

An accurate representation of hydrodynamic force and torque experienced by every particle in a distribution can be obtained from particle resolved (PR) simulations. These unique quantities are influenced by the deterministic position of surrounding particles. However, systems simulated with this methodology are typically limited to particles due to the involved computational cost. This resource requirement is a major bottleneck in analyzing the effect of variations in particle distribution. Here, this article attempts to address this bottleneck by availing relatively inexpensive deep learning models. The surrogate models that we employ in this article use a physics‐based hierarchical framework and symmetry‐preserving neural networks to achieve robustness with limited training data. This article first performs additional generalizability tests on PR data of distinct distributions that are not involved in the training process. The models are then deployed on several different particle distributions. Impact of clustering and structure on the observed statistics are investigated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Self-Organizing Map-Based Resilience Quantification and Resilient Control of Distribution Systems Under Extreme Events

Due to climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution system operators (DSO) to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks. To embed resilience into DSO's decision-making, resilience needs to be first quantified and then integrated into the system-level optimization. Therefore, this paper first develops a novel self-organizing map (SOM) based method (called SomRes) to quantify the time-varying resilience index of a system that can leverage the powerful classification property of SOMs and removes some of the disadvantages of subjective weight assignment methods. Using SomRes, a resilient resource allocation and operational dispatch algorithm is further developed to enhance system resilience against extreme events by considering the SomRes resilience index directly as the feedback. Here, the proposed resilience quantification approach is benchmarked with a state-of-the-art approach and the efficacy of the proposed resilient dispatch algorithm is demonstrated through several deterministic and statistical case studies on the IEEE 123-bus distribution system. Simulation studies show that the proposed SomRes quantification method is an appropriate indicator of system resilience, and the resilient resource allocation and dispatch strategy can significantly reduce critical load shedding under varying event propagation scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Numerical and boundary condition effects on the prediction of detonation engine behavior using detailed numerical simulations

High-fidelity numerical simulations of an experimental rotating detonation engine with discrete fuel/air injection were conducted. A series of configurations with different feed-plenum pressures but with constant equivalence ratio were studied. Detailed chemical kinetics for the hydrogen/air system is used. A resolution study for the full rotating detonation engine (RDE) system simulation is also conducted. Two kinds of boundary conditions, a total pressure boundary and a constant mass flow rate boundary, are used to assess the effects of the inlet boundary. As mass flow rate is increased, the total pressure boundary causes more error in the axial pressure distribution while the constant mass flow rate gives a better solution for all cases ran. The simulations confirm experimental findings, and reproduce qualitative as well as some of the quantitative trends. These results demonstrate that a) fuel-air mixing is highly non-uniform within the detonation chamber, leading to variations in local equivalence ratio, b) the fuel and oxidizer injectors experience significant backflow as the detonation wave passes over, but recover at different rates which further augments the inefficiencies in mixing, and c) parasitic combustion in the mixing region makes the detonation wave weak by extending the reaction zone across the wave.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rock Physics-Based Data Assimilation of Integrated Continuous Active-Source Seismic and Pressure Monitoring Data during Geological Carbon Storage

Summary There has been substantial controversy concerning the role of geological carbon storage (GCS) in sequestering anthropogenic carbon emissions to mitigate climate change and global warming. Arguments center on the inability to monitor a geological storage site precisely and continuously, especially highlighting the associated costs and spatiotemporal trade-offs when using conventional subsurface monitoring techniques (well logs, core samples, chemical tracers, and 4D seismics). Active surveillance of GCS sites is essential for managing and mitigating potential leaks but is also required by regulation. With the goal of enhancing the monitoring capability at GCS sites, we present a rock physics-based joint data assimilation model to study a popular GCS site at Cranfield, Mississippi, USA. Synthetic continuous active-source seismic monitoring (CASSM) data (in the form of Vp and Qp measurements) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are assimilated with an ensemble of reservoir realizations to monitor gas saturation and reservoir pressure changes over a period of 100 years. Synthetic seismic attributes are generated using rock physics models (RPMs) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are extracted from the ground truth. Two assimilation methods, ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS), are tested in an observation system simulation experiment (OSSE) environment to assess the prediction accuracy of the individual and composite observation systems. The joint monitoring system achieves more accurate estimates of gas saturation and pressure, across the time span from start of injection to end of forecast, as compared to a single type of monitoring tool and irrespective of data assimilation algorithm choice. These results indicate that jointly assimilated data from two types of sensors (in this case, crosswell seismic and downhole pressure) may lead to a more risk-reducing monitoring design. One would expect that more data, vis-à-vis inclusion of a new sensor type, will improve the accuracy of any GCS monitoring system. However, from a practical standpoint, one important question is whether such a gain in accuracy is worth the additional cost associated with the new sensor. This paper focuses on quantifying the gain in accuracy, such that a practitioner can answer this question.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2023

Programmable Quantum Simulations of Bosonic Systems with Trapped Ions

Trapped atomic ion crystals are a leading platform for quantum simulations of spin systems, with programmable and long-range spin-spin interactions mediated by excitations of phonons in the crystal. In this study, we describe a complementary approach for quantum simulations of bosonic systems using phonons in trapped-ion crystals, here mediated by excitations of the trapped-ion spins. The scheme enables a high degree of programability across a dense graph of bosonic couplings, utilizing long-lived collective phonon modes in a trapped-ion chain. As such, it is well suited for tackling hard problems such as boson sampling and simulations of long-range bosonic and spin-boson Hamiltonians.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗