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At least 109 records · Page 6

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NASA NTRS2018

NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept

An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.

Carvalho, David↗

NASA NTRS1984

Predicting dangerous ocean waves with spaceborne synthetic aperture radar

It is pointed out that catastrophes, related to the occurrence of strong winds and large ocean waves, can consume more lives and property than most naval battles. The generation of waves by wind are considered, Pierson et al. (1955) have incorporated statistical concepts into a wave forecast model. The concept of an 'ocean wave spectrum' was introduced, with the wind acting independently on each Fourier component. However, even after 30 years of research and debate, the generation, propagation, and dissipation of the spectrum under arbitrary conditions continue to be controversial. It has now been found that spaceborne SAR has a surprising ability to precisely monitor spatially evolving wind and wave fields. Approaches to overcome certain weaknesses of the SAR method are discussed, taking into account the second Shuttle Imaging Radar experiment, and a possible long-term solution provided by Spectrasat. Spectrasat should be a low-altitude (200 to 250 km) satellite with active drag compensation.

Beal, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Multi-Period Importance Sampling Strategy for Stochastic Economic Dispatch

Power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy (e.g., wind power) require sophisticated approaches to optimize system performance due to uncertainty in short-term system generation capacity. In this paper, we combine a data-driven analog scenario selection method with importance sampling to create a novel scenario construction approach for two-stage stochastic economic dispatch problems with a large number of wind farms on a network. The proposed method produces scenarios with realistic physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. We show how to extend this method to multi-period operations and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating economic dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

data-driven forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Bulk Algorithm to Predict Turbulent Fluxes over Dry and Wet Bare Soils

Measurements made in the Columbia River basin (Oregon) in an area of irregular terrain during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign are used to develop an optimized hybrid bulk algorithm to predict the surface turbulent fluxes from readily measured or modeled quantities over dry and wet bare or lightly vegetated soil surfaces. The hybrid (synthetic) algorithm combines (i) an aerodynamic method for turbulent flow, which is based on the transfer coefficients (drag coefficient and Stanton number), roughness lengths, and Monin–Obukhov similarity; and (ii) a modified Priestley–Taylor (P-T) algorithm with physically based ecophysiological constraints, which is essentially based on the surface energy budget (SEB) equation. Soil heat flux in the latter case was estimated from measurements of soil temperature and soil moisture. In the framework of the hybrid algorithm, bulk estimates of the momentum flux and the sensible heat flux are derived from a traditional aerodynamic approach, whereas the latent heat flux (or moisture flux) is evaluated from a modified P-T model. Direct measurements of the surface fluxes (turbulent and radiative) and other ancillary atmospheric/soil parameters made during WFIP2 for different soil conditions (dry and wet) are used to optimize and tune the hybrid bulk algorithm. The bulk flux estimates are validated against the measured eddy-covariance fluxes. We also discuss the SEB closure over dry and wet surfaces at various time scales based on the modeled and measured fluxes. Although this bulk flux algorithm is optimized for the data collected during the WFIP2, a hybrid approach can be used for similar flux-tower sites and field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing mechanical response of CO 2 storage into a depleted carbonate reef using a site-scale geomechanical model calibrated with field tests and InSAR monitoring data

Geomechanical risks of injection have raised concerns regarding secure CO 2 storage. In this work, a combined monitoring and modeling approach is used to assess the stress changes and surface uplift associated with CO 2 injection into a depleted carbonate reef of the Michigan basin. A site-scale geomechanical model is built by assigning mechanical properties of formations using well-log and experimental data. Gravity load is applied to the model to estimate the vertical component of stress as well as different lateral boundary displacement scenarios to estimate horizontal stresses. We used a poroelastic pressure-dependent model (instead of a linear elastic mechanical earth model) to calibrate initial stresses using hydraulic fracture test data measured at depleted reservoir status. Multi-phase fluid flow-geomechanical simulations are performed to estimate the poroelastic response during (1) primary depletion (2) field-scale CO 2 injection phase (3) a hypothetical forecast scenario in which well bottom hole pressure (BHP) reach 45000 KPa. The predicted surface uplift is less than 1 mm at the end of the field-scale CO 2 injection phase which is in good agreement with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) uplift measurement. Although the InSAR data shows an insignificant uplift, hydromechanical modeling of injection shows that CO 2 injection still causes reservoir deformation emphasizing the role of carbonate overburden and reservoir formation mechanical properties and limited size of reef on diminishing the surface deformation. Modeling indicates poroelastic response of caprock matters to estimate uplift. The lower permeability of the top two layers provides additional barrier to large uplift. Also, history of subsidence due to production should be accounted to predict uplift due to a follow up injection correctly. This report shows the significance of combining a calibrated geomechanical model with field measured stresses and monitoring data to be used as a tool to ensure the safety of CO 2 storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Importance of Radiative Transfer Models in Atmospheric Remote Sensing

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a significant role in the development of satellite instruments for remote sensing applications. These models simulate electromagnetic radiation's propagation through the atmosphere, providing valuable insights into atmosphere-radiation interactions. RTMs facilitate the optimization of satellite instrument designs, ensuring their ability to measure targeted atmospheric and surface properties accurately. Moreover, they aid in simulating instrument’s measurements under various atmospheric conditions, enabling calibration and validation processes to enhance data quality and reliability. RTMs are extensively used in the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), to generate synthetic observations. By incorporating RTMs into OSSE, we can assess the potential impact of future satellite missions, sensor configurations, and data assimilation techniques. This approach allows for the optimization of satellite instruments and constellations and the evaluation of their influence on weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and other Earth science applications. Another crucial application area of RT models is data assimilation, where they play a fundamental role in combining satellite observations with numerical models to improve atmospheric and environmental predictions. RTMs provide the link between observed radiances and atmospheric parameters, enhancing the accuracy of numerical models and generating more reliable forecasts for weather events, air quality assessments, and climate projections. Moreover, adapting RT models to capture the intricate radiation interactions within the Planetary Boundary Layer will significantly contribute to improving weather forecasting and climate change projections. Current community radiative transfer (RT) models are primarily developed and optimized for operational data assimilation of satellite observations. These models excel at assimilating satellite data into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecast accuracy. However, their focus on data assimilation limits their suitability for other important applications, such as satellite instrument development, OSSE, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) studies. Moreover, for PBL studies, RT models need to be adapted to capture the intricate radiation interactions within this crucial atmospheric layer. Developing RT models that can represent the PBL's unique characteristics, such as surface interactions, will contribute significantly to understanding and predicting weather phenomena, air quality, and climate dynamics. This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of RT models and highlights their limitations concerning satellite instrument development, OSSE, and PBL studies. Addressing these shortcomings requires concerted efforts to enhance RT models' capabilities and expand their applications beyond data assimilation. By investing in research and development to improve these

Isaac Moradi↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch

A significant difficulty associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DC optimal power flow problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

94 GMLC - Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium↗

NASA NTRS2009

Chemical Source Inversion using Assimilated Constituent Observations in an Idealized Two-dimensional System

We present a source inversion technique for chemical constituents that uses assimilated constituent observations rather than directly using the observations. The method is tested with a simple model problem, which is a two-dimensional Fourier-Galerkin transport model combined with a Kalman filter for data assimilation. Inversion is carried out using a Green's function method and observations are simulated from a true state with added Gaussian noise. The forecast state uses the same spectral spectral model, but differs by an unbiased Gaussian model error, and emissions models with constant errors. The numerical experiments employ both simulated in situ and satellite observation networks. Source inversion was carried out by either direct use of synthetically generated observations with added noise, or by first assimilating the observations and using the analyses to extract observations. We have conducted 20 identical twin experiments for each set of source and observation configurations, and find that in the limiting cases of a very few localized observations, or an extremely large observation network there is little advantage to carrying out assimilation first. However, in intermediate observation densities, there decreases in source inversion error standard deviation using the Kalman filter algorithm followed by Green's function inversion by 50% to 95%.

Tangborn, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1976

Seasat-A oceanographic data system and users

The Seasat-A system is reviewed with emphasis on data retrieval, processing and dissemination plans. Attention is paid to the sensors of the Seasat satellite including the compressed pulse radar altimeter, the coherent synthetic aperture imaging radar, the microwave wind scatterometer, and the scanning visible/infrared radiometer. Particular emphasis is placed on a particular set of experiments: the Navy's Fleet Numerical Weather Control will receive Seasat data in real time and process the data into products that will be used in weather and sea condition forecasts.

Mccandless, S. W., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Moving-Wave Implementation in WRF to Study the Impact of Surface Water Waves on the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract While numerous modeling studies have focused on the interaction of ocean surface waves with the atmospheric boundary layer, most employ idealized waves that are either monochromatic or synthetically generated from a theoretical wave spectrum, and the atmospheric solvers are typically incompressible. To study wind–wave coupling in real-world scenarios, a model that can simulate both realistic meteorological and wave conditions is necessary. In this paper we describe the implementation of a moving bottom boundary condition into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for large-eddy simulation applications. We first describe the moving bottom boundary conditions within WRF’s pressure-based vertical coordinate system. We then validate our code with idealized test cases that have analytical solutions, including flow over a monochromatic wave with and without viscosity. Finally, we present results from turbulent flows over a moving monochromatic wave with different wave ages, and demonstrate satisfactory agreement of the wave growth rate with results from the literature. We also compare atmospheric stress and wind parameters from two physically equivalent cases. The first specifies a wind moving in the same direction as a propagating wave, while the second involves a stationary wave with the wind adjusted such that the wind relative to the wave is the same as in the first case. Results indicate that the velocity and Reynolds stress profiles for the two cases match, further validating the moving bottom implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

CO 2 plume evolution in a depleted natural gas reservoir: Modeling of conformance uncertainty reduction over time

Uncertainty in the long-term fate of CO 2 injected for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a significant barrier to the adoption of GCS as a greenhouse-gas emission-mitigation for industry and regulatory agencies alike. Here, we present a modeling study that demonstrates that the uncertainty in forecasts of GCS site performance decreases over time as monitoring data are used to update operational models. We consider a case study of GCS in a depleted natural gas reservoir, with CO 2 injection occurring over 20 years, with a 50-year post-injection site care period. We constructed a detailed model to generate the actual model output, which is considered synthetic observation data. A series of simpler operational models based on limited data and assumptions about how an operator would model such a site are then run and compared against actual model output at specific monitoring points after one year, two years, etc. The operational model is updated and improved using the synthetic observation data from the actual model at the same time intervals. Model parameter values and model features needed to be updated over time to improve matches to the actual model. These kinds of model adjustments would be a normal part of reservoir engineering and site management at GCS sites. Uncertainty in two key measures related to site performance decreases with time: extent of the CO 2 plume up-dip migration, and radial extent of the pressure pulse. This conclusion should help allay the concerns of industry and regulators about uncertainty in long-term fate of CO 2 at GCS sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – I. DESI-lite spectra

ABSTRACT The 1D Ly α forest flux power spectrum P1D is sensitive to scales smaller than a typical galaxy survey, and hence ties to the intergalactic medium’s thermal state, suppression from neutrino masses, and new dark matter models. It has emerged as a competitive framework to study new physics, but also has come with various challenges and systematic errors in analysis. In this work, we revisit the optimal quadratic estimator for P1D, which is robust against the relevant problems such as pixel masking, time evolution within spectrum, and quasar continuum errors. We further improve the estimator by introducing a fiducial power spectrum, which enables us to extract more information by alleviating the discreteness of band powers. We meticulously apply our method to synthetic Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) spectra and demonstrate how the estimator overcomes each challenge. We further apply an optimization scheme that approximates the Fisher matrix to three elements per row and reduces computation time by 60 per cent. We show that we can achieve per cent precision in P1D with 5-yr DESI data in the absence of systematics and provide forecasts for different spectral qualities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prospects for Astrobiology and Technosignature Searches with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map sources in multiband colour--variability space. We present a prototype coherence-based framework for astrobiology and technosignature searches, in which candidates are treated as structured departures from natural astrophysical manifolds rather than isolated photometric outliers. We illustrate the framework with three simulated cases: five Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) surface/activity states, a grid of 649 synthetic exoplanet spectra with vegetation-red-edge-like (VRE) perturbations, and 500 synthetic multiband light curves, each projected into LSST-like observable space and analysed through colour geometry, chromatic variability, and cross-band coherence. Key results include a full-colour Mahalanobis distance $D\approx5.1$ for the weak-coma KBO state (${\sim}5σ$ in the five-dimensional colour vector), an indicative VRE coherence threshold at $f_{\rm crit}\approx0.13$, and an idealised stacking forecast reaching $5σ$ under optimistic assumptions. We show, using a small Gaia~DR3 stellar sample, that stellar colour and photometric stability may inform the prioritisation of Galactic regions for applying such coherence diagnostics.

Kovačević, Andjelka B. [Belgrade U.] (ORCID:000000↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of microwave satellite observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones

The potential of microwave observations in improving the weather forecasts is limited by the accuracy of all-sky radiative transfer calculations. We introduce a novel Bayesian MonteCarlo technique to improve the assimilation of microwave observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones. The BMCI technique eliminates the need for a forward model in the data assimilation system. The technique includes three steps, (i) generating a comprehensive dataset using in-situ cloud measurements and atmospheric profiles, (ii) generating synthetic ATMS observations from the training dataset, and (iii) using real observations to estimate the geophysical variables over the rainbands of tropical cyclones. The retrieved profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and cloud water content as well assurface information such as SST were then assimilated into the model. The results show that assimilating the BMCI retrievals can influence the dynamical features of the cyclone, including a stronger warm core, a symmetric eye, and vertically aligned wind columns.

Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

NASA NTRS2008

GEO/SAMS - The Geostationary Synthetic Aperture Microwave Sounder

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has for many years operated two weather satellite systems, the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite system (POES), using low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellites, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES), using geostationary earth orbiting (GEO) satellites. (Similar systems are also operated by other nations.) The POES satellites have been equipped with both infrared (IR) and microwave (MW) atmospheric sounders, which makes it possible to determine the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity in the troposphere even under cloudy conditions. Such satellite observations have had a significant impact on weather forecasting accuracy, especially in regions where in situ observations are sparse. In contrast, the GOES satellites have only been equipped with IR sounders, since it has not been feasible to build a large enough antenna to achieve sufficient spatial resolution for a MW sounder in GEO. As a result, GOES soundings can only be obtained in cloud free areas and in the less important upper atmosphere, above the cloud tops. This has hindered the effective use of GOES data in numerical weather prediction. Full sounding capabilities with the GOES system is highly desirable because of the advantageous spatial and temporal coverage that is possible from GEO. While POES satellites provide coverage in relatively narrow swaths, and with a revisit time of 12-24 hours or more, GOES satellites can provide continuous hemispheric coverage, making it possible to monitor highly dynamic phenomena such as hurricanes.

Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.↗