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At least 109 records · Page 6

Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers

Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.

Compound flooding↗

Significant Rural Contributions to Severe Coastal Urban Flooding Through Flow Connectivity

Coastal cities are increasingly threatened by hurricane-induced compound flooding. However, the relative contributions of rainfall-surge interactions and other flood drivers, such as runoff from surrounding rural and local impervious areas, in shaping urban flooding remain unclear. Here, we use a multi-scale Earth system modeling framework to disentangle the contributions of diverse flooding drivers. The results show that urban flooding is primarily affected by topographic factors (low elevation, flat slopes, and localized flow constrictions), rather than increased runoff from their impervious surfaces. Importantly, runoff from rural areas contributes more to severely flooded urban areas with inundation depth exceeding 1.7 m than local runoff. Although rainfall–surge interactions and sea-level rise exacerbate inundation along the coastline, over 90% of the compounding effects are absorbed by wetlands. By resolving flooding processes across scales and components, this study emphasizes the role of runoff from surrounding rural areas in shaping zones of severe urban flooding.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures

Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France’s ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As proof-of-concept, we describe the optimization and maintenance of the staged alert system that has guided COVID-19 policy in a large US city (Austin, Texas) since May 2020. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reliability-based hull geometry optimisation of a point-absorber wave energy converter with power take-off structural reliability objectives

Recent studies have focused on optimising wave energy converter (WEC) designs, maximising their power performance and techno-economic feasibility. Reliability has yet to be fully considered in these formulations, despite its impact on cost and performance. In this study, this gap is addressed by developing a reliability-based design optimisation framework for WEC hull geometries to explore the trade-off between power performance and power take-off (PTO) system damage equivalent loading (DEL). Optimised hull geometries for two sites are considered (from the centre of the North Sea and off the west coast of Norway), and two directions of motions (heave and surge). Results indicate that site characteristics affect the potential power production and DEL for an optimal WEC design. These are also affected by the direction of motion for power extraction, which also significantly changes optimal hull shape characteristics. Optimal surging WEC designs have edges facing oncoming wave directions, while heaving WECs have pointed bottoms, both to streamline movement. Larger, more convex WECs result in greater power production and DEL, while smaller, more concave WECs result in lesser power production and DEL. These findings underline the importance of considering WEC hull geometry in early design processes to optimise cost, power production, and reliability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

OC6 Phase I: Investigating the underprediction of low-frequency hydrodynamic loads and responses of a floating wind turbine

Phase I of the OC6 project is focused on examining why offshore wind design tools underpredict the response (loads/motion) of the OC5-DeepCwind semisubmersible at its surge and pitch natural frequencies. Previous investigations showed that the underprediction was primarily related to nonlinear hydrodynamic loading, so two new validation campaigns were performed to separately examine the different hydrodynamic load components. In this paper, we validate a variety of tools against this new test data, focusing on the ability to accurately model the low-frequency loads on a semisubmersible floater when held fixed under wave excitation and when forced to oscillate in the surge direction. However, it is observed that models providing better load predictions in these two scenarios do not necessarily produce a more accurate motion response in a moored configuration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Metal Oxide Varistor (MOV) Lifetime Estimation with Impulse-Based Testing in PV Inverter Systems

Surges caused by lightning strikes could damage electrical components in photovoltaic (PV) systems. Metal oxide varistors (MOVs) are commonly used to protect PV systems from lightning strikes. This paper proposes a holistic impulse-based MOV lifetime estimation framework. The impacts of peak current and fault duration induced by lightning events are considered in the MOV lifetime estimation framework. Moreover, the impact of different parameter combinations on MOV lifetime estimation is analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed work is validated in a PV inverter test system developed in MATLAB/Simulink.

lifetime estimation↗

Impact of Timing in the Design Process on Students’ Application of Design for Additive Manufacturing Heuristics

The goal of this work is to study the way student designers use design for additive manufacturing (DfAM) rules or heuristics. It can be challenging for novice designers to create successful designs for additive manufacturing (AM), due to its recent surge in popularity and lack of formal education or training. A study was carried out to investigate the way novices apply DfAM heuristics when they receive them at different points in the design process. A design problem was presented to students, and three different groups of student participants were given a lecture on DfAM heuristics at three different points in the design process: before the initial design, between the initial design and redesign, and after the redesign. The novelty and quality of each of the resulting designs were evaluated. Results indicate that although the DfAM heuristics lecture had no impact on the overall quality of the designs generated, participants who were given the heuristics lecture after the initial design session produced designs that were better-suited for 3D printing in the second phase of the design activity. However, receiving this additional information appears to prevent students from creatively iterating upon their initial designs, as participants who received heuristic information between the design sessions experienced a decrease in novelty between the two sessions. Additionally, receiving the heuristics lecture increased all students’ perceptions of their ability to perform DfAM-related tasks. Furthermore, these results validate the practicality of design heuristics in lecture form as AM training tools while also emphasizing the importance of iteration in the design process.

computer-aided design↗

Control of hybrid boosting in highly diluted internal combustion engines

A novel hybrid system enabling both flexible supercharging and limited torque assist is studied to mitigate transient response challenges of a turbocharged spark ignition engine equipped with low pressure exhaust gas recirculation. The hybrid system, called a power split supercharger (SC), is configured with a planetary gear set that splits the supercharging power between a small low-voltage electric motor and the engine crankshaft. The air path controller relies on the coordination of four actuators on the engine side and three low-level actuators on the hybrid boosting device. A decentralized control scheme is used in this work, in which the master–slave structure of the boost pressure controller decreases the turbo-lag associated with exhaust gas recirculation, while minimizing the SC operation for fuel economy. A vector reference governor is used to prevent compressor surge during engine tip-outs. In addition, the desired intake manifold pressure is modified to provide time for evacuating the exhaust gas recirculation and avoiding misfires when transitioning to low load, while the hybrid capability of the power split SC is used to recuperate the unwanted generated power. All controllers are validated on both a mean value engine model and a high-fidelity engine model. Practical challenges of implementing the vector reference governor to the highly nonlinear engine air path with pressure pulsations originating from the engine reciprocation are discussed and some solutions are proposed.

Engineering↗

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Load Mitigating Feedback Control of WECs

This report outlines the development of load-mitigating feedback control for wave energy converters. A simple, self-tuning multi-objective controller is demonstrated in simulation for a 3-DOF (surge, heave, pitch) point absorber. In previous work, the proposed control architecture has been shown to be effective in experiment for a variety of device archetypes for the single objective of the maximization of electrical power capture: here this architecture is extended to reduce device loading as well. In particular, PTO actuation forces and the minimization of fatigue damage (determined from the sum of wave-exerted and PTO forces) are considered as additional objectives for the self-tuning controller. This controller is demonstrated for two similar, but distinct systems: one described by the identified linear models from physical testing of the WaveBot device, and another based upon a WEC-Sim simulation that expands upon boundary element method data from the WaveBot device. In both cases, because the power surface is consistently fairly flat in the vicinity of control parameters that maximize power capture in contrasting sea-states, it is found to be generally possible to mitigate either fatigue damage or PTO load. However, PTO load is found to conflict with fatigue damage in some sea-states, limiting the efficacy of control objectives that attempt to mitigate both simultaneously. Additionally, coupling between the surge and pitch DOFs also limits the extent to which fatigue damage can be mitigated for both DOFs in some sea-states. Because control objectives can be considered a function of the sea-state (e.g., load mitigation may not be a concern until the sea is sufficiently large) a simple transition strategy is proposed and demonstrated. This transition strategy is found to be effective with some caveats: firstly, it cannot circumvent the aforementioned objective contradictions. Secondly, this objective transition is too slow to act as a system constraint, and objective thresholds must thus be considered quite conservatively. Improvement of the adjustment strategy is demonstrated through the addition of an integral term. Selection of well-performing transition parameters can be a function of sea-state. While a simple selection procedure is proposed, it is non-optimal, and a more robust selection procedure is suggested for future work.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Hydropower Infrastructure - LAkes, Reservoirs, and RIvers (HILARRI), v4

HILARRI is a database of links between major datasets of operational hydropower dams and powerplants, and inland water bodies. These connections are critical for conducting large-scale analysis of hydropower infrastructure and their associated natural and engineered water systems. Features include: – Dams from the National Inventory of Dams (2025) and the Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD v1.3) – Hydropower plants from the Existing Hydropower Assets dataset (EHA 2025) – Power plants that are listed in the 2025 U.S. Hydropower Development Pipeline Data or were listed in previous versions of the dataset These hydropower infrastructure features are linked to several major datasets that provide hydrologic and hydraulic information relevant for analysis of hydropower systems that includes the integral water resources. That information comes from: – Products from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) – NHDPlusV2 Medium Resolution river network flowlines, – NHD waterbodies (limited to lakes and reservoirs), – NHD Watershed Boundary Dataset (HUC12-level for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)) – NHD High Resolution waterbodies – HydroLAKES water bodies (lakes and reservoirs) – LAGOS-US lakes and reservoirs – EPA National Lakes Assessment (2007, 2012, 2017, and 2022) – The Reservoir Sedimentation Database (RESSED) – EPA SuRGE sampling locations Unique identifiers are used to facilitate joining to the original full datasets. For example, characteristics of NHD flowlines such as estimated average flow rate can be joined from the NHDPlusV2 dataset to a dam or power plant listed in HILARRI based on the ID field, “COMID”, that is common to both datasets. HILARRI only includes basic information about identifiers, location, and data quality or usage notes. It does not contain the attributes or time series data associated with these sites. The HILARRI dataset incorporates information from several datasets to facilitate more effective and accurate analysis of hydropower infrastructure and their associated waterbodies. For example, dams were checked against the most recent American Rivers Dam Removal Database to identify and flag facilities that may no longer exist. Additionally, dams that are listed multiple times in the NID are identified and flagged to avoid double-counting when analyzing and summarizing information. Other quality flags include certainty of operational hydropower (i.e., if one or more datasets indicates hydropower at a particular location), whether an associated water body is accurate or composed of multiple polygons, or whether there is a known issue with reported characteristics in one of the underlying datasets. These additional data flags are designed to increase confidence in data usage for individual to large-scale analyses.

Hansen, Carly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000193280838)↗

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of Nonlinear Difference-Frequency Wave Excitation on a Semisubmersible Offshore-Wind Platform with Bichromatic-Wave CFD Simulations: Preprint

The natural surge and pitch frequencies of semisubmersible offshore wind platforms are typically designed to be below the wave frequencies to avoid direct excitation. However, surge or pitch resonance can be excited by the nonlinear low-frequency loads generated by irregular incident waves. Second-order potential-flow models with added Morison drag have been found to underpredict this low-frequency excitation and response. As part of the OC6 project, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed to enable a better understanding of the low-frequency loads and the limitations of lower-fidelity models. The focus of the current paper is to set up a computationally cost-effective CFD simulation of a fixed semisubmersible platform to investigate nonlinear difference-frequency loads and establish the corresponding uncertainty in the results. Due to the high computing cost, CFD simulations of irregular waves can be challenging. Instead, simulations were performed with bichromatic waves having a shorter repeat period. A preliminary comparison with Quadratic Transfer Functions from second-order potential-flow theory shows that CFD models consistently predict higher nonlinear wave loads at the difference frequency, likely due to flow separation and viscous drag not accounted for in potential-flow theory.

2nd order↗

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Small Scale WEC Performance Modeling Data

Small Scale WEC Performance Modeling Data is performance data from downscaled models of common WEC devices and their calculated performance outputs. This data is used by the Small WEC interactive modeling tool hosted by PRIMRE. The devices include a point absorber, a two-body point absorber (RM3), an oscillating surge device (OSWEC), and an attenuator type device (McCabe Wave Pump). One of the primary use cases for this work is to give an easy way to compare power output for a variety of WECs and model sizes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

RITE Gen5 KHPS Levelized Cost of Energy

Levelized Cost of Energy analysis for Verdant Power Gen5 KHPS utilizing annualized AEP based on actual energy generation at the RITE Project during 2020-21. The WEC devices analyzed include attenuator, point absorber, oscillating wave surge converter, oscillating water column, overtopping/terminator device, submerged pressure differential, bulge wave, and rotating mass type wave energy converter devices. The CEC devices analyzed include horizontal axis turbine, vertical axis turbine, oscillating hydrofoil, enclosed tips (Venturi), Archimedes screw, and tidal kite type current energy converter devices.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗