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At least 109 records · Page 6

POET: POlarimeters for Energetic Transients

POET (Polarimeters for Energetic Transients) is a Small Explorer mission concept proposed to NASA in January 2008. The principal scientific goal of POET is to measure GRB polarization between 2 and 500 keV. The payload consists of two wide FoV instruments: a Low Energy Polarimeter (LEP) capable of polarization measurements in the energy range from 2-15 keV and a high energy polarimeter (Gamma-Ray Polarimeter Experiment - GRAPE) that will measure polarization in the 60-500 keV energy range. Spectra will be measured from 2 keV up to 1 MeV. The POET spacecraft provides a zenith-pointed platform for maximizing the exposure to deep space. Spacecraft rotation will provide a means of effectively dealing with systematics in the polarization response. POET will provide sufficient sensitivity and sky coverage to measure statistically significant polarization for up to 100 GRBs in a two-year mission. Polarization data will also be obtained for solar flares, pulsars and other sources of astronomical interest.

Hill, J. E.↗

PoET: Polarimeters for Energetic Transients

This presentation focuses on PoET (Polarimeters for Energetic Transients): a Small Explorer mission concept proposed to NASA in January 2008. The principal scientific goal of POET is to measure GRB polarization between 2 and 500 keV. The payload consists of two wide FoV instruments: a Low Energy Polarimeter (LEP) capable of polarization measurements in the energy range from 2-15 keV and a high energy polarimeter (Gamma-Ray Polarimeter Experiment - GRAPE) that will measure polarization in the 60-500 keV energy range. Spectra will be measured from 2 keV up to 1 MeV. The PoET spacecraft provides a zenith-pointed platform for maximizing the exposure to deep space. Spacecraft rotation will provide a means of effectively dealing with systematics in the polarization response. PoET will provide sufficient sensitivity and sky coverage to measure statistically significant polarization for up to 100 GRBs in a two-year mission. Polarization data will also be obtained for solar flares, pulsars and other sources of astronomical interest.

McConnell, Mark↗

A New Statistical Estimate of the Radar Coverage of the Low Earth Orbit Debris Environment

For over three decades, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar, Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), and Haystack Auxiliary (HAX) radar assets to collect data on the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment. Each radar, with its unique beamwidth, altitude and inclination coverage, and limiting size threshold, operates in a beam park mode to statistically sample the orbital debris population in LEO. Provided that these assets are shared with other users, the orbital debris data collection is not continuous; rather, intermittent data collects are acquired and sent to the NASA ODPO. To understand the sampling process conducted by each radar over time and any related observational biases, a Statistical Confirmation of Radar Uniformity or Bias (SCRUB) code has been implemented to model the coverage of these assets for informing future operations, as well as usage of the data collected from these ground-based sensors. For this analysis, Right Ascension of the Ascending Node (RAAN) is used as a metric to measure statistical coverage. A complete survey of the LEO environment is understood to be measurements that sufficiently sample all values of RAAN for each altitude-inclination pair visible from the radar asset. Regions of incompleteness or statistical bias can help inform future observation campaigns. The SCRUB tool evaluates the coverage of the LEO environment, not by examining individual objects that may pass through a sensor’s field of view (FOV), but by determining which orbit planes pass through the FOV. Once a pointing geometry for a radar site, observation time, and range extent are configured by the user, SCRUB computes the inclinations and altitudes that are visible by the sensor. For each inclination-altitude pair, there is a distinct pair of possible RAAN values, corresponding to the ascending and descending orbit passing through that point in the sensor cone. Repeating this process for all points in the beam, and for multiple time periods during an observation window, creates a matrix of all inclination-altitude-RAAN combinations that are visible during a sensor run. This process can then be repeated for all observations within a year (for an annual survey), propagating all the RAAN values to a common epoch, typically the start of a calendar year, and combining the observations to assemble a full estimate of the RAAN coverage of the LEO environment. This RAAN coverage can then be analyzed for uniformity of sampling, within a certain inclination-altitude pair, or between larger regions of the space environment. This paper provides a general overview of the radar assets utilized by ODPO, typical analysis data products assuming circular orbits, and a discussion of the algorithms that feed between modeling and measurement operations. Following the description of the algorithm, estimates of coverage using HUSIR radar data collected from multiple years are developed and compared.

Chris L Ostrom↗

A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process

A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process is presented. The core of this testing procedure consists of generating an equivalent ensemble which approximates a true ensemble. Formation of an equivalent ensemble is accomplished through segmenting a sufficiently long time history of a random process into equal, finite, and statistically independent sample records. The weak statistical stationarity is ascertained based on the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble averages. Comparison of these averages with their corresponding time averages over a single sample record leads to a heuristic estimate of the ergodicity of a random process. Specific variance tests are introduced for evaluating the statistical independence of the sample records, the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble autocorrelations, and the ergodicity. Examination and substantiation of these procedures were conducted utilizing turbulent velocity signals.

Sadeh, W. Z.↗

Compensation for atmospheric effects in LANDSAT data

Preprocessing algorithms were developed to remove or reduce the variations in multispectral data caused by variations in Sun angle and by changes in the atmospheric aerosol and water vapor levels. The two most significant algorithms developed by using mathematical models to define interrelations between the required multiplicative and additive correction factors so that just a few statistical characteristics of a LANDSAT distribution model would be sufficient to drive the mathematical model and to calculate the preprocessing corrections are examined. These are the atmospheric correction (ATCOR) computer program and the XSTAR haze correction algorithm. Neither the ATCOR nor the XSTAR algorithm provides an explicit compensation for the effects of changing LANDSAT view angle. Development efforts are underway to address this aspect of the preprocessing problem.

Lambeck, P. F.↗

The optical structure of X-ray globular clusters

CTIO 4-m prime-focus plates of eight globular clusters containing bright X-ray sources have been obtained. Plates in several colors (principally U and B) of each cluster have been digitized. A maximum symmetry method for determining the center of a globular cluster image is described and applied to each cluster in order to determine the cluster center with an accuracy of above 1.0 arc sec. Surface brightness profiles have been derived for seven clusters and fitted with King (1966, 1980) models to yield core radii within about 10 percent. These determinations of the cluster centers and core radii are sufficiently accurate to allow Grindlay et al. (1984) to statistically measure the mass of the globular cluster X-ray sources. Two clusters (NGC 6624 and M15) show significant excesses of light in their cores over the best-fit King model, in agreement with the results of Djorgovski and King (1984). The significance of these excesses, as well as the lack of any dependence of globular cluster structural parameters on color, is discussed.

Hertz, P.↗

X-ray observations of the Vela pulsar: Statistics and spectrum

The Vela pulsar was observed in the range 2-60 keV by the GSFC proportional counter experiment onboard OSO-8 with temporal resolution sufficient to make possible a sensitive search for pulsed X-rays at the radio pulsar period. A statistical analysis yielded 8 per cent as the 3 sigma upper limit on the pulsed fraction. The energy spectrum is fit well by a structureless power law with number index 2.21 + or - 0.2 and absorption by a hydrogen column density of N sub H equals 2.9 + or - 2.0 times ten to the twenty-second power per sq.cm.

Pravdo, S. H.↗

Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. The question to be addressed: are the UCTs detected by MODEST in this inclination/RAAN region related to the Titan 3C-4 breakup? Discussion will include the observational biases in attempting to detect a specific, uncontrolled target during given observing session. These restrictions include: (1) the length of the observing session which is 8 hours or less at any given date or declination; (2) the assumption of ACO elements for detected object when the breakup model predicts debris with non-zero eccentricities; (3) the size and illumination or brightness of the debris predicted by the model and the telescope/sky limiting magnitude.

Barker, Edwin S.↗

X-ray observations of the Vela pulsar - Statistics and spectrum

The Vela pulsar (3U 0833-45) was observed in the range 2-60 keV by a proportional-counter experiment on board OSO-8 with temporal resolution sufficient to make possible a sensitive search for pulsed X-rays at the radio pulsar period. A statistical analysis yielded 8 percent as the 3-sigma upper limit on the pulsed fraction. The energy spectrum is fitted well by a structureless power law with number index 2.2 (+ or - 0.2) and absorption by a hydrogen column density of 2.9(+ or - 2.0) by 10 to the 22nd power per sq cm.

Pravdo, S. H.↗

Monte Carlo techniques for solving transport problems

The Monte Carlo procedure is a model sampling technique. A model is established, and the behavior of sample units in this model is followed. A sufficient number of sample units are followed to obtain a statistical average or macroscopic quantities, which are the quantities of interest. This technique was used in crude form by Fermi in connection with the building of the first atomic pile. Later, Von Neumann and Ulam developed and used the Monte Carlo procedure extensively in developing the atomic bomb. Since then this technique has gained considerable use in nuclear reactor problems (refs. 1 and 2), and we at the Lewis Research Center have been extending it to thermal radiation (refs. 3 and 4), rarefied gas flows, and plasma flow problems (ref. 5). This technique, which requires a large number of sample histories to obtain solutions with small variances, is receiving greater use because of the development of the high-speed electronic computers.

SAMPLED DATA SYSTEM↗

Imaging other planetary systems from the moon

This paper studies the problem of using a telescope like the HST, only larger and sensitive to a wider range of wavelengths, to image systems of planets like the solar system around other stars. Both reflected starlight and thermal radiation from the planets are treated. The instrumental effects of aperture diffraction, scattering due to the power spectral density of telescope mirror surface errors, and telescope thermal emission are included. The integration time required to achieve a signal-to-noise ratio is computed at 5 for photon-statistical random errors only, which is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for detection at a confidence level of five standard deviations. A cold telescope on the moon with 16m aperture and the optical quality of HST could detect and characterize planets around nearby stars.

Brown, Robert A.↗

Time-Dependent Selection of an Optimal Set of Sources to Define a Stable Celestial Reference Frame

Temporal statistical position stability is required for VLBI sources to define a stable Celestial Reference Frame (CRF) and has been studied in many recent papers. This study analyzes the sources from the latest realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF2) with the Allan variance, in addition to taking into account the apparent linear motions of the sources. Focusing on the 295 defining sources shows how they are a good compromise of different criteria, such as statistical stability and sky distribution, as well as having a sufficient number of sources, despite the fact that the most stable sources of the entire ICRF2 are mostly in the Northern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, the selection of a stable set is not unique: studying different solutions (GSF005a and AUG24 from GSFC and OPA from the Paris Observatory) over different time periods (1989.5 to 2009.5 and 1999.5 to 2009.5) leads to selections that can differ in up to 20% of the sources. Observing, recording, and network improvement are some of the causes, showing better stability for the CRF over the last decade than the last twenty years. But this may also be explained by the assumption of stationarity that is not necessarily right for some sources.

Le Bail, Karine↗

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗

Star Confusion Effect on SIM PlanetQuest Astrometric Performance

SIM PlanetQuest will measure star positions to an accuracy of a few microarcseconds using precise white light fringe measurements. One challenge for SIM observation scenario is "star confusion," where multiple stars are present in the instrument field of view. This is especially relevant for observing dim science targets because the density of number of stars increases rapidly with star magnitude. We study the effect of star confusion on the SIM astrometric performance due to systematic fringe errors caused by the extra photons from the confusion star(s}. Since star confusion from multiple stars may be analyzed as a linear superposition of the effect from single star confusion, we quantify the astrometric errors due to single star confusion surveying over many spectral types, including AOV, FOV, K5III, and MOV, and for various visual magnitude differences. To the leading order, the star confusion effect is characterized by the magnitude difference, spectral difference, and the angular separation between the target and confusion stars.Strategies for dealing with star confusion are presented. For example, since the presence of additional sources in the field of view leads to inconsistent delay estimates from different channels, with sufficient signal to noise ratio, the star confusion can be detected using chi-square statistics of fringe measurements from multiple spectral channels. An interesting result is that the star confusion can be detected even though the interferometer cannot resolve the separation between the target and confusion stars when their spectra are sufficiently different. Other strategies for mitigating the star confusion effect are also discussed.

crowded field↗

Troposphere-stratosphere (surface-55 km) monthly winter general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere Four year averages

In response to theoretically predicted anthropogenic depletion of stratospheric ozone, there has been, in recent years, an increased effort in stratospheric modeling. For comparison between models and observations, it is not sufficient to only compare the morphology of model-generated parameters with observed parameter values. Model-generated statistics should also be compared with observation. It is one of the objectives of the present investigation to discuss a data set which can be used for this purpose for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere and stratosphere. However, the investigation is mainly concerned with a presentation of some of the general circulation statistics derived with the aid of the data set. Attention is given to winter monthly general circulation statistics which were derived from four years of daily 1200 GMT NOAA/NMC Northern Hemisphere analyses.

Geller, M. A.↗

Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V.↗

MHD Turbulence and Magnetic Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V↗

On the simultaneous analysis of several complete samples - The V/Vmax and Ve/Va variables, with applications to quasars

Methods are derived for applying the V/Vmax variable when several complete samples are analyzed simultaneously. A new, related, variable, V(e)/V(a), which is superior to V/Vmax when sufficient observational data are available, is introduced. It is shown how statistically independent complete samples can be generated from partially overlapping samples such that each observed object appears only once in the analysis. These methods make it possible to combine the information from different complete samples, and to make an efficient use of all available data. Illustrative examples for quasars are given. It is shown how the generalized V/Vmax and V(e)/V(a) can be used to find the amount of cosmological evolution of quasars and its associated range of uncertainty.

Avni, Y.↗