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At least 109 records · Page 6

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian sparse learning with preconditioned stochastic gradient MCMC and its applications

Deep neural networks have been successfully employed in an extensive variety of research areas, including solving partial differential equations. Despite its significant success, there are some challenges in effectively training DNN, such as avoiding overfitting in over-parameterized DNNs and accelerating the optimization in DNNs with pathological curvature. Here, we propose a Bayesian type sparse deep learning algorithm. The algorithm utilizes a set of spike-and-slab priors for the parameters in the deep neural network. The hierarchical Bayesian mixture will be trained using an adaptive empirical method. That is, one will alternatively sample from the posterior using preconditioned stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics (PSGLD), and optimize the latent variables via stochastic approximation. The sparsity of the network is achieved while optimizing the hyperparameters with adaptive searching and penalizing. A popular SG-MCMC approach is Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). However, considering the complex geometry in the model parameter space in nonconvex learning, updating parameters using a universal step size in each component as in SGLD may cause slow mixing. To address this issue, we apply a computationally manageable preconditioner in the updating rule, which provides a step-size parameter to adapt to local geometric properties. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the hyperparameter in the preconditioning matrix, our proposed algorithm ensures a decreasing bias, which is introduced by ignoring the correction term in the preconditioned SGLD. According to the existing theoretical framework, we show that the proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the correct distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. Numerical tests are performed on both synthetic regression problems and learning solutions of elliptic PDE, which demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the present work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Phase-space tailoring and cooling of charged-particle beams for energy- and intensity-frontier applications

This project addressed accelerator science & technology researches relevant to the Intensity and Energy frontiers by investigating generic techniques to tailor and cool the phase-space distributions of charged-particle beams. Specifically, the project had two main research thrusts: (i) the development of phase-space tailoring techniques using externally-applied electromagnetic fields and (ii) the investigation of phase-space control using the beam’s self-field such as the optical-stochastic cooling (OSC). The work related to the development of phase-space-tailoring techniques leveraged on the research performed under our previous grant DE-SC0011831 where new temporal-shaping methods were proposed and some experimentally demonstrated. The work related to the concept of beam manipulation using self fields, and especially OSC, built on the achievements supported by grant DE-SC0013761 which focused on a OSC proof-of-principle experiment at the Fermilab’s IOTA ring.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

High-throughput bend-strengths of ultra-small polysilicon MEMS components

The strength distribution of polysilicon bend specimens, approximately 10 μm in size, is measured using a high-throughput microelectromechanical system fabrication and testing method. The distribution is predicted from reference tests on tensile specimens and finite element analysis of the bend specimen geometry incorporated into a stochastic extreme-value strength framework. Agreement between experiment and prediction suggests that the ultra-small specimens may be at the limit of extreme-value scaling and contain only one strength-controlling flaw/specimen.

Cook, Robert F. (ORCID:0000000304228881)↗

Data-Consistent Inversion for Stochastic Input-to-Output Maps

Data-consistent inversion is a recently developed measure-theoretic framework for solving a stochastic inverse problem involving models of physical systems. The goal is to construct a probability measure on model inputs (i.e., parameters of interest) whose associated push-forward measure matches (i.e., is consistent with) a probability measure on the observable outputs of the model (i.e., quantities of interest). Previous implementations required the map from parameters of interest to quantities of interest to be deterministic. This work generalizes this framework for maps that are stochastic, i.e., contain uncertainties and variation not explainable by variations in uncertain parameters of interest. Generalizations of previous theorems of existence, uniqueness, and stability of the data-consistent solution are provided while new theoretical results address the stability of marginals on parameters of interest. A notable aspect of the algorithmic generalization is the ability to query the solution to generate independent identically distributed samples of the parameters of interest without requiring knowledge of the so-called stochastic parameters. This work therefore extends the applicability of the data-consistent inversion framework to a much wider class of problems. This includes those based on purely experimental and field data where only a subset of conditions are either controllable or can be documented between experiments while the underlying physics, measurement errors, and any additional covariates are either uncertain or not accounted for by the researcher. Finally, numerical examples demonstrate application of this approach to systems with stochastic sources of uncertainties embedded within the modeling of a system and a numerical diagnostic is summarized that is useful for determining if a key assumption is verified among competing choices of stochastic maps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Restoration Using Distributed Energy Resources and Tie-Switches

Distributed energy resources (DERs), such as solar PVs and energy storage, can be used to restore distribution system critical loads after the extreme weather events to increase grid resilience. However, coordinating multiple DERs together with tie-switches for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty is challenging. This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning to control discrete actions of switching on/off tie switches and DERs for critical load restoration. The restoration problem is first cast into the Markov decision process suitable for DRL. Then, the original soft actor critic (SAC) method for continuous actions has been extended to handle discrete and continuous actions. Numerical comparison results with other stochastic optimization-based approaches on the modified IEEE 33-bus system show that the proposed method can achieve fast critical load restoration in the presence of substation power outage while maintaining system voltage limit throughout the restoration process.

active distribution systems↗

Assessing mechanisms for microbial taxa and community dynamics using process models

Disentangling the assembly mechanisms controlling community composition, structure, distribution, functions, and dynamics is a central issue in ecology. Although various approaches have been proposed to examine community assembly mechanisms, quantitative characterization is challenging, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, we present a novel approach for quantitatively delineating community assembly mechanisms by combining the consumer–resource model with a neutral model in stochastic differential equations. Using time-series data from anaerobic bioreactors that target microbial 16S rRNA genes, we tested the applicability of three ecological models: the consumer–resource model, the neutral model, and the combined model. Our results revealed that model performances varied substantially as a function of population abundance and/or process conditions. The combined model performed best for abundant taxa in the treatment bioreactors where process conditions were manipulated. In contrast, the neutral model showed the best performance for rare taxa. Our analysis further indicated that immigration rates decreased with taxa abundance and competitions between taxa were strongly correlated with phylogeny, but within a certain phylogenetic distance only. The determinism underlying taxa and community dynamics were quantitatively assessed, showing greater determinism in the treatment bioreactors that aligned with the subsequent abnormal system functioning. Given its mechanistic basis, the framework developed here is expected to be potentially applicable beyond microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Soft Actor Critic Based Volt-VAR Co-optimization in Active Distribution Grids

Modern distribution networks are undergoing several technical challenges, such as voltage fluctuations, because of high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based Volt VAR co-optimization technique for reducing voltage fluctuations as well as power loss under high penetration of DERs. In addition, the proposed approach minimizes the operational cost of the grid. A stochastic policy optimization based soft actor critic (SAC) agent is proposed to configure the optimal set-points of the reactive power outputs of the inverters. The performance of the proposed model is verified on the modified IEEE 34- and 123-bus systems and compared with a base case scenario with no reactive supply by inverters, and a local droop control approach. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms the conventional droop control method in improving the voltage profile, minimizing the network power loss, and reducing grid operational cost.

—Distribution grids, deep reinforcement learning, ↗

Flexible Resource Scheduler for FAST-DERMS (FRS-FASTDERMS) v0.9

The Flexible Resource Scheduler is a hierarchical controller that manages the distributed energy resources in a distribution substation or distribution feeder to provide a firm commitment of power flow at the substation or feeder head to be scheduled in transmission-level markets as an aggregated demand resource. It is the reference controller for the FAST-DERMS Architecture, developed in tandem with the architecture under the DOE FAST-DERMS project. It is comprised of a day-ahead stochastic optimization, which schedules substation power flow and reserves, a intra-hour MPC, which generates dispatch base points for DER, and a real-time PID controller maintaining that dispatches DER to maintain the substation power around the base points. The repository also includes a representative aggregator controller, and all of the necessary components to run a simulation using PNNL's GridAPPS-D software with the controller.

MacDonald, Jason [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Computational Math Problems for a Clean Energy Future

Cutting edge computational mathematics are ubiquitous in renewable energy research. Problems in resilient and reliable electric grid operations, infrastructure planning, wind farm yaw control, and more demand sophisticated and scalable computational tools that enable the transition of renewable energy technologies from proof of concept to deployment into our energy system. The mission of the Computational Science Center at NREL is to lead the lab's efforts to solve energy challenges using high-performance computing (HPC), computational science, applied mathematics, scientific data management, visualization, and informatics. In this poster, we provide a short overview of three areas of computational mathematics research at NREL: wind power scenario generation for stochastic grid operations and infrastructure planning, improved rational function approximations for electromagnetic transients codes, and wind farm yaw control using a combination of the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and reinforcement learning (RL). Increasing penetrations of renewable energy into power grids motivate the investigation of new approaches to characterizing uncertainty for five-minute economic dispatch problems. Similarly, as the penetration of distributed energy resources on power grids increases, it becomes important to revisit our methods of modelling transient phenomena, i.e. electromagnetic transients programs. Finally, the combination of ADMM and RL for wind farm yaw control presented here can potentially increase the efficiency of the deployed distributed controllers by orders of magnitude.

ADMM↗

Micromechanics of fatigue in woven and stitched composites

The goals of this research program were to: (1) determine how microstructural factors, especially the architecture of reinforcing fibers, control stiffness, strength, and fatigue life in 3D woven composites; (2) identify mechanisms of failure; (3) model composite stiffness; (4) model notched and unnotched strength; and (5) model fatigue life. We have examined a total of eleven different angle and orthogonal interlock woven composites. Extensive testing has revealed that these 3D woven composites possess an extraordinary combination of strength, damage tolerance, and notch insensitivity in compression and tension and in monotonic and cyclic loading. In many important regards, 3D woven composites far outstrip conventional 2D laminates or stitched laminates. Detailed microscopic analysis of damage has led to a comprehensive picture of the essential mechanisms of failure and how they are related to the reinforcement geometry. The critical characteristics of the weave architecture that promote favorable properties have been identified. Key parameters are tow size and the distributions in space and strength of geometrical flaws. The geometrical flaws should be regarded as controllable characteristics of the weave in design and manufacture. In addressing our goals, the simplest possible models of properties were always sought, in a blend of old and new modeling concepts. Nevertheless, certain properties, especially regarding damage tolerance, ultimate failure, and the detailed effects of weave architecture, require computationally intensive stochastic modeling. We have developed a new model, the 'binary model,' to carry out such tasks in the most efficient manner and with faithful representation of crucial mechanisms. This is the final report for contract NAS1-18840. It covers all work from April 1989 up to the conclusion of the program in January 1993.

Cox, B. N.↗

Optimization problems governed by systems of PDEs with uncertainties

This paper reviews current theoretical and numerical approaches to optimization problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) that depend on random variables or random fields. Such problems arise in many engineering, science, economics and societal decision-making tasks. This paper focuses on problems in which the governing PDEs are parametrized by the random variables/fields, and the decisions are made at the beginning and are not revised once uncertainty is revealed. Examples of such problems are presented to motivate the topic of this paper, and to illustrate the impact of different ways to model uncertainty in the formulations of the optimization problem and their impact on the solution. A linear–quadratic elliptic optimal control problem is used to provide a detailed discussion of the set-up for the risk-neutral optimization problem formulation, study the existence and characterization of its solution, and survey numerical methods for computing it. Different ways to model uncertainty in the PDE-constrained optimization problem are surveyed in an abstract setting, including risk measures, distributionally robust optimization formulations, probabilistic functions and chance constraints, and stochastic orders. Furthermore, approximation-based optimization approaches and stochastic methods for the solution of the large-scale PDE-constrained optimization problems under uncertainty are described. Some possible future research directions are outlined.

Heinkenschloss, Matthias [Rice Univ., Houston, TX ↗

Towards a Theory of Sampled-Data Piecewise-Deterministic Markov Processes

The analysis and design of practical control systems requires that stochastic models be employed. Analysis and design tools have been developed, for example, for Markovian jump linear continuous and discrete-time systems, piecewise-deterministic processes (PDP's), and general stochastic hybrid systems (GSHS's). These model classes have been used in many applications, including fault tolerant control and networked control systems. This paper presents initial results on the analysis of a sampled-data PDP representation of a nonlinear sampled-data system with a jump linear controller. In particular, it is shown that the state of the sampled-data PDP satisfies the strong Markov property. In addition, a relation between the invariant measures of a sampled-data system driven by a stochastic process and its associated discrete-time representation are presented. As an application, when the plant is linear with no external input, a sufficient testable condition for the convergence in distribution to the invariant delta Dirac measure is given.

Herencia-Zapana, Heber↗

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Explaining persistent incomplete mixing in multicomponent reactive transport with Eulerian stochastic model

We present an Eulerian stochastic advection–diffusion–reaction (SADR) model and use it to explain incomplete mixing typically observed in transport experiments with bimolecular reactions. Unlike traditional advection– dispersion–reaction (ADR) models, the SADR model describes mechanical and diffusive mixing as two separate processes. In the SADR model, mechanical mixing is driven by random advective velocity whose variance is given by the coefficient of mechanical dispersion. The diffusive mixing is modeled as a Fickian diffusion process with the effective diffusion coefficient. We demonstrate that the sum of the two coefficients is equal to the dispersion coefficient, but only the effective diffusion coefficient contributes to the mixing-controlled reactions. We use experimental results of Gramling et al. * * to show that for transport and bimolecular reactions in porous media, the SADR model is significantly more accurate than the ADR model, which overestimates the concentration of the reaction product by as much as 60%. We also show that the SADR model predicts an experimentally observed bell- shaped spatial distribution of the reactive product concentration, while the ADR model results in a concentration distribution with an unphysical kink.

Bimolecular reactions, incomplete mixing, Stochast↗

Failure models for textile composites

The goals of this investigation were to: (1) identify mechanisms of failure and determine how the architecture of reinforcing fibers in 3D woven composites controlled stiffness, strength, strain to failure, work of fracture, notch sensitivity, and fatigue life; and (2) to model composite stiffness, strength, and fatigue life. A total of 11 different angle and orthogonal interlock woven composites were examined. Composite properties depended on the weave architecture, the tow size, and the spatial distributions and strength of geometrical flaws. Simple models were developed for elastic properties, strength, and fatigue life. A more complicated stochastic model, called the 'Binary Model,' was developed for damage tolerance and ultimate failure. These 3D woven composites possessed an extraordinary combination of strength, damage tolerance, and notch insensitivity.

Cox, Brian↗

An APL program for the distribution of energy deposition by charged particles passing through thin absorbers

An APL program which numerically evaluates the probability density function (PDF) for the energy deposited in a thin absorber by a charged particle is proposed, with application to the construction, pointing, and control of spacecraft. With this program, the PDF of the restricted energy loss distribution of Watts (1973) is derived, and Vavilov's (1957) distribution is obtained by proper parameter selection. The method is demonstrated with the example of the effect of charged particle induced radiation on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) pointing accuracy. A Monte Carlo study simulates the photon noise caused by charged particles passing through the photomultiplier tube window, and the stochastic variation of energy loss is introduced into the simulation by generating random energy losses from a power law distribution. The program eliminates annoying loop procedures, and model parameter sensitivity can be studied using the graphical output.

Howell, L. W.↗