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NASA NTRS1975

An investigation of turbulent transport in the extreme lower atmosphere

A model in which the Lagrangian autocorrelation is expressed by a domain integral over a set of usual Eulerian autocorrelations acquired concurrently at all points within a turbulence box is proposed along with a method for ascertaining the statistical stationarity of turbulent velocity by creating an equivalent ensemble to investigate the flow in the extreme lower atmosphere. Simultaneous measurements of turbulent velocity on a turbulence line along the wake axis were carried out utilizing a longitudinal array of five hot-wire anemometers remotely operated. The stationarity test revealed that the turbulent velocity is approximated as a realization of a weakly self-stationary random process. Based on the Lagrangian autocorrelation it is found that: (1) large diffusion time predominated; (2) ratios of Lagrangian to Eulerian time and spatial scales were smaller than unity; and, (3) short and long diffusion time scales and diffusion spatial scales were constrained within their Eulerian counterparts.

Koper, C. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Perspectives on Forced Predictability

This talk addresses the relationships between weather and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other low frequency atmospheric variations such as the Pacific/North American pattern. We focus, in particular, on the predictability of extreme wintertime precipitation events over the continental United States. We first examine fifty years of daily precipitation observations and quantify the leading patterns of winter weather variability. These weather systems, familiar to operational weather forecasters, account for many of the major flooding events on the west coast as well as the major winter snowstorms along the east coast. We next examine the statistics of these storm systems with a particular focus on the occurrence of extreme events. The leading weather systems show varying degrees of linkages to low frequency atmospheric variability. We show, for example, that on seasonal time scales the probability of occurrence of certain types of west coast storms is strongly enhanced by El Nino, while it is reduced during winters with an anomalous trough to the west of the dateline. ENSO also has a strong impact on storms that develop over the Gulf of Mexico and affect much of the eastern United States, with enhanced storminess during El Nino, and reduced storminess during La Nina conditions. We conclude with an example of how well current climate models are able to reproduce the basic linkages between weather and low frequency variability.

Schubert, S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Simulated Performance of the Orbiting Wide-angle Light Collectors (OWL) Experiment

The Orbiting Wide-angle Light collectors (OWL) experiment is in NASA's mid-term strategic plan and will stereoscopically image, from equatorial orbit, the air fluorescence signal generated by airshowers induced by the ultrahigh energy (E greater than few x 10(exp 19) eV) component of the cosmic radiation. The use of a space-based platform enables an extremely large event acceptance aperture and thus will allow a high statistics measurement of these rare events. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations are required to quantify the physics potential of the mission as well as optimize the instrumental parameters. This paper reports on the results of the GSFC Monte Carlo simulation for two different, OWL instrument baseline designs. These results indicate that, assuming a continuation of the cosmic ray spectrum (theta approximately E(exp -2.75), OWL could have an event rate of 4000 events/year with E greater than or equal to 10(exp 20) eV. Preliminary results, based upon these Monte Carlo simulations, indicate that events can be accurately reconstructed in the detector focal plane arrays for the OWL instrument baseline designs under consideration.

Krizmanic, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗
NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗
NASA NTRS2013

Application of Statistically Derived CPAS Parachute Parameters

The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Analysis Team is responsible for determining parachute inflation parameters and dispersions that are ultimately used in verifying system requirements. A model memo is internally released semi-annually documenting parachute inflation and other key parameters reconstructed from flight test data. Dispersion probability distributions published in previous versions of the model memo were uniform because insufficient data were available for determination of statistical based distributions. Uniform distributions do not accurately represent the expected distributions since extreme parameter values are just as likely to occur as the nominal value. CPAS has taken incremental steps to move away from uniform distributions. Model Memo version 9 (MMv9) made the first use of non-uniform dispersions, but only for the reefing cutter timing, for which a large number of sample was available. In order to maximize the utility of the available flight test data, clusters of parachutes were reconstructed individually starting with Model Memo version 10. This allowed for statistical assessment for steady-state drag area (CDS) and parachute inflation parameters such as the canopy fill distance (n), profile shape exponent (expopen), over-inflation factor (C(sub k)), and ramp-down time (t(sub k)) distributions. Built-in MATLAB distributions were applied to the histograms, and parameters such as scale (sigma) and location (mu) were output. Engineering judgment was used to determine the "best fit" distribution based on the test data. Results include normal, log normal, and uniform (where available data remains insufficient) fits of nominal and failure (loss of parachute and skipped stage) cases for all CPAS parachutes. This paper discusses the uniform methodology that was previously used, the process and result of the statistical assessment, how the dispersions were incorporated into Monte Carlo analyses, and the application of the distributions in trajectory benchmark testing assessments with parachute inflation parameters, drag area, and reefing cutter timing used by CPAS.

Romero, Leah M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

File Specification for MERRA-2 Climate Statistics Products

The Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contains a wealth of information that can be used for weather and climate studies. By combining the assimilation of observations with a frozen version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), a global analysis is produced at an hourly temporal resolution spanning from January 1980 through present (Gelaro et al., 2017). It can be difficult to parse through a multidecadal dataset such as MERRA-2 to evaluate the interannual variability of weather that occurs on a daily timescale, let alone determine the occurrence of an extreme weather event. Furthermore, it was recognized that standard metrics were needed to evaluate climate change among climate models and international research efforts. As a result of these concerns, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) developed a set of indices that represent the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events using a daily time series of 2-m air temperature (T2m) and precipitation (Alexander et al., 2016). These indices were used as a basis to comprise a list of fields that represent daily extreme temperature and precipitation events, heatwaves, multi-day precipitation, as well monthly percentile statistics from the MERRA-2 dataset. Also included in this data product is a climatological long term mean and standard deviation representing the interannual variability on a monthly timescale.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS2008

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Effects of D region ionization on radio wave propagation

The effects of anomalous D region ionization upon radio wave propagation are described for the main types of disturbances: sudden ionospheric disturbances, relativistic electron events, magnetic storms, auroral disturbances, polar cap events, and stratospheric warmings. Examples of radio wave characteristics for such conditions are given for the frequencies between the extremely low (3-3000 Hz) and high (3-30 MHz) frequency domains. Statistics on the disturbance effects and radio wave data are given in order to contribute towards the evaluation of possibilities for predicting the radio effects.

Larsen, T. R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, from Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging

Emitted smoke composition is determined by properties of the biomass burning source and ambient ecosystem. However, conditions that mediate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation, as well as the spatial and temporal factors that drive particle evolution, are not understood adequately for many climate and air-quality related modeling applications. In situ observations provide considerable detail about aerosol microphysical and chemical properties, although sampling is extremely limited. Satellites offer the frequent global coverage that would allow for statistical characterization of emitted and evolved smoke, but generally lack microphysical detail. However, once properly validated, data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument can create at least a partial picture of smoke particle properties and plume evolution. We use in situ data from the Department of Energy’s Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of smoke particle retrieval results from the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) retrieval algorithm. We then use MISR to characterize wildfire smoke particle properties and to identify the relevant aging factors in several cases, to the extent possible. The RA successfully maps qualitative changes in effective particle size, light absorption, and its spectral dependence, when compared to in situ observations. By observing the entire plume uniformly, the satellite data can be interpreted in terms of smoke plume evolution, including size-selective deposition, new-particle formation, and locations within the plume where BC or BrC dominates.

Noyes, Katherine Junghenn↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Digital Twin Paradigm for Future NASA and U.S. Air Force Vehicles

Future generations of NASA and U.S. Air Force vehicles will require lighter mass while being subjected to higher loads and more extreme service conditions over longer time periods than the present generation. Current approaches for certification, fleet management and sustainment are largely based on statistical distributions of material properties, heuristic design philosophies, physical testing and assumed similitude between testing and operational conditions and will likely be unable to address these extreme requirements. To address the shortcomings of conventional approaches, a fundamental paradigm shift is needed. This paradigm shift, the Digital Twin, integrates ultra-high fidelity simulation with the vehicle s on-board integrated vehicle health management system, maintenance history and all available historical and fleet data to mirror the life of its flying twin and enable unprecedented levels of safety and reliability.

Glaessgen, Edward H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Joint pain and Doppler-detectable bubbles in altitude (Hypobaric) decompression

The observation that altitude decompression sickness (DCS) is associated with pain in the lower extremities is not new, although it is not a consistent finding. DCS in divers is generally in the upper body, an effect often attributed to non-loading of the body while immersed. In caisson workers, DCS is reported more in the lower extremities. Surprisingly, many researchers do not mention the location of DCS joint pain, apparently considering it to be random. This is not the case for the tissue ratios encountered in studying decompression associated with simulated EVA. In NASA/JSC tests, altitude DCS generally presented first in either the ankle, knee, or hip (83 percent = 73/88). There was a definite statistical relation between the maximum Spencer precordial Doppler Grade and the incidence of DCS in the extremity, although this is not meant to imply a casual relation between circulating gas bubbles and joint pain. The risk of DCS with Grade 4 was considerably higher than that of Grades 0 to 3. The DCS risk was independent of the 'tissue ratio.' There was a predominance of lower extremity DCS even when exercise was performed with the upper body. The reason for these locations we hypothesize to be attributed to the formation of tissue gas micronuclei from kinetic and tensile forces (stress-assisted nucleation) and are the result of the individuals ambulating in a 1g environment. Additionally, since these showers of Doppler bubbles can persist for hours, it is difficult to imagine that they are emanating solely from tendons and ligaments, the supposed site of joint pain. This follows from Henry's law linking the volume of joint tissue (the solvent) and the solubility coefficient of inert gas; there is volumetrically insufficient connective tissue to produce the prolonged release of gas bubbles. If gas bubbles are spawned and released from connective tissue, their volume is increased by those from muscle tissue. Therefore, the nexus between Doppler-detectable gas bubbles and joint-pain decompression sickness is essentially a statistical, rather than a direct, one.

Powell, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Statistical evaluation of gamma-ray line observations

The statistical reliability of reported positive observations of solar and cosmic gamma-ray lines has been evaluated. The relative probability that each measurement is due to a real source rather than to an accidental fluctuation in the background has been determined, and it is found that the results are statistically compelling in only a small fraction of the reported observations. At present, extreme caution must be exercised in drawing astrophysical conclusions from reports of the detection of cosmic gamma-ray lines.

Cherry, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A New Approach to Measuring Safety with Flight Data

For over two decades, safety has been measured by screening flight data for deviations from prescribed operations. NASA and the FAA are developing a prototype system with a new approach, to complement these event-measurement systems. The premise is that, in addition to these events, much can be gained by analyzing all the flight data on a routine basis. The statistical analyses of this system enable the evaluation of normal as well as extreme operations. The trend analyses make it possible to foresee the potential occurrence of an unsafe operation and intervene before it occurs.

Chappell, Sheryl L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of 3D Codes for Predicting Liner Attenuation in Flow Ducts

This paper presents comparisons of seven propagation codes for predicting liner attenuation in ducts with flow. The selected codes span the spectrum of methods available (finite element, parabolic approximation, and pseudo-time domain) and are collectively representative of the state-of-art in the liner industry. These codes are included because they have two-dimensional and three-dimensional versions and can be exported to NASA's Columbia Supercomputer. The basic assumptions, governing differential equations, boundary conditions, and numerical methods underlying each code are briefly reviewed and an assessment is performed based on two predefined metrics. The two metrics used in the assessment are the accuracy of the predicted attenuation and the amount of wall clock time to predict the attenuation. The assessment is performed over a range of frequencies, mean flow rates, and grazing flow liner impedances commonly used in the liner industry. The primary conclusions of the study are (1) predicted attenuations are in good agreement for rigid wall ducts, (2) the majority of codes compare well to each other and to approximate results from mode theory for soft wall ducts, (3) most codes compare well to measured data on a statistical basis, (4) only the finite element codes with cubic Hermite polynomials capture extremely large attenuations, and (5) wall clock time increases by an order of magnitude or more are observed for a three-dimensional code relative to the corresponding two-dimensional version of the same code.

Watson, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Dense matter with eXTP

In this White Paper we present the potential of the Enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry (eXTP) mission for determining the nature of dense matter; neutron star cores host an extreme density regime which cannot be replicated in a terrestrial laboratory. The tightest statistical constraints on the dense matter equation of state will come from pulse profile modelling of accretion-powered pulsars, burst oscillation sources, and rotation-powered pulsars. Additional constraints will derive from spin measurements, burst spectra, and properties of the accretion flows in the vicinity of the neutron star. Under development by an international Consortium led by the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science, the eXTP mission is expected to be launched in the mid 2020s.

Anna L. Watts↗
NASA NTRS1993

Detecting point sources in EUVE survey skymaps

One of the primary goals of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) all-sky survey is the detection and identification of new sources of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Here, the challenges involved in producing a catalog containing as many statistically significant detections as possible, with a small expected number of spurious detections, are reviewed. The discussion covers simulation and testing, early survey results, advanced detection techniques, and diffuse feature detection.

Lewis, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Exploring Cosmic X-ray Source Polarization

Cosmic X-ray sources are expected to be polarized, either because of their asymmetry and the role of scattering in their emission or the role of magnetic fields. Polarization at other wavelengths has been useful. X-ray polarization will provide a new handle on black hole parameters, in particular the spin, on accretion flows and outflows, on neutron star spin orientations and emission mechanisms, on the quantum mechanical effects of super-strong magnetic fields of magnetars, and on the structure of supernovae shocks. The proposed Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX (GEMS) will use high efficiency polarimeters behind thin foil mirrors. The statistical sensitivity and control of systematics will allow measurement of polarization fractions as small as 1% from many galactic and extragalactic sources. Targets which should be polarized at the level that GEMS can easily measure include stellar black holes, Seyfert galaxies and quasars, blazars, rotation-powered and accretion-powered pulsars, magnetars, shell supernova remnants and pulsar wind nebulae. The polarimeters are Time Projection Chambers that allow reconstruction of images of photoelectron tracks for 2-10 keV Xrays. They can be deep without sacrificing modulation. These polarimeters do not image the sky, but the telescope point spread function and detector collimation allow structure to be resolved at the 10 arcmin level. Rotation of the spacecraft is not needed for the signal measurement in the Time Projection Chambers, but provides for measurement and correction of systematic errors. It also allows a small Bragg reflection soft X-ray experiment to be included that can be used for isolated neutron stars and blazars.

Swank, Jean Hebb↗