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At least 109 records · Page 6

Crop Surveillance Demonstration Using a Near-Daily MODIS Derived Vegetation Index Time Series

Effective response to crop disease outbreaks requires rapid identification and diagnosis of an event. A near-daily vegetation index product, such as a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), at moderate spatial resolution may serve as a good method for monitoring quick-acting diseases. NASA s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument flown on the Terra and Aqua satellites has the temporal, spatial, and spectral properties to make it an excellent coarse-resolution data source for rapid, comprehensive surveillance of agricultural areas. A proof-of-concept wide area crop surveillance system using daily MODIS imagery was developed and tested on a set of San Joaquin cotton fields over a growing season. This area was chosen in part because excellent ground truth data were readily available. Preliminary results indicate that, at least in the southwestern part of the United States, near-daily NDVI products can be generated that show the natural variations in the crops as well as specific crop practices. Various filtering methods were evaluated and compared with standard MOD13 NDVI MODIS products. We observed that specific chemical applications that produce defoliation, which would have been missed using the standard 16-day product, were easily detectable with the filtered daily NDVI products.

McKellip, Rodney↗

Hierarchical Bayesian Thermonuclear Rate for the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Reaction

Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides the earliest probe of standard model physics, at a time when the universe was less than 1000 seconds old. It determines the abundances of the lightest nuclides, which give rise to the subsequent history of the visible matter in the universe. This work derives new 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear reaction rates based on all available experimental information. This reaction sensitively impacts the primordial abundances of 7 Be and 7 Li during big bang nucleosynthesis. We critically evaluate all available data and disregard experimental results that are questionable. For the nuclear model, we adopt an incoherent sum of single-level, two-channel, R -matrix approximation expressions, which are implemented into a hierarchical Bayesian model, to analyze the remaining six data sets we deem most reliable. In the fitting of the data, we consistently model all known sources of uncertainty, including discrepant absolute normalizations of different data sets, and also take the variation of the neutron and proton channel radii into account, hence providing less biased estimates of the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates. From the resulting posteriors, we extract R -matrix parameters ($E_r, γ^2_n, γ^2_p$) and derive excitation energies and partial and total widths. Our fit is sensitive to the contributions of the first three levels above the neutron threshold. Reaction rates were computed by integrating 10,000 samples of the reduced cross section. Our 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates have uncertainties between 1.5% and 2.0% at temperatures of ≤1 GK. Finally, we compare our rates to previous results and find that the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li rates most commonly used in big bang simulations have uncertainties that are too optimistic.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Raman intensity as a probe of concentration near a crystal growing in solution

The feasibility of using Raman spectral scattering signals for measurements of concentration profiles near a crystal interface during growth or dissolution is discussed. With KH2PO4 (KDP) as a test material, optical multichannel analyzer (OMA) detection of a solute Raman vibrational band provided direct quantification of solute concentration with band intensity. The intersection of incident laser and Raman collection optics provided 3-D selective point measurements of the solution concentration field. Unlike many other techniques, the Raman band intensity is not sensitive to the typical temperature variations. Precision calibration of Raman intensity versus KDP concentration with less than 1 pct standard deviation error levels was demonstrated. A fiber optic, which sampled incident laser intensity and coupled it to the OMA, provided a fully synchronized monitor of fluctuations in laser power to correlate with observed Raman signals. With 1 W of laser power at the sample, good data statistics required eight repeated data collections at approximately 2.5 min collection. The accumulated time represents the concentration measurement time at one spatial location. Photomicroscopy documented a 30 micrometer diameter by 200 micrometer of laser Raman scattering region in the solution near the crystal surface. The laser beam was able to approach up to 25 micrometer from the crystal surface. However, a crystal surface reflected intensity contribution was weakly detectable. Nucleated microcrystals were seen in the crystal-growing solution. These microcrystals convect right up to the crystal surface and indicate no quiet diffusion region under normal gravity conditions. Translation of the solution cell with respect to the optics caused systematic intensity errors.

Wilkinson, R. Allen↗

Hanford Waste Treatment Plant LAB Facility Stack Effluent Monitoring: Sampling Probe Location Qualification Evaluation

The Waste Treatment Plant laboratory (LAB) facility stack monitor locations were qualified using scale model stacks to mitigate the risk of identifying that sampling locations do not meet the qualification criteria on the full-scale stack. As required by the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard, the scale model and its sampling location were geometrically similar to the actual stack, and the Reynolds numbers for both the actual and model stacks were >10,000. An additional criterion is that the product of the hydraulic diameter and mean velocity (DV) of the full-scale stack must be between 1/6 DV and 6 DV of the scale model stack tests. Verification tests of the LAB stacks were performed at normal operating conditions. The minimum 1/6 DV value, along with the maximum 6 DV value from the scale model testing, determines the range of conditions for which the full-scale stack may be operated and remain in compliance with the stack verification criterion. A practical range for the full-scale stack qualification uses the average DV through 6 DV from the scale model tests to compute the corresponding flow rates. Table S1 lists the operating flow rates along with the average and maximum qualified stack flow rates for each of the LAB facility stacks. For each stack, the operating flow is below the maximum qualified stack flow, which means that the scale model test results are acceptable for stack qualification. The remaining criteria for the stack verification to be considered valid involve the flow angle and velocity uniformity results. First, the flow angle at the full-scale stack must be ≤20°. Second, the velocity uniformity at the full-scale stack must be ≤20% coefficient of variance (COV). Finally, the velocity uniformity results for the actual and scale model stack tests must agree within 5% COV. These criteria were met through the full-scale stack tests at the LAB facility. Flow angle results were primarily less than 10°, except for the LB-C2 Fan A results, which were an average of 13.7°; all flow angle results were within the ≤20° criterion. The velocity uniformity results for each test condition averaged between 1.5 and 4.1% COV, which were all within the range of the target percent coefficient of variation values from the scale model tests. Based on these stack verification test results, the three LAB filtered exhaust stack sampling locations meet the qualification criteria provided in the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard for all fan operating configurations. This includes single-fan as well as dual-fan operations for LB-C2, each of the dual-fan operating conditions for LB-S1, and each single-fan operating condition for LB-S2. Further changes to the system configuration or operating conditions that are outside the bounds described in this report may require additional tests or analyses to determine compliance with the standard.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Snowmelt on the Greenland Ice Sheet as Derived From Passive Microwave Satellite Data

The melt extent of the snow on the Greenland ice sheet is of considerable importance to the ice sheet's mass and energy balance, as well as Arctic and global climates. By comparing passive microwave satellite data to field observations, variations in melt extent have been detected by establishing melt thresholds in the cross-polarized gradient ratio (XPGR). The XPGR, defined as the normalized difference between the 19-GHz horizontal channel and the 37-GHz vertical channel of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), exploits the different effects of snow wetness on different frequencies and polarizations and establishes a distinct melt signal. Using this XPGR melt signal, seasonal and interannual variations in snowmelt extent of the ice sheet are studied. The melt is found to be most extensive on the western side of the ice sheet and peaks in late July. Moreover, there is a notable increasing trend in melt area between the years 1979 and 1991 of 4.4% per year, which came to an abrupt halt in 1992 after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. A similar trend is observed in the temperatures at six coastal stations. The relationship between the warming trend and increasing melt trend between 1979 and 1991 suggests that a 1 C temperature rise corresponds to an increase in melt area of 73000 sq km, which in general exceeds one standard deviation of the natural melt area variability.

Abdalati, Waleed↗

Influence of Strain-Gage Balance Characteristics on the Precision Error of the Drag Coefficient

Improvements and results of a new method are presented that computes a pre-test estimate of the precision error of the drag coefficient of a wind tunnel model. The error estimate is defined as the part of the drag coefficient's precision error that is primarily associated with the precision error of the angle of attack measurement and physical characteristics of the chosen strain-gage balance. The method indirectly describes the precision error of the angle of attack measurement by using an assumed balance gage output variation of one microV/V. The physical characteristics of the balance, on the other hand, are described by partial derivatives of the axial and normal forces with respect to the strain-gage outputs. These derivatives can directly be obtained from the data reduction matrix of the balance. The precision error estimate itself is calculated by applying a simple explicit equation that uses the model reference area, the dynamic pressure, the angle of attack, the coefficients of the linear terms of the data reduction matrix, and the electrical output variation of one microvolt per volt as input. Precision errors at constant angle of attack may be visualized as contour plots by plotting them, for example, versus the Mach number and the total pressure. Characteristics of NASA's MC60E balance are used in combination with the reference area of a generic wind tunnel model in order to demonstrate that error estimates are independent of both the balance load format and the units chosen for the description of balance loads, model reference area, and the dynamic pressure. Finally, experimental data from a wind tunnel test of the Ames Check Standard Model in the NASA Ames 11-foot Transonic Wind Tunnel illustrates the application of the method to real-world test data.

precision error↗

A Simple Model of Cirrus Horizontal Inhomogeneity and Cloud Fraction

A simple model of horizontal inhomogeneity and cloud fraction in cirrus clouds has been formulated on the basis that all internal horizontal inhomogeneity in the ice mixing ratio is due to variations in the cloud depth, which are assumed to be Gaussian. The use of such a model was justified by the observed relationship between the normalized variability of the ice water mixing ratio (and extinction) and the normalized variability of cloud depth. Using radar cloud depth data as input, the model reproduced well the in-cloud ice water mixing ratio histograms obtained from horizontal runs during the FIRE2 cirrus campaign. For totally overcast cases the histograms were almost Gaussian, but changed as cloud fraction decreased to exponential distributions which peaked at the lowest nonzero ice value for cloud fractions below 90%. Cloud fractions predicted by the model were always within 28% of the observed value. The predicted average ice water mixing ratios were within 34% of the observed values. This model could be used in a GCM to produce the ice mixing ratio probability distribution function and to estimate cloud fraction. It only requires basic meteorological parameters, the depth of the saturated layer and the standard deviation of cloud depth as input.

Smith, Samantha A.↗

Average motion, structure and orientation of the distant magnetotail determined from remote sensing of the edge of the plasma sheet boundary layer with E greater than 35 keV ions

We study gradients of the energetic ion intesity observed at the edge of the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) by the energetic ion anisotropy spectrometer (EPAS) on International Sun Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE 3). In particular, we have determined the velocity of the boundary relative to the spacecraft in the direction perpendicular to the tail axis and the angle which the boundary normal makes to the spacecraft spin axis for 1160 PSBL encounters at X(sub GSM) greater than -240 R(sub E). By asuming that, on average, the edge of the PSBL is parallel to the cross-tail current sheet, we are then able to determine a number of properties of the structure, orientation and motion of the deep geomagnetic tail. We conclude the following: (1) Most crossings of the edge of the PSBL are caused by transverse motuion of the entire tail induced by solar wind direction variations, although some are caused by reconfiguration of the tail due to geomagnetic activity. (2) The typical velocity of the PSBL (and hence of the tail) in the direction perpendicular to the tail axis is 50-85 km/s. (3) The average twist of the tail is near zero, with the edge of the PSBL (and by inference the cross-tail current sheet) lying parallel to the ecliptic plane (however, large twists are found in individual events and the distribution of twists is broad, with one standard deviation of approximately 50 deg. (4) The width of the distribution decreases with downtail distance. (5) The variation of the distributions with cross-tail position reveals that this decreas in width is most likely due to the edge of the PSBL being concave, or significantly flared at the tail flanks, in the near-Earth region. (6) During days on which the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has 'away' sector structure, the north lobe of the trail is twisted on average towards dawn by 7.0 +/-2.4 deg. (7) During days on which the IMF has 'toward' sector structure, the north lobe is tilted towards duskby 3.8 +/- 2.3. (8) A subset of events for which IMP 8 solar wind data are available show that, for southward IMF BH(sub z) the tail has a mean twist of -12.3 +/- 5.0 deg for IMF B(sub Y) greater than 0 and 5.5 +/- 3.8 deg for IMF B(sub Y) less than 0 (positive twist angles correspond to a tilt of the northern lobe towards dusk). (9) For northward IMF B(sub z) the tail has a twist of -23.9 +/- 5.0 deg for IMF B(sub Y) greater than 0 and 13.4 +/- 6.0 deg for IMF B(sub y) less than 0. Hence the tail appears more twisted on average for the IMF B(sub Z) northward case. (10) The distribution of tail twist is wider for lower levels of geomagnetic activity, indicating that the tail is able to twist more at lower levels of activity. (11) The data set reveals no evident effect of the earth's dipole wobble; tail orientation appears to be controlled by the solar wind and IMF, such that the GSE coordinate system may be appropriate for the study of field and plasma structures in the distant tail region.

Owen, C. J.↗

The role of ion-scale micro-turbulence in pedestal width of the DIII-D wide-pedestal QH mode

The low-edge rotation, intrinsically ELM-free, and improved confinement wide-pedestal quiescent H-mode (QH-mode), discovered in DIII-D tokamak, has pedestal widths exceeding the EPED-kinetic-ballooning mode (KBM) model scaling typically by at least 25%. Ion-scale ($k_yp_s$ < 1) microturbulence and its role in setting the pedestal structure is investigated using the radially local δ$f$ gyrokinetic code CGYRO. The electromagnetic trapped electron mode (TEM) is unstable at the pedestal top, while plasma beta (β$_e$) is ∼60% below the KBM onset threshold and the electron temperature gradient mode is found to be unstable in the peak gradient region. Nonlinear simulation reveals that the ion-scale turbulence could produce electron energy flux consistent with the flux inferred from power balance at the pedestal top, with a reasonable variation of the local shearing rate; and the local neoclassical transport from NEO is dominant over the simulated turbulent transport in the ion energy flux channel. The simulated ion-scale turbulence produces much lower electron energy flux than inferred from experiment in the pedestal peak gradient region. A correction to the EPED-KBM pedestal width scaling is obtained based on the two-dimensional scan of pedestal top plasma beta (β$_e$) and normalized electron density and temperature scale lengths,${a}$/${L_n}_e$, ${a}$/${L_T}_n$using CGYRO linear simulations. Mode transitions among TEM, micro-tearing mode, ion-temperature gradient mode and KBM, are observed in the 2D scan at the pedestal top. A fixed normalized growth rate for these drift-type modes is taken to determine the pedestal width scaling, which shows good consistency with the QH experimental database on pedestal heights and widths. The onset of KBM instabilities and the local E × B shear suppression criterion set the lower and upper limit for the pedestal width of standard QH-mode, wide-pedestal QH-mode and type-I ELMy H mode. A potentially higher and wider pedestal is expected from the new scaling of pedestal width. This work presents an improved understanding of the ion-scale micro-turbulence of wide-pedestal QH-mode and sheds light on a promising scenario for future reactors, including ITER and beyond.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Statistical Considerations of Data Processing in Giovanni Online Tool

The GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) is a web-based interface for the rapid visualization and analysis of gridded data from a number of remote sensing instruments. The GES DISC currently employs several Giovanni instances to analyze various products, such as Ocean-Giovanni for ocean products from SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua; TOMS & OM1 Giovanni for atmospheric chemical trace gases from TOMS and OMI, and MOVAS for aerosols from MODIS, etc. (http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov) Foremost among the Giovanni statistical functions is data averaging. Two aspects of this function are addressed here. The first deals with the accuracy of averaging gridded mapped products vs. averaging from the ungridded Level 2 data. Some mapped products contain mean values only; others contain additional statistics, such as number of pixels (NP) for each grid, standard deviation, etc. Since NP varies spatially and temporally, averaging with or without weighting by NP will be different. In this paper, we address differences of various weighting algorithms for some datasets utilized in Giovanni. The second aspect is related to different averaging methods affecting data quality and interpretation for data with non-normal distribution. The present study demonstrates results of different spatial averaging methods using gridded SeaWiFS Level 3 mapped monthly chlorophyll a data. Spatial averages were calculated using three different methods: arithmetic mean (AVG), geometric mean (GEO), and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Biogeochemical data, such as chlorophyll a, are usually considered to have a log-normal distribution. The study determined that differences between methods tend to increase with increasing size of a selected coastal area, with no significant differences in most open oceans. The GEO method consistently produces values lower than AVG and MLE. The AVG method produces values larger than MLE in some cases, but smaller in other cases. Further studies indicated that significant differences between AVG and MLE methods occurred in coastal areas where data have large spatial variations and a log-bimodal distribution instead of log-normal distribution.

Suhung, Shen↗

Characterization of spent nuclear fuel canister surface roughness using surface replicating molds

In this study we present a replication method to determine surface roughness and to identify surface features when a sample cannot be directly analyzed by conventional techniques. As a demonstration, this method was applied to an unused spent nuclear fuel dry storage canister to determine variation across different surface features. In this study, an initial material down-selection was performed to determine the best molding agent and determined that non-modified Polytek PlatSil23-75 provided the most accurate representation of the surface while providing good usability. Other materials that were considered include Polygel Brush-On 35 polyurethane rubber (with and without Pol-ease 2300 release agent), Polytek PlatSil73-25 silicone rubber (with and without PlatThix thickening agent and Pol-ease 2300 release agent), and Express STD vinylpolysiloxane impression putty. The ability of PlatSil73-25 to create an accurate surface replica was evaluated by creating surface molds of several locations on surface roughness standards representing ISO grade surfaces N 3 , N 5 , N 7 , and N 8 . Overall, the molds were able to accurately reproduce the expected roughness average (R a ) values, but systematically over-estimated the peak-valley maximum roughness (R z ) values. Using a 3D printed sample cell, several locations across the stainless steel spent nuclear fuel canister were sampled to determine the surface roughness. These measurements provided information regarding variability in normal surface roughness across the canister as well as a detailed evaluation on specific surface features (e.g., welds, grind marks, etc.). The results of these measurements can support development of dry storage canister ageing management programs, as surface roughness is an important factor for surface dust deposition and accumulation. This method can be applied more broadly to different surfaces beyond stainless steel to provide rapid, accurate surface replications for analytical evaluation by profilometry.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Estimating Net Primary Productivity Using Satellite and Ancillary Data

The net primary productivity (C) or annual rate of carbon accumulation per unit ground area by terrestrial plant communities is the difference of the rate of gross photosynthesis (A(sub g)) and autotrophic respiration (R) per unit ground area. Although available observations show that R is a large and variable fraction of A(sub g), viz., 0.3 to 0.7, it is generally recognized that much uncertainties exist in this fraction due to difficulties associated with the needed measurements. Additional uncertainties arise when these measurements are extrapolated to regional or global land surface using empirical equations, for example, using regression equations relating C to mean annual precipitation and air temperature. Here, a process-based approach has been taken to calculate A(sub g) and R using satellite and ancillary data. A(sub g) has been expressed as a product of radiation use efficiency, magnitude of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and normalized by stresses due to soil water shortage and air temperature away from the optimum range. A biophysical model has been used to determine the radiation use efficiency from the maximum rate of carbon assimilation by a leaf, foliage temperature, and the fraction of diffuse PAR incident on a canopy. All meteorological data (PAR, air temperature, precipitation, etc.) needed for the calculation are derived from satellite observations, while a land use, land cover data (based on satellite and ground measurements) have been used to assess the maximum rate of carbon assimilation by a leaf of varied cover type based on field measurements. R has been calculated as the sum of maintenance and growth components. The maintenance respiration of foliage and live fine roots at a standard temperature of different land cover has been determined from their nitrogen content using field and satellite measurements, while that of living fraction of woody stem (viz., sapwood) from the seasonal maximum leaf area index as determined from satellite observations. These maintenance respiration values were then adjusted to that corresponding to air temperature according to a prescribed non-linear variation of respiration with temperature. The growth respiration has been calculated from the difference of Ag and maintenance respiration, according to the two-compartment model. The results of calculations will be reported for 36 consecutive months (1987-1989) over large contiguous areas (ca. 10(exp 5) sq km) Of agricultural land and tropical humid evergreen forests, and compared with available field data.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Fe Kα XANES, Fe Kβ HERFD XANES and EPMA flank method determinations of the oxidation state of Fe in garnet

The ferric to total iron ratios (Fe 3+ /ΣFe) of garnets can be paired with thermodynamic mineral activity models to quantify the oxygen fugacity of garnet-bearing rocks. However, techniques with a high analytical and spatial resolution are necessary to distinguish differences in garnet Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios at the percent level and to accurately measure garnets that are zoned or contain inclusions. We acquired conventional Fe Kα and high-resolution energy fluorescence detection (HERFD) Fe Kβ X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra and electron microprobe flank method analyses on a suite of 27 peridotitic and eclogitic garnets with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios previously determined by Mössbauer spectroscopy to evaluate the precision of each technique. We examined variations in the energy and intensity of three XANES spectral features as a function of Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios: 1) the intensity ratio of two-post edge features (I-ratio; Fe Kα only); 2) the energy of the Fe edge at 90% normalized intensity (E 0.9 ; Fe Kα only) and 3) the pre-edge centroid energy (Fe Kα and HERFD Fe Kβ). In accordance with previous work, we find the energies of garnet pre-edge centroids are relatively insensitive to Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios. The I-ratios of peridotitic and eclogitic garnets are offset from each other at low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (≤0.13); I-ratio garnet XANES calibrations are composition-specific. The E 0.9 feature is independent of garnet major element composition in spectra that have been corrected for the effects of self-absorption. We produce two Fe Kα garnet XANES calibrations based on variations in the E0.9 feature; one calibration with all garnet reference materials included (Fe 3+ /ΣFe up to 1.0; “all garnet calibration”) and another calibration specific to garnets with low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (“low ferric calibration”). Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios calculated from the mean of up to 25 flank method measurements on eight garnet reference materials fall within 4% absolute of a one-to-one correlation with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios measured by Mössbauer. The standard error of the mean Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio calculated from flank method approaches the Mössbauer-determined Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio within estimated error (3%) after three analyses. Flank method precision is enhanced at higher beam current; however, the precision of the flank method does not approach the precision of XANES under any microprobe analytical condition tested here. Garnet reference materials detailed here are available by request to the Smithsonian Institution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of thermal cycling on stress in metallic films on ceramic substrates

The hydrogen maser is the most stable frequency standard currently available for averaging intervals of hours to weeks. A major contributor to maser frequency variations is the maser's microwave resonant cavity: by means of the cavity pulling effect, a change in the cavity's resonance frequency produces a proportional change in the maser's output frequency. To minimize variations in the cavity's dimensions, and thus in its resonance frequency, maser cavities are often constructed of a low-expansivity glass-ceramic material coated on its surface with a conductive metallic film. It was previously shown that silver films like those used in SAO maser cavities develop tensile stress when cooled to room temperature after being fired onto the cavity, and that the stress in such films relaxes with time at a rate proportional to the level of stress. Stress relaxation in maser cavity coatings can alter the shape, and hence the resonance frequency, of the cavity, resulting in a slow variation in the maser's output frequency. The possibility was investigated of reversing the initial tensile stress by precooling the coated cavity material. It was hypothesized that cooling the material well below its normal working temperature and then warming it to its normal temperature would result in a lower tensile stress or even a compressive stress. Under such a condition stress relaxation, and thus any consequent frequency drifts, might be reduced or reversed.

Mattison, Edward M.↗

Robustness of energy performance of Zero-Net-Energy (ZNE) homes

Zero-net-energy (ZNE) homes produce an adequate amount of energy on-site to meet their energy demand based on source energy for an entire year. California building energy efficiency standards require new residential buildings started in 2020 to be ZNE. For various reasons, a home designed as ZNE may not achieve ZNE performance in real operation. Here we aimed to quantify the robustness of the energy performance of ZNE homes due to weather variability, climate change, and the uncertainty of occupant behavior. A single-family ZNE house, based on the optimal cost-effective design in three California climate zones, was used to develop the EnergyPlus simulation models. Weather variations were considered from a combination of the historical 30 years’ actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, typical year weather data in TMY3, and future weather data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. Three scenarios of occupant behavior from the energy perspective were defined to represent the uncertainty about occupants’ activities, comfort requirements, and their adaptive interactions with buildings and systems. In terms of annual source energy, the simulation results of the ZNE homes showed: (1) a decrease of 23–38 percent for occupants with energy austerity behavior and an increase of 120–130 percent for occupants with energy wasteful behavior, compared with the baseline assumption of normal occupants; (2) a variation range of –15 percent to +14 percent for the results using 30-year AMY weather data compared with the baseline results using TMY3 weather data; (3) an increase of 10–13 percent with future weather in Fresno and Riverside and a decrease of 15 percent with San Francisco; and (4) climate change can reduce the gap between the austerity and wasteful consumption. These findings provide insights into how ZNE homes may perform in reality and inform architects, engineers, occupants, and policymakers to pay more attention to occupant behavior on design, operation, and regulations of ZNE homes to ensure energy performance robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Unusual locations of Earth's bow shock on September 24 - 25, 1987: Mach number effects

International Sun Earth Explorer 1 (ISEE 1) and Interplanetary Monitoring Platform 8 (IMP 8) data are used to identify 19 crossings of Earth's bow shock during a 30-hour period following 0000 UT on September 24, 1987. Apparent standoff distances for the shock are calculated for each crossing using two methods and the spacecraft location; one method assumes the average shock shape, while the other assumes a ram pressure-dependent shock shape. The shock's apparent standoff distance, normally approximately 14 R(sub E), is shown to increase from near 10 R(sub E) initially to near 19 R(sub E) during an 8-hour period, followed by an excursion to near 35 R(sub E) (where two IMP 8 shock crossings occur) and an eventual return to values smaller than 19 R(sub E). The Alfven M(sub A) and fast magnetosonic M(sub ms). Mach numbers remain above 2 and the number density above 4/cu cm for almost the entire period. Ram pressure effects produce the initial near-Earth shock location, whereas expansions and contractions of the bow shock due to low Mach number effects account, qualitatively and semiquantitatively, for the timing and existence of almost all the remaining ISEE crossings and both IMP 8 crossings. Significant quantitative differences exist between the apparent standoff distances for the shock crossings and those predicted using the observed plasma parameters and the standard model based on Spreiter et al.'s (1966) gasdynamic equation. These differences can be explained in terms of either a different dependence of the standoff distance on Mach number at low M(sub A) and M(sub ms), or variations in shock shape with M(sub A) and M(sub ms) (becoming increasingly "puffed up" with decreasing M(sub A) and M(sub ms), as expected theoretically), or by a combination of both effects.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an underestimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southem Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1 988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models' seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an under- estimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southern Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗