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At least 109 records · Page 6

Capacity for patterns and sequences in Kanerva's SDM as compared to other associative memory models

The information capacity of Kanerva's Sparse Distributed Memory (SDM) and Hopfield-type neural networks is investigated. Under the approximations used, it is shown that the total information stored in these systems is proportional to the number connections in the network. The proportionality constant is the same for the SDM and Hopfield-type models independent of the particular model, or the order of the model. The approximations are checked numerically. This same analysis can be used to show that the SDM can store sequences of spatiotemporal patterns, and the addition of time-delayed connections allows the retrieval of context dependent temporal patterns. A minor modification of the SDM can be used to store correlated patterns.

Keeler, James D.↗

Dissipating Step Bunches during Crystallization under Transport Control

In studies of crystal formation by the generation and spreading of layers, equidistant step trains are considered unstable---bunches and other spatiotemporal patterns of the growth steps are viewed as ubiquitous. We provide an example to the opposite. We monitor the spatiotemporal dynamics of steps and the resulting step patterns during crystallization of the proteins ferritin and apoferritin using the atomic force microscope. The variations in step velocity and density are not correlated, indicating the lack of a long-range attraction between the steps. We show that (i) because of its coupling to bulk transport, nucleation of new layers is chaotic and occurs at the facet edges, where the interfacial supersaturation is higher; (ii) step bunches self-organize via the competition for supply from the solution; and, (iii) bunches of weakly interacting steps decay as they move along the face. Tests by numerical modeling support the conclusions about the mechanisms underlying our observations. The results from these systems suggest that during crystallization controlled by transport, with weakly or noninteracting growth steps, the stable kinetic state of the surface is an equidistant step train, and step bunches only arise during nucleation of new layers. Since nucleation only occurs at a few sites on the surface, the surface morphology may be controllably patterned or smoothened by locally controlling nucleation.

Lin, Hong↗

A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations

Abstract. One of the major undetermined problems in evaporation (ET) retrieval using thermal infrared remote sensing is the lack of a physically based ground heat flux (G) model and its integration within the surface energy balance (SEB) equation. Here, we present a novel approach based on coupling a thermal inertia (TI)-based mechanistic G model with an analytical surface energy balance model, Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC, version STIC1.2). The coupled model is named STIC-TI. The model is driven by noon–night (13:30 and 01:30 local time) land surface temperature, surface albedo, and a vegetation index from MODIS Aqua in conjunction with a clear-sky net radiation sub-model and ancillary meteorological information. SEB flux estimates from STIC-TI were evaluated with respect to the in situ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements in diverse ecosystems of contrasting aridity in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity analysis revealed substantial sensitivity of STIC-TI-derived fluxes due to the land surface temperature uncertainty. An evaluation of noontime G (Gi) estimates showed 12 %–21 % error across six flux tower sites, and a comparison between STIC-TI versus empirical G models also revealed the substantially better performance of the former. While the instantaneous noontime net radiation (RNi) and latent heat flux (LEi) were overestimated (15 % and 25 %), sensible heat flux (Hi) was underestimated (22 %). Overestimation (underestimation) of LEi (Hi) was associated with the overestimation of net available energy (RNi−Gi) and use of unclosed surface energy balance flux measurements in LEi (Hi) validation. The mean percent deviations in Gi and Hi estimates were found to be strongly correlated with satellite day–night view angle difference in parabolic and linear pattern, and a relatively weak correlation was found between day–night view angle difference versus LEi deviation. Findings from this parameter-sparse coupled G–ET model can make a valuable contribution to mapping and monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem water stress and evaporation using noon–night thermal infrared observations from future Earth observation satellite missions such as TRISHNA, LSTM, and SBG.

Bhattacharya, Bimal K.↗

Amplitude- and frequency-dependent activation of layer II/III neurons by intracortical microstimulation

Intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) has been used for the development of brain machine interfaces. However, further understanding about the spatiotemporal responses of neurons to different electrical stimulation parameters is necessary to inform the design of optimal therapies. In this study, we employed in vivo electrophysiological recording, two-photon calcium imaging, and electric field simulation to evaluate the acute effect of ICMS on layer II/III neurons. Our results show that stimulation frequency non-linearly modulates neuronal responses, whereas the magnitude of responses is linearly correlated to the electric field strength and stimulation amplitude before reaching a steady state. Temporal dynamics of neurons’ responses depends more on stimulation frequency and their distance to the stimulation electrode. In addition, amplitude-dependent post-stimulation suppression was observed within ~500 μm of the stimulation electrode, as evidenced by both calcium imaging and local field potentials. These findings provide insights for selecting stimulation parameters to achieve desirable spatiotemporal specificity of ICMS.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing individual movement, habitat use, and behavior of non-breeding marine birds in relation to prey availability in the US Atlantic

Resource availability is a key factor driving marine bird movements and distributions, but direct information on prey availability is difficult to obtain at relevant scales. We present novel methods for describing multi-scale trophic associations, combining movement analyses of marine birds with estimates of forage fish surface aggregations from digital aerial survey data and species occupancy from bottom trawl survey data. We analyzed satellite telemetry data from northern gannets Morus bassanus , red-throated loons Gavia stellata , and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis in the US Atlantic during the non-breeding period. Using discrete-time hidden Markov models to distinguish area-restricted (i.e. putative foraging) from transit movements, we examined how environmental factors influence movement, and how forage fish species distributions and surface aggregations influence habitat use by gannets and loons that have greater dietary reliance. Our results suggest that chlorophyll a concentration significantly affected movement behavior across species, highlighting the importance of higher-productivity areas around estuaries during colder months when regional productivity is low. Though variable across species and seasons, spatial cross-correlation analysis revealed that herring species (Family Clupeidae), including Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus , may be important resources; it also showed positive spatial correlations with forage fish aggregations. This suggests that prey patch dynamics and factors driving aggregation formation may be as important as species composition. However, spatial patterns were generally low (<0.3), suggesting a mismatch in spatiotemporal resolution, exemplifying the challenges in quantifying trophic relationships in marine systems. Disentangling predator-prey relationships is critical to understanding the mechanisms driving marine bird behavior in rapidly changing marine systems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Ammonia and Methane Dairy Emission Plumes in the San Joaquin Valley of California from Individual Feedlot to Regional Scales

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions are highly uncertain, with high spatiotemporal variability and a lack of widespread in situ measurements. Regional NH3 emission estimates using mass balance or emission ratio approaches are uncertain due to variable NH3 sources and sinks as well as unknown plume correlations with other dairy source tracers. We characterize the spatial distributions of NH3 and methane (CH4) dairy plumes using in situ surface and airborne measurements in the Tulare dairy feedlot region of the San Joaquin Valley, California, during the NASA Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality 2013 field campaign. Surface NH3 and CH4 mixing ratios exhibit large variability with maxima localized downwind of individual dairy feedlots. The geometric mean NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio derived from surface measurements is 0.15 +/- 0.03 ppmv ppmv−1. Individual dairy feedlots with spatially distinct NH3 and CH4 source pathways led to statistically significant correlations between NH3 and CH4 in 68% of the 69 downwind plumes sampled. At longer sampling distances, the NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio decreases 20-30%, suggesting the potential for NH3 deposition as a loss term for plumes within a few kilometers downwind of feedlots. Aircraft boundary layer transect measurements directly above surface mobile measurements in the dairy region show comparable gradients and geometric mean enhancement ratios within measurement uncertainties, even when including NH3 partitioning to submicron particles. Individual NH3 and CH4 plumes sampled at close proximity where losses are minimal are not necessarily correlated due to lack of mixing and distinct source pathways. Our analyses have important implications for constraining NH3 sink and plume variability influences on regional NH3 emission estimates and for improving NH3 emission inventory spatial allocations.

Miller, David J.↗

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Dislocation Patterning in Deforming Crystals: Theory, Computational Predictions and Validation (Final Technical Report)

This project was awarded for an initial period of three years, followed by a no-cost extension for one year and a funded one-year renewal. During the first four years, the project focused on investigating the role of dislocation reactions and dislocation correlation in dislocation patterning in FCC metals. During the fifth year, the scope of research was expanded to investigate the effects of composition inhomogeneity on the mesoscale plastic response of Body-Centered Cubic (BCC) alloys. In addition to its impact on metal hardening during deformation, dislocation patterning provides the microstructure information required to understand phenomena like fracture and recrystallization in metals. The Continuum Dislocation Dynamics (CDD) framework was the methodology used during the first four years, followed by the use of Discrete Dislocation Dynamics (DDD) during the fifth year. CDD is a density-based formalism of dislocation dynamics in which the plastic deformation of crystals is predicted together with the mesoscale dislocation patterns by tracking the space-time evolution of dislocations as driven by the applied stress, short-range and long-range interactions of dislocations, and cross slip. CDD is a crystal mechanics approach in which the plastic constitutive part is replaced with the equations of dislocation dynamics, which is driven by the internal stress via a mobility laws, while the evolution of the density gives the eigenstrain required to update the internal stress itself. The governing equations are thus those of crystal mechanics cast as an eigenstrain problem and those of dislocation transport and reactions. Our investigations during the first four years were driven by the hypothesis that that dislocation patterning is triggered by spatiotemporal dislocation density and internal stress fluctuations, and that such fluctuations influence the collective dislocation dynamic through their effects on the short-range reaction rates and the collective dislocation mobility. This hypothesis was tested by modeling the influence of the dislocation reactions and dislocation correlations on collective dislocation dynamics. The main research components during the first four years were: 1) Reformulation of the CDD framework to integrate the dislocation correlations and dislocation reactions. 2) Simulation of the dislocation correlations and quantifying their contribution to the long-range stress of complex dislocation systems. 3) Computational implementation of the updated CDD model for FCC single crystals and development of an efficient CDD code. 4) Investigation of dislocation patterning in FCC crystals based on the updated CDD model. Some key findings from these investigations were: 1) The patterning of dislocations is initiated by cross slip and internal stress fluctuations, and the refinement of the pattern results from junction formation. 2) Patterning is more prominent under high stress. 3) The correlation stress was found to be a significant part of the mean field stress in continuum representations of dislocation dynamics. During the last year of the project, we have established a method for performing dislocation dynamics in inhomogeneous alloys and demonstrated the impact of composition inhomogeneity on the characteristics of initial yielding and dislocation character in BCC alloys. We also tested this method using an irradiated ferritic alloy in which the composition and dislocation loops effects are both present. In doing so, we have considered two aspects of the role of inhomogeneity, the creation of internal coherency stress due to the dependence of the lattice parameter on the local composition, and the dependence of the dislocation mobility on the local composition. These two aspects resulted in an unexpected behavior of the dislocation system, and, in turn, the yielding behavior of BCC alloys. Key findings include: 1) The composition inhomogeneity in BCC alloys alters the well-known role of screw dislocations by forcing a level of waviness on the average dislocation character, thus destroying the screw character dominance in the yielding observed in pure or homogeneous BCC metals. 2) In the case of irradiated alloys, while composition inhomogeneity by itself and dislocation loops by themselves result in some hardening, the superposition of the two mechanisms does not result in the sum of the two contributions via any known rule. The latter result contradicts the classical works related hardening via multiple mechanisms, which state that various hardening mechanisms can be added linearly or using some Pythagorean additive rule. We were able to rationalize this unexpected result by a closer loop at the origin of the hardening mechanisms themselves, which both involved long-range elastic interactions with dislocations. We reached the conclusion that the hardening resulting from the total stress associated with these two mechanisms (current work) differs from the sum of the effects of the individual stress fields (classical literature). We have also found a major flaw in the classical theory of spinodal hardening. The latter theory never considered the impact of composition undulation on the solute hardening. We have built a new general theory accounting for the effect of solute friction together with the composition undulations on the dislocation configuration at Critical Resolved Shear Stress (CRSS), which is yielding a new definition of the spinodal hardening and new different results. This work is the first to recognize the lack of the role of solute in spinodal hardening theory of alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Role of Lightning in Controlling Interannual Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and OH and its Implications for Climate

Nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) produced by lightning make a major contribution to the production of the dominant tropospheric oxidants (OH and ozone). These oxidants control the lifetime of many trace gases including long-lived greenhouse gases, and control the source-receptor relationship of inter-hemispheric pollutant transport. Lightning is affected by meteorological variability, and therefore represents a potentially important tropospheric chemistry-climate feedback. Understanding how interannual variability (IAV) in lightning affects IAV in ozone and OH in the recent past is important if we are to predict how oxidant levels may change in a future warmer climate. However, lightning parameterizations for chemical transport models (CTMs) show low skill in reproducing even climatological distributions of flash rates from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instruments. We present an optimized regional scaling algorithm for CTMs that enables sufficient sampling of spatiotemporally sparse satellite lightning data from LIS to constrain the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of tropical lightning. We construct a monthly time series of lightning flash rates for 1998-2010 and 35degS-35degN, and find a correlation of IAV in total tropical lightning with El Nino. We use the IAV-constraint to drive a 9-year hindcast (1998-2006) of the GEOS-Chem 3D chemical transport model, and find the increased IAV in LNO(x) drives increased IAV in ozone and OH, improving the model fs ability to simulate both. Although lightning contributes more than any other emission source to IAV in ozone, we find ozone more sensitive to meteorology, particularly convective transport. However, we find IAV in OH to be highly sensitive to lightning NO(x), and the constraint improves the ability of the model to capture the temporal behavior of OH anomalies inferred from observations of methyl chloroform and other gases. The sensitivity of OH is explained using photochemical reaction rates which show a "magnification" effect of the initial lightning NO perturbation on OH primary production, HO(x) recycling, and OH loss frequencies. This influence on OH may represent a negative feedback, if lightning increases in a warming world..

Murray, Lee T.↗

Controlling reversible phase transitions in rare-earth nickelates for novel memory devices

Resistive switching in correlated complex oxides is lucrative for emerging applications in neuromorphic computing, and densely scaled non-volatile memory. Electrical conductance of such complex oxides can be controllable switched across multiple orders of magnitude by either (a) electroforming a conduction channel (e.g., in tungsten oxide), or (b) inducing Mott-Hubbard transition (e.g., in rare-earth nickelates)– both via controlled migration of defects (such as oxygen vacancies) under applied bias. Nevertheless, the promise of such defect-driven electronic transitions are far from realized due to a lack of fundamental understanding of the atomic-scale processes that underlie migration and spatiotemporal evolution of oxygen vacancies over nano-to-mesoscopic length/timescales under applied electric field. In this project, we employ a synergistic integration of density functional theory (DFT) calculations, ab initio/classical molecular dynamics (AIMD/CMD) simulations, machine learning (ML), precision synthesis, and multi-modal X-ray imaging experiments to address this knowledge gap. Such an integrated approach offers to elucidate the correlations between subtle structural distortion and oxidation states; treat localized charge carriers; describe defect/ion transport in the presence of electric field; and, in turn, greatly advance the current understanding of microstructural evolution in complex oxides under applied bias. The fundamental knowledge gained from this work will enable precise control over hierarchical defect structures and unravel new routes to manipulate resistance states in complex oxides. This, in turn, will accelerate design of novel devices with desired set of neural functionalities, and high-speed densely-scaled resistive random access memory technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment

Sediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30-year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave-current-sediment model (SWAN-FVCOM-CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin-wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin-wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long-term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Low‐Cloud Fraction Prediction Through Machine Learning

Abstract In this study, we evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) models (XGBoost) in predicting low‐cloud fraction (LCF), compared to two generations of the community atmospheric model (CAM5 and CAM6) and ERA5 reanalysis data, each having a different cloud scheme. ML models show a substantial enhancement in predicting LCF regarding root mean squared errors and correlation coefficients. The good performance is consistent across the full spectrums of atmospheric stability and large‐scale vertical velocity. Employing an explainable ML approach, we revealed the importance of including the amount of available moisture in ML models for representing spatiotemporal variations in LCF in the midlatitudes. Also, ML models demonstrated marked improvement in capturing the LCF variations during the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition (SCT). This study suggests ML models' great potential to address the longstanding issues of “too few” low clouds and “too rapid” SCT in global climate models.

Geology↗

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Non-Elastic Strain Accumulation in Stanstead Granite During Brittle Creep

Understanding the long-term behavior of brittle rocks requires fundamental consideration of time-dependent strain evolution and brittle creep processes. Previous studies have evaluated sub-critical crack growth during time-dependent deformation and damage evolution in brittle rocks; however, there is an incomplete knowledge of how damage evolves spatially and temporally within the body of intact rocks, where distributed regions of damage interact and coalesce during creep. This paper presents laboratory research focusing on evaluating brittle creep damage processes in Stanstead granite (SG) using 2-dimensional digital image correlation (2D-DIC). In the laboratory, the prismatic SG specimens were loaded beyond an estimated Crack Damage stress threshold (CD) level and then maintained a constant stress to initiate the creep process. DIC was used to characterize full-field spatiotemporal strain evolution, which was then interpreted in the context of local regions of “damage”, determined according to a strain-based criterion. Here, a method was proposed for identifying “existing” and “new” damage regions over specified intervals during the test, followed by spatial clustering of these regions to assess their spatiotemporal evolution. The clustering analysis results demonstrated the extension of existing damage regions was the main damage process during brittle creep, which is consistent with existing models of sub-critical crack growth. In addition, temporal analysis of tensile and shear strains on a point-by-point basis revealed both new damage formation and the strain concentration within existing damaged regions significantly contribute to overall specimen strain during primary creep. In contrast, during secondary creep, increases in specimen deformation are influenced by the accumulation of strains within already damaged regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling Ring Current Proton Fluxes Using Artificial Neural Network and Van Allen Probe Measurements

Abstract Terrestrial ring current dynamics are a critical part of the near‐space environment, in that they directly drive geomagnetic field variations that control particle drifts, and define geomagnetic storms. The present study aims to specify a global and time‐varying distribution of ring current proton using geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters with their history as input. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) model to reproduce proton fluxes measured by the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment instrument onboard Van Allen Probes. By choosing optimal feature parameters and their history length, the model results show a high correlation and a small error between model specifications and satellite measurements. The modeled results well capture energy‐dependent proton dynamics in association with geomagnetic storms, including inward radial diffusion, acceleration and decay. Our ANN model produces proton fluxes with their corresponding 3D spatiotemporal variations, capturing the latitudinal distribution and local time asymmetry that are consistent with observations and that can further inform theory.

Li, Jinxing↗

Annual and sub-seasonal dynamics of a rapidly eroding permafrost coastline along the Beaufort Sea in northern Alaska

Drew Point, an unlithified ice-rich permafrost coastline along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, is among the most rapidly eroding Arctic coastlines, with an average erosion rate of 19 m/yr from 2007 to 2019. We use 16 high-resolution remote sensing datasets (satellite, airborne, and UAV imagery) to analyze erosion mechanisms (thermal abrasion and denudation) in relation to environmental forcings along a 1.5 km stretch of coastline during the 2018 and 2019 open water seasons. In a striking contrast, 2019 exhibited the highest mean erosion rate (34.5 m) within the 2007–2019 record, while 2018 had the second lowest (11.2 m). Block failure contributed to sub-seasonal erosion rates 6 to 21 times higher than thermal denudation, with staggered block fall timing, lag responses post-storm, and non-storm block collapse influencing overall erosion magnitude and timing. To quantify wind effects, we developed wind sums, a metric combining cumulative wind speed and directional data that can be used as a proxy for integrated storm intensity capable of incorporating lagged responses that correlated strongly with erosion at sub-seasonal and annual scales. Our findings emphasize the dominant role of wind during periods of open water and air temperature during the thaw season in driving permafrost coastline erosion dynamics, while highlighting the importance of spatiotemporally high-resolution datasets for understanding Arctic coastal change dynamics.

Alaska Beaufort Sea Coast↗

Traffic safety analysis and model updating for freeways using Bayesian method

Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Incorporating space and time into random forest models for analyzing geospatial patterns of drug-related crime incidents in a major U.S. metropolitan area

The opioid crisis has hit American cities hard, and research on spatial and temporal patterns of drug-related activities including detecting and predicting clusters of crime incidents involving particular types of drugs is useful for distinguishing hot zones where drugs are present that in turn can further provide a basis for assessing and providing related treatment services. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns of more than 52,000 reported incidents of drug-related crime at block group granularity in Chicago, IL between 2016 and 2019. We applied a space-time analysis framework and machine learning approaches to build a model using training data that identified whether certain locations and built environment and sociodemographic factors were correlated with drug-related crime incident patterns, and establish the top contributing factors that underlaid the trends. Space and time, together with multiple driving factors, were incorporated into a random forest model to analyze these changing patterns. We accommodated both spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the model learning process to assist with capturing the changes over time and tested the capabilities of the space-time random forest model by predicting drug-related activity hot zones. Overall, we focused particularly on crime incidents that involved heroin and synthetic drugs as these have been key drug types that have highly impacted cities during the opioid crisis in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Leveraging NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive for Assessing Fire Susceptibility and Potential Impacts over Australia and California

Wildfires are a major concern around the globe because of the immediate impact they have on people's lives, local ecosystems, and the environment. Soil moisture is one of the most important factors that influences wildfire occurrences and spread. However, it is also one of the most challenging hydrological variables to measure routinely and accurately. Therefore, soil moisture is significantly underutilized in operational wildfire risk applications. Thus, the aim here is to use a well-established operational soil moisture product to isolate the soil moisture-fire relationship and assess the utility of using soil moisture as a leading indicator of potential fire risk. We evaluated the value of remotely-sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sensor for monitoring and predicting fire risk in Australia and California. We quantified the relationship between observed fire activity and soil moisture conditions and analyzed the soil moisture conditions for two extreme fire events. Our findings show that fire activity is strongly associated with soil moisture anomalies. Lagged correlation analysis demonstrated that a remote-sensing based soil moisture product could predict fire activity with a 1-2 month lead-time. Soil moisture anomalies consistently decreased in the months preceding fire occurrence, often from normal to drier conditions, according to a spatiotemporal analysis of soil moisture in two extreme fire events. Overall, our findings indicate that soil moisture conditions prior to large wildfires can aid in their prediction and operational satellite-based soil moisture products such as the one used here have real value for supporting wildfire susceptibility and impacts.

Nazmus Sazib↗