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NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )

Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS1979

The forecasting center of Meudon, France

Main features of solar activity are described in relation to solar and geophysical forecasting. Spectroheliograms, radio and X-ray data, white light coronal observations, particles data, photospheric images, and photospheric magnetic fields are among the types of data used to identify the active centers and flares of the Sun. Forecasting and identification of geomagnetic activity is also discussed. The forecasting technique is described along with the types of users.

Simon, P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Direct Imaging of Stellar Surfaces: Results from the Stellar Imager (SI) Vision Mission Study

The Stellar Imager (SI) is a UV-Optical, Space-Based Interferometer designed to enable 0.1 milli-arcsecond (mas) spectral imaging of stellar surfaces and stellar interiors (via asteroseismology) and of the Universe in general. SI is identified as a "Flagship and Landmark Discovery Mission'' in the 2005 Sun Solar System Connection (SSSC) Roadmap and as a candidate for a "Pathways to Life Observatory'' in the Exploration of the Universe Division (EUD) Roadmap (May, 2005). The ultra-sharp images of the Stellar Imager will revolutionize our view of many dynamic astrophysical processes: The 0.1 mas resolution of this deep-space telescope will transform point sources into extended sources, and snapshots into evolving views. SI's science focuses on the role of magnetism in the Universe, particularly on magnetic activity on the surfaces of stars like the Sun. SI's prime goal is to enable long-term forecasting of solar activity and the space weather that it drives in support of the Living With a Star program in the Exploration Era. SI will also revolutionize our understanding of the formation of planetary systems, of the habitability and climatology of distant planets, and of many magneto-hydrodynamically controlled processes in the Universe. In this paper we will discuss the results of the SI Vision Mission Study, elaborating on the science goals of the SI Mission and a mission architecture that could meet those goals.

Carpenter, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2006

Stellar Imager (SI) Space Mission: Stellar Magnetic Activity

The Stellar Imager (SI) is a UV-Optical, Space-Based interferometer designed to enable 0.1 milli-arcsecond (mas) spectral imaging of stellar surfaces and stellar interiors (via asteroseismology) and of the Universe in general. SI is identified as a "Flagship and Landmark Discovery Mission" in the 2005 Sun Solar System Connection (SSSC) Roadmap and as a candidate for a "Pathways to Life Observatory" in the Exploration of the Universe Division (EUD) Roadmap (May, 2005). The ultra-sharp images of the Stellar Imager will revolutionize our view of many dynamic astrophysical processes: The 0.1 mas resolution of this deep-space telescope will transform point sources into extended sources, and snapshots into evolving views. SI'S science focuses on the role of magnetism in the Universe, particularly on magnetic activity on the surfaces of stars like the Sun. SI'S prime goal is to enable long-term forecasting of solar activity and the space weather that it drives in support of the Living With a Star program in the Exploration Era. SI will also revolutionize our understanding of the formation of planetary systems, of the habitability and climatology of distant planets, and of many magneto-hydrodynamically controlled processes in the Universe. In this paper we will discuss the science goals of the SI Mission and a mission architecture that could meet those goals.

Carpenter, K. G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2007

Forecast of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on the Disturbed Days Precursor

R. J. Thompson (1993, Solar Physics 148, 383) exhibited a significant linear relationship between the number of geomagnetically disturbed days (those that exceed some threshold value of the Ap or nu index) in a solar cycle and the sum of the peak sunspot number in that cycle and the next cycle. Thus, the number of disturbed days during a full cycle, together with the peak sunspot number in that cycle, is a predictor of the amplitude of the next cycle. The work reported here applies Thompson's method to the current cycle. Linear relationships as described above are derived both for the pure aa record (1868-2006) and for a composite of aa (1868-1931) and Ap (1932-2006). For the composite record, the relationship between aa and Ap is determined cycle-by-cycle during the period of overlap. The method is tested for sensitivity to the adopted Ap (or equivalent aa) threshold. The highest smoothed monthly sunspot number for Cycle 24 is forecasted to be R(sub z) = 115 plus or minus 30, where the uncertainty is conservatively based on the full spread of the data around the fitted line in the sunspot number direction. In terms of smoothed monthly 10.7-cm radio flux, the forecast is F10.7 = 164 plus or minus 28.

Rabin, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Radiation shielding estimates for manned Mars space flight

In the analysis of the required radiation shielding protection of spacecraft during a Mars flight, specific effects of solar activity (SA) on the intensity of galactic and solar cosmic rays were taken into consideration. Three spaceflight periods were considered: (1) maximum SA; (2) minimum SA; and (3) intermediate SA, when intensities of both galactic and solar cosmic rays are moderately high. Scenarios of spaceflights utilizing liquid-propellant rocket engines, low- and intermediate-thrust nuclear electrojet engines, and nuclear rocket engines, all of which have been designed in the Soviet Union, are reviewed. Calculations were performed on the basis of a set of standards for radiation protection approved by the U.S.S.R. State Committee for Standards. It was found that the lowest estimated mass of a Mars spacecraft, including the radiation shielding mass, obtained using a combination of a liquid propellant engine with low and intermediate thrust nuclear electrojet engines, would be 500-550 metric tons.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1979

KAZIA: A computer system for solar-terrestrial data processing and objective prediction

A computer system for solar terrestrial data processing is described. The data base consists mainly of information contained in Ursigrams exchanged between the IUWDS Regional Warning Centers. The system structure and its functions are presented. Solar flare forecasting is described, as one of the prediction techniques incorporated in the system.

Stasiewicz, K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Satellite lifetime prediction

Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.

Wittenstein, Gerald↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Dream of a Mission: Stellar Imager and Seismic Probe

The Stellar Imager and Seismic Probe (SISP) is a mission to understand the various effects of magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate them, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars in which they exist. The ultimate goal is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity on times scales ranging up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on astrobiology and life in the Universe. The road to that goal will revolutionize our understanding of stars and stellar systems, the building blocks of the Universe. SISP will zoom in on what today - with few exceptions - we only know as point sources, revealing processes never before seen, thus providing a tool to astrophysics as fundamental as the microscope is to the study of life on Earth. SISP is an ultraviolet aperture-synthesis imager with 8-10 telescopes with meter-class apertures, and a central hub with focal-plane instrumentation that allows spectrophotometry in passbands as narrow as a few Angstroms up to hundreds of Angstroms. SISP will image stars and binaries with one hundred to one thousand resolution elements on their surface, and sound their interiors through asteroseismology to image internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations; this will provide accurate knowledge of stellar structure and evolution and complex transport processes, and will impact numerous branches of (astro)physics ranging from the Big Bang to the future of the Universe. Fitting naturally within the NASA long-term time line, SISP complements defined missions, and with them will show us entire other solar systems, from the central star to their orbiting planets.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Stellar Imager (SI) Mission Concept

The Stellar Imager (SI) is envisioned as a space-based, UV-optical interferometer composed of ten or more one-meter class elements distributed with a maximum baseline of 0.5 km. It will image stars and binaries with 100 to 1000 resolution elements on their surface and enable long-term studies of stellar magnetic activity patterns and their evolution with time for comparison with those on the sun. It will also sound their interiors through asteroseismology to image internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations. SI will enable us to understand the various effects of magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate them, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars in which they exist. The ultimate goal is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity on times scales ranging up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on astrobiology and life in the Universe. The road to that goal will revolutionize our understanding of stars and stellar systems, the building blocks of the Universe. Fitting naturally within the NASA long-term time line, SI complements defined missions, and with them will show us entire other solar systems, from the central star to their orbiting planets.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗