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At least 109 records · Page 6

Additive friction stir deposition induced stress ripples in aluminum alloy

In additive manufacturing, modification of the viscosity of softened or molten metal plays a significant role in the development of mechanical properties distribution. Similar to soft polymers, molten or softened metal usually exhibits vastly different viscoelastic properties. During scratching tests, viscoelastic polymers undergo spatiotemporal stress development and relaxation, causing stress ripples to form on their surfaces. Here, it is observed that friction stir-based solid-state manufacturing can yield similar stress ripples on softened aluminum alloys due to the linear motion of the deposition tool. Softened aluminum alloys exhibit viscoelastic and viscoplastic responses similar to polymeric material during the solid-state deposition process. In the final product, residual stress ripples appear on the surface of the metal alloy due to periodic residual stress relaxation, leading to oscillatory behavior from the bulk mechanical properties of the material. The orientation of the in-built stress pattern formed in the bulk of the additively manufactured metal alloy underneath the visually evident onion ring-like surface pattern formation is diametrically in the opposite direction. The experimentally observed results are consistent with analytical calculation and numerical simulations in terms of behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electronically driven collapse of the bulk modulus in δ -plutonium

Plutonium metal exhibits an anomalously large softening of its bulk modulus at elevated temperatures that is made all the more extraordinary by the finding that it occurs irrespective of whether the thermal expansion coefficient is positive, negative, or zero—representing an extreme departure from conventional Grüneisen scaling. We show here that the cause of this softening is the compressibility of plutonium’s thermally excited electronic configurations, which has thus far not been considered in thermodynamic models. We show that when compressible electronic configurations are thermally activated, they invariably give rise to a softening of the bulk modulus regardless of the sign of their contribution to the thermal expansion. The electronically driven softening of the bulk modulus is shown to be in good agreement with elastic moduli measurements performed on the gallium-stabilized δ phase of plutonium over a range of temperatures and compositions and is shown to grow rapidly at small concentrations of gallium and at high temperatures, where it becomes extremely sensitive to hydrostatic pressure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Theoretical Study of Doping Evolution of Phonons in High-Temperature Cuprate Superconductors

Hole-doped high-temperature copper oxide-based superconductors (cuprates) exhibit complex phase diagrams where electronic orders like a charge density wave (CDW) and superconductivity (SC) appear at low temperatures. The origins of these electronic orders are still open questions due to their complex interplay and correlated nature. These electronic orders can modify the phonons in the system, which has also been experimentally found in several cuprates as a softening in the phonon frequency at the CDW vector. Recent experiments have revealed that the softening in phonons in cuprates due to CDW shows intriguing behavior with increasing hole doping. Hole doping can also change the underlying Fermi surface. Therefore, it is an interesting question whether the doping-induced change in the Fermi surface can affect the softening of phonons, which in turn can reveal the nature of the electronic orders present in the system. In this work, we investigate this question by studying the softening of phonons in the presence of CDW and SC within a perturbative approach developed in an earlier work. We compare the results obtained within the working model to some experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Effect of post-weld heat treatment on microstructure and mechanical properties of rotary inertia friction welded dissimilar 422-4140 martensitic steel piston joints

The study investigated how post‐weld heat treatment (PWHT) temperature affects the microstructure and localized deformation/fracture during bend testing of rotary inertia friction welds (RIFW) between AISI 422 stainless steel and AISI 4140 steel. RIFW produced a fully martensitic interface with approximately 550 HV hardness in both the thermo-mechanically affected (TMAZ) and heat‐affected zones (HAZ). Due to differences in temper resistance, the 4140 TMAZ/HAZ softened progressively under PWHT temperatures from 525 °C to 700 °C, while the 422 TMAZ unexpectedly maintained about 550 HV up to 600 °C before significantly softening at temperatures ≥625 °C. This asymmetric softening generated steep hardness gradients across the interface at temperatures ≤600 °C. Furthermore, carbon migration across the interface was minimal up to 600 °C, moderate at 625 °C, and by 700 °C produced a carbide‐rich eutectoid layer in the 422 TMAZ alongside a carbon‐depleted soft ferrite layer in the 4140 TMAZ. Strain during bending was PWHT‐dependent, concentrating on the 4140 side; in as-welded joints, the high hardness led to deformation and crack initiation in the base metals, whereas in PWHT samples, cracking initiated in the softened 4140 TMAZ near the interface. The intermediate PWHT temperature of 625 °C offered the best balance of limited carbon diffusion across the interface, relatively low peak weld hardness and minimized hardness gradients across the interface, more homogenous deformation, and good bend test performance.

4140 low-alloy steel↗

The high temperature deformation in cyclic loading of a single crystal nickel-base superalloy

The high temperature cyclic stress softening response of the single crystal nickel-base superalloy PWA 1480 was investigated. Specimens oriented near the 001- and 111-lines were tested at 1050 C in low-cycle fatigue and then microstructurally evaluated. The 001- and 111-line specimens had dissimilar flow behavior in monotonic tensile tests, but comparable softening in low-cycle fatigue. This softening was accompanied by rapid generation of dislocation networks at the gamma-gamma-prime interfaces and by a slower time-dependent coarsening of gamma-prime precipitates. Due to the rapid formation of a dislocation substructure at the gamma-gamma-prime interfaces, the cyclic stress softening could be modeled with an existing theory which related cyclic stress to the evolving microstructure and dislocation structure.

Gabb, T. P.↗

Test and Analysis Correlation for a Y-Joint Specimen for a Composite Cryotank

The Composite Cryotank Technology Demonstration (CCTD) project under NASA's Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) developed space technologies using advanced composite materials. Under CCTD, NASA funded the Boeing Company to design and test a number of element-level joint specimens as a precursor to a 2.4-m diameter composite cryotank. Preliminary analyses indicated that the y-joint in the cryotank had low margins of safety; hence the y-joint was considered to be a critical design region. The y-joint design includes a softening strip wedge to reduce localized shear stresses at the skirt/dome interface. In this paper, NASA-developed analytical models will be correlated with the experimental results of a series of positive-peel y-joint specimens from Boeing tests. Initial analytical models over-predicted the experimental strain gage readings in the far-field region by approximately 10%. The over-prediction was attributed to uncertainty in the elastic properties of the laminate and a mismatch between the thermal expansion of the strain gages and the laminate. The elastic properties of the analytical model were adjusted to account for the strain gage differences. The experimental strain gages also indicated a large non-linear effect in the softening strip region that was not predicted by the analytical model. This non-linear effect was attributed to delamination initiating in the softening strip region at below 20% of the failure load for the specimen. Because the specimen was contained in a thermally insulated box during cryogenic testing to failure, delamination initiation and progression was not visualized during the test. Several possible failure initiation locations were investigated, and a most likely failure scenario was determined that correlated well with the experimental data. The most likely failure scenario corresponded to damage initiating in the softening strip and delamination extending to the grips at final failure.

Mason, Brian H.↗

Unraveling the role of temperature on the onset of ejecta formation at atomic scales

Shock wave interactions with perturbations on a free surface can lead to the inversion and growth of the perturbation and eventual ejection of a jet of material, referred to as an ejecta microjet, from shocked surfaces. Here, this study carries out large-scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using single-crystal Cu and Sn systems with a pre-existing groove to characterize the localized gradients in temperatures and pressures generated that render the microjet formation. MD simulations are carried out for three loading orientations (along the [001], [011], and [111] directions) and shock pressures ranging from 16 GPa to 100 GPa to understand the role of temperatures generated at the groove vertex on the formation of ejecta. The simulations suggest that the interaction of the shock wave with the groove results in a localized increase in temperatures, leading to localized softening at the groove vertex and the generation of an ejecta microjet. For Cu systems, the simulations suggest that the orientation effects on shock wave structures, velocities, and localized softening affect the ejecta formation at low pressures. Jetting is only observed when temperatures at the groove vertex are high enough to induce localized softening (close to melting temperature), and the jet velocity increases with shock pressure. In contrast, the loading orientation is rendered inconsequential for Sn systems due to the melting of the material during shock compression at the pressures chosen. The jet velocities are similar, regardless of crystal orientation in Sn systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of non-uniform void distributions on the yielding of metals

High-throughput (several thousand) calculations have been carried out to investigate the yield behavior of porous materials with randomly distributed pores, porosity levels over four orders of magnitude and up to a hundred pores per simulation box. To this end, a Galerkin based fast Fourier transform (FFT) formulation was enhanced to deal with high phase contrast materials. In addition, GPU parallelization was employed in solving the governing equation for strain fluctuations using a Krylov iterative solver. Emphasis is laid on the conditions under which percolation of plastically non-deforming zones through the porous network emerge, a regime termed unhomogeneous yielding. By way of contrast, the regime where the plastic strain fluctuations (associated with the heterogeneous void-matrix aggregate) fall below the percolation threshold is defined as homogeneous yielding. Here, we find that nonuniform pore distributions only affect unhomogeneous yielding and have a universal softening effect. The extent of this distribution softening is analyzed as a function of porosity, cell size and number of realizations. Whether the uncovered universal distribution softening has direct implications on failure resistance of porous materials is discussed.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Effect of secondary gas-phase reactions (SGR) in pyrolysis of carbon feedstocks for anisotropic carbon materials production – 3: Modifying non-coking coal tar through co-pyrolysis of coal with linear low-density polyethylene and high-impact polystyrene

Herein, this work focuses on co-pyrolysis experiments of Utah Sufco coal with linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high-impact polystyrene (HIPS). These two plastic types have differing pyrolysis chemistries and have different hydrogen transfer behavior. Similar to earlier work in this series of papers, controlled secondary gas-phase reactions during pyrolysis were used to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. Co-pyrolysis tests were performed with feed plastic percentages ranging from 10-20 wt% and pyrolysis SGR temperatures ranging from 800-900°C. Analyses of the intermediate tar products showed that oxygen contents and aromaticity were substantially different, depending on the plastic, and resulting pitch softening points and mesophase contents also varied greatly depending on the starting plastic feedstock used. Most of the synergies observed in the co-pyrolysis results were negative, except for the oxygen content. Oxygen contents were higher than expected when LLDPE was used, resulting in reactive pitches with softening points > 350°C. On the other hand, oxygen contents were lower than expected when HIPS was used, resulting in less reactive pitches. Ultimately, only the HIPS/coal samples created at the SGR temperature of 900°C had reasonable softening points at or under 350°C, making them the only samples created in this work potentially suitable for mesophase pitch-based carbon fiber production. The success in creating fusible mesophase pitches from co-pyrolyzing HIPS with Utah Sufco coal is likely attributed to the fact that polystyrene is a stronger hydrogen acceptor rather than donor, which should facilitate more cracking rather than stabilizing tar oxygen functional groups, making the tar species ultimately less reactive during thermal conversion to mesophase pitch.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Correlation between microstructure and residual stress formation in friction stir welded armor steels characterized by neutron diffraction

Friction stir welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process that minimizes the heat-affected zone (HAZ) compared with fusion-based arc welding, making it well suited for joining martensitic armor steels where hardness and ballistic resistance are critical. This study investigates residual stress formation in three defect-free FSW butt-joint configurations relevant to armored-vehicle fabrication: similar rolled homogeneous armor (RHA–RHA, Case 1), similar high-hardness armor (HHA–HHA, Case 2), and dissimilar HHA–RHA (Case 3) joints produced under temperature-controlled conditions (770 °C). Neutron diffraction was employed to quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of residual stresses in the longitudinal, transverse, and normal directions and to correlate them with weld microstructure and hardness. Tensile residual stresses were concentrated in the softened HAZ, reaching approximately 300 MPa for Case 2 and 400 MPa for Case 1 (≈50–70 % of the base-metal yield strength; ∼581 MPa for RHA and ∼566 MPa for HHA), while compressive residual stresses dominated the stir zone. The spatial extent of tensile stresses scaled with the width of the softened HAZ, which was largest in the dissimilar HHA–RHA joint and smallest in the HHA–HHA joint. Full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM) analysis revealed low microstrain in overtempered HAZ regions and high microstrain in the stir zone associated with severe plastic deformation and fresh martensite formation. This work demonstrates that residual stress evolution in FSW of martensitic armor steels is governed not primarily by peak temperature or thermal contraction, as inferred from fusion-welding analogies, but by the competition between transformation-induced volumetric expansion and tempering-induced stress relaxation. The relative dominance of these mechanisms is shown to depend on alloy hardenability and local thermal history, leading to more extensive HAZ softening and broader tensile stress regions in the lower-hardenability RHA steel. These findings establish a transferable mechanistic framework for optimizing solid-state joining strategies in high-strength steels and other transformation-hardening alloys beyond armor applications.

Friction stir welding↗

Elastic Properties of Plasma-Exposed Tungsten Predicted by Molecular-Dynamics Simulations

We report results of systematic molecular-dynamics computations of the elastic properties of single-crystalline tungsten containing structural defects, voids and overpressurized He nanobubbles, related to plasma exposure of tungsten serving as a plasma- facing component (PFC) in nuclear fusion devices. Our computations reveal that the empty voids are centers of dilatation resulting in development of tensile stress in the tungsten matrix, whereas He-filled voids (nanobubbles) introduce compressive stress in the plasma-exposed tungsten. We find that the dependence of the elastic moduli of plasma-exposed tungsten, namely, the bulk, Young, and shear modulus, on its void fraction follows a universal exponential scaling relation. We also find that the elastic moduli of plasma-exposed tungsten soften substantially as a function of He content in the tungsten matrix, following an exponential scaling relation; this He-induced exponential softening is in addition to the softening caused in the matrix with increasing temperature. A systematic characterization of the dependence of the elastic moduli on the He bubble size reveals that He bubble growth affects significantly both the bulk modulus and the Poisson ratio of plasma-exposed tungsten, while its effect on the Young and shear moduli of the plasma-exposed material is weak. Our findings contribute directly to the development of a structure-properties database that is required for the predictive modeling of the dynamical response of PFCs in nuclear fusion devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Determination of single-crystal elastic moduli of Li RE F 4 ( RE =Y, Gd, and Tb) by resonant ultrasound spectroscopy

The tetragonal fluoro-scheelite Li RE F 4 compounds (RE = rare earth) have been shown to exhibit a variety of useful optical and magnetic properties. While LiYF 4 has been widely studied, many of the fundamental thermodynamic properties of other members of this family remain unknown. Here, we report the complete elastic tensors (C ij ) of single-crystalline LiYF 4 , LiTbF 4 , and LiGdF 4 using resonant ultrasound spectroscopy and density functional theory (DFT). Here we compare the results for LiYF 4 with prior experimental results using time-of-flight ultrasound methods. This is the first report, however, of the experimental elastic tensors of LiTbF 4 and LiGdF 4 . The present results point to a softening of the elastic moduli of the Li RE F 4 system when Y is replaced by the larger ionic radius of Tb or Gd. Furthermore, we find that just 0.3% doping with Nd on the Y site also leads to a slight softening of the moduli. The variation of the elastic moduli as a function of temperature up to 216°C was also measured. A nearly linear softening of all seven independent elastic moduli was observed with increasing temperature. Phonon dispersions and phonon density of states obtained by DFT support the experimental finding of a significantly higher sound velocity due to lighter Y atoms in LiYF 4 , as compared to heavier LiTbF 4 and LiGdF 4 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evolution of charge density wave soft phonon modes in Pd 𝑥 ⁢ErTe 3

Here, we investigated the lattice dynamics of quasi-two-dimensional Pd-intercalated ErTe 3 in relation to its charge-density-wave (CDW) transitions by means of x-ray diffuse and meV-resolution inelastic x-ray scattering. In pristine ErTe 3 , CDW order develops at orthogonal in-plane wave vectors q$^𝑐_1$ =(0,0,0.29) (the 𝑐−CDW ) and q$^𝑎_2 $= (0.31,0,0) (the 𝑎−CDW ), with transition temperatures $𝑇^𝑐_1$ = 270K and $𝑇^𝑎_2$ = 160K, respectively. Remarkably, we observe diffuse x-ray scattering already near the higher transition temperature $𝑇^𝑐_1$ along 𝑎−CDW but at a slightly different wave vector q$^𝑎_1$ = (0.29,0,0). Inelastic x-ray scattering for Pd 0.01 ⁢ErTe 3 shows that a partial phonon softening at q$^𝑎_1$, underscoring the strong competition between ordering tendencies along the nearly equivalent in-plane axes of the orthorhombic lattice. For intercalation levels 𝑥 ≥ 0.02, the 𝑎−CDW state is suppressed. Nevertheless, a similar correlation between phonon softening and diffuse scattering persists along the [100] direction, again observed at q$^𝑎_1$ = (0.29,0,0) and $𝑇^𝑐_1$. These findings suggest that the 𝑎−CDW is fully suppressed for 𝑥 ≥ 0.02, and that the residual diffuse scattering at originates from the partial phonon softening associated with the 𝑐−CDW, reflected by the near equality of the absolute size of q$^𝑐_1$ and q$^𝑎_1$.

Maity, Avishek [Technische Univ. München, Garching↗

Large Kohn Anomaly and Phonon Collapse Induced by Charge Density Wave in UPt 2⁢ Si 2

Using high-energy-resolution inelastic x-ray scattering, we observe anomalous softening and damping of the transverse acoustic phonon in UPt 2 ⁢Si 2 as the system is cooled toward the charge density wave (CDW) transition temperature 𝑇 CDW . The phonon exhibits a marked Kohn-type anomaly around the CDW wave vector 𝑄 CDW and becomes overdamped within a finite momentum range already well above 𝑇 CDW . The dispersion anomaly is consistent with potential Fermi surface nesting, which together with the extended phonon collapse indicates strong electron-phonon coupling. The transition temperature estimated from the phonon softening is markedly lower than 𝑇 CDW , consistent with a primarily electronic instability rather than a phonon-driven transition. In conclusion, our results establish UPt 2⁢ Si 2 as a prime example of a strongly correlated electron CDW system with exceptionally strong electron-phonon coupling driving phonon softening and collapse.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Magnetoelastic interactions in SrCu 2 (BO 3 ) 2 studied by Raman scattering experiments and first principles calculations

Dynamic and static crystal lattice properties of SrCu 2 (BO 3 ) 2 are studied by means of Raman scattering, magnetostriction, and thermal expansion measurements in magnetic fields to 45 T. Raman experiments versus temperature reveal that some phonon modes show an unusual behavior: their frequencies soften (modes at 200 and 450 cm –1 ) while others harden (modes at 385 and 478 cm –1 ) when decreasing the temperature below 15 K. Magneto-Raman experiments show that their field dependence correlates with their respective temperature dependencies; e.g., modes that are hardened with increasing temperature also harden with applied magnetic fields and modes that become softer with temperature also soften with applied fields. We use density functional theory to successfully model and compute the energies of these modes, classifying them into two types: pantograph (modes that soften when decreasing the temperature) and nonpantograph. We conclude that the former involves the modification of the intradimer exchange interaction J and the latter the interdimer J'. Lastly, dilatometry is used to correlate field-dependent Raman modes to the closing of the spin gap as well as fractional-magnetization stripe states M = 1/4 M s and M = 1/3 M s , where M s is the saturation magnetization.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Adaptation of Wallace's approach to the specific heat of elemental solids with significant intrinsic anharmonicity, particularly the light actinide metals

The quasiharmonic approximation is the most common method for modeling the specific heat of solids; however, it fails to capture the effects of intrinsic anharmonicity. In this study, we introduce the “elastic softening approximation,” an alternative approach to modeling intrinsic anharmonic effects on thermodynamic quantities, which is grounded in Wallace's thermodynamic framework that tracks entropy changes resulting from the continuous change (e.g., softening) of phonons as a function of temperature. A key finding of our study is a correlation between Poisson's ratio and the differential rate of phonon softening at finite frequencies, compared to lower frequencies relevant to elastic moduli measurements. We observe that elemental solids such as α -Be, diamond, Al, Cu, In, W, Au, and Pb, which span a wide range of Poisson's ratios and exhibit varying degrees of intrinsic anharmonicity, consistently follow this trend. When applied to α -U, α -Pu, and δ -Pu, our method reveals unusually large anharmonic phonon contributions at elevated temperatures across all three light actinide metals. These findings are attributed to the unique combination of enhanced covalency and softer elastic moduli inherent in the actinides, potentially influenced by their 5 f -electron bonding. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗