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At least 109 records · Page 6

Evaluation of the Williams-type model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

The Williams-type yield model is based on multiple regression analysis of historial time series data at CRD level pooled to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analysis include USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, soil texture and topographic information, and variables derived from these. Technologic trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadratic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-1979) demonstrate that biases are small and performance based on root mean square appears to be acceptable for the intended AgRISTARS large area applications. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple, and not costly. It consideres scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.

Barnett, T. L.↗

Core Body Temperature Predictions Using Metabolic Energy Expenditure and Heart Rate During Simulated Extravehicular Activity

Long duration spaceflight missions will require crew to become more autonomous in conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) without direct communication with Mission Control for biomedical support. To enable such autonomy, we are developing a Crew State and Risk Model (CSRM) as a collection of key physiology domains that drive EVA crew capabilities and workloads. One model component of CSRM is human thermal regulation. In this paper, customized development of a baseline model to predict core body temperature is presented using physiology inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. The model development dataset included a baseline study where participants (n=6, equal male and female) performed a 5-hour EVA in a two-part session while wearing a hybrid space suit simulator (HS3). The first session included an end-to-end EVA traversing 1500 meters to a geology site and traversing back to a habitat conducting geology, payload relocation, and maintenance operations every 500 meters. The second session included standalone tasks of a 2000-meter traverse followed by geology tasks. Thermal measures of core body temperature, local skin temperature, liquid cooling garment temperature, heart rate, and metabolic rate were collected through the test duration. Multiple regression was used to build a linear equation to predict core body temperature from inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. Heat storage was calculated via predicted core body temperature plus LCG and skin temperatures. The model was tested against a dataset from a pressurized suited test (n=6, equal male and female) in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) conducting similar end-to-end EVA and standalone tasks. Predicted error of the model against the raw test cases was 0.2±0.15 °C. The baseline prediction of core body temperature using heart rates and metabolic rates allows for simple real-time tracking from data collected in-flight to monitor crew consumables and thermal flight limits during EVA.

Bradley Hoffmann↗

Vegetation spatial variability and its effect on vegetation indices

Landsat MSS data were used to simulate low resolution satellite data, such as NOAA AVHRR, to quantify the fractional vegetation cover within a pixel and relate the fractional cover to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the simple ratio (SR). The MSS data were converted to radiances from which the NDVI and SR values for the simulated pixels were determined. Each simulated pixel was divided into clusters using an unsupervised classification program. Spatial and spectral analysis provided a means of combining clusters representing similar surface characteristics into vegetated and non-vegetated areas. Analysis showed an average error of 12.7 per cent in determining these areas. NDVI values less than 0.3 represented fractional vegetated areas of 5 per cent or less, while a value of 0.7 or higher represented fractional vegetated areas greater than 80 per cent. Regression analysis showed a strong linear relation between fractional vegetation area and the NDVI and SR values; correlation values were 0.89 and 0.95 respectively. The range of NDVI values calculated from the MSS data agrees well with field studies.

Ormsby, J. P.↗

Development of the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Dataset

This study develops the surface BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) product of the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Dataset (AGHSD), based on the corresponding MODIS products, to support the NASA Surface Biology and Geology mission development. A main challenge in deriving a hyperspectral dataset from the multi-band satellite products is how to identify a succinct yet robust algorithm that allow us to infer BRDF at unobserved wavelengths based on the few observed bands. Using the theories of radiative transfer in vegetation canopies, we arrive at a simple equation that accurately approximates hyperspectral surface BRDF as the weighted sum of components from the soil and the vegetation. Each of the components is modeled by the product of the spectrally-dependent optical properties of a surface element (the spectra of the soil surface reflectance, the leaf single albedo, or the canopy scattering coefficient) and a spectrally-independent bidirectional scattering function. The optical properties of the soil and the vegetation can be obtained from existing spectral libraries or model simulations. The bidirectional scattering functions are represented by the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse BRDF model, where the linear coefficients are estimated with regression analysis from the multi-band MODIS data. We validate the algorithm with simulations by Monte Carlo Ray Tracing model experiments, and the results are highly consistent with the theoretic derivation. We apply the algorithm to generate the AGHSD BRDF product at 1km and 8-day resolutions for the year of 2019. The results are biogeochemically and physically coherent and consistent, and thus serve the goal to support the science and application development of the SBG community.

Hyperspectral↗

Design and Development of a Model to Simulate 0-G Treadmill Running Using the European Space Agency's Subject Loading System

Develop a model that simulates a human running in 0 G using the European Space Agency s (ESA) Subject Loading System (SLS). The model provides ground reaction forces (GRF) based on speed and pull-down forces (PDF). DESIGN The theoretical basis for the Running Model was based on a simple spring-mass model. The dynamic properties of the spring-mass model express theoretical vertical GRF (GRFv) and shear GRF in the posterior-anterior direction (GRFsh) during running gait. ADAMs VIEW software was used to build the model, which has a pelvis, thigh segment, shank segment, and a spring foot (see Figure 1).the model s movement simulates the joint kinematics of a human running at Earth gravity with the aim of generating GRF data. DEVELOPMENT & VERIFICATION ESA provided parabolic flight data of subjects running while using the SLS, for further characterization of the model s GRF. Peak GRF data were fit to a linear regression line dependent on PDF and speed. Interpolation and extrapolation of the regression equation provided a theoretical data matrix, which is used to drive the model s motion equations. Verification of the model was conducted by running the model at 4 different speeds, with each speed accounting for 3 different PDF. The model s GRF data fell within a 1-standard-deviation boundary derived from the empirical ESA data. CONCLUSION The Running Model aids in conducting various simulations (potential scenarios include a fatigued runner or a powerful runner generating high loads at a fast cadence) to determine limitations for the T2 vibration isolation system (VIS) aboard the International Space Station. This model can predict how running with the ESA SLS affects the T2 VIS and may be used for other exercise analyses in the future.

Caldwell, E. C.↗

Comparison of CEAS and Williams-type models for spring wheat yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

The CEAS and Williams-type yield models are both based on multiple regression analysis of historical time series data at CRD level. The CEAS model develops a separate relation for each CRD; the Williams-type model pools CRD data to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analyses are USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, and variables derived from these. The Williams-type model also used soil texture and topographic information. Technological trend is represented in both by piecewise linear functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test of each model (1970-1979) demonstrate that the models are very similar in performance in all respects. Both models are about equally objective, adequate, timely, simple, and inexpensive. Both consider scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail. Neither provides a good current measure of modeled yield reliability. The CEAS model is considered very slightly preferable for AgRISTARS applications.

Barnett, T. L.↗

Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling

This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.

Munson, John C.↗

A Note on the Relationship between Temperature and Water Vapor in Quasi-Equilibrium and Climate States

An ideal and simple formulation is successfully derived that well represents a quasi-linear relationship found between the domain-averaged water vapor, q (mm), and temperature, T (K), fields obtained from a series of quasi-equilibrium (long-term) simulations for the Tropics using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Earlier model work showed that the forced maintenance of two different wind profiles in the Tropics leads to two different equilibrium states. Investigating this finding required investigation of the slope of the moisture-temperature relations, which turns out to be linear in the Tropics. The extra-tropical climate equilibriums become more complex, but insight on modeling sensitivity can be obtained by linear stepwise regression of the integrated temperature and humidity. A globally curvilinear moisture-temperature distribution, similar to the famous Clausius-Clapeyron curve (i.e., saturated water vapor pressure versus temperature), is then found in this study. Such a genuine finding clarifies that the dynamics are crucial to the climate (shown in the earlier work) but the thermodynamics adjust. The range of validity of this result is further examined herein. The GCE-modeled tropical domain-averaged q and T fields form a linearly-regressed "q-T" slope that genuinely resides within an ideal range of slopes obtained from the aforementioned formulation. A quantity (denoted as dC2/dC1) representing the derivative between the static energy densities due to temperature (C2) and water vapor (C1) for various quasi-equilibrium states can also be obtained. A dC2/dC1 value near unity obtained for the GCE-modeled tropical simulations implies that the static energy densities due to moisture and temperature only differ by a pure constant for various equilibrium states. An overall q-T relation also including extra-tropical regions is, however, found to have a curvilinear relationship. Accordingly, warm/moist regions favor change in water vapor faster than temperature, while cold/dry regions favor an increase in temperature quicker than water vapor.

Shie, C.-L.↗

How Generalizable is a Machine-Learning Approach for Modeling Hub-Height Turbulence Intensity?

Hub-height turbulence intensity is essential for a variety of wind energy applications. However, simulating it is a challenging task. Simple analytical models have been proposed in the literature, but they all come with significant limitations. Even state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, currently struggle to predict hub-height turbulence intensity. Here, we propose a machine-learning-based approach to predict hub-height turbulence intensity from other hub-height and ground-level atmospheric measurements, using observations from the Perdigao field campaign and the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. We consider a random forest regression model, which we validate first at the site used for training and then under a more robust round-robin approach, and compare its performance to a multivariate linear regression. The random forest successfully outperforms the linear regression in modeling hub-height turbulence intensity, with a normalized root-mean-square error as low as 0.014 when using 30-minute average data. In order to achieve such low root-mean-square error values, the knowledge of hub-height turbulence kinetic energy (which can instead be modeled in the Weather Research and Forecasting model) is needed. Interestingly, we find that the performance of the random forest generalizes well when considering a round-robin validation (i.e., when the algorithm is trained at one site such as Perdigao or Southern Great Plains) and then applied to model hub-height turbulence intensity at the other location.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Comfort Model Simplification for Tight Integration with Grid Service Optimizations

Localized generation, storage, and intelligent power electronics are increasingly being integrated into building. The excess storage, thermal, and generation capacity can be used to develop new markets for ancillary services such as peak reduction, voltage and frequency support, or load flattening. Widespread participation in these markets will make the power grid more resilient. However, widespread participation in these markets will require a simple and intuitive control over the excess capacity by the building occupants. Most importantly for adopting these technologies, participation in these markets should not require sacrificing occupant comfort. Many of the proposed control and optimization technologies for supplying the ancillary services do not explicitly incorporate occupant comfort into their models and when they do, generally utilize a rigid constraint on the indoor air temperature set a priori. This reduces flexibility in using excess thermal capacity. It also cannot take into account uncertainties in local factors that affect thermal comfort such as clothing insulation or relative humidity. In this paper we present and justify some assumptions that simplify the standard predictors of thermal comfort. We also develop a regression model of the thermal comfort that is linear with respect to the indoor air temperature. Next we develop the concept of thermal comfort variation that eliminates the dependence of the thermal comfort on uncertain thermal comfort factors. Then, we present a quadratic program utilizing the thermal comfort variation in both the objective function and as a constraint. Finally, we show the results of a time-of-use cost optimization that utilizes the simplified thermal comfort model.

Melin, Alexander↗

The effect of clouds on the earth's radiation budget

The radiative fluxes from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and the cloud properties from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) over Indonesia for the months of June and July of 1985 and 1986 were analyzed to determine the cloud sensitivity coefficients. The method involved a linear least squares regression between co-incident flux and cloud coverage measurements. The calculated slope is identified as the cloud sensitivity. It was found that the correlations between the total cloud fraction and radiation parameters were modest. However, correlations between cloud fraction and IR flux were improved by separating clouds by height. Likewise, correlations between the visible flux and cloud fractions were improved by distinguishing clouds based on optical depth. Calculating correlations between the net fluxes and either height or optical depth segregated cloud fractions were somewhat improved. When clouds were classified in terms of their height and optical depth, correlations among all the radiation components were improved. Mean cloud sensitivities based on the regression of radiative fluxes against height and optical depth separated cloud types are presented. Results are compared to a one-dimensional radiation model with a simple cloud parameterization scheme.

Ziskin, Daniel↗

Comparison of Likelihood Methods for Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 Data

Repeated measurement will be a feature of the survey data collected during the Quesst missionX-59 community response tests (CRT). Since each participant will report his or her categorical level of annoyance in response to multiple events, the responses from any single individual may be correlated with one another. Several models within the class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are pertinent to the analysis of correlated categorical outcomes; the random intercept logistic regression model is one example. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods for fitting these models are available, with frequentist methods relying on some form of approximation (of either an integral or the integrand) that appears in the marginal likelihood function. Given several anticipated similarities of the X-59 CRT data to data collected during a past risk reduction, Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 (QSF18), this short note is intended to create awareness. It documents an instance in which a reported population average dose-response relationship derived from QSF18 single event data was distorted by the integral approximation applied in likelihood-based methods. We review some of the available literature on the topic, compare the outputs of several different computational approaches implemented in available statistical software, and present simple corrective actions that may be useful during the Quesst mission.

dose-response model↗

Assessment of the Uniqueness of Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance Load Predictions

A new test was developed to assess the uniqueness of wind tunnel strain-gage balance load predictions that are obtained from regression models of calibration data. The test helps balance users to gain confidence in load predictions of non-traditional balance designs. It also makes it possible to better evaluate load predictions of traditional balances that are not used as originally intended. The test works for both the Iterative and Non-Iterative Methods that are used in the aerospace testing community for the prediction of balance loads. It is based on the hypothesis that the total number of independently applied balance load components must always match the total number of independently measured bridge outputs or bridge output combinations. This hypothesis is supported by a control volume analysis of the inputs and outputs of a strain-gage balance. It is concluded from the control volume analysis that the loads and bridge outputs of a balance calibration data set must separately be tested for linear independence because it cannot always be guaranteed that a linearly independent load component set will result in linearly independent bridge output measurements. Simple linear math models for the loads and bridge outputs in combination with the variance inflation factor are used to test for linear independence. A highly unique and reversible mapping between the applied load component set and the measured bridge output set is guaranteed to exist if the maximum variance inflation factor of both sets is less than the literature recommended threshold of five. Data from the calibration of a six{component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new test to real-world data.

strain-gage balance↗

Human sympathetic and vagal baroreflex responses to sequential nitroprusside and phenylephrine

We evaluated a method of baroreflex testing involving sequential intravenous bolus injections of nitroprusside followed by phenylephrine and phenylephrine followed by nitroprusside in 18 healthy men and women, and we drew inferences regarding human sympathetic and vagal baroreflex mechanisms. We recorded the electrocardiogram, photoplethysmographic finger arterial pressure, and peroneal nerve muscle sympathetic activity. We then contrasted least squares linear regression slopes derived from the depressor (nitroprusside) and pressor (phenylephrine) phases with 1) slopes derived from spontaneous fluctuations of systolic arterial pressures and R-R intervals, and 2) baroreflex gain derived from cross-spectral analyses of systolic pressures and R-R intervals. We calculated sympathetic baroreflex gain from integrated muscle sympathetic nerve activity and diastolic pressures. We found that vagal baroreflex slopes are less when arterial pressures are falling than when they are rising and that this hysteresis exists over pressure ranges both below and above baseline levels. Although pharmacological and spontaneous vagal baroreflex responses correlate closely, pharmacological baroreflex slopes tend to be lower than those derived from spontaneous fluctuations. Sympathetic baroreflex slopes are similar when arterial pressure is falling and rising; however, small pressure elevations above baseline silence sympathetic motoneurons. Vagal, but not sympathetic baroreflex gains vary inversely with subjects' ages and their baseline arterial pressures. There is no correlation between sympathetic and vagal baroreflex gains. We recommend repeated sequential nitroprusside followed by phenylephrine doses as a simple, efficientmeans to provoke and characterize human vagal and sympathetic baroreflex responses.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Adapting Secure MultiParty Computation to Support Machine Learning in Radio Frequency Sensor Networks

In this project we developed and validated algorithms for privacy-preserving linear regression using a new variant of Secure Multiparty Computation (MPC) we call "Hybrid MPC" (hMPC). Our variant is intended to support low-power, unreliable networks of sensors with low-communication, fault-tolerant algorithms. In hMPC we do not share training data, even via secret sharing. Thus, agents are responsible for protecting their own local data. Only the machine learning (ML) model is protected with information-theoretic security guarantees against honest-but-curious agents. There are three primary advantages to this approach: (1) after setup, hMPC supports a communication-efficient matrix multiplication primitive, (2) organizations prevented by policy or technology from sharing any of their data can participate as agents in hMPC, and (3) large numbers of low-power agents can participate in hMPC. We have also created an open-source software library named "Cicada" to support hMPC applications with fault-tolerance. The fault-tolerance is important in our applications because the agents are vulnerable to failure or capture. We have demonstrated this capability at Sandia's Autonomy New Mexico laboratory through a simple machine-learning exercise with Raspberry Pi devices capturing and classifying images while flying on four drones.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adaptive Activation Functions Accelerate Convergence in Deep and Physics-informed Neural Networks

We employ adaptive activation functions for regression in deep and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to approximate smooth and discontinuous functions as well as solutions of linear and nonlinear partial differential equations. In particular, we solve the nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation, which has smooth solutions, the nonlinear Burgers equation, which can admit high gradient solutions, and the Helmholtz equation. We introduce a scalable hyper-parameter in the activation function, which can be optimized to achieve best performance of the network as it changes dynamically the topology of the loss function involved in the optimization process. The adaptive activation function has better learning capabilities than the traditional one (fixed activation) as it improves greatly the convergence rate, especially at early training, as well as the solution accuracy. To better understand the learning process, we plot the neural network solution in the frequency domain to examine how the network captures successively different frequency bands present in the solution. We consider both forward problems, where the approximate solutions are obtained, as well as inverse problems, where parameters involved in the governing equation are identified. Our simulation results show that the proposed method is a very simple and effective approach to increase the efficiency, robustness and accuracy of the neural network approximation of nonlinear functions as well as solutions of partial differential equations, especially for forward problems. We theoretically prove that in the proposed method, gradient descent algorithms are not attracted to suboptimal critical points or local minima.

machine leaning, Bad minima, Inverse problems, Phy↗

Machine learning Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters to accelerate simulations of exciton dynamics

In this manuscript, we develop multiple machine learning (ML) models to accelerate a scheme for parameterizing site-based models of exciton dynamics from all-atom configurations of condensed phase sexithiophene systems. This scheme encodes the details of a system’s specific molecular morphology in the correlated distributions of model parameters through the analysis of many single-molecule excited-state electronic-structure calculations. These calculations yield excitation energies for each molecule in the system and the network of pair-wise intermolecular electronic couplings. In this work, we demonstrate that the excitation energies can be accurately predicted using a kernel ridge regression (KRR) model with Coulomb matrix featurization. We present two ML models for predicting intermolecular couplings. The first one utilizes a deep neural network and bi-molecular featurization to predict the coupling directly, which we find to perform poorly. The second one utilizes a KRR model to predict unimolecular transition densities, which can subsequently be analyzed to compute the coupling. We find that the latter approach performs excellently, indicating that an effective, generalizable strategy for predicting simple bimolecular properties is through the indirect application of ML to predict higher-order unimolecular properties. Such an approach necessitates a much smaller feature space and can incorporate the insight of well-established molecular physics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Right and left ventricular volumes in vitro by a new nongeometric method

We present an evaluation of a new nongeometric technique for calculating right and left ventricular volumes. This method calculates ventricular chamber volumes from multiple cross-sectional echocardiographic views taken from a single point as the echo beam is tilted progressively through the ventricle. Right and left ventricular volumes are calculated from both the approximate short axis and approximate apical position on 20 in vitro human hearts and compared with the actual chamber volumes. The results for both ventricles from both positions are excellent. Correlation coefficients are > 0.95 for all positions; the standard errors are in the range of 5 to 7 mL and the slopes and intercepts for the regression lines are not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (except for the left ventricular short-axis intercept). For all positions, approximately 6 to 8 views are needed for peak accuracy (7.5 degrees to 10 degrees separation). This approach offers several advantages. No geometric assumptions about ventricular shape are made. All images are acquired from a single point (or window), and the digitized points can be used to make a three-dimensional reconstruction of the ventricle. Also, during the calculations a volume distribution curve for the ventricle is produced. The shape of this curve can be characteristic for certain situations (ie, right ventricle, short axis) and can be used to make new simple equations for calculating volume. We conclude that this is an accurate nongeometric method for determining both right and left ventricular volumes in vitro.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗