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CHP Integrated with Burners for Packaged Boilers (Final Report)

The objective of this project was to engineer, design, fabricate, and field demonstrate a Boiler Burner Energy System Technology (BBEST) that integrates a low-cost, clean burning, gas-fired simple-cycle (unrecuperated) 100 kWe (net) microturbine (SCMT) with a new ultra low-NOx gas-fired burner (ULNB) into one compact Combined Heat and Power (CHP) product that can be retrofit on new and existing industrial and commercial boilers in place of conventional burners. The Scope of Work for this project was segmented into two principal phases: (Phase I) Hardware development, assembly and pre-test and (Phase II) Field installation and demonstration testing. Phase I was divided into five technical tasks (Task 2 to 6). These tasks covered the engineering, design, fabrication, testing and optimization of each key component of the CHP system principally, ULNB, SCMT, assembly BBEST CHP package, and integrated controls. Phase I work culminated with the laboratory testing of the completed BBEST assembly prior to shipment for field installation and demonstration. Phase II consisted of two remaining technical tasks (Task 7 and 8), which focused on the installation, startup, and field verification tests at a pre-selected industrial plant to document performance and attainment of all project objectives. Technical direction and administration was under the management of CMCE, Inc. Altex Technologies Corporation lead the design, assembly and testing of the system. Field demonstration was supported by Leva Energy, the commercialization firm founded by executives at CMCE and Altex. Leva Energy has applied for patent protection on the BBEST process under the trade name of Power Burner and holds the license for the burner currently used in the product. The commercial term Power Burner is used throughout this report to refer to the BBEST technology proposed for this project. The project was co-funded by the California Energy Commission and the Southern California Gas Company (SCG), a division of Sempra Energy. These match funds were provided via concurrent contracts and investments available via CMCE, Altex, and Leva Energy The project attained all its objectives and is considered a success. CMCE secured the support of GI&E from Italy to supply 100 kW Turbec T-100 microturbines for the project. One was purchased by the project’s subcontractor, Altex, and a second spare was purchased by CMCE under this project. The microturbines were then modified to convert from their original recuperated design to a simple cycle configuration. Replacement low-NOx silo combustors were designed and bench tested in order to achieve compliance with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) 2007 emission limits for NOx and CO when in CHP operation. The converted microturbine was then mated with a low NOx burner provided by Altex via an integration section that allowed flow control and heat recovery to minimize combustion blower requirements; manage burner turndown; and recover waste heat. A new fully integrated control system was designed and developed that allowed one-touch system operation in all three available modes of operation: (1) CHP with both microturbine and burner firing for boiler heat input greater than 2 MMBtu/hr; (2) burner head only (BHO) when the microturbine is under service; and (3) microturbine only when boiler heat input requirements fall below 2 MMBtu/hr. This capability resulted in a burner turndown performance of nearly 10/1, a key advantage for this technology over conventional low NOx burners. Key components were then assembled into a cabinet with additional support systems for generator cooling and fuel supply. System checkout and performance tests were performed in the laboratory. The assembled system and its support equipment were then shipped and installed at a host facility where final performance tests were conducted following efforts to secure fabrication, air, and operating permits. The installed power burner is now in commercial operation and has achieved all the performance goals.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Pebble Fuel Handling and Reactivity Control for Salt-Cooled High Temperature Reactors

This report documents the work completed on the X-PREX facility under NEUP Project 11- 3172. This project seeks to demonstrate the viability of pebble fuel handling and reactivity control for fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactors (FHRs). The research results also improve the understanding of pebble motion in helium-cooled reactors, as well as the general, fundamental understanding of low-velocity granular flows. Successful use of pebble fuels in with salt coolants would bring major benefits for high-temperature reactor technology. Pebble fuels enable on-line refueling and operation with low excess reactivity, and thus simpler reactivity control and improved fuel utilization. If fixed fuel designs are used, the power density of salt- cooled reactors is limited to 10 MW/m 3 to obtain adequate duration between refueling, but pebble fuels allow power densities in the range of 20 to 30 MW/m 3 . This can be compared to the typical modular helium reactor power density of 5 MW/m3. Pebble fuels also permit radial zoning in annular cores and use of thorium or graphite pebble blankets to reduce neutron fluences to outer radial reflectors and increase total power production. Combined with high power conversion efficiency, compact low-pressure primary and containment systems, and unique safety characteristics including very large thermal margins (>500°C) to fuel damage during transients and accidents, salt-cooled pebble fuel cores offer the potential to meet the major goals of the Advanced Reactor Concepts Development program to provide electricity at lower cost than light water reactors with improved safety and system performance.This report presents the facility description, experimental results, and supporting simulation methods of the new X-Ray Pebble Recirculation Experiment (X-PREX), which is now operational and being used to collect data on the behavior of slow dense granular flows relevant to pebble bed reactor core designs. The X-PREX facility uses novel digital x-ray tomography methods to track both the translational and rotational motion of spherical pebbles, which provides unique experimental results that can be used to validate discrete element method (DEM) simulations of pebble motion. The validation effort supported by the X-PREX facility provides a means to build confidence in analysis of pebble bed configuration and residence time distributions that impact the neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and safety analysis of pebble bed reactor cores. Experimental and DEM simulation results are reported for silo drainage, a classical problem in the granular flow literature, at several hopper angles. These studies include conventional converging and novel diverging geometries that provide additional flexibility in the design of pebble bed reactor cores. Excellent agreement is found between the X-PREX experimental and DEM simulation results. This report also includes results for additional studies relevant to the design and analysis of pebble bed reactor cores including the study of forces on shut down blades inserted directly into a packed bed and pebble flow in a cylindrical hopper that is representative of a small test reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A New Appraisal- Lessons from the History of Efforts to Value Green and High-Performance Home Attributes in the United States

Rigorous consideration of green and high-performance (“green/HP”) features is rarely included in the property valuation process._ To help illuminate why this is the case, this report takes stock of the history of efforts to improve practices, and identifies barriers that have emerged and opportunities for overcoming them. Particular emphasis is placed on what energy and environmental policymakers and other stakeholders outside the appraisal community can contribute to the broader effort to advance professional practices. The history has unfolded in parallel with turbulent periods in the housing market for which appraisers and their customers are deemed to share responsibility, followed by cycles of regulations, siloing of appraisers in the name of professional integrity, and commoditization of the valuation process itself. This pattern has important ramifications for aspirations that appraisers engage more fully in identifying and valuing the green/HP characteristics of homes. On the one hand, it is legally and ethically incumbent on appraisers to do so, yet on the other hand it is perceived as a risky avenue to follow. Risks arise where findings can be challenged as either over- or under-stating value, together with a market environment in which the complexity of their assignments increases despite downward pressure on appraiser fees. While efforts to address green/HP considerations date back to the early 1980s, the vast majority of activity has taken place within the past five years. Many players have engaged in the efforts to promote improved valuation practices. These include the Appraisal Foundation, The Appraisal Institute, Colorado Energy Office, Earth Advantage, EcoBroker, Elevate Energy, Fannie Mae, Federal Housing Administration, Home Innovation Research Labs, The Institute for Market Transformation, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of State Energy Officials, National Association of Appraisers, RESNET, USEPA, USDOE and its National Laboratories, the U.S. Green Buildings Council, and the Vermont Green Homes Alliance. Many activities have resulted, ranging from trainings, to data-gathering instruments, and the emergence of a literature attempting to statistically isolate the effects of green/HP characteristics on home values. In some cases, the results of studies have been overgeneralized and oversold, and embodied flawed methods. Although the green/HP community has encouraged appraisers to focus on exemplary buildings (e.g., LEED or ENERGY STAR Certified), any level of green or energy performance can in fact influence value, including below-average performance (a.k.a. “brown discount”), irrespective of whether or not the building has been formally rated. This overly narrow focus represents a significant missed opportunity. Other surmountable challenges include limitations to non-appraisers’ understanding of the appraisal process (and practical constraints therein). A byproduct of this can be unrealistic expectations of what appraisers can and will do in the marketplace. These challenges notwithstanding, the environment for moving forward has improved. There is better data today (a critical need); expanded efforts to disclose energy use information (characteristics, consumption, bills); improved and more pervasive building energy codes, building rating and labeling initiatives; and a host of federal, state, and local policies that have collectively brought green/HP practices much more into the mainstream. Meanwhile, a renewed focus on professional standards of care and competency for assessing green/HP homes make it increasingly important for appraisers to consider these factors in their assignments. Despite the past four decades of studies, there is little if any discernible uptake of these practices by the appraisal practice at large. It would behoove interested parties to step back and consider what new strategies might be productive. A key element of any new plan should be to reset the nature of interactions with the industry, with the goal a more collaborative, two-way discussion to help improve outsiders’ understanding of the valuation process. It is not only the appraiser that needs to be engaged and could benefit from awareness raising. Homeowners, builders, lenders, utilities, insurance companies should also provide input on how green/HP factors impact property valuations and ways to accurately reflect these considerations in appraisals and real estate transactions more broadly. Given extensive inertia within the appraisal industry and a mixed history of interactions with the non-appraisal stakeholders, it is unlikely that the status quo will achieve much unless followed with more coordinated and persistent efforts. Workshops, studies, and memoranda of understanding will not on their own have much impact, and do not address deeper structural issues. Expectations are often unrealistic and not attentive to real-world constraints faced by appraisers. The report identifies key barriers impeding more thorough consideration of green/HP factors in residential real estate appraisals, and solutions for mitigating them. Barriers • Although industry standards of practice caution against bias of any sort, a skeptical predisposition towards “green” is reinforced by information deficiencies. • Information deficiencies result from the lack or difficulty of obtaining usable data on green/HP features in subject properties as well as valid sales comparisons or cashflow analyses. • Competency deficiencies, such as lack of conversancy in relevant technical topics, leads to oversights, and disjointed treatment of relevant information. • Time/cost pressure and process commoditization (e.g., template-based approaches) result from highly constrained budgets, quick turn-around times expected of appraisers, and standardized practices that were not developed with green/HP considerations in mind. • Professional differences between appraisers and sustainability professionals include divergent objectives, the former being market observers and the latter market influencers. • Risk aversion arises from multiple concerns including veracity, accuracy, and persistence of energy data, impacts of operational choices, new sources of appraiser liability associated with green/HP assessments, industry pressures not to over-value buildings or suggestion of bias, and concern about spending non-billable time on complex assignments. • A public policy vacuum has been created by disjointed and uncoordinated efforts from public-sector stakeholders, insufficient efforts to discuss and understand the appraisal industry and process, and a perception by some valuation professionals that green/HP is oversold. Opportunities • Elevating the competency of appraisers can be achieved through a combination of improved industry standards of care and equal-access training and professional development offerings. • Development of better information resources must focus on building-level information that provides robust documentation as well as aggregate sales-comparison data and other contextual information such as local codes, typical upgrade costs, energy prices, etc. • Improved energy benchmarking and rating tools could provide appraisers with information more well-adapted to their particular needs, which differ from those of typical audiences such as energy managers. • Better characterizing and managing risk will enable appraisers to cope with uncertainties in performance information, and help identify where risks may be introduced or mitigated by green/HP features, including higher costs or obsolescence of poorly-performing buildings. • Integrating disaster resilience and sustainability in appraisals would recognize important synergisms among these features, including durability and ability of green/HP buildings to better withstand external hazards. • Mitigating the problem of additional time/cost for performing assignments is an essential need that can be addressed by providing easier access to information and analytic procedures, perhaps coupled with new resources to defray the associated costs. • Enhancing demand for improved appraisals is a fundamental need, and depends on owners, developers, lenders, and others soliciting competent appraisers to perform scopes that expressly call out green/HP considerations, and to critically review the work product for compliance before acceptance. • Engaging new market participants, such as energy utilities and insurance companies can ensure fuller representation and participation of market stakeholders already engaged in green/HP activities and capable of furnishing valuable data and managing associated risks. Cutting across these individual activities, there is a need for outside stakeholders to formulate and follow a roadmap instead of piecemeal initiatives, bridging the professional/cultural divide between appraisers and green/HP communities, and tracking progress in order to know what is working. A more coherent communication and training strategy is needed, as the appraisal industry is highly fragmented, with two-thirds of appraisers opting out of membership in trade associations. In sum, while there is no silver bullet for advancing the practice of valuing green/HP features, there are concrete opportunities. Parties seeking solutions must identify barriers they wish to address and select from among potential initiatives that map to those barriers. Close collaboration with the appraisal community is critical, as non-appraisers have historically obtained limited traction with this industry due to lack of understanding of the nuances involved in the valuation profession. Large organizations and agencies should have a united approach; the perception or reality of a fragmented and uncoordinated strategy is unsettling for prospective partners in the appraisal industry. This requires improved communication and education within and among these communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Seamless Digital Environment – Plan for Data Analytics Use Case Study

The U.S Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program initiated research in to what is needed in order to provide a roadmap or model for Nuclear Power Plants to reference when building an architecture that can support the growing data supply and demand flowing through their networks. The Digital Architecture project published report Digital Architecture Planning Model (Oxstrand et. al, 2016) discusses things to consider when building an architecture to support the increasing needs and demands of data throughout the plant. Once the plant is able to support the data demands it still needs to be able to provide the data in an easy, quick and reliable method. A common method is to create a “one stop shop” application that a user can go to get all the data they need. The creation of this leads to the need of creating a Seamless Digital Environment (SDE) to integrate all the “siloed” data. An SDE is the desired perception that should be presented to users by gathering the data from any data source (e.g., legacy applications and work management systems) without effort by the user. The goal for FY16 was to complete a feasibility study for data mining and analytics for employing information from computer-based procedures enabled technologies for use in developing improved business analytics. The research team collaborated with multiple organizations to identify use cases or scenarios, which could be beneficial to investigate in a feasibility study. Many interesting potential use cases were identified throughout the FY16 activity. Unfortunately, due to factors out of the research team’s control, none of the studies were initiated this year. However, the insights gained and the relationships built with both PVNGS and NextAxiom will be valuable when moving forward with future research. During the 2016 annual Nuclear Information Technology Strategic Leadership (NITSL) group meeting it was identified would be very beneficial to the industry to support a research effort focused on data analytics. It was suggested that the effort would develop and evaluate use cases for data mining and analytics for employing information from plant sensors and database for use in developing improved business analytics.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Method and application of data integration at a nuclear power plant. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program report

The data of a nuclear power plant (NPP) is stored in silos for the various plant tools. A previous study conducted by the LWRS program identified the different data sources that can benefit online monitoring in an NPP. These data have different structures and tools and are therefore used independently. Integrating data from various sources can result in multiple benefits to online monitoring by enhancing the ability to compare data, reduce statistical uncertainty due to a larger data set, increase data heterogeneity in space and time to reveal confounded information, develop intelligent methods, and share data. Data integration can result in direct cost saving by reducing the amount of effort needed to find needed information. It can also enable establishing a data warehouse, the backbone repository of data for an NPP, and is necessary to evolve NPPs to a holistic online monitoring approach and automate labor-intensive activities. Whether within an NPP or for a fleet of NPPs, deploying a data warehouse in a plant or data broker for a fleet of plants requires overcoming multiple challenges, including the lack of a standard form of storing and using data and the lack of integration methods to compare and map the different data sources. This effort demonstrates two methods and applications for data integration through an application integration pilot and a data fusion pilot. The application integration is targeted towards the software interfacing of data and data management. This approach is commonly used by data integrators. The data fusion pilot is targeted towards intelligently mapping or coupling data for optimized data use. The pilots were performed in collaboration with two NPPs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Enabling coordinated, distributed development of scientific software: A research agenda for adapting a team of teams approach

The “team of teams” concept is a strategy for coordinating activities within and across organizations, developed by General Stanley McChrystal and his colleagues based on their experiences leading the Joint Special Operations Task Force in Iraq from 2003-2008. These experiences, and the lessons learned from them, are recounted in the books Team of Teams (McChrystal 2015) and One Mission (Fussell 2017) (the authors and contributors to these books will hereafter be jointly referred to as McChrystal et al.). Essentially, their story is one of rapidly adapting a rigid, siloed organization to defeat the flexible, resilient, and fast-moving network of Al Qaeda in Iraq. As described in the books, when McChrystal took over the Task Force, he found a collection of highly competent, efficient teams of analysts and warfighters which nonetheless had difficulty operating in a unified manner due to close internal ties, distrust of outsiders, bureaucratic stove pipes, and cultural differences stemming from the diverse organizations Task Force teams were affiliated with, including Army Special Forces, CIA, and NSA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Building Blocks of Electric Vehicle Deployment: A Guide for Developing Countries

Countries can use electric transportation to help fulfill numerous goals, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets, local air quality goals, mobility objectives, energy security, and transportation resiliency. Vehicle electrification is a promising pathway to achieving clean energy transitions in the transport sector at scale. As vehicles electrify, the traditionally siloed electricity and transport sectors increasingly converge to create technical, institutional, and economic opportunities and challenges. To navigate this transition effectively, we propose the following foundational pillars or “building blocks” that undergird effective electric vehicle (EV) deployment. Jurisdictions with experience and mature EV markets offer useful lessons learned that may enable developing countries to leapfrog over common roadblocks. Nonetheless, developing countries face distinct challenges collectively, and individually, from developed countries that require careful consideration. From our work around the world, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have witnessed interest growing in EVs for a variety of reasons. Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), for example, looks toward EVs as a way to use their surplus of hydropower to displace expensive oil. Thailand and Pakistan seek economic development opportunities in EV manufacturing. Cities including Mexico City, Surat, India, and Kingston, Jamaica see the potential of bus electrification to improve local air quality and reduce traffic congestion. Many USAID partner countries in Southeast Asia are trying to understand how to reach ambitious EV deployment targets and implement EV and transportation plans. This pursuit is prompting questions about EV supply equipment (EVSE) standards, tariff design, and business models that affirm the importance of the building blocks outlined in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Summary Report of the Reactive CO 2 Capture: Process Integration for the New Carbon Economy Workshop

Decarbonization of our global economy is required to limit planetary warming to +1.5⁰C above pre-industrial levels, an ambitious goal set into motion by the Paris agreement. Given the scale and urgency, the solution demands international, cross-sector advancements spanning policy, social responsibility, and technology, with emphasis on step changes over incremental changes. To that end, technological revolutions that disrupt the status quo need to be envisioned and enacted. One potential technological revolution is the production of fuels, chemicals, and materials from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as the starting feedstock, leveraging renewable energy as the driving force. Over the past decades, significant research, development, and deployment has occurred on technologies for capturing CO 2 from point sources or the air and utilizing this CO 2 as a working fluid or as a chemical reactant; however, most of this work has been siloed in these two categories. Recently, an emerging field has started to explore the direct integration of CO 2 capture and conversion technologies as a means to reduce overall energy demand (i.e., avoid energy penalty of CO 2 desorption/regeneration of capture media) and capital expense through process intensification. This strategy represents an opportunity to leapfrog forward this technological revolution. However, the field is in its infancy and the technologies are at an early stage of development, thus it is critically important to define and assess the value proposition of this strategy relative to alternatives (e.g., separated capture and conversion technologies, fuels and chemicals derived from renewable feedstocks like biomass, and industrial electrification) to chart a path forward. To identify next steps, we organized a workshop titled “Reactive CO 2 Capture: Process Integration for the New Carbon Economy” which was held in Golden, Colorado, February 18–19, 2020. The focus of this workshop was to discuss approaches for merging CO 2 capture and CO 2 conversion/utilization systems into what we denoted as an integrated "reactive capture" strategy. By our definition, reactive capture of CO 2 is the coupled process of capturing CO 2 from a mixed gas stream and converting it into a valuable product without going through a purified CO 2 intermediate (see full definition in the Introduction section). This report seeks to summarize feedback from the approximately 125 participants and subject matter experts in attendance from academia, industry, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and DOE national laboratories. The workshop agenda is included in Appendix A and the full list of attendees can be found in Appendix B. To elucidate a path forward, we first asked the attendees to define what success would look like for reactive capture in the short term (0–5 years), midterm (5–10 years), and long term (10+ years) and then asked them to answer four questions related to how we could achieve that success: (1) What are the key barriers and challenges to success? (2) What are needed activities to overcome barriers and challenges? (3) What opportunities will arise from these activities? (4) What is a target outcome and what metrics need to be met?

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

GT Flex: A Coordinated Multi-Building Pilot Study

Buildings are a significant and untapped resource for providing utility electric grid services. Recent studies have estimated that buildings could reduce the peak demand on the electric grid in the U.S. by almost 25% through effective combinations of energy efficiency (EE) measures and load flexibility strategies (Langevin et al. 2021). The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has established a goal to triple energy efficiency and demand flexibility in both residential and commercial sections by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (Satchwell et al. 2021). Such findings place buildings alongside electric vehicles, photovoltaics, electric batteries, and other distributed energy resources (DERs) as primary technologies needed for supporting high renewable energy generation grids. Coordinating and optimizing multiple buildings and other DERs is more beneficial and valuable when compared with individual buildings and DERs operating as siloed resources, uncoordinated with others (Olgyay et al. 2020). A pilot study at the Georgia Institute of Technology (GIT) was conducted to evaluate value propositions of a multi-building scale project seeking carbon reduction, energy efficiency and grid-interactive capabilities, by demonstrating the means by which stakeholders can determine the technical and financial merits of grid-interactivity and energy efficiency technologies coordinated across multiple assets. The study focused on analyzing technical feasibility of deploying thermal load flexibility strategies at the multi-building scale, coordinated to not exceed existing infrastructure constraints at the pilot site. Results show that campus can provide 3-3.5 MW of potential load shed over a 4-hour event window through coordinated dispatch of thermal cooling load flexibility without exceeding existing infrastructure capacities. Under future high renewable scenarios, this thermal flexibility resource is also valuable when coordinated to reduce curtailment of intermittent renewables. Economic analyses were performed to effectively communicate various value propositions of grid-interactive and efficient building (GEB) thermal flexibility strategies. Load flexibility presents a financial value proposition to the campus today. By conducting rationalized, coordinated dispatch in response to real time price (RTP) fluctuations, the campus can benefit materially from daily price arbitrage. The RTP signal acts as an aggregating mechanism between the utility and customer to call on demand flexibility resources, with a large portion of the benefit deriving from a relatively small number of days. Realizing and maximizing this benefit with thermal load flexibility requires careful attention to the timing of pricing signals and parameterization of dispatch to overcome efficiency penalties. Grid value and signals are expected to evolve over time, and thermal load flexibility shows potential to adapt dispatch logic to support intermittent renewable generation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The False Dilemma: Rethinking AF Science and Technology Officer Talent Management

In 2019, Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Heather Wilson launched the 2030 Science and Technology (S&T) Strategy by stating, “The advantage will go to those who create the best technologies and who integrate and field them in creative operational ways that provide military advantages.” In 2021, 15% of Air Force general officers responsible for creating and integrating this technological edge had a science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) graduate degree, and less than 1% of generals had a STEM doctorate. As one point of comparison, at least 32% and 13% of founding CEOs of Fortune 500 technology companies had a master’s and doctoral STEM degree, respectively. The gulf is larger when you consider that these CEOs used their technical degrees throughout their careers whereas most general officers do not. In large organizations, if the leader does not possess technical knowledge, it is difficult to drive innovation systems and connect ideas to reality. The evidence for this disconnect is abundant in acquisition challenges for high-tech systems, significant pushback to the “revolution in military affairs”, and failure of the “Third Offset” to take hold and deliver capabilities to offset Chinese and Russian capabilities. Indeed, when the former Air Force and Space Force Chief Software Officer, Nicolas M. Chaillan, offered his resignation, one of the main reasons for leaving was “the failure of OSD and the Joint Staff to deliver on their own alleged top ‘priority’, JADC2 – they couldn’t ‘walk the walk.’” Senior leaders have recognized this disconnect, and several inquiries and studies regarding STEM competency have been conducted. Many have posed a false dilemma: a large, STEM-cognizant or small, STEM-expert force. However, current and future STEM human capital needs are managed at the unit and functional area level. This leads to “silos” and the tactical “needs of the present” dominating the strategic “needs of the future”, highlighted by only two functional areas systematically tracking future STEM needs. Therefore, the decision on force structure appears to have been historically made by default through these and other perceived structural realities, and a vast majority of recommendations have focused on the small STEM community – an exercise in diminishing returns. In essence, the solution often boils down to finding unicorns – officers that have chartered the unforgiving pathway through the traditional “gates” to general officer while obtaining sufficient STEM proficiency along the way. Fortunately for the Air Force, these officers exist, albeit at a rate below what the evidence would suggest is necessary. However, this approach fundamentally limits the ability to develop a deep pool of officers with the ability to create and integrate technologies and ensures the Dunning-Kruger effect is prevalent. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where those with limited knowledge in an area lack the expertise necessary to recognize their lack of expertise and consequently are prone to overestimate their knowledge and performance. In short, we need less leaders overestimating their STEM knowledge and more with hard-earned STEM competency required to “walk the walk” to create and integrate technologies for military advantage. This will not be accomplished by restricting the emphasis to the traditional scientists and engineering (S&E) career fields – the pool, only 10% of line officers, and general officer progression is just too small. Fortunately, the recent SECAF’s Management Initiatives and Chief of Staff’s (CSAF) Action Orders, both containing emphasis on organic expertise to “accrue advantage in military-technological competition,” present an opportunity to truly develop a framework for the force of the future.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Enhancing Knowledge Capture and Management within a Knowledge-Driven Workforce [Capstone Project]

This project aimed to understand how the collective knowledge of a group of engineers or ‘knowledge-based workers’ can be baselined through use of qualitative questionnaires based on input from subject matter experts. The results of the questionnaires were then used to inform management and the group where to focus efforts on terms of training and mentoring. With use of re-administering the qualitative questionnaire to gauge progress over time. Additionally, the development a knowledge-based wiki was explored to help shape group culture from one where ideas and knowledge tend to be siloed, into one where information is traded freely across the group and with external customers and collaborators.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid (NI4AI) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Electric utilities have traditionally taken a very pragmatic yet myopic approach with grid sensors and the resulting collected data. Sensors are purchased and deployed to solve a specific, known problem that has risen to sufficient awareness as to justify the effort of deploying sensors and the needed capital investment. This sensor data flows into proprietary software packages with limited functionality intended only to address the initial problem. This approach aligns with the financial incentives of the utility to deploy capital into fixed hardware assets for which the corporations earn a rate of return. This mentality stands in stark contrast to the big data revolution that started nearly 25 years ago with the rise of Google. In this worldview, data is a fundamental business asset; successful organizations collect, store, explore, merge, and exploit as much data as possible to not only solve problems well understood today but also to tackle new problems that will inevitably rise tomorrow. The ARPA-E Open Innovation 2018 project entitled A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid or NI4AI for short was designed to demonstrate this alternative paradigm for using data. To do this, the project was composed of three key thrust areas. The first major component deployed a variety of high-frequency grid sensors and captured terabytes of both wide-scale and localized grid measurements, generating high-value datasets for grid research and algorithm development. The second aspect made available PingThings’ PredictiveGridTM, a horizontally scalable, cloud-based data management and AI platform built for time series data to explore and exploit the collected data. Finally, the project fostered a diverse and open research community composed of experts from numerous fields through focused educational content, code sharing, and data science competitions. Shifting away from “single use” sensors and closed data silos within electric utilities is a major benefit to the public at large. This legacy approach to data is incredibly (1) capital intensive (new sensors must be deployed for each new problem and problems tend to arise continuously) and (2) painfully slow (new problems must be identified first and then new sensors must be deployed to collect data to begin to address the issue). The transition to a carbon neutral grid requires a massive transformation of the existing grid infrastructure and will continue to challenge the legacy grid in unforeseen ways. The only way to make the energy transition cost effective is for utilities to abandon this dated data paradigm and adopt more contemporary approaches. NI4AI has shown that it is technically possible and economically feasible to ingest, explore, and exploit grid data collected from even very high frequency sensing, such as continuous point on wave sensors collecting measurements 10,000 times a second. In fact, the PredictiveGrid platform used is commercially available and deployed at several utilities in the United States. Project accomplishments were numerous and included (1) making available a state of the art time series platform to the community, (2) collecting over 520 streams of time series data from grid sensors totaling over 1 trillion grid measurements, and (3) developing and nurturing a community within the industry focused on the use of data to create value for utilities and, ultimately, end consumers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deploying a Publicly Available and Living National Oil and Gas Well Geodatabase: CO2-Locate: A Dynamic Database & Tool

Emission mitigation and safe geologic carbon storage require an understanding of local wellbore infrastructure, yet well data are siloed across many entities. Addressing this challenge, the National Energy Technology Laboratory published CO2-Locate, an integrated and dynamic national wellbore geodatabase. CO2-Locate offers up to date well data spanning more than 40 federal, state, and tribal entities, as well as spatially summarized insights designed to support commercial, regulatory, and research communities as they strive to curb climate change through a national energy transition.

Pfander, Isabelle↗

ICBM Transition Tool

The ICBM Transition Tool is an interactive, spreadsheet-based tool for exploring scenarios involving the planned transition of the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) force from the Minute Man III (MMIII) to the Sentinel missile, including the refurbishment of missile silos. The transition includes the fielding of the W87-1 warhead, retirement of the W78 warhead, and impacts to the availability of components for reuse.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Opportunities for Integrating Electric and Gas Planning

Growing demand for electricity in buildings is creating new opportunities and challenges for electric and natural gas planning. To date, electric and gas planning processes have largely been siloed, and only a few jurisdictions have started to examine how these two processes could be linked together. The report explores the current state of electric and gas system planning, and the benefits and challenges of integrating these planning processes. We frame the characteristics of an integrated electric and gas distribution planning process and identify indicators of progress toward the characteristics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗