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At least 109 records · Page 6

First-principles predictions of temperature-dependent infrared dielectric function of polar materials by including four-phonon scattering and phonon frequency shift

Recently, first-principles calculations based on density functional theory have been widely used to predict the temperature-dependent infrared spectrum of polar materials, but the calculations are usually limited to the harmonic frequency (0 K) and three-phonon scattering damping for the zone-center infrared-active optical phonon modes, and fail to predict the high-temperature infrared optical properties of materials such as sapphire (α–Al 2 O 3 ), GaAs, TiO 2 , etc., due to the neglect of high-order phonon scattering damping and phonon frequency shift. In this work, we implemented first-principles calculations to predict the temperature-dependent infrared dielectric function of polar materials by including four-phonon scattering and phonon frequency shift. The temperature-dependent phonon damping by including three- and four-phonon scattering as well as the phonon frequency shift by including cubic and quartic anharmonicity and the thermal expansion effect are calculated based on anharmonic lattice dynamics method. The infrared dielectric function of α–Al 2 O 3 is parameterized, and then the temperature-dependent infrared optical reflectance is determined. We find that our predictions agree better with the experimental data than the previous density functional theory-based methods. Lastly, this work will help to effectively predict the thermal radiative properties of polar materials at elevated temperature, which is generally difficult to measure, and will enable predictive design of new materials for radiative applications.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Advanced Health Information Technology Analytic Framework and Application to Hazard Detection

Health Information Technology (HIT) aims to improve healthcare outcomes by organizing and analyzing various health-related data. With data accumulating at a staggering rate, the importance of real-time analytics has been increasing dramatically, shifting the focus of informatics from batch processing to streaming analytics. HIT is also facing unprecedented challenges in adapting to this new requirement and leveraging advanced IT technologies. This paper introduces a HIT data and compute platform that supports multi-granularity real-time analytics from heterogeneous data sources. The paper first identifies functional requirements and proposes a framework that satisfies the requirements using state-of-the-art big data technologies including Apache Kafka, Spark Structured Streaming Engine, and Delta Lake. To demonstrate its capability to support data analytics in multiple time granularities analytics, a statistical process control-based hazard detection algorithm has been implemented on top of the framework to detect unexpected hazards from order cancellation data of the Department of US Veterans Affairs (VA) in near real-time.

Kumar, Mohit↗

Unraveling the intrinsic atomic physics behind x-ray absorption line shifts in warm dense silicon plasmas

Here, we present a novel free-energy density functional theory (DFT)-based methodology for optical property calculations of warm dense matter to cover a wide range of thermodynamic conditions and photon energies including the entire x-ray range. It uses Mermin–Kohn–Sham density functional theory with exchange-correlation (XC) thermal effects taken into account via a fully temperature dependent generalized gradient approximation XC functional. The methodology incorporates a combination of the ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) snapshotted Kubo–Greenwood optic data with a single-atom in simulation cell calculations to close the photon energy gap between the L and K edges and extend the K-edge tail toward many-keV photon energies. This gap arises in the standard scheme due to a prohibitively large number of bands required for the Kubo–Greenwood calculations with AIMD snapshots. Kubo–Greenwood data on snapshots provide an accurate description of optic properties at low photon frequencies slightly beyond the L-edge and x-ray absorption near edges structure (XANES) spectra, while data from periodic calculations with single atoms cover the tail regions beyond the edges. To demonstrate its applicability to mid-Z materials where the standard DFT-based approach is not computationally feasible, we have applied it to opacity calculations of warm dense silicon plasmas. These first-principles calculations revealed a very interesting phenomon of red-to-blue shift in K–L (1s → 2p) and K-edge absorptions along both isotherm and isochore, which are absent in most continuum-lowering models of traditional plasma physics. This new physics phenomenon can be attributed to the underlying competition between the screening of deeply bound core electrons and the screening of outer-shell electrons caused by warm-dense-plasma conditions. We further demonstrate that the ratio of 1s → 2p to the K-edge x-ray absorptions can be used to characterize warm-dense-plasma conditions. Eventually, based on our absorption calculations, we have established a first-principles opacity table (FPOT) for silicon in a wide range of material densities and temperatures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Origins of Blast-Loaded Vessels

As the Manhattan Project shifted to the theory of implosion assembly in 1944, plutonium was extremely rare and large uncertainties surrounded the function of the Gadget. For these reasons, a team within the Manhattan Project began another ambitious experiment: to confine the effects of detonating two tons of high explosives and enable the recovery of precious plutonium! No data existed on the subject, and the team faced numerous challenges as they engineered what is believed to be the world’s first blast-loaded confinement vessel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Specificity in plant-mycorrhizal fungal relationships: prevalence, parameterization, and prospects

Species interactions exhibit varying degrees of specialization, ranging from generalist to specialist interactions. For many interactions (e.g., plant-microbiome) we lack standardized metrics of specialization, hindering our ability to apply comparative frameworks of specificity across niche axes and organismal groups. Here, we discuss the concept of plant host specificity of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi, including the predominant theories for their interactions: Passenger, Driver, and Habitat Hypotheses. We focus on five major areas of interest in advancing the field of plant-mycorrhizal fungal host specificity: phylogenetic specificity, host physiology specificity, functional specificity, habitat specificity, and mycorrhizal fungal-mediated plant rarity. Considering the need to elucidate foundational concepts of specificity in this globally important symbiosis, we propose standardized metrics and comparative studies to enhance our understanding. We also emphasize the importance of analyzing global mycorrhizal data holistically to draw meaningful conclusions and suggest a shift toward single-species analyses to unravel the complexities underlying these associations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of light collection from highly scattering media using wavelength-shifting fibers

Opaque scintillators are designed to have a short scattering length such that scintillation photons are probabilistically confined to a small region of space about their origin. The benefit of this feature is that information on the interaction event topology can be recorded with greater fidelity than in traditional highly transparent media with sensors at large distances from the light production region. Opaque scintillator detectors rely on wavelength-shifting fibers to extract the scintillation light; however, the efficiency of light collection has not yet been directly measured in experiment. We measured the efficiency of light collection as a function of the optical parameters of an opaque liquid and the distance from the origin of the light to the fiber. We use the experimental data to validate a Monte Carlo model of light transport and collection and discuss a simple diffusion model that reproduces the results of Monte Carlo simulation with high fidelity. Furthermore, this combination of validated models has the potential for use in predictions of performance in various designs of future opaque scintillator detectors such as LiquidO.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Comparison of Americium(III) and Neodymium(III) Monothiophosphate Complexes

Mixed-donor ligands, such as those containing a combination of O/N or O/S, have been studied extensively for the selective extraction of trivalent actinides, especially Am 3+ and Cm3+, from lanthanides during the recycling of used nuclear fuel. Oxygen/sulfur donor ligand combinations also result from the hydrolytic and/or radiolytic degradation of dithiophosphates, such as the Cyanex® class of extractants, that are initially converted to monothiophosphates. To understand potential differences between the binding of such degraded ligands to Nd 3+ and Am 3+ , the monothiophosphate complexes [M(OPS(OEt) 2 ) 5 (H 2 O) 2 ] 2- (M 3+ = Nd 3+ , Am 3+ ) were prepared and characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction and optical spectroscopy and studied as a function of pressure up ca. 14 GPa using diamond-anvil techniques. Although Nd 3+ and Am 3+ have nearly identical eight-coordinated ionic radii, these structures reveal that while the M-O bond distances in these complexes are nearly equal that the M-S distances are statistically different. Moreover, for [Nd(OPS(OEt) 2 ) 5 (H 2 O) 2 ] 2- , the hypersensitive 4 I 9/2 → 4 G 5 / 2 transition shifts as a function of pressure by -11 cm -1 /GPa. Whereas for [Am(OPS(OEt) 2 ) 5 (H 2 O) 2 ] 2- , the 7 F 0 → 7 F 6 transition shows a slightly stronger pressure dependence with a shift of -13 cm -1 /GPa and also exhibits broadening of the 5f →5f transitions at high pressures. This data likely indicates an increased involvement of the 5f orbitals in bonding to Am 3+ relative to that of Nd 3+ in these complexes.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Employing Technology to Enable Remote Research Charrettes as a Method for Engaging Industry and Uncovering Best Practices: A Novel Approach for a Post-COVID-19 World

Methods to collect data in construction engineering and management (CEM) research are evolving, informed by recent technological advancements. One such method is research charrettes that allow effective interactions and knowledge sharing between expert industry practitioners and academic researchers, all colocated in a single venue, enabling rich data collection and live communication. A pivot point in technological evolution occurred with the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing a global shift to remote work. Hence, planned in-person research charrettes had to shift to remote sessions, relying on virtual conferencing platforms and online data collection mechanisms. Technology-enabled charrettes have allowed the authors to collect significantly richer data sets and ensure a more diverse representation of participants, while saving tremendous amounts of time. With the continuing emergence of technological applications, the world might not go back to functioning fully in person. The authors believe remote research charrettes (RRCs) will still be used in a post-COVID-19 world because of their superior performance. This paper builds on a previous publication that described traditional research charrettes as a method to enhance CEM research a decade ago; it offers a significantly updated and improved RRC method based on the knowledge gained from transitioning a dozen in-person charrettes into RRCs. It also presents performance comparisons between RRCs and traditional charrettes by quantifying metrics indicating how RRCs are more time-efficient and cost-saving, harness more participants from more diverse locations, and enable the collection of richer data sets and four times more industry comments and expert feedback. This paper also provides guidance on the integration of technology with traditional research charrettes, hence contributing to the CEM body of knowledge.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic resource allocation drives growth under nitrogen starvation in eukaryotes

Cells can sense changes in their extracellular environment and subsequently adapt their biomass composition. Nutrient abundance defines the capability of the cell to produce biomass components. Under nutrient-limited conditions, resource allocation dramatically shifts to carbon-rich molecules. Here, we used dynamic biomass composition data to predict changes in growth and reaction flux distributions using the available genome-scale metabolic models of five eukaryotic organisms (three heterotrophs and two phototrophs). We identified temporal profiles of metabolic fluxes that indicate long-term trends in pathway and organelle function in response to nitrogen depletion. Surprisingly, our calculations of model sensitivity and biosynthetic cost showed that free energy of biomass metabolites is the main driver of biosynthetic cost and not molecular weight, thus explaining the high costs of arginine and histidine. We demonstrated how metabolic models can accurately predict the complexity of interwoven mechanisms in response to stress over the course of growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Distributed Fiber Sensors With High Spatial Resolution in Extreme Radiation Environments in Nuclear Reactor Cores

This paper is a comprehensive experimental report on the neutron radiation effects of distributed optical fiber sensors with enhanced Rayleigh scattering profiles in an in-pile environment. Femtosecond laser direct writing was used to inscribe Type-II modifications in standard telecom fibers and radiation-hardened fibers with fluorine-doped cores. Rayleigh backscattering signals were enhanced for continuous 1.5 m. In-pile lead-out sensors tests were carried out at the MIT Research Reactor for two months, which was operated at a nominal power of 5.7 MW with fast neutron (>0.1 MeV) flux of 1.29 × 1014 n/cm2/s and an in-core temperature of up to 560°C. Using the Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry technique, the backscattering profiles of fiber sensors were interrogated with a 3-cm spatial resolution to monitor the temperature profile of the reactor. Results show that laser inscribed Type-II modifications in the form of nanogratings are highly stable against extreme temperature and ionizing radiation. Both standard telecom fibers and radiation-hardened fibers with laser-enhanced Rayleigh profiles can continuously perform distributed temperature measurements over the entire duration of the in-pile testing. Temperature coefficients of sensors and spectral shift quality were studied as functions of total radiation fluence. To the best of our knowledge, we present for the first time, the temperature profile of an operating nuclear reactor core with 3-cm spatial resolution, enabled by distributed fiber sensors with laser-enhanced Rayleigh scattering profiles. The high spatial resolution measurements can provide valuable data for the design and validation of digital twin and virtual reality of nuclear energy systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Understanding the Inner-Workings of Language Models Through Representation Dissimilarity

We use model stitching to understand the internal representations of language models. Similar to vision models, we find that "more is better," and representations learned with more data and larger width can improve the performance of weaker models via stitching. We likewise find that certain architecture choices, using GeLU vs SoLU activation functions, influence the quality of learned representations. Finally, model stitching (as opposed to other model diagnostic methods, like mode connectivity) can localize the different generalization strategies of text classifiers under domain shift to certain hidden layers.

Brown, Davis R.↗

A Lagrangian perturbation theory in the presence of massive neutrinos

We develop a Lagrangian Perturbation Theory (LPT) framework to study the clustering of cold dark matter (CDM) in cosmologies with massive neutrinos. We follow the trajectories of CDM particles with Lagrangian displacements fields up to third order in perturbation theory. Once the neutrinos become non-relativistic, their density fluctuations are modeled as being proportional to the CDM density fluctuations, with a scale-dependent proportionality factor. This yields a gravitational back-reaction that introduces additional scales to the linear growth function, which is accounted for in the higher order LPT kernels. Through non-linear mappings from Eulerian to Lagrangian frames, we ensure that our theory has a well behaved large scale behavior free of unwanted UV divergences, which are common when neutrino and CDM densities are not treated on an equal footing, and in resummation schemes that manifestly break Galilean invariance. We use our theory to construct correlation functions for both the underlying matter field, as well as for biased tracers using ConvolutionLPT. Redshift-space distortions effects are modeled using the Gaussian Streaming Model. When comparing our analytical results to simulated data from the Quijote 1 simulation suite, we find good accuracy down to r = 20 Mpc h -1 at redshift z = 0.5, for the real space and redshift space monopole particle correlation functions with no free parameters. The same accuracy is reached for the redshift space quadrupole if we additionally consider an effective field theory parameter that shifts the pairwise velocity dispersion. For modeling the correlation functions of tracers we adopt a simple Lagrangian biasing scheme with only density and curvature operators, which we find sufficient to reach down to r = 20 Mpc h -1 when comparing to simulated halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evidence of Two-Source King Plot Nonlinearity in Spectroscopic Search for New Boson

Optical precision spectroscopy of isotope shifts can be used to test for new forces beyond the standard model, and to determine basic properties of atomic nuclei. We measure isotope shifts on the highly forbidden 2 S 1/2 → 2 F 7/2 octupole transition of trapped 168,170, 172, 174, 176 Yb ions. When combined with previous measurements in Yb + and very recent measurements in Yb, the data reveal a King plot nonlinearity of up to 240σ. Furthermore, the trends exhibited by experimental data are explained by nuclear density functional theory calculations with the Fayans functional. We also find, with 4.3σ confidence, that there is a second distinct source of nonlinearity, and discuss its possible origin.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bench-Scale Testing of a High Efficiency, Ultra-Compact Process for Pre-Combustion CO 2 Capture (Final Report)

The overarching objective of this bench-scale study is to field-validate the technical feasibility of a membrane- and adsorption-enhanced water gas shift (WGS) reaction process that employs a carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membrane reactor (MR) followed by an adsorption reactor (AR) for pre-combustion CO 2 capture while demonstrating progress towards achievement of the overall performance goals of CO 2 capture with 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity (COE) of 30% less than the baseline capture approaches. The main goal of this bench-scale project is to advance the proposed MR-AR transformative CO 2 capture technology to a sufficient maturity level so that our present industrial partners (M&PT and Worley) can potentially adapt the technology for further small pilot-scale testing. The project began at TRL 4, as the system prototype had already been validated in the laboratory on simulated syngas (as part of project DE-FE0026423). The project ended at TRL 5, via scaling-up of the prototype system and testing it on actual syngas at a host site (CAER at the University of Kentucky (UKy)). The project was carried-out in two different phases: In Phase I (during BP1 of the project), the team designed, constructed, and assembled the bench-scale experimental MR-AR system, prepared the membranes, adsorbents, and catalysts, tested the bench-scale unit with simulated syngas to validate functionality, and prepared a preliminary TEA of the technology. In Phase II (during BP2 of the project), the team installed the unit at the test site at the UKy site and completed all utility connections and hookups, field-tested the novel MR-AR process in the bench-scale system using real syngas, collected and analyzed experimental data, and completed a detailed TEA of the technology. A key aim of the project was to identify and address the technical and process risks and to generate information to advance the technology to the next stage of development. All project milestones and success criteria were met. Specifically, the team: (i) designed, constructed and assembled a bench scale system that handled 1 – 5 scfm syngas and tested its functionality with simulated syngas; (ii) prepared high performance CMS membrane tubes (ID: 3.5 mm, OD: 5.7 mm, 30” long) that meet the target H 2 permeance ( > 1 m 3 /(m 2 .hr.bar) or (> 370.3 GPU)) and a target H 2 /CO selectivity >80 at the relevant temperature (up to 300oC) and pressure conditions (up to 25 bar) with a <10% decline in performance over each 250 hr. testing period (iii) procured commercial sour-shift catalyst in sufficient quantity and prepared up to 10 kg of pelletized adsorbent for use at relevant conditions (250oC 2.5wt.% and target sorbent attrition rate < 0.2; (iv) installed the bench-scale unit at the test site (UKy) and tested the MR-AR technology using real syngas for over 250 hr. for both static and flow experiments; (v) updated the TEA analysis based on bench-scale data and met CO 2 capture goals of 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity 30% less than baseline capture approaches. The CMS membranes, HTC adsorbents and catalysts employed all exhibited very robust and stable performance during the long-term run (over a >250 hr live syngas run). Furthermore, the proposed MR-AR IGCC system achieved a LCOE with a N 2 sale price of $\$$ 30/ton, with N 2 compression (no N 2 compression) of 101.2 $\$$/MWh (95.3 $\$$/MWh), which represents a 29.8% (33.9%) LCOE reduction in the baseline IGCC with carbon capture of 144.2 $\$$/MWh. The proposed MR-AR IGCC delivers a CO 2 capture cost of 44.8 $\$$/tonne (39.9 $\$$/tonne) vs 98.1 $\$$/tonne of the baseline capture case and a net power production of 586 MWe (623 MWe) vs 556 MWe of the baseline capture case.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Learning genetic perturbation effects with variational causal inference

Advances in sequencing technologies have enhanced the understanding of gene regulation in cells. In particular, Perturb-seq has enabled high-resolution profiling of the transcriptomic response to genetic perturbations at the single-cell level. This understanding has implications in functional genomics and potentially for identifying therapeutic targets. Various computational models have been developed to predict perturbational effects. While deep learning models excel at interpolating observed perturbational data, they tend to overfit in the lack of enough data and may not generalize well to unseen perturbations. In contrast, mechanistic models, such as linear causal models based on gene regulatory networks, hold greater potential for extrapolation, as they encapsulate regulatory information that can predict responses to unseen perturbations. However, their application has been limited to small studies due to overly simplistic assumptions, making them less effective in handling noisy, large-scale single-cell data. We propose a hybrid approach that combines a mechanistic causal model with variational deep learning, termed Single Cell Causal Variational Autoencoder (SCCVAE). The mechanistic model employs a learned regulatory network to represent perturbational changes as shift interventions that propagate through the learned network. SCCVAE integrates this mechanistic causal model into a variational autoencoder, generating rich, comprehensive transcriptomic responses. Our results indicate that SCCVAE exhibits superior performance over current state-of-the-art baselines for extrapolating to predict unseen perturbational responses. Additionally, for the observed perturbations, the latent space learned by SCCVAE allows for the identification of functional perturbation modules and simulation of single-gene knockdown experiments of varying penetrance, presenting a robust tool for interpreting and interpolating perturbational responses at the single-cell level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of alfalfa-switchgrass intercropping on microbial community structure and function

The use of nitrogen fertilizer on bioenergy crops such as switchgrass results in increased costs, nitrogen leaching and emissions of N 2 O, a potent greenhouse gas. Intercropping with nitrogen-fixing alfalfa has been proposed as an environmentally sustainable alternative, but the effects of synthetic fertilizer versus intercropping on soil microbial community functionality remain uncharacterized. Here we analysed 24 metagenomes from the upper soil layer of agricultural fields from Prosser, WA over two growing seasons and representing three agricultural practices: unfertilized switchgrass (control), fertilized switchgrass and switchgrass intercropped with alfalfa. The synthetic fertilization and intercropping did not result in major shifts of microbial community taxonomic and functional composition compared with the control plots, but a few significant changes were noted. Most notably, mycorrhizal fungi, ammonia-oxidizing archaea and bacteria increased in abundance with intercropping and fertilization. However, only betaproteobacterial ammonia-oxidizing bacteria abundance in fertilized plots significantly correlated to N 2 O emission and companion qPCR data. Collectively, a short period of intercropping elicits minor but significant changes in the soil microbial community toward nitrogen preservation and that intercropping may be a viable alternative to synthetic fertilization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The DECADE cosmic shear project III: validation of analysis pipeline using spatially inhomogeneous data

We present the pipeline for the cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog consisting of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The catalog derives from a large number of disparate observing programs and is therefore more inhomogeneous across the sky compared to existing lensing surveys. First, we use simulated data-vectors to show the sensitivity of our constraints to different analysis choices in our inference pipeline, including sensitivity to residual systematics. Next we use simulations to validate our covariance modeling for inhomogeneous datasets. Finally, we show that our choices in the end-to-end cosmic shear pipeline are robust against inhomogeneities in the survey, by extracting relative shifts in the cosmology constraints across different subsets of the footprint/catalog and showing they are all consistent within 1σ to 2σ. This is done for forty-six subsets of the data and is carried out in a fully consistent manner: for each subset of the data, we re-derive the photometric redshift estimates, shear calibrations, survey transfer functions, the data vector, measurement covariance, and finally, the cosmological constraints. Our results show that existing analysis methods for weak lensing cosmology can be fairly resilient towards inhomogeneous datasets. This also motivates exploring a wider range of image data for pursuing such cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗