Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “seismic tomography”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

3D seismic imaging of a fracture damage zone controlling reservoir compartmentalization at the Raft River EGS using multi-azimuth walkaway VSP

Accurate imaging of steeply dipping fracture zones in crystalline enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) is critical for constraining permeability architecture and guiding stimulation design. However, such structures remain poorly resolved by conventional surface seismic methods. We present a fully three-dimensional (3D) elastic-waveform inversion-migration workflow applied to multi-azimuth walkaway vertical seismic profiling (VSP) data acquired in a deviated borehole at the Raft River EGS. The workflow integrates first-arrival traveltime tomography, multi-scale elastic waveform inversion (EWI), and elastic least-squares reverse-time migration (ELSRTM) to recover high-resolution compressional-and shear-wave velocity models and to image structural discontinuities in the crystalline basement. The results reveal a laterally continuous low-velocity anomaly, with shear-wave velocity reductions of 25-30%, consistent with fractureinduced mechanical weakening. Two steeply dipping discontinuities bound a 50-80 m wide fracture damage zone. Independent constraints from microseismic clustering and geochemical compartmentalization corroborate the geometry and structural significance of this feature. Synthetic modeling further confirms that structures of this scale are resolvable (~30 m). These findings indicate that the Narrows structure is a distributed fracture damage zone rather than a discrete fault plane. By resolving fracture-zone geometry at the tens-of-meters scale using a single borehole, this workflow provides a practical and transferable approach for improving structural characterization, reducing uncertainty in permeability architecture, and supporting reservoir modeling and stimulation design in fractured crystalline EGS reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3D Time-Lapse Electrical Resistivity Imaging of Rock Damage Patterns and Gas Flow Paths Resulting from Two Underground Chemical Explosions

Abstract Rock damage from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) has a strong influence on sub-surface gas movement and on seismic waveform characteristics, both of which are used to detect UNEs. Although advanced numerical simulation capabilities exist to predict rock damage patterns and corresponding detection signals, those predictions are dependent on (generally) unknown properties of the host rock. For example, the effects of in-situ mechanical heterogeneities on the explosively generated damage/fractures that provide gas flow pathways to the surface are not well understood, due largely to the difficulty in accessing and characterizing the near-source region. In this paper we demonstrate the emerging use of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) for imaging rock damage and gas flow patterns resulting from two relatively small-scale underground chemical explosions. Pre-explosion ERT and crosshole seismic imaging revealed a natural fracture zone within the test bed. Post-explosion imaging revealed that the damage zone was non-symmetric and was focused primarily within the pre-existing fracture zone, located 10 m above the first explosion and 5 m above the second explosion. Time-lapse ERT imaging of heated air injected into the detonation borehole revealed the primary gas flow paths to be within the upper margin of the same primary damage zone. These results point to the utility of ERT imaging for understanding rock damage and gas flow patterns under experimental conditions, and to the importance of understanding the effects of geologic heterogeneity on UNE detection signals, particularly gas surface breakthrough times.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The role of stress and fluid saturation on the acoustic response of fractured rock

Standard rock physics models are formulated to describe the behavior of porous sedimentary reservoirs, with clean sandstones being the archetypal system; however, many situations demand geophysical monitoring of rocks with significantly different structures, such as low porosity, fractured reservoirs. Conventional models also suggest that these “stiff” reservoirs can be challenging to monitor seismically due to small fluid substitution effects, but the presence of fractures leads to stress dependence which may be leveraged for remote monitoring purposes. Using samples from the Duperow Formation (dolostone) obtained from the Danielson test well in Kevin Dome, MT, we conducted ultrasonic and multi-scale structural (profilometry, synchrotron micro-tomography, pressure sensitive film) measurements on naturally fractured core in order to characterize the effects of fluid substitution and effective stress on the acoustic response of fractured reservoir rock with a focus in particular on the textural and seismic characteristics of natural fractures. We find that changes in effective stress can yield changes in velocity of up to 20% and changes in attenuation up to 200%. Measured fluid substitution effects are resolvable, but stress effects dominate. These measurements provide insight into the physical processes controlling acoustic response of fractured rocks in general and can also be used to inform monitoring efforts in fractured reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Visualization of hydraulic fracture using physics-informed clustering to process ultrasonic shear waves

Ultrasonic transmission is sensitive to the spatial variation in mechanical properties of materials due to the presence of cracks/fractures. Wave propagation through fractured media introduces changes in the frequency content, travel time and transmission coefficient of the wave. A workflow based on physics-informed unsupervised learning is developed to process the transmitted ultrasonic-shear waveforms to non-invasively visualize the geomechanical alterations due to hydraulic fracturing. Novelty of the work involves the assignment of both statistically consistent and physically consistent clusters to the measurements of shear waveforms acquired across the one axial and two frontal planes. Physically consistent/relevant information is incorporated by considering the travel time of the peak of spectral energy and transmission coefficient of the transmitted waveform. The proposed workflow generates maps of geomechanical alterations across the frontal and axial planes of the sample. The outputs of the workflow are in good agreement with independent techniques viz. acoustic emission and X-ray computed tomography. Finally, the proposed workflow can be adapted for improved fracture characterization in the subsurface when processing sonic-logging, cross-wellbore seismic or surface seismic waveform data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PRISM3D: a 3-D reference seismic model for Iberia and adjacent areas

SUMMARY We present PRISM3D, a 3-D reference seismic model of P- and S-wave velocities for Iberia and adjacent areas. PRISM3D results from the combination of the most up-to-date earth models available for the region. It extends horizontally from 15°W to 5°E in longitude, 34°N to 46°N in latitude and vertically from 3.5 km above to 200 km below sea level, and is modelled on a regular grid with 10 and 0.5 km of grid node spacing in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. It was designed using models inferred from local and teleseismic body-wave tomography, earthquake and ambient noise surface wave tomography, receiver function analysis and active source experiments. It includes two interfaces, namely the topography/bathymetry and the Mohorovičić (Moho) discontinuity. The Moho was modelled from previously published receiver function analysis and deep seismic sounding results. To that end we used a probabilistic surface reconstruction algorithm that allowed to extract the mean of the Moho depth surface along with its associated standard deviation, which provides a depth uncertainty estimate. The Moho depth model is in good agreement with previously published models, although it presents slightly sharper gardients in orogenic areas such as the Pyrenees or the Betic-Rif system. Crustal and mantle P- and S-wave wave speed grids were built separately on each side of the Moho depth surface by weighted average of existing models, thus allowing to realistically render the speed gradients across that interface. The associated weighted standard deviation was also calculated, which provides an uncertainty estimation on the average wave speed values at any point of the grid. At shallow depths (<10 km), low P and S wave speeds and high VP/VS are observed in offshore basins, while the Iberian Massif, which covers a large part of western Iberia, appears characterized by a rather flat Moho, higher than average VP and VS and low VP/VS. Conversely, the Betic-Rif system seems to be associated with low VP and VS, combined with high VP/VS in comparison to the rest of the study area. The most prominent feature of the mantle is the well known high wave speed anomaly related to the Alboran slab imaged in various mantle tomography studies. The consistency of PRISM3D with previous work is verified by comparing it with two recent studies, with which it shows a good general agreement.The impact of the new 3-D model is illustrated through a simple synthetic experiment, which shows that the lateral variations of the wave speed can produce traveltime differences ranging from –1.5 and 1.5 s for P waves and from –2.5 and 2.5 s for S waves at local to regional distances. Such values are far larger than phase picking uncertainties and would likely affect earthquake hypocentral parameter estimations. The new 3-D model thus provides a basis for regional studies including earthquake source studies, Earth structure investigations and geodynamic modelling of Iberia and its surroundings.

Arroucau, P.↗

Active‐Source Seismic Imaging of Fault Re‐Activation and Leakage: An Injection Experiment at the Mt Terri Rock Laboratory, Switzerland

Abstract We conducted a time‐lapse seismic experiment utilizing automated active seismic source and sensor arrays to monitor a reactivated fault within the Opalinus clay formation at the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory (Switzerland), an analog caprock for geologic carbon storage. A series of six brine injections were conducted into the so‐called Main Fault to reactivate it. Seismic instrumentation in five monitoring boreholes on either side of the fault was used to continuously probe changes in P‐wave travel‐times associated with fault displacement and leakage. We performed time‐lapse travel‐time tomography on five hundred sequential data sets; this revealed a zone of decreased P‐wave velocity, up to 16 m/s, during each injection cycle, followed by a velocity increase during shut‐in. These results demonstrate varying elastic property perturbations, both spatially and temporally, along the fault plane during reactivation. We then interpreted these velocity changes in terms of fault dilation induced by pressurized fluids along the fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

STILGAR: Subsurface Models for Graymont Pleasant Gap Mine

The detection, location, and monitoring of underground structures are of great importance to national and global security. Tunnels and voids generate seismic signatures detectable at the surface, but using non-invasive seismic data to image near-surface presents several challenges in real-world applications. In this report, we describe the use of a dense surface seismic deployment to generate subsurface models of the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine - a single-layer mine with a complex structure embedded in a high-velocity P-wave limestone bedrock. Our approach consists of three key methods. We use P-wave arrival times from local blast events to perform a tomography inversion with the tomoTD method, constructing a P-wave velocity model of the subsurface. We model the layer above the mine using Rayleigh wave ellipticity and inversion techniques. We leverage ongoing anthropogenic activities to identify and locate noise sources both on the surface and within the subsurface. With this integrated approach we aim to overcome the challenges and enhance our ability to non-invasively characterize underground structures, contributing to improved seismic monitoring techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Volumetric and shear strain localization throughout triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Deformation localization is a widely observed, but rarely quantified process in the crust. Recent observations suggest that the localization of seismicity and fracture networks can help identify the approach to catastrophic failure. Here, we quantify the localization processes of the volumetric and deviatoric strain components in twelve triaxial compression experiments imaged with X-ray tomography. We capture three-dimensional images of the rock cores during triaxial compressing toward failure, and then calculate the local strain components using digital volume correlation. The divergence and curl of the incremental displacement vector field provide the volumetric and deviatoric components of the strain field. We quantify localization using the proportion of the rock occupied by high magnitudes of the volumetric and deviatoric strains, and the Gini coefficient of these high magnitude strains, which measures the deviation from a uniform process. We find that the vast majority, but not all, of the experiments experience strain localization toward failure. The rocks typically experience their maximum degree of strain localization not immediately preceding failure, but on average at 90% of the failure stress. The volumetric strain tends to localize more than the deviatoric strain. Finally, these observations support using the localization of the volumetric strain, along with the deviatoric strain, to identify the evolution of the precursory phase preceding earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

STILGAR End-of-Project Report

The Subsurface Tunnel Imaging LeveraGed by Analysis of Rayleigh wave ellipticity (STILGAR) project demonstrated an integrated geophysical approach for detecting, locating, and characterizing underground structural changes using dense seismic arrays and advanced inversion techniques. Field campaigns were conducted at two operational mines—the Redmond salt mine (Utah) and Graymont Pleasant Gap limestone mine (Pennsylvania)—providing real-world testbeds for monitoring anthropogenic subsurface activity. At the Redmond salt mine, seismic interferometry combined with back-projection inversion successfully identified continuous, low-amplitude signals from mining operations. The approach differentiated stationary from migrating anthropogenic sources, captured daily operational cycles, and validated the potential of passive seismic monitoring for remote detection of underground activity. At the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine, two dense seismic deployments in the spring and fall of 2023 generated over 4 TB of high-resolution data. Key outcomes included the relocation of 199 underground and 8 surface explosions with accuracies within tens of meters and the development of a 3D P-wave velocity model using the triple-difference tomography algorithm (tomoTD) that resolved major structural features such as the mine entrance, low-velocity tunnels, and roof-collapse areas. Ambient noise cross-correlation and back-projection analyses revealed persistent sources linked to ongoing mining activity, whereas horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) and ellipticity studies confirmed stable site responses across seasons and identified soil thickness trends consistent with regional erosional and depositional processes. Checkerboard and sensitivity tests further validated the robustness of the tomographic results. Overall, the findings emphasize that although significant progress has been made in subsurface imaging, further work is needed to enhance the detection and localization of underground structures. Accurate imaging requires higher frequencies, yet anthropogenic sources tend to dominate the seismic record at those frequencies, and high-frequency surface waves are affected by higher modes that complicate interpretation. The improved detection and localization of human-induced signals enabled detailed temporal and spatial mapping of daily mine operations, demonstrating the feasibility of continuous anthropogenic source monitoring. Sensitivity to signals from nontraditional sources, such as fan operations, highlights the broader applicability of this approach to other industrial environments in which continuous and impulsive signals are present. The field campaigns produced a substantial volume of high-quality seismic data, supporting the development and testing of new methods for seismic source characterization and subsurface imaging. Future deployments should include sensors capable of recording lower frequencies to probe deeper structures, increase bandwidth to enhance resolution and sensitivity to both shallow and deep targets, and collect additional large-scale datasets to refine imaging and source characterization techniques. Moreover, conducting 3D modeling studies of seismic wavefields at higher frequencies will provide a better understanding of wave scattering and cavity–wavefield interactions in complex underground environments. In conclusion, the STILGAR project demonstrated that integrated seismic monitoring can effectively characterize underground operations, capturing both natural and anthropogenic signals. The approaches developed provide a foundation for improved detection, localization, and imaging of subsurface structures and are directly transferable to broader industrial monitoring applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Thermal Plumbing System of Stromboli Volcano, Aeolian Islands (Italy) Inferred From Electrical Conductivity and Induced Polarization Tomography

Abstract We performed the first 3D island‐scale tomography of the electrical conductivity of Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) using 2D acquisition lines (37.2 km) and a total of 18,880 measurements and 2,402 unique electrode locations. This 3D data set was inverted using a Gauss‐Newton algorithm, parallel‐processing on an unstructured tetrahedral mesh containing 678,420 finite‐element nodes and 3,580,145 elements to account for the topography of the volcanic island. The tomogram exhibits a conductive body (10 −2 –1.0 S m −1 ) consistent with the location of CO 2 and temperature anomalies observed at the ground surface. It corresponds to the hydrothermal system with high electrical conductivity associated with alteration. In order to confirm this interpretation, a 2.5D large‐scale induced polarization tomography was performed crossing the volcano. The joint interpretation of the conductivity and normalized chargeability is done with a petrophysical model previously tested and verified at both shield‐ and strato‐volcanoes. This model implies that alteration (through the effect of the cation exchange capacity associated with clay minerals and zeolites) plays a strong role in both controlling the electrical conductivity and normalized chargeability at Stromboli volcano. A temperature tomogram, derived from the geoelectrical measurements, is consistent with surface temperature anomalies and the Very Long Period (VLP) seismicity related to the mild‐explosive activity. This survey displays at 600 m a.s.l. a lateral shift in the highest temperature location, also corresponding to the source of VLP seismicity. Structural boundaries have a major role in the hottest hydrothermal fluids rising below the active crater terrace of Stromboli volcano.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mapping Permafrost Variability and Degradation Using Seismic Surface Waves, Electrical Resistivity, and Temperature Sensing: A Case Study in Arctic Alaska

Subsurface processes significantly influence surface dynamics in permafrost regions, necessitating utilizing diverse geophysical methods to reliably constrain permafrost characteristics. This research uses multiple geophysical techniques to explore the spatial variability of permafrost in undisturbed tundra and its degradation in disturbed tundra in Utqiagvik, Alaska. Here, we integrate multiple quantitative techniques, including multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground temperature sensing, to study heterogeneity in permafrost’s geophysical characteristics. MASW results reveal active layer shear wave velocities (V s ) between 240 and 370 m/s, and permafrost V s between 450 and 1,700 m/s, typically showing a low-high-low velocity pattern. Additionally, we find an inverse relationship between in situ V s and ground temperature measurements. The V s profiles along with electrical resistivity profiles reveal cryostructures such as cryopeg and ice-rich zones in the permafrost layer. The integrated results of MASW and ERT provide valuable information for characterizing permafrost heterogeneity and cryostructure. Corroboration of these geophysical observations with permafrost core samples’ stratigraphies and salinity measurements further validates these findings. This combination of geophysical and temperature sensing methods along with permafrost core sampling confirms a robust approach for assessing permafrost’s spatial variability in coastal environments. Our results also indicate that civil infrastructure systems such as gravel roads and pile foundations affect permafrost by thickening the active layer, lowering the V s , and reducing heterogeneity. We show how the resulting V s profiles can be used to estimate key parameters for designing buildings in permafrost regions and maintaining existing infrastructure in polar regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrologic Impacts of a Strike-Slip Fault Zone: Insights from Joint 3D Body-Wave Tomography of Rock Valley

The Rock Valley fault zone (RVFZ), an intraplate strike-slip fault zone in the southern Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), hosted a series of very shallow (<3 km) earthquakes in 1993. The RVFZ may also have hydrological significance within the NNSS, potentially playing a role in regional groundwater flow, but there is a lack of local hydrological data. In the Spring of 2021, we collected active-source accelerated weight drop seismic data over part of the RVFZ to better characterize the shallow subsurface. Here, we manually picked ~17,000 P-wave travel times and over 14,000 S-wave travel times, which were inverted for P-wave velocity (V P ), S-wave velocity (V S ), and V P /V S ratio in a 3D joint tomographic inversion scheme. Seismic velocities are imaged as deep as ~700 m in areas and generally align with geologic and structural expectations. V P and V S are relatively reduced near mapped and inferred faults, with the most prominent lower V P and V S zone around the densest collection of faults. We image V P /V S ratios ranging from ~1.5 to ~2.4, the extremes of which occur at a depth of ~100 m and are juxtaposed across a fault. One possible interpretation of the imaged seismic velocities is enhanced fault damage near the densest collection of faults with relatively higher porosity and/or crack density at ~100 m depth, with patches of semiperched groundwater present in the sedimentary rock in higher V P /V S areas and drier rock in lower V P /V S areas. A relatively higher V P /V S area beneath the densest faults persists at depth, which suggests percolation of groundwater via the fault damage zone to the regionally connected lower carbonate aquifer. Potentially, the presence and movement of groundwater may have played a role in the 1993 earthquake aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Internal Structure of the Central Garlock Fault Zone From Ridgecrest Aftershocks Recorded by Dense Linear Seismic Arrays

Abstract We provide high‐resolution seismic imaging of the central Garlock fault using data recorded by two dense seismic arrays that cross the Ridgecrest rupture zone (B4) and the Garlock fault (A5). Analyses of fault zone head waves and P ‐wave delay times at array A5 show that the Garlock fault is a sharp bimaterial interface with P waves traveling ∼5% faster in the northern crustal block. The across‐fault velocity contrast agrees with regional tomography models and generates clear P ‐wave reflections in waveforms recorded by array B4. Kirchhoff migration of the reflected waves indicates a near‐vertical fault between 2 and 6 km depth. The P ‐wave delay times imply a ∼300‐m‐wide transition zone near the Garlock fault surface trace beneath array A5, offset to the side with faster velocities. The results provide important constraints for derivations of earthquake properties, simulations of ruptures and ground motion, and future imaging studies associated with the Garlock fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Surface-wave tomography of the Emeishan large igneous province (China): Magma storage system, hidden hotspot track, and its impact on the Capitanian mass extinction

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) are commonly associated with mass extinctions. However, the precise relations between LIPs and their impacts on biodiversity is enigmatic, given that they can be asynchronous. It has been proposed that the environmental impacts are primarily related to sill emplacement. Therefore, the structure of LIPs' magma storage system is critical because it dictates the occurrence and timing of mass extinction. We use surface-wave tomography to image the lithosphere under the Permian Emeishan large igneous province (ELIP) in southwestern China. We find a northeast-trending zone of high shear-wave velocity (Vs) and negative radial anisotropy (Vsv > Vsh; v and h are vertically and horizontally polarized S waves, respectively) in the crust and lithosphere. We rule out the possibilities of rifting or orogenesis to explain these seismic characteristics and interpret the seismic anomaly as a mafic-ultramafic, dike-dominated magma storage system of the ELIP. We further propose that the anomaly represents a hidden hotspot track that was emplaced before the ELIP eruption. A zone of higher velocity but less-negative radial anisotropy, on the hotspot track but to the northeast of the eruption center in the Panxi region, reflects an elevated proportion of sills emplaced at the incipient stage of the ELIP. Liberation of poisonous gases by the early sill intrusions explains why the mid-Capitanian global biota crisis preceded the peak ELIP eruption by 2–3 m.y.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring Asteroid Interiors: The Deep Interior Mission Concept

Deep Interior is a mission to determine the geophysical properties of near-Earth objects, including the first volumetric image of the interior of an asteroid. Radio reflection tomography will image the 3D distribution of complex dielectric properties within the ~1 km rendezvous target and hence map structural, density or compositional variations. Laser altimetry and visible imaging will provide high-resolution surface topography. Smart surface pods culminating in blast experiments, imaged by the high frame rate camera and scanned by lidar, will characterize active mechanical behavior and structure of surface materials, expose unweathered surface for NIR analysis, and may enable some characterization of bulk seismic response. Multiple flybys en route to this target will characterize a diversity of asteroids, probing their interiors with non-tomographic radar reflectance experiments. Deep Interior is a natural follow-up to the NEARShoemaker mission and will provide essential guidance for future in situ asteroid and comet exploration. While our goal is to learn the interior geology of small bodies and how their surfaces behave, the resulting science will enable pragmatic technologies required of hazard mitigation and resource utilization.

Asphaug, E.↗

Fracture Network Localization Preceding Catastrophic Failure in Triaxial Compression Experiments on Rocks

We quantify the spatial distribution of fracture networks throughout six in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on crystalline rocks at confining stresses of 5–35 MPa in order to quantify how fracture development controls the final macroscopic failure of the rock, a process analogous to those that control geohazards such as earthquakes and landslides. Tracking the proportion of the cumulative volume of fractures with volumes >90th percentile to the total fracture volume, ∑ v 90 / v t o t indicates that the fracture networks tend to increase in localization toward these largest fractures for up to 80% of the applied differential stress. The evolution of this metric also matches the evolution of the Gini coefficient, which measures the deviation of a population from uniformity. These results are consistent with observations of localizing low magnitude seismicity before large earthquakes in southern California. In both this analysis and the present work, phases of delocalization interrupt the general increase in localization preceding catastrophic failure, indicating that delocalization does not necessarily indicate a reduction of seismic hazard. However, the proportion of the maximum fracture volume to the total fracture volume does not increase monotonically. Experiments with higher confining stress tend to experience greater localization. To further quantify localization, we compare the geometry of the largest fractures, with volumes >90th percentile, to the best fit plane through these fractures immediately preceding failure. The r 2 scores and the mean distance of the fractures to the plane indicate greater localization in monzonite than in granite. The smaller mean mineral diameter and lower confining stress in the granite experiments may contribute to this result. Tracking these various metrics of localization reveals a close association between macroscopic yielding and the acceleration of fracture network localization. Near yielding, ∑ v 90 / v t o t and the Gini coefficient increase while the mean distance to the final failure plane decreases. Macroscopic yielding thus occurs when the rate of fracture network localization increases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Crustal Scale Travel Time Prediction with the SALSA3D Framework and Machine Learning

The SALSA3D project aims to improve our models used in travel time prediction. The current version uses tomographic modeling for propagation through the Earth’s mantle because of the large number (order of millions) of observations of seismic phases which primarily traverse the Earth’s mantle and the ability to pose the travel time problem as a set of linear equations. However, all seismic rays traverse the crust to reach receivers at the surface and therefore models of propagation through the crust are required. Therefore, the primary motivation for this study is to explore how to increase the scope of the SALSA3D project to phases which travel primarily through the crust. In this report, we evaluate new, machine learning based and physics-based methods to model these travel times for integration into the SALSA3D framework. Our results suggest that using our existing physics-based travel time tomography method is a viable approach for the regional to global scale, but better predictive capabilities can be achieved through a neural network trained on the region of interest for near-regional offsets. We suggest future iterations of SALSA3D should incorporate machine learning tools such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks or Bayesian Neural Networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗