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DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of geophysical techniques for monitoring secondary CO 2 storage plumes

For geologic carbon storage, the ability to detect secondary CO 2 plumes—defined as those CO 2 plumes accumulating outside the intended storage reservoir—is fundamental to preventing unexpected CO 2 migration into groundwater resources and for risk and liability management. Understanding the sensitivity of various geophysical methods to secondary plumes is crucial for designing cost-effective monitoring schemes. We use several modeling scenarios to demonstrate the process of assessing sensitivities and detection thresholds of three primary geophysical techniques—surface seismic, borehole-to-surface electromagnetic (EM), and surface and borehole gravity—for early detection of secondary CO 2 plumes in the post-injection phase. While seismic reflection methods are often considered in monitoring strategies to track the evolution of CO 2 plumes, they are also the most expensive. Due to cost considerations, especially for long-term post-injection monitoring, other techniques complement seismic monitoring when designing an adaptive monitoring network. Borehole-to-surface EM or surface gravity surveys are feasible for time-lapse monitoring of deep secondary CO 2 plumes. Furthermore, these surveys could be carried at intervals defined by site-specific conditions. If time-lapse EM and/or gravity surveys detect any signal responses beyond the expected change, it would trigger a need for the higher resolution seismic survey.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Material transfers detection with seismic observations

We are exploring the use of data from a seismic network around a research nuclear reactor and isotope production facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to study activity patterns related to the transfer of nuclear material. A sensor network with eight seismometers was installed around the High Flux Isotope Reactor and the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center and started operating in October 2019. These data are used to detect and characterize operational events around facility. We are using those data to extract signals related to the movement of vehicles involved in the transport of nuclear materials (e.g., transportation of reactor fuel, targets, and product isotopes). Large vehicles produce mechanical energy that can be observed as seismic signals, either as the result of sound emanating from the vehicle engine or by the generation of surface waves as a response of the ground to the load of the vehicles. In particular, the station located near the entrance gate of the facility displays a clear seismic signature as vehicles cross a metal platform on the ground. This signal is characterized by sharp energy bursts that correspond to the number of axles on the vehicle. We developed and are testing an algorithm to identify sequences of energy bursts to count and characterize vehicles of different sizes. We are also exploring the use of seismic polarization analysis to measure the degree of polarization of the observed signals. These two techniques for detection and characterization of vehicles used for nuclear material transfers will be validated with seismic data from a targeted collection using different vehicles and routes similar to the ones used in real-life scenarios at the High Flux Isotope Reactor.

Marcillo, Omar↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Clustering earthquake signals and background noises in continuous seismic data with unsupervised deep learning

The continuously growing amount of seismic data collected worldwide is outpacing our abilities for analysis, since to date, such datasets have been analyzed in a human-expert intensive, supervised fashion. Moreover, analyses that are conducted can be strongly biased by the standard models employed by seismologists. In response to both of these challenges, we develop a new unsupervised machine learning framework for detecting and clustering seismic signals in continuous seismic records. Our approach combines a deep scattering network and a Gaussian mixture model to cluster seismic signal segments and detect novel structures. To illustrate the power of the framework, we analyze seismic data acquired during the June 2017 Nuugaatsiaq, Greenland landslide. We demonstrate the blind detection and recovery of the repeating precursory seismicity that was recorded before the main landslide rupture, which suggests that our approach could lead to more informative forecasting of the seismic activity in seismogenic areas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Site Effects and Their Influence on Earthquake Source Parameter Estimations Using a Dense Array in Oklahoma

We investigate the effects of site response on source parameter estimates using earthquakes recorded by the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO). While it is well known that near-surface unconsolidated sediments can cause an apparent breakdown of earthquake self-similarity, the influence of laterally varying site conditions remains unclear. We analyze site conditions across the 1825-station array on a river plain within an area of 40 km by 23 km using vertical ground motions from 14 regional earthquakes. While the source radiation pattern controls P-wave ground motions below 8 Hz, the surface geology correlates with P-wave ground motions above 8 Hz and S-wave ground motions at 2–21 Hz. Stations installed in alluvial sediments have vertical ground motions that can exceed three times the array median. We use the variation of ground motion of regional earthquakes across the array as a proxy for site effects. The corner frequencies and stress drops of local earthquakes ( M L = 0.01–3) estimated using a standard single-spectra approach show negative correlations with the site-effect proxy, while the seismic moments show positive correlations. In contrast, the spectral-ratio approach effectively shows no correlation. The overall bias is small as expected for this relatively homogeneous structure; accurate estimation of site-related biases requires at least 30 stations. Correcting for site-related biases reduces the standard deviations of the source parameters by less than 13% of the total variations. Remaining variations are partially associated with source directivity and model misfits— as small earthquakes can have complex ruptures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pretest Modeling A Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Shake Test

The U.S. Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a dry canister storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental U.S. to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. This paper describes the pretest predictions made with LS-DYNA models of the mockup storage systems. The test will use two dry storage system configurations, a mockup vertical concrete cask (VCC) and a mockup horizontal storage module (HSM). The test will use a production-quality canister and basket. Within the canister will be four instrumented fuel assemblies with fuel rods containing surrogate mass and 28 instrumented dummy assemblies that are intended to match the mass and outer dimension of a fuel assembly. The finite element models include models of the VCC and HSM on the shake table to calculate the system level dynamic responses and separate single fuel assembly models to calculate stress and strain in fuel assembly components. Both types of models include nonlinear behavior like rod-to-rod contact and the ability for VCC’s to rock and slide. This paper presents the expected response of the VCC, HSM, and fuel assemblies to the shake table testing that is planned to start in April of 2024. The earthquake conditions represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test data is expected to confirm the expectation that fuel rod cladding will remain intact, fuel assembly structural components like guide tubes will remain intact, and no significant VCC sliding or tipping will occur in the range of conditions to be tested with the shake table.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explosive Yield Estimation Using Regional Seismic Moment Tensors

Here, we use the Pasyanos and Chiang (2022) data set to calculate the seismic moment M 0 for each explosion and use the measured explosive yield W to validate the W~M 0 relationship in Denny and Johnson (1991; hereafter, DJ91). The M 0 is corrected by transforming to a potency tensor and applying more appropriate near-source geophysical parameter values in the moment estimate. The mean residual between observed and predicted yield is near zero; however, the standard deviation of the residuals results in an F-value (a 95% confidence factor) of about 5. We re-estimate the coefficients in the DJ91 model and find similar values and only a slight improvement in the F-value. Next, we embark on a similar model selection process as DJ91, allowing for non-cube-root yield scaling and other plausible near-source elastic moduli. As was found by DJ91, the yield dependence is not significantly different from unity, and a cube root assumption is valid. Therefore, we yield scale the seismic moment and test the significance of all plausible explanatory variables. Isotropic moment performs better in the response variable than total moment. The preference for isotropic moment could be due to its relationship to volume change, which would be more directly affected by explosive yield. Surprisingly, we find that the overburden pressure, which is a function of depth, is not a significant parameter in the model. We hypothesize that this is due to the competing depth effects on source asymmetry and the incorporation of depth in the Green’s functions used to calculate the seismic moment tensors. Importantly, this emphasizes that only seismic moment tensor-derived moments should be used in these models. After removing insignificant model parameters, we are left with a simple model to predict explosive yield $\widehat{W}$ in kt from isotropic moment M I in N·m, $\widehat{W}$=κ –1.4132 10 0.035626GP M I , in which κ and GP are the near-source bulk modulus and gas porosity in Pa and %, respectively. The F-value for this model is approximately 3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural response reconstruction using a system-equivalent singular vector basis

Here, this paper develops a novel method for reconstructing the full-field response of structural dynamic systems using sparse measurements. The singular value decomposition is applied to a frequency response matrix relating the structural response to physical loads, base motion, or modal loads. The left singular vectors form a non-physical reduced basis that can be used for response reconstruction with far fewer sensors than existing methods. The contributions of the singular vectors to measured response are termed singular-vector loads (SVLs) and are used in a regularized Bayesian framework to generate full-field response estimates and confidence intervals. The reconstruction framework is applicable to the estimation of single data records and power spectral densities from multiple records. Reconstruction is successfully performed in configurations where the number of SVLs to identify is less than, equal to, and greater than the number of sensors used for reconstruction. In a simulation featuring a seismically excited shear structure, SVL reconstruction significantly outperforms modal FRF-based reconstruction and successfully estimates full-field responses with as few as two uniaxial accelerometers. SVL reconstruction is further verified in a simulation featuring an acoustically excited cylinder. Finally, response reconstruction and uncertainty quantification are performed on an experimental structure with three shaker inputs and 27 triaxial accelerometer outputs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing

Note: This is the final public release version of PNNL-31671 Draft, which was previously released to the sponsor for review. The intent is the public release version will be PNNL-31671. There are no significant changes from the earlier draft version. This unlimited distribution report is the deliverable for M3SF-21PN010202014: Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing. This report summarizes the modeling, analysis, and test plan support completed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the spent nuclear fuel dry storage system seismic test plan through May of 2021. Test plan preparation is planned to continue until the seismic test is completed in July of 2022. This report covers preliminary structural dynamic model development and computer-aided design of test hardware. Based on preliminary modeling, the strongest earthquakes under consideration in this test program provide mechanical loading on the spent nuclear fuel that is comparable to the 30 cm cask drop scenario, although the loads do not appear to be strong enough to cause significant permanent deformation of the fuel assembly spacer grids. The potential for grid deformation during the test will be assessed when the proposed shake table motion becomes available. The weakest earthquakes considered in this test are expected to be comparable to the mechanical loads witnessed in the multimodal transportation test of 2017. The horizontal canister system is predicted to provide nearly-uniform loading condition on the fuel assemblies it contains, while the vertical cask system is predicted to cause non-uniform dynamic loads on the fuel assemblies. In the horizontal case, gravity keeps the fuel assemblies in contact with one basket wall surface unless the loads are strong enough to cause a separation. In the vertical case, the fuel assemblies are relatively long and slender, and seismic motion in the anticipated test range is predicted to cause the assemblies to lean, tilt, and impact the basket walls throughout the seismic event. These gap closures are a nonlinear force transmission condition, so the vertical system is expected to have more variation and variability than the horizontal system. While the horizontal system is expected to have a relatively more linear response than the vertical system, there is still the potential for nonlinear behavior in the horizontal system because the fuel assemblies are free to slide, bounce, and impact the basket walls if the seismic loads are strong enough. One major conclusion of this study is that the use of mixed fuel assemblies in the canister will be acceptable. There are differences in overall system response when the mass, center of gravity, or gaps are changed, but the changes in response are within the bounds of a system that contains completely homogeneous fuel assemblies. One important observation is that the loading for each individual fuel assembly within the vertical canister is expected to be different from that of the others because of nonlinearities in the system. The horizontal canister system is expected to have a more uniform and more predictable response than the vertical canister, making variations in fuel assembly characteristics easier to account for. One important recommendation that comes from this modeling work is to repeat some of the strongest shake tests at different angles, particularly for the vertical cask system. Modeling predicts that strong seismic motion will cause the fuel assemblies to close initial gaps and impact the fuel basket walls when the canister is in the vertical cask configuration. Each shake test will impose a pre-defined three-dimensional time history on the cask system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Dislocations in the Anelasticity of the Upper Mantle

Dislocation‐based dissipation mechanisms potentially control the viscoelastic response of Earth's upper mantle across a variety of geodynamic contexts, including glacial isostatic adjustment, postseismic creep, and seismic‐wave attenuation. However, there is no consensus on which dislocation‐based, microphysical process controls the viscoelastic behavior of the upper mantle. Although both intergranular (plastic anisotropy) and intragranular (backstress) mechanisms have been proposed, there is currently insufficient laboratory data to discriminate between those mechanisms. Here, we present the results of forced‐oscillation experiments in a deformation‐DIA apparatus at confining pressures of 3–7 GPa and temperatures of 298–1370 K. Our experiments tested the viscoelastic response of polycrystalline olivine—the main constituent of the upper mantle—at stress amplitudes from 70 to 2,800 MPa. Mechanical data are complemented by microstructural analyses of grain size, crystallographic preferred orientation, and dislocation density. We observe amplitude‐ and frequency‐dependent attenuation and modulus relaxation and find that numerical solutions of the backstress model match our results well. Therefore, we argue that interactions among dislocations, rather than intergranular processes (e.g., plastic anisotropy or grain boundary sliding), control the viscoelastic behavior of polycrystalline olivine in our experiments. In addition, we present a linearized version of the constitutive equations of the backstress model and extrapolate it to conditions typical of seismic‐wave propagation in the upper mantle. Our extrapolation demonstrates that the backstress model can explain the magnitude of seismic‐wave attenuation in the upper mantle, although some modification is required to explain the weak frequency dependence of attenuation observed in nature and in previous experimental work.

Hein, Diede [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal modulation of crustal seismicity in northeastern Japan driven by snow load

Numerous studies have reported that surface hydrological loading can seasonally modulate seismicity rates at crustal depths. For example, substantial winter snow accumulation occurs across the Japanese Islands, and these snowy regions appear to have seasonally modulated the occurrence of previous large inland earthquakes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of seasonal stress changes on crustal seismicity to deepen our understanding of earthquake generation. Here we constrain seasonal changes in the surface load across northeastern Japan using Global Navigation Satellite System surface displacements and evaluate the potential relationship between temporal trends in inland seismicity and estimated seasonal stress changes. The spatial distribution of the seasonal surface load is consistent with snow depth along the Sea of Japan. The inland seismicity beneath northeastern Japan is modestly modulated by the seasonal stress changes that are induced by the annual snow load. However, this seasonal response is weaker than that in other regions. This weak modulation may be due to the small surface-load-induced stress perturbation relative to the long-term-averaged stressing rate and/or the limited presence of crustal fluids to trigger seismicity in Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal Modulation of Crustal Seismicity in Northeastern Japan Driven by Snow Load

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring Seasonal Shear Wave Velocity Changes in the Top 6 m at Garner Valley in Southern California With Borehole Data

Abstract Subsurface structures play important roles in seismic ground motion, crustal hydrology, stability of the built environment, and more. Constraining temporal changes of subsurface shear wave velocity ( V S ) can provide useful information to all these topics and the growing field of hydrological monitoring with seismic velocity. Using borehole records at Garner Valley, CA, we estimate seasonal subsurface V S variations from impulse response functions (IRFs) of earthquake data (2005–2018) along with IRFs and cross‐correlation of cross‐hole experiment data (2015–2018). The inferred V S variations are up to ∼25% in the top 6 m and ∼10% at 2–5 m in depth. The V S variations correlate strongly with the water table depth changes, suggesting that the changes are mostly due to fluctuations of pore pressure in the shallow material. The shallow velocity changes alter the near‐surface conditions, can affect seismic hazard estimation, and may be improperly attributed to deeper processes without careful analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining Stress Orientation in Rock Valley, Nevada, Using Ambient Seismic Noise

The stress field and the mechanical properties of rocks are important to consider for nuclear explosion monitoring due to their effect on seismic wave radiation from earthquakes and explosions. At the Rock Valley Direct Comparison site, the regional orientation of the maximum horizontal compressive stress (SH max ) is well constrained, but it is unknown whether there are local heterogeneities. Here, I show that stress-induced anisotropy in nonlinear elasticity can be used to estimate the orientation of SH max . Rocks have compliant internal contacts, such as fractures and mineral grain boundaries, that respond to applied strains more strongly than individual mineral crystals. This strain response is asymmetric between compressive and dilatational strains and is affected by anisotropy in the ambient stress field. Traditional seismic velocity measurements are of strain-averaged velocity, which is less sensitive than nonlinear elasticity to the behavior of compliant internal contacts and therefore the stress field and fracture behavior. My results show that the orientation of SH max measured using ambient seismic noise aligns with regional estimates, with some heterogeneity that can also be explained by the limitations of the seismic array. I demonstrate the potential of a passive technique for monitoring the stress field in places that currently lack local measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Monitoring Terrestrial Water Storage, Drought and Seasonal Changes in Central Oklahoma With Ambient Seismic Noise

Abstract Significant imbalances in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and severe drought have been observed around the world as a consequence of climate changes. Improving our ability to monitor TWS and drought is critical for water‐resource management and water‐deficit estimation. We use continuous seismic ambient noise to monitor temporal evolution of near‐surface seismic velocity, dv / v , in central Oklahoma from 2013 to 2022. The derived dv / v is found to be negatively correlated with gravitational measurements and groundwater depths, showing the impact of groundwater storage on seismic velocities. The hydrological effects involving droughts and recharge of groundwater occur on a multi‐year time scale and dominate the overall derived velocity changes. The thermoelastic response to atmospheric temperature variations occurs primarily on a yearly timescale and dominates the superposed seasonal velocity changes in this study. The occurrences of droughts appear simultaneously with local peaks of dv / v , demonstrating the sensitivity of near‐surface seismic velocities to droughts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimental study correlating damage and permeability in concrete using confined, flattened Brazilian disks

This research experimentally studies coupled hydro-mechanical relationships using flattened Brazilian disks under confinement, with concurrent permeability measurements and acoustic emission monitoring. A series of tests are performed on concrete, as representative samples of brittle geo-materials, under a range of confining stresses between 2.76 and 13.79 MPa. Acoustic emission data is used to quantify damage and identify damage thresholds. Damage is then correlated to pre-peak changes in permeability. The advancement of models that couple transport properties to mechanical responses are of interest in the fields of carbon sequestration, hydrofracking, production of geothermal energy, induced seismicity, and underground nuclear waste storage, and these experiments validate a novel experimental approach towards investigating hydro-mechanical relationships.

Boyce, S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The role of stress and fluid saturation on the acoustic response of fractured rock

Standard rock physics models are formulated to describe the behavior of porous sedimentary reservoirs, with clean sandstones being the archetypal system; however, many situations demand geophysical monitoring of rocks with significantly different structures, such as low porosity, fractured reservoirs. Conventional models also suggest that these “stiff” reservoirs can be challenging to monitor seismically due to small fluid substitution effects, but the presence of fractures leads to stress dependence which may be leveraged for remote monitoring purposes. Using samples from the Duperow Formation (dolostone) obtained from the Danielson test well in Kevin Dome, MT, we conducted ultrasonic and multi-scale structural (profilometry, synchrotron micro-tomography, pressure sensitive film) measurements on naturally fractured core in order to characterize the effects of fluid substitution and effective stress on the acoustic response of fractured reservoir rock with a focus in particular on the textural and seismic characteristics of natural fractures. We find that changes in effective stress can yield changes in velocity of up to 20% and changes in attenuation up to 200%. Measured fluid substitution effects are resolvable, but stress effects dominate. These measurements provide insight into the physical processes controlling acoustic response of fractured rocks in general and can also be used to inform monitoring efforts in fractured reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗