SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “seismic prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1983

Subducted slabs and the geoid: Constraints on mantle rheology and flow

The total geoid anomaly which is the result of a given density contrast in a convecting viscous earth is affected by the mass anomalies associated with the flow induced deformation of the upper surface and internal compositional boundaries, as well as by the density contrast itself is discussed. If the internal density contrasts can be estimated, the depth and variation of viscosity with depth of the convecting system can be constrained. The observed long wavelength geoid is highly correlated with that predicted by a density model for seismically active subducted slabs. The amplitude of the correlation is explained if the density contrasts associated with subduction extend into the lower mantle or if subducted slabs exceeding 350 km in thickness are piled up over horizontal distances of thousands of km at the base of the upper mantle. Mantle wide convection in a mantle that has a viscosity increasing with depth provides the explanation of the long-wavelength geoid anomalies over subduction zones.

Hager, B. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Subducted slabs and the geoid - Constraints on mantle rheology and flow

Hager, B. H.↗

NASA NTRS1968

Briefing on Sonic Boom and Aircraft Noise

This document is a presentation for a NAS-NRC committee on the SuperSonic Transport (SST) sonic boom. It consists of copies of the slides presented during the briefing. The topics covered in reference to Sonic Booms are: the result of sonic boom results on generation and propagation, the atmospheric effects, flight research and laboratory research and prediction theory developments, the structural responses, seismic responses and simulation and human factors from the recent research on the effects of sonic booms, Domestic SST, and evaluation of certain minimum boom concepts from advanced configuration studies. The topics covered in the aircraft noise section are studies on compressor noise reduction, acoustic treatment of nacelle ducts, some technical problems of airplane certification and studies relating to subjective responses.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2008

Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Guidelines for use in Aerospace Vehicle Development

This document provides guidelines for the terrestrial environment that are specifically applicable in the development of design requirements/specifications for NASA aerospace vehicles, payloads, and associated ground support equipment. The primary geographic areas encompassed are the John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL; Vandenberg AFB, CA; Edwards AFB, CA; Michoud Assembly Facility, New Orleans, LA; John C. Stennis Space Center, MS; Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX; George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and the White Sands Missile Range, NM. This document presents the latest available information on the terrestrial environment applicable to the design and operations of aerospace vehicles and supersedes information presented in NASA-HDBK-1001 and TM X-64589, TM X-64757, TM-78118, TM-82473, and TM-4511. Information is included on winds, atmospheric thermodynamic models, radiation, humidity, precipitation, severe weather, sea state, lightning, atmospheric chemistry, seismic criteria, and a model to predict atmospheric dispersion of aerospace engine exhaust cloud rise and growth. In addition, a section has been included to provide information on the general distribution of natural environmental extremes in the conterminous United States, and world-wide, that may be needed to specify design criteria in the transportation of space vehicle subsystems and components. A section on atmospheric attenuation has been added since measurements by sensors on certain Earth orbital experiment missions are influenced by the Earth s atmosphere. There is also a section on mission analysis, prelaunch monitoring, and flight evaluation as related to the terrestrial environment inputs. The information in these guidelines is recommended for use in the development of aerospace vehicle and related equipment design and associated operational criteria, unless otherwise stated in contract work specifications. The terrestrial environmental data in these guidelines are primarily limited to information below 90 km altitude.

D L Johnson↗

NASA NTRS2020

InSight Entry, Descent and Landing Pre-Flight Performance Predictions

On November 26, 2018, the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) lander successfully touched down on the surface of Mars. Over its seven-plus year development, NASA Langley Research Center’s (LaRC) Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was used to assess the mission’s Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) vehicle system performance against related requirements across the full range of possible environmental and spacecraft conditions. Much of the simulation code was derived from the Phoenix mission, for which this vehicle is very similar. The InSight six degree-of-freedom simulation included models for Mars atmosphere, gravity and digital elevation maps of the landing location. Additionally, vehicle specific aerodynamic, parachute, engine, navigation sensor, flight software and landing radar models were also included. A set of dispersions for each model, as well as for additional simulation input parameters, were also included in order to provide a statistical, Monte Carlo prediction of the EDL system performance. An overview of the pre-flight performance assessments completed, including the various simulation campaigns used, will be provided. Ultimately, this work was critical in the assessment of readiness for InSight launch. A brief description of the use of this simulation in support of flight operations is also discussed.

Robert W Maddock↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 6-3712: Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks by GTC Analytics, presented by Jesse Williams. This video slide presentation discusses the development of machine learning-based predictive tools to estimate the magnitude-frequency response of stimulation-induced seismicity. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rocking response of liquid-filled cylindrical tanks

The hydrodynamic response of liquid-filled storage tanks subjected to translational earthquake shaking has been the focus of studies for more than 75 years. In service, tanks experience six components of seismic input, with rocking due to support flexibility and/or rotational components of ground motion. Published theory for predicting hydrodynamic responses in rigid cylindrical tanks due to rotational seismic input is examined. Analytical solutions for pressure in the fluid and on the tank wall, and base moment are modified to account for the effects of angular displacements at the base. A finite element model of a water-filled cylindrical tank using the Arbitrary Lagrangian and Eulerian (ALE) solver in LS-DYNA is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed expressions for three base rocking motions. Results from the modified analytical solutions and the finite element model are in excellent agreement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and Potential of Waveform Modeling for Crustal Scale Predictions

Waveform modeling is crucial to improving our understanding of observed seismograms. Forward simulation of wavefields provides quantitative methods of testing interactions between complicated source functions and the propagation medium. Here, we discuss three experiments designed to improve under standing of high frequency seismic wave propagation. First, we compare observed and predicted travel times of crustal phases for a set of real observed earthquakes with calculations and synthetic seismograms. Second, we estimate the frequency content of a series of nearly co-located earthquakes of varying magnitude for which we have a relatively well- known 1D velocity model. Third, we apply stochastic perturbations on top of a 3D tomographic model and qualitatively assess how those variations map to differences in the seismograms. While different in scope and aim, these three vignettes illustrate the current state of crustal scale waveform modeling and the potential for future studies to better constrain the structure of the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Effect of Redox Conditions on Seismic Waves in Iron-Bearing Olivine: Implications for Understanding Planetary Interiros Through Seismilogy

Seismic data, inclusive of velocities and attenuation, can be utilized to elucidate the physical state of planetary interiors]. However, numerous micromechanical factors have been either experimentally demonstrated, or theoretically considered, to affect the propagation and dissipation of seismic energy within crystalline solids - including, but not limited to, changes in grain size, temperature, melt fraction, pressure and dislocation density. Thus, observed variations in seismic wave speeds and attenuation may be used to ultimately ‘map’ variations in physical properties, such as those listed above, within planetary bodies. But, in order to complete a successful inversion of seismic data into representations of physical properties, a first requirement is to obtain a fundamental laboratory based understanding of how each of these possible factors individually influences seismic waves. Here we conduct an experimental study with the initial objective to further understand one of the most commonly invoked, yet least studied, mechanisms that could alter intrinsic seismic wave attenuation: water content (occurring as chemically-bound hydroxyl). The historical basis for determining the effect of water on seismic properties was established predominantly through analogy with large-strain creep experiments conducted on olivine under water-saturated conditions. While these deformation experiments routinely demonstrate a weakening of olivine in the presence of water, they represent a fundamentally different deformation regime in comparison to the microstrains experienced due to a passing seismic wave. Thus, in order to directly assess the effects of water on seismic properties, small-strain experiments are required. Substantially modified seismic properties in the presence of water have been observed previously at low strains and low frequencies, but only in a single exploratory study conducted under water-saturated conditions. Thus, to properly test the theoretical predictions we conducted a systematic study of the seismic properties of olivine using low-frequency torsional oscillation on aggregates containing varying concentrations of bound hydroxyl, for the first time at under saturated conditions.

Cline, C. J., II↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time-lapse seismic inversion for CO 2 saturation with SeisCO2Net: An application to Frio-II site

Seismic monitoring of geological CO 2 storage (GCS) involves highly nonlinear seismic inversion and petrophysical inversion, making it challenging to estimate CO 2 volume efficiently and detect possible early CO 2 leakages. Deep learning (DL) using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has shown promise in solving highly nonlinear seismic inversion problems. However, direct estimation of CO 2 plume extent/saturation from time-lapse seismic gathers using DL is still underexplored, with no reported field applications to date. The investigation of field data is primarily hindered by scarcity of field data for neural network training. Other obstacles include highly nonlinear seismic-petrophysics inverse relationship, and presence of noise in field seismic data. We introduce SeisCO2Net, a deep CNN that predicts CO 2 saturation maps directly from time-lapse full waveform shot gathers. For training, we use site-specific geological information, fluid flow physics, rock physics, and seismic modeling to generate synthetic datasets that closely resemble the CO 2 storage site. Synthetic tests show promising results, inspiring us to apply SeisCO2Net's trained weights on field data collected at Frio-II GCS site by leveraging transfer learning principles. As reference, we compare SeisCO2Net's predicted CO 2 saturation maps with results obtained from physics-based inversion. Our analyses show both methods display similar CO 2 plume shapes, reasonable CO 2 plume characteristics, and comparable saturation values. Our results suggest pre-training CNNs on physics-informed synthetic datasets and then applying the learned weights to field data is a viable approach to estimating field CO 2 saturation. This method effectively addresses the scarcity of field training data, thus encouraging the feasibility of long-term GCS monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Urban Seismic Site Characterization by Fiber-Optic Seismology

ccurate ground motion prediction requires detailed site effect assessment, but in urban areas where such assessments are most important, geotechnical surveys are difficult to perform, limiting their availability. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) offers an appealing alternative by repurposing existing fiber-optic cables, normally employed for telecommunication, as an array of seismic sensors. We present a proof-of-concept demonstration by using DAS to produce high-resolution maps of the shallow subsurface with the Stanford DAS array, California. We describe new methods and their assumptions to assess H/V spectral ratio—a technique widely used to estimate the natural frequency of the soil—and to extract Rayleigh wave dispersion curves from ambient seismic field. These measurements are jointly inverted to provide models of shallow seismic velocities and sediment thicknesses above bedrock in central campus. The good agreement with an independent survey validates the methodology and demonstrates the power of DAS for microzonation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Impact investigations will be an important aspect of the InSight mission. One of the scientific goals of the mission is a measurement of the current impact rate at Mars. Impacts will additionally inform the major goal of investigating the interior structure of Mars. In this paper, we review the current state of knowledge about seismic signals from impacts on the Earth, Moon, and laboratory experiments. We describe the generalized physical models that can be used to explain these signals. A discussion of the appropriate source time function for impacts is presented, along with spectral characteristics including the cutoff frequency and its dependence on impact momentum. Estimates of the seismic efficiency (ratio between seismic and impact energies) vary widely. Our preferred value for the seismic efficiency at Mars is 5 × 10−4, which we recommend using until we can measure it during the InSight mission, when seismic moments are not used directly. Effects of the material properties at the impact point and at the seismometer location are considered. We also discuss the processes by which airbursts and acoustic waves emanate from bolides, and the feasibility of detecting such signals. We then consider the case of impacts on Mars. A review is given of the current knowledge of present-day cratering on Mars: the current impact rate, characteristics of those impactors such as velocity and directions, and the morphologies of the craters those impactors create. Several methods of scaling crater size to impact energy are presented. The Martian atmosphere, although thin, will cause fragmentation of impactors, with implications for the resulting seismic signals. We also benchmark several different seismic modeling codes to be used in analysis of impact detections, and those codes are used to explore the seismic amplitude of impactinduced signals as a function of distance from the impact site. We predict a measurement of the current impact flux will be possible within the timeframe of the prime mission (one Mars year) with the detection of ∼ a few to several tens of impacts. However, the error bars on these predictions are large. Specific to the InSight mission, we list discriminators of seismic signals from impacts that will be used to distinguish them from marsquakes. We describe the role of the InSight Impacts Science Theme Group during mission operations, including a plan for possible night-time meteor imaging. The impacts detected by these methods during the InSight mission will be used to improve interior structure models, measure the seismic efficiency, and calculate the size frequency distribution of current impacts.

Ingrid Daubar↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Time Lapse VSP Integration Workflow: A Case Study at Farnsworth CO2-EOR Project

Abstract This study aims to develop a 4D Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) integration workflow to improve the prediction of subsurface stress changes. The selected study site is a 5-spot pattern within the ongoing CO2-EOR operations at the Farnsworth Field Unit FWU in Ochiltree County, Texas. The specific pattern has undergone extensive geological and geomechanical characterization through the acquisition of 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core. This workflow constrains a numerical hydromechanical model by applying a penalty function formed between "modeled" versus "observed" time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. Analyses of geophysical logs and ultra-sonic measurements on core exhibit measurable sensitivities to changes in both fluid saturation and mean effective stress. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model and stress-velocity relationship, which inform the numerical models used to generate the "modeled" portion of the penalty function. The "observed" portion of the penalty function is provided by a novel elastic full-waveform inversion of the available 3D baseline and three monitor surveys to produce high-quality estimates of time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. The modeling workflow accounts sequentially for fluid substitution and stress impacts. Hydrodynamic and geomechanical properties of the 3D coupled numerical model are estimated through geostatistical integration of well log and core data with 3D seismic inversion products. Changes in seismic velocities due to fluid substitution are computed using the Biot-Gassmann workflow and site-specific rock physics. Stress impacts on time-lapse seismic velocity changes are modeled from the effective stress output of the hydromechanical model and are initially based on the velocity versus effective stress relationship extracted from core mechanical testing. Based on the principle of superposition of seismic wavefields, seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution and that due to changes in mean effective stress are treated as linearly additive. The modeled results are upscaled using Backus averaging to reconcile scale discrepancies between the modeled and measured datasets to formulate the penalty function. This manuscript presents the forward modeling process and concludes that for the base case, the seismic velocity changes due to mean effective stress dominates over the seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution because of the extensive range of the pressure perturbations. Successful minimization of this penalty function calibrates the coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical numerical model and affirms the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements such as 4D-VSP for geomechanical calibration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

PCalc User's Manual

PCalc is a software tool that computes travel-time predictions, ray path geometry and model queries. This software has a rich set of features, including the ability to use custom 3D velocity models to compute predictions using a variety of geometries. The PCalc software is especially useful for research related to seismic monitoring applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Terrestrial environment (climatic) criteria guidelines for use in aerospace vehicle development

Guidelines on terrestrial environment data specifically applicable for NASA aerospace vehicles and associated equipment development are provided. The general distribution of natural environmental extremes in the conterminous United States that may be needed to specify design criteria in the transportation of space vehicle subsystems and components is considered. Atmospheric attenuation was included, since certain Earth orbital experiment missions are influenced by the Earth's atmosphere. Climatic extremes for worldwide operational needs is also included. Atmospheric chemistry, seismic criteria, and a mathematical model to predict atmospheric dispersion of aerospace engine exhaust cloud rise and growth are discussed. Atmospheric cloud phenomena are considered.

Turner, R. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Mitigation Strategy for the Prediction Inconsistency of Neural Phase Pickers

Neural phase pickers—neural networks designed and trained to pick seismic phase arrivals—have proven to be a powerful tool for developing earthquake catalogs. However, these pickers suffer from prediction inconsistency in which the results they produce change, sometimes substantially, even under a small perturbation to the input waveform. This problem has not been addressed by the developers and users of these pickers. In this study, we show how prediction inconsistency can negatively affect the completeness of earthquake catalogs developed using neural phase pickers. Further, we show that simply using a small step size for the sliding window when processing continuous waveform data and aggregating the results significantly mitigates this problem. We also highlight the importance of training datasets for increasing the consistency and other performance metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Mechanisms and depths of atlantic transform earthquakes

Mechanisms and depths of 40 earthquakes on major transforms along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge are studied in order to identify events that deviate from the transform-parallel strike-slip motion. Long and short period waves and Rayleigh wave spectral amplitudes are used to analyze focal mechanisms, depths, source time functions, and seismic moments of earthquakes. The relationship between centroid depths and transform thermal structures is examined. The data reveal that transform earthquake centroid depths occur above the predicted 400 C isotherms and the oceanic intraplate depths extend to the 750 C isotherm. Slip rates inferred from seismic moment releases are compared to those predicted by plate motions and good correlation is detected. The difference in the centroid depths of transform and interplate seismicity indicates transforms are either weaker or higher temperatures than expected.

Engeln, J. F.↗