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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Seismic Analysis Capability in NASTRAN

Seismic analysis is a technique which pertains to loading described in terms of boundary accelerations. Earthquake shocks to buildings is the type of excitation which usually comes to mind when one hears the word seismic, but this technique also applied to a broad class of acceleration excitations which are applied at the base of a structure such as vibration shaker testing or shocks to machinery foundations. Four different solution paths are available in NASTRAN for seismic analysis. They are: Direct Seismic Frequency Response, Direct Seismic Transient Response, Modal Seismic Frequency Response, and Modal Seismic Transient Response. This capability, at present, is invoked not as separate rigid formats, but as pre-packaged ALTER packets to existing RIGID Formats 8, 9, 11, and 12. These ALTER packets are included with the delivery of the NASTRAN program and are stored on the computer as a library of callable utilities. The user calls one of these utilities and merges it into the Executive Control Section of the data deck to perform any of the four options are invoked by setting parameter values in the bulk data.

Butler, T. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Monte Carlo simulations of the diurnal variation in seismic detection rate of sporadic meteoroid impacts on the moon

The rate of detection of meteoroid impacts on the moon by the lunar seismic network shows a characteristic diurnal variation. Assuming that these meteoroids have a flux and a preimpact orbital distribution similar to that of fireballs observed by terrestrial camera networks, one can compute the expected diurnal variation for a given set of parameters that describe the seismic wave generation and transmission on the moon. An iterative process to match the theoretical variation with the observed one has led us to the following results: (1) the majority of the detected impact events occur within a closer range of the network than was believed earlier. This results in higher meteoroid flux estimates from lunar seismic data that agree with the terrestrially measured flux. (2) For meteoroid masses smaller than 1000 g, seismic amplitude is approximately proportional to the one-fifth power of the impact speed; for larger masses it is approximately proportional to the eight-fifth power, provided that the terrestrial meteor data used for analysis are not biased. (3) Seismic efficiency of meteoroids smaller than 1000 g is significantly less than that of large meteoroids. (4) Using orbits of fireballs that represent meteorites, we predict that the share of meteorites among the detected impacts is approximately 15 percent assuming that seismic efficiency of the high-density meteorites is the same as that of average meteoroids. A greatly increased seismic efficiency for these high-density objects is not likely.

Oberst, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Martian seismicity

The design and ultimate success of network seismology experiments on Mars depends on the present level of Martian seismicity. Volcanic and tectonic landforms observed from imaging experiments show that Mars must have been a seismically active planet in the past and there is no reason to discount the notion that Mars is seismically active today but at a lower level of activity. Models are explored for present day Mars seismicity. Depending on the sensitivity and geometry of a seismic network and the attenuation and scattering properties of the interior, it appears that a reasonable number of Martian seismic events would be detected over the period of a decade. The thermoelastic cooling mechanism as estimated is surely a lower bound, and a more refined estimate would take into account specifically the regional cooling of Tharsis and lead to a higher frequency of seismic events.

Phillips, Roger J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Towards Simulating a Realistic Planetary Seismic Wavefield: The Contribution of the Megaregolith and Low-Velocity Waveguides

Lunar seismograms are distinctly different from their terrestrial counterparts. The Apollo lunar seismometers recorded moonquakes without distinct P- or S-wave arrivals; instead waves arrive as a diffuse coda that decays over several hours making the identification of body waves difficult. The unusual character of the lunar seismic wavefield is generally tied to properties of the megaregolith: it consists of highly fractured and broken crustal rock, the result of extensive bombardment of the Moon. The megaregolith extends several kilometers into the lunar crust, possibly into the mantle in some regions, and is covered by a thin coating of fine-scale dust. These materials possess very low seismic velocities that strongly scatter the seismic wavefield at high frequencies. Directly modeling the effects of the megaregolith to simulate an accurate lunar seismic wavefield is a challenging computational problem, owing to the inherent 3-D nature of the problem and the high frequencies (greater than 1 Hz) required. Here we focus on modeling the long duration code, studying the effects of the low velocities found in the megaregolith. We produce synthetic seismograms using 1-D slowness integration methodologies, GEMINI and reflectivity, and a 3-D Cartesian finite difference code, Wave Propagation Program, to study the effect of thin layers of low velocity on the surface of a planet. These codes allow us generate seismograms with dominant frequencies of approximately 1 Hz. For background lunar seismic structure we explore several models, including the recent model of Weber et al., Science, 2011. We also investigate variations in megaregolithic thickness, velocity, attenuation, and seismogram frequency content. Our results are compared to the Apollo seismic dataset, using both a cross correlation technique and integrated envelope approach to investigate coda decay. We find our new high frequency results strongly support the hypothesis that the long duration of the lunar seismic codes is generated by the presence of the low velocity megaregolith, and that the diffuse arrivals are a combination of scattered energy and multiple reverberations within this layer. The 3-D modeling indicates the extreme surface topography of the Moon adds only a small contribution to scattering effects, though local geology may play a larger role. We also study the effects of the megaregolith on core reflected and converted phases and other body waves. Our analysis indicates detection of core interacting arrivals with a polarization filter technique is robust and lends the possibility of detecting other body waves from the Moon.

Schmerr, Nicholas C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A New Crater Near Insight: Implications for Seismic Impact Detectability on Mars

A new 1.5 m diameter impact crater was discovered on Mars only ~40 km from the InSight lander. Context camera images constrained its formation between 21 February and 6 April 2019; follow-up High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment images resolved the crater. During this time period, three seismic events were identified in InSight data. We derive expected seismic signal characteristics and use them to evaluate each of the seismic events. However, none of them can definitively be associated with this source. Atmospheric perturbations are generally expected to be generated during impacts; however, in this case, no signal could be identified as related to the known impact. Using scaling relationships based on the terrestrial and lunar analogs and numerical modeling, we predict the amplitude, peak frequency, and duration of the seismic signal that would have emanated from this impact. The predicted amplitude falls near the lowest levels of the measured seismometer noise for the predicted frequency. Hence, it is not surprising this impact event was not positively identified in the seismic data. Finding this crater was a lucky event as its formation this close to InSight has a probability of only ~0.2, and the odds of capturing it in before and after images are extremely low. We revisit impact-seismic discriminators in light of real experience with a seismometer on the Martian surface. Using measured noise of the instrument, we revise our previous prediction of seismic impact detections downward, from ~a few to tens, to just ~2 per Earth year, still with an order of magnitude uncertainty.

I. J. Daubar↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic constraints from a Mars impact experiment using InSight and Perseverance

NASA’s InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) mission has operated a sophisticated suite of seismology and geophysics instruments on the surface of Mars since its arrival in 2018. On 18 February 2021, we attempted to detect the seismic and acoustic waves produced by the entry, descent and landing of the Perseverance rover using the sensors onboard the InSight lander. Similar observations have been made on Earth using data from both crewed and uncrewed spacecraft, and on the Moon during the Apollo era, but never before on Mars or another planet. This was the only seismic event to occur on Mars since InSight began operations that had an a priori known and independently constrained timing and location. It therefore had the potential to be used as a calibration for other marsquakes recorded by InSight. Here we report that no signal from Perseverance’s entry, descent and landing is identifiable in the InSight data. Nonetheless, measurements made during the landing window enable us to place constraints on the distance–amplitude relationships used to predict the amplitude of seismic waves produced by planetary impacts and place in situ constraints on Martian impact seismic efficiency (the fraction of the impactor kinetic energy converted into seismic energy).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity Models and Seismic Data

Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity model and synthetic seismic data, produced in collaboration of teams at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory through the National Risk Assessment Partnership. Data is associated with the following publication: Zheng Zhou, Youzuo Lin, Zhongping Zhang, Yue Wu, Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, and George Guthrie, "A Data-Driven CO2 Leakage Detection Using Seismic Data and Spatial-Temporal Densely Connected Convolutional Neural Networks," International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol 90, 2019. The Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity models were produced by Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, William Harbert, and Lianjie Huang at NETL. The following citations are directly related to the creation of the velocity models: Wang, Z. Harbert, W., Dilmore, R., Huang, L. Modeling of time-lapse seismic monitoring using CO2 leakage simulations for a model CO2 storage site with realistic geology: Application in assessment of early leak-detection capabilities. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. V. 76, September 2018, Pages 39-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.06.011 Wang, Z., Dilmore, R., Harbert, W. Inferring CO2 saturation from synthetic surface seismic and downhole monitoring data using machine learning for leakage detection at CO2 sequestration sites. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, V. 100, September 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103115 The velocity models were built based on the Kimberlina 1.2 aquifer impact data which is associated with the following publications: Buscheck, T.A., Mansoor, K., Yang, X., Wainwright, H., and Carroll, S. (2019). Downhole pressure and chemical monitoring for CO2 and brine leak detection in aquifers above a CO2 storage reservoir. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. 91. 102812. 10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102812. Xianjin Yang, Thomas A. Buscheck, Kayyum Mansoor, Zan Wang, Kai Gao, Lianjie Huang, Delphine Appriou, Susan A. Carroll, Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO2 leakage in drinking water aquifers, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Volume 90, 2019, 102803, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102803 The synthetic seismic data was produced by Youzuo Lin and team at LANL, and are associated with the following citations: Jordan, P. D., and J. L. Wagoner. Characterizing Construction of Existing Wells to a CO2 Storage Target: The Kimberlina Site, California. Zheng Zhou, Youzuo Lin, Zhongping Zhang, Yue Wu, Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, and George Guthrie, "A Data-Driven CO2 Leakage Detection Using Seismic Data and Spatial-Temporal Densely Connected Convolutional Neural Networks," International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol 90, 2019.

CO2 Leakage↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seismic monitoring of CO 2 geosequestration using multi-well 4D DAS VSP: Stage 3 of the CO2CRC Otway project

An important part of any CO 2 geosequestration project is to ensure CO 2 containment and conformance in the subsurface. This is generally done by implementing a comprehensive, risk-based Measurement, Monitoring and Verification plan, a key element of which is active time-lapse seismic monitoring. However, high cost and environmental impact of the standard surface seismic monitoring dictate the need for a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative. An opportunity to develop such method emerges with advances in distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology, which turns an optical fibre into a seismic sensor with dense spatial sampling. DAS can be permanently deployed in multiple wells across the geosequestration site providing a robust and non-intrusive network of seismic receivers. This approach was developed and tested in the CO2CRC Otway project, where injection of 15 kt of CO 2 at 1.5 km depth was monitored with a 4D vertical seismic profiling (VSP) using five borehole DAS arrays and mobile vibroseis sources. The 4D DAS VSP in each of the five wells provides broadly consistent images of the CO 2 plume with some differences due to different illumination of the target horizon, lateral variation of velocities, and seismic anisotropy. When the newly injected CO 2 reaches a CO 2 plume created as a result of an earlier injection into the same formation ~600 m updip, 4D DAS VSP shows a change in reflectivity in that area and beyond. Furthermore, this shows a potential of 4D DAS VSP for monitoring gas injection into gas-saturated reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mid-height seismic isolation of equipment in nuclear power plants: Numerical simulations and design recommendations

Seismic isolation can mitigate earthquake demands on safety-class equipment and is being considered for application to some advanced nuclear reactors. For tall, slender vessels that could represent an advanced reactor, a steam generator or a heat exchanger, mid-height seismic isolation has been shown to be beneficial and practical. Here, this paper focuses on numerical modeling of a mid-height isolated tall, slender vessel with two primary goals 1) investigate and quantify the benefits of mid-height seismic isolation for a range of support structure stiffnesses, isolation systems, and seismic inputs, and 2) provide analysis and design recommendations for isolation of safety-class equipment. Results of response-history analysis were in good agreement with experimental measurements and demonstrated that mid-height isolation can substantially reduce seismic demands on tall, slender vessels for a range of support structure stiffnesses, isolation systems, and seismic inputs. Importantly, the reductions in horizontal spectral accelerations in the mid-height isolated vessel from the non-isolated condition were not affected by the stiffness of the support structure. Recommendations are made for analysis and design of isolated equipment and testing of isolators used for equipment protection in nuclear facilities, which are also applicable to other industries.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Review: Induced Seismicity During Geoenergy Development—A Hydromechanical Perspective

The basic triggering mechanism underlying induced seismicity traces back to the mid-1960s that relied on the process of pore-fluid pressure diffusion. The last decade has experienced a renaissance of induced seismicity research and data proliferation. An unprecedent opportunity is presented to us to synthesize the robust growth in knowledge. The objective of this article is to provide a concise review of the triggering mechanisms of induced earthquakes with a focus on hydro-mechanical processes. Four mechanisms are reviewed: pore-fluid pressure diffusion, poroelastic stress, Coulomb static stress transfer, and aseismic slip. For each, an introduction of the concept is presented, followed by case studies. Diving into these mechanisms sheds light on several outstanding questions. For example, why did some earthquakes occur far from fluid injection or after injection stopped? Our review converges on the following conclusions: (a) Pore-fluid pressure diffusion remains a basic mechanism for initiating inducing seismicity in the near-field. (b) Poroelastic stresses and aseismic slip play an important role in inducing seismicity in regions beyond the influence of pore-fluid pressure diffusion. (c) Coulomb static stress transfer from earlier seismicity is shown to be a viable mechanism for increasing stresses on mainshock faults. (d) Multiple mechanisms have operated concurrently or consecutively at most induced seismicity sites. (e) Carbon dioxide injection is succeeding without inducing earthquakes and much can be learned from its success. Future research opportunities exist in deepening the understanding of physical and chemical processes in the nexus of geoenergy development and fluid motion in the Earth’s crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reducing the Overnight Capital Cost of Advanced Reactors Using Equipment-Level Seismic Protective Systems

Consideration of the effects of earthquake shaking on the design and construction of nuclear power plants adds substantially to the overnight capital cost, with anecdotal estimates as high as 35+%, attributed to additional construction materials, need for one-off and sub-optimal designs of equipment due to conflicting design choices, the high cost of seismic qualification of equipment, and regulatory review. Safety-critical equipment in large light water reactors is designed and qualified for seismic demands imposed by the supporting reactor building, optimal mechanical designs are not possible, and designs of a given piece of equipment may vary with height above grade. Similar negative impacts are expected for advanced reactors unless the seismic design paradigm is changed. The overarching goal of this transformational MEITNER project, which involved a multidisciplinary engineering team and designers of three fundamentally different advanced reactors, was to adapt proven seismic isolation and damping technologies to operationalize modular protective systems for safety-class equipment inside advanced reactor buildings. Such seismic protective systems would be tightly integrated into design development for reactor support systems and balance-of-plant construction. The adoption of the technology, which is widely used in non-nuclear sectors, would simplify plant design, enable the use of standardized equipment and buildings, optimized for operational performance, and reduce plant size and weight. The need for site-specific equipment would be eliminated, enabling identical equipment to be used across multiple plants sited across the US and economies of scale, and catalyzing new interest and investment. The equipment-based protective systems would allow siting of advanced reactors in regions of high seismic hazard.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Refining Principal Stress Measurements in Reservoir Underburden in Regions of Induced Seismicity through Seismological Tools, Laboratory Experiments - Final Technical Report

This project developed methodologies to measure the in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface through use of multiple independent, but complementary, seismic methods, laboratory verification, and development of theoretical frameworks. By leveraging existing regional and local datasets we developed, tested, and refined a set of diagnostic tools for determining the in-situ stress state with reduced uncertainty at and below reservoir depths (1.5-6 km). A set of novel tools was produced that are scale independent, such that their utility is equivalent on regional, field scale, and near borehole monitoring of principal stresses in reservoir underburden for carbon storage projects. During a 4-year Department of Energy (DOE) and Southern Company funded project, carried out by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the University of Oklahoma (OU), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the project team developed methodologies to measure the far-field in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface, leveraging induced seismicity data from waste-water disposal projects. These methodologies consisted in the use of well-established and technically advanced seismic processing methods, such as virtual seismometer method-moment tensor (VSM-MT) and shear wave splitting (SWS), that are adept at recovering the stress orientation and certain components of the stress tensor. These methods were applied to robust seismicity catalogs created with matched filter techniques near sites of active fluid disposal—a proxy for carbon storage sites where such datasets are more limited. Estimates of the stress orientation made with seismic processing tools were considered along with laboratory acoustic emission experiments conducted on rock samples from the region of interest. Stress orientations in the studied region do not vary significantly across distances of ~100 km, nor are they found to rotate through time as a consequence of local wastewater disposal, as previously speculated. Finally, the project team investigated the trade-offs among the different seismic methods and evaluated the range of uncertainty that is generated with these methodologies, which led to a practical use and refinement of the VSM-MT technique when it is applied to field datasets. Understanding the trade-offs between these different methods highlighted the potential benefits of improved quantification of uncertainties on stress field estimations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Porewater Geochemical Assessment of Seismic Indications for Gas Hydrate Presence and Absence: Mahia Slope, East of New Zealand’s North Island

We compare sediment vertical methane flux off the Mahia Peninsula, on the Hikurangi Margin, east of New Zealand’s North Island, with a combination of geochemical, multichannel seismic and sub-bottom profiler data. Stable carbon isotope data provided an overview of methane contributions to shallow sediment carbon pools. Methane varied considerably in concentration and vertical flux across stations in close proximities. At two Mahia transects, methane profiles correlated well with integrated seismic and TOPAS data for predicting vertical methane migration rates from deep to shallow sediment. However, at our “control site”, where no seismic blanking or indications of vertical gas migration were observed, geochemical data were similar to the two Mahia transect lines. This apparent mismatch between seismic and geochemistry data suggests a potential to underestimate gas hydrate volumes based on standard seismic data interpretations. To accurately assess global gas hydrate deposits, multiple approaches for initial assessment, e.g., seismic data interpretation, heatflow profiling and controlled-source electromagnetics, should be compared to geochemical sediment and porewater profiles. A more thorough data matrix will provide better accuracy in gas hydrate volume for modeling climate change and potential available energy content.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seismic Characterization of the Blue Mountain Geothermal Field

Subsurface characterization is crucial for geothermal energy exploration and production. Yet hydrothermal reservoirs usually reside in highly fractured and faulted zones where accurate characterization is very challenging because of low signal-to-noise ratios of land seismic data and lack of coherent reflection signals. We perform an active-source seismic characterization for the Blue Mountain geothermal field in Nevada using active seismic data to reveal the elastic medium property complexity and fault distribution at this field. We first employ an unsupervised machine learning method to attenuate groundroll and near-surface guided-wave noise and enhance coherent reflection and scattering signals from noisy seismic data. We then build a smooth initial P-wave velocity model based on an existing magnetotellurics survey result, and use 3D first-arrival traveltime tomography to refine the initial velocity model. We then derive a set of elastic wave velocities and anisotropic parameters using elastic full-waveform inversion, and obtain PP and PS images using elastic reverse-time migration. We identify major faults by analyzing the variations of seismic velocities and anisotropy parameters, and reveal mid- to small-scale faults by applying a supervised machine learning method to the seismic migration images. Our characterization reveals complex velocity heterogeneities and anisotropies, as well as faults, with a high spatial resolution. These results can provide valuable information for optimal placement of future injection and production wells to increase geothermal energy production at the Blue Mountain geothermal power plant.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic savanna: machine learning for classifying wildlife and behaviours using ground‐based vibration field recordings

Abstract We develop a machine learning approach to detect and discriminate elephants from other species, and to recognise important behaviours such as running and rumbling, based only on seismic data generated by the animals. We demonstrate our approach using data acquired in the Kenyan savanna, consisting of 8000 h seismic recordings and 250 k camera trap pictures. Our classifiers, different convolutional neural networks trained on seismograms and spectrograms, achieved 80%–90% balanced accuracy in detecting elephants up to 100 m away, and over 90% balanced accuracy in recognising running and rumbling behaviours from the seismic data. We release the dataset used in this study: SeisSavanna represents a unique collection of seismic signals with the associated wildlife species and behaviour. Our results suggest that seismic data offer substantial benefits for monitoring wildlife, and we propose to further develop our methods using dense arrays that could result in a seismic shift for wildlife monitoring.

Szenicer, Alexandre↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Seismic Recordings of High-Frequency Guided Infrasound on Mars

NASA's Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) mission records several high-frequency (>0.5 Hz) dispersive seismic signals on Mars. These signals are due to the acoustic-to-seismic coupling of infrasound generated by the entry and impact of meteorites. This dispersion property is due to infrasound propagating in a structured atmosphere, and we refer to this dispersive infrasound as guided infrasound. We propose to model the propagation of guided infrasound and the seismic coupling to the ground analytically; we use a 1D layered atmosphere on a three-layer solid subsurface medium. The synthetic ground movements fit the observed dispersive seismic signals well and the fitting indicates that the regolith beneath InSight is about 40-m in thickness. We also examine and validate the previously-published subsurface models derived from InSight ambient seismic vibration data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing the evolution of fault properties during the seismic cycle with deep learning

We use seismic waves that pass through the hypocentral region of the 2016 M6.5 Norcia earthquake together with Deep Learning (DL) to distinguish between foreshocks, aftershocks and time-to-failure (TTF). Binary and N-class models defined by TTF correctly identify seismograms in test with > 90% accuracy. We use raw seismic records as input to a 7 layer CNN model to perform the classification. Here we show that DL models successfully distinguish seismic waves pre/post mainshock in accord with lab and theoretical expectations of progressive changes in crack density prior to abrupt change at failure and gradual postseismic recovery. Performance is lower for band-pass filtered seismograms (below 10 Hz) suggesting that DL models learn from the evolution of subtle changes in elastic wave attenuation. Tests to verify that our results indeed provide a proxy for fault properties included DL models trained with the wrong mainshock time and those using seismic waves far from the Norcia mainshock; both show degraded performance. Our results demonstrate that DL models have the potential to track the evolution of fault zone properties during the seismic cycle. If this result is generalizable it could improve earthquake early warning and seismic hazard analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗