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Simulation and Modeling Concepts for Secure Airspace Operations

This paper examines cyber security vulnerabilities of Urban Air Mobility operations. With the expected advent of new entrants including Unmanned Aerial Systems, Commercial Launch Vehicles and Urban Air Mobility aircraft, the future United States National Airspace System will have to evolve to include their operations along with the current commercial, general aviation and military operations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration are working together to provide a vision for aviation operations in the future—2045 and beyond. Their National Airspace System Horizons initiative seeks to provide stakeholders a list of operational scenarios and technologies, concepts and strategies needed for supporting that vision. They have identified cybersecurity as one of the seven strategic interest areas for realizing this vision. Consequently, NASA is studying cyber resiliency for secure airspace operations. While there are many pathways to attack a cyber physical system such as Urban Air Mobility, their effect is expressed in modification or corruption of data/information used for controlling vehicles and making operational decisions. The paper describes cybersecurity technologies of Encryption, Blockchain, Virtual Information Fabric Infrastructure, Trusted Platform Module and Anomaly Detection for protecting the data, and the cyber resiliency of the current and future air traffic management system.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Case for Deploying Complex Systems Utilizing Commodity Components

When the International Space Station (ISS) finally reached an operational state, many of the Payload Operations and Integration Facility (POIF) hardware components were reaching end of life, COTS product costs were soaring, and the ISS budget was becoming severely constrained. However, most requirement development was complete. In addition, the ISS program is a fully functioning program with at least fifteen years of operational life remaining. Therefore it is critical that any upgrades, refurbishments, or enhancements be accomplished in realtime with minimal disruptions to service. For these and other reasons, it was necessary to ensure the viability of the POIF. Due to the to the breadth of capability of the POIF (a NASA ground station), it is believed that the lessons to be learned by other complex systems are applicable and any solutions garnered by the POIF are applicable to other complex systems as well. With that in mind, a number of new approaches have been investigated to increase the portability of the POIF and reduce the cost of refurbishment, operations, and maintenance. These new approaches were directed at the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO); not only the refurbishment but also current operational difficulties, licensing, and anticipation of the next refurbishment. Our basic premise is that technology had evolved dramatically since the concept of the POIF ground system and we should leverage our experience on this new technological landscape. Fortunately, Moore's law and market forces have changed the landscape considerably. These changes are manifest in five (5) ways that are particularly relevant to POIF: 1. Complex Instruction Set Computing (CISC) processors have advanced to unprecedented levels of compute capacity with a dramatic cost break, 2. Linux has become a major operating system supported by most vendors on a broad range of platforms, 3. Windows(TradeMark) based desktops are pervasive in the office environment, 4. Stable and affordable WindowsTM development environments and tools are available and offer a rich set of capabilities, 5. The WindowsTM 2000 provides a stable client platform, Therefore, five studies were proposed, developed, and are in the current process of deployment which dramatically reduces the cost of operations, maintenance, refurbishment, and deployment of a ground system. Restating and refining the basic premise stated earlier, it is possible to enhance operations through the replacement of hardware and software components with commodity based items wherever applicable. This will dramatically reduce the overall lifecycle cost of the project. The first study leveraged the POIF S secure, three-tier, web architecture to replace the client workstations with lower cost PC platforms. A second study initiated a review of COTS products to examine the level of added value of each product. This study included replacement of some COTS products with custom code, deletions, substitutions, and consolidation of COTS products. Studies three and four reviewed the server architectures of the data distribution systems and Enhanced HOSC System (EHS) command and telemetry system to propose migration to new platforms, both software and hardware. The final study reviewed current IP communication technologies, developed an operational model for flight operations, and demonstrated that voice over IP was practical and could be integrated into operations.

Bryant, Barry S.↗

How Can Future Climate Change Affect the Corn Production System in Nebraska, USA?

The increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have affected both crop yields and water requirements challenging agricultural systems in sustaining high crop yields and ensuring water and food security. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the corn production under irrigated and rainfed cropping systems in Nebraska considering four climate zones until 2100 as a case study for the US Corn Belt. Additionally, suggests ways to reduce the impact of climate change on corn yield and water resources. Five global circulation model datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) interconnected to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were selected. Three future periods: near (2020–2039), mid (2040–2069), and far future (2070–2100) under SSP226, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios were used to predict the climate changes, crop cycle length, crop yield, and crop water requirement. Additionally, we input annual CO2 concentration scenarios for each SSP scenario to model changes from 2015 to 2100 using the CERES-Maize model. Temperatures are forecasted to rise, precipitation to decline, and crop cycle length to decrease, particularly for SSP370 (up to 49% yield decrease) and SSP585 (up to 67% yield decrease) by 2070–2100. Yields are expected to decline across all scenarios and periods for irrigated and rainfed fields due to the reduction in crop cycle length. Crop water demand is projected to increase, with rainfed systems facing heightened impact due to reduced precipitation. Addressing climate change in Nebraska requires actions like developing new corn varieties to longer the crop season, transitioning to efficient irrigation systems, improving irrigation management for water and food security, and reducing the risk of conflicts over its use. These results open possibilities for discussion about the actions that can be taken to cope with climate change and guarantee water and food security in the US Corn Belt.

CMIP6↗

Defending the Homeland: Growing Foreign Challenges to the U.S. Missile Defense Posture

The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for Policy requested that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory conduct a Congressionally directed study on homeland missile defense, pursuant to Section 1692 of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. In accordance with the statutory language, this study considers whether the security benefits obtained by deployment of homeland missile defenses of the United States are undermined or counterbalanced by adverse reactions of potential adversaries, and considers the effectiveness of homeland missile defense efforts of the United States to deter the development of ballistic missiles. Almost a half-century has elapsed since the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and almost two decades since the former withdrew. Since withdrawing, the United States has sought to develop and deploy a layered missile defense system to defend against regional threats to U.S. and allied interests abroad and to counter limited threats to the U.S. homeland. As such, missile defense supports key national defense policy objectives. Protecting the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, allies, and partners. Deterring attacks against the United States, its allies, and partners. Assuring allies an strengthening U.S. diplomatic activities in peacetime and crisis. We offer five key findings: 1. The primary benefit of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is the protection it provides the U.S. homeland against a limited but evolving rogue-state missile threat. While this system has never been tested in combat, it appears thus far to have effectively paced North Korea’s development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In the absence of such a defensive capability, the United States would likely have been more heavily exposed to North Korean actions, would have operated at a much higher-risk posture, and would have had less negotiating room with which to navigate coercive tactics and crises. Its allies would have been more concerned about U.S. willingness in time of crisis and war to run the risks of protecting them. The GMD system also serves as a hedge against Iranian breakout. 2. Potential adversaries continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles despite deployment of a U.S. homeland missile defense system. This includes both rogue states and major power rivals whose long-range missile programs predated the deployment of U.S. missile defenses. While North Korea has continued its long-range missile developments and achieved an intercontinental capability, Iran has not yet reached this threshold. The broader proliferation of long-range missiles anticipated in the late 1990s has not materialized. 3. While Russia has used the existence of a U.S. homeland missile defense system as a justification for its substantial and continuing weapon modernization program, neither Russian force modernization nor the limited U.S. homeland missile defense system has altered the strategic balance. Russia has long considered U.S. missile defenses—both theater and homeland—as directed against its strategic forces and as a capability that could rapidly advance, thereby eroding Russian confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Russia’s political and military actions appear excessive and negatively impact areas such as arms control, but they do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 4. China’s expansion and diversification of nuclear and missile forces has been influenced by its concerns about U.S. homeland missile defense, but those concerns are only one of many factors in China’s force planning. Although China’s actions to preserve and expand its assured retaliation prospects have not fundamentally altered the strategic balance, its buildup and lack of transparency about its force modernization goals are troubling. Taken together, the aggregate pattern of China’s modernization activities over the past two decades strongly suggests a concerted effort to develop a modern military force commensurate with its intended geopolitical status. Whatever China’s legacy concerns over the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces, its ability to overwhelm the GMD system appears intact today and will be further strengthened in the years ahead as it continues its long-term modernization program. China’s political and military actions negatively affect U.S. security interests but do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 5. The basic finding that benefits have not so far been undermined by adverse reactions is a function of circumstances that are increasingly in flux. The existing GMD-centered system is under increasing pressure from the pace and scope of North Korean missile deployments. The proposed “layered” system seeks to mitigate this impending capability gap in the near term and to complement future capabilities, such as the Next Generation Interceptor, when they come online. Given the pace of U.S. missile defense developments since 2000, it is possible that adversary advances in capability will outpace the U.S. system’s ability to adapt. Additionally, because this layered system is in principle more readily scaled, it will almost certainly be viewed skeptically by China and Russia. In a context of growing great-power security competition, the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider undertaking a broader net assessment of the U.S., Russian, and Chinese force balance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Maximum Forces Applied by Pilots to Wheel-type Controls

Measurements were made of the maximum push, pull, and tangential forces that could be applied to airplane wheel-type controls for a wide range of fore-and-aft positions of the wheel. The measurements were conducted with several sizes of wheels and several heights of the center of the wheel above the seat. Various one and two-hand grips with pilots both secure and free were studied for each of the two pilots used in the investigation.

Mcavoy, William H↗

Human Heat Stress Could Offset Potential Economic Benefits of CO 2 Fertilization in Crop Production Under a High-Emissions Scenario

Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO 2 fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO 2 fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.

climate change↗

New Experiments for Detecting Emissions from Fission

Ensuring that nuclear science and technology is used solely for peaceful purposes is one of the most pressing challenges facing our society. The Consortium for Monitoring, Technology, and Verification (MTV) mission is to help meet this challenge by providing advanced technology and trained talent for careers in nuclear security and nonproliferation. The study of nuclear fission is one area of interest in the MTV. We are performing new experiments for the characterization of neutron and gamma ray emissions from fission fragments. These emissions are signatures for the detection and characterization of nuclear materials. To perform these experiments, we have developed Fission Sphere (FS-3), an array of forty organic stilbene detectors operated in time-coincidence. The FS-3 is used to measure the prompt emissions of neutrons and gamma rays from Cf-252 spontaneous fission. These new data will be used to validate physics-based prediction codes, including CGMF and FREYA, and will be useful in future ENDF and ENSDF evaluations. This paper will present results from the first experiments using FS-3 and a Cf-252 spontaneous fission source. It will compare the experimental results with predictions from theory and Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we will describe the correlations among energy, multiplicity, and angles of emitted particles. We will also discuss the application of these correlations in multiplicity counting techniques, which are widely used in nuclear safeguards.

Pozzi, S. A.↗

ORNL Peer Review Summary and Recommendations for: Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors Study

The purpose of this document is to provide a summary of the peer review conducted for the "Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors" study prepared by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) International Nuclear Security (INS) program team requested that ORNL perform a peer review of the study report prior to publication as a final peer check before distributing the report to a broader audience.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Desktop Audits: Overview, Case Studies, Guidance

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 requires that federal agencies audit 25% of their 3.1 billion square feet of covered facilities each year. Several newer, advanced options such as monitoring-based commissioning, fault detection and diagnostics, and energy management systems can help support data collection and analysis to be used for EISA compliance. The Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP’s) Audit Decision Tree, Audit Definitions, and FEMP Guidance can be used by Agencies to determine the best approaches to evaluate their facilities. FEMP continues to develop additional resources to support agencies in meeting EISA compliance. This presentation gives an overview of desktop audits, including case studies and guidance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Call to Arms Control: Synergies between Nonproliferation Applications of Neutrino Detectors and Large-Scale Fundamental Neutrino Physics Experiments (A Snowmass White Paper)

The High Energy Physics community can benefit from a natural synergy in research activities into next-generation large-scale water and scintillator neutrino detectors, now being studied for remote reactor monitoring, discovery and exclusion applications in cooperative nonproliferation contexts. Since approximately 2010, US nonproliferation researchers, supported by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), have been studying a range of possible applications of relatively large (100 ton) to very large (hundreds of kiloton) water and scintillator neutrino detectors. In parallel, the fundamental physics community has been developing detectors at similar scales and with similar design features for a range of high-priority physics topics, primarily in fundamental neutrino physics. These topics include neutrino oscillation studies at beams and reactors, solar, and geological neutrino measurements, supernova studies, and others. Examples of ongoing synergistic work at U.S. national laboratories and universities include prototype gadolinium-doped water and water-based and opaque scintillator test-beds and demonstrators, extensive testing and industry partnerships related to large area fast position-sensitive photomultiplier tubes, and the development of concepts for a possible underground kiloton-scale water-based detector for reactor monitoring and technology demonstrations. Some opportunities for engagement between the two communities include bi-annual Applied Antineutrino Physics conferences, collaboration with U.S. National Laboratories engaging in this research, and occasional NNSA funding opportunities supporting a blend of nonproliferation and basic science R&D, directed at the U.S. academic community.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Secure Firmware Update and Device Authentication for Smart Inverters using Blockchain and Physically Uncloable Function (PUF)-Embedded Security Module

Cybersecurity of inverters has been significantly important as inverters become smarter in cyber-physical environments. However, firmware security of smart inverters against firmware attacks from various attack vectors has been less studied. Furthermore, this paper proposes a secure firmware update and device authentication method using a blockchain-based public key infrastructure (PKI) management system and a physically unclonable function (PUF)-embedded security module in a smart inverter. The proposed method is validated by experiments.

blockchain↗

Security assessment and impact analysis of cyberattacks in integrated T&D power systems

In this paper, we examine the impact of cyberattacks in an integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) power grid model with distributed energy resource (DER) integration. We adopt the OCTAVE Allegro methodology to identify critical system assets, enumerate potential threats, analyze and prioritize risks for threat scenarios. Based on the analysis, attack strategies and exploitation scenarios are identified which could lead to system compromise. Specifically, we investigate the impact of data integrity attacks in inverted-based solar PV controllers, control signal blocking attacks in protective switches and breakers, and coordinated monitoring and switching time-delay attacks. Index Terms—Cyberattacks, security assessment, impact analysis, case studies, integrated power systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Study on the effect of ascorbic acid on the biosynthesis of pigment and citrinin in red yeast rice based on comparative transcriptomics

Pigment is one of the most important metabolites in red yeast rice. However, citrinin may accumulate and cause quality security issues. In the present study, the effect of ascorbic acid (EAA) on the pigment and citrinin was studied, and the metabolic mechanism was discussed using comparative transcriptomics. The introduction of EAA increased the pigment by 58.2% and decreased citrinin by 65.4%. The acid protease activity, DPPH scavenging rate, and total reducing ability also increased by 18.7, 9.0, and 26.7%, respectively. Additionally, a total of 791 differentially expressed genes were identified, and 79 metabolic pathways were annotated, among which carbon metabolism, amino acid metabolism, and fatty acid metabolism were closely related to the biosynthesis of pigment and citrinin. Ethanol dehydrogenase ( M pigC ), oxidoreductase ( M pigE ), reductase ( M pigH ), and monooxygenase ( M pigN ) may be related to the increase of pigment. ctnC and pksCT contributed to the decline of citrinin.

Jiang, Zhilin↗

Revisiting Current Paradigms: Subject Matter Expert Views on High Consequence Facility Security Assessments

Security assessments support decision-makers' ability to evaluate current capabilities of high consequence facilities (HCF) to respond to possible attacks. However, increasing complexity of today's operational environment requires a critical review of traditional approaches to ensure that implemented assessments are providing relevant and timely insights into security of HCFs. Using interviews and focus groups with diverse subject matter experts (SMEs), this study evaluated the current state of security assessments and identified opportunities to achieve a more "ideal" state. The SME-based data underscored the value of a systems approach for understanding the impacts of changing operational designs and contexts (as well as cultural influences) on security to address methodological shortcomings of traditional assessment processes. These findings can be used to inform the development of new approaches to HCF security assessments that are able to more accurately reflect changing operational environments and effectively mitigate concerns arising from new adversary capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nu Tools: Exploring Practical Roles for Neutrinos in Nuclear Energy and Security

For decades, physicists have used neutrinos from nuclear reactors to advance basic science. These pursuits have inspired many ideas for application of neutrino detectors in nuclear energy and security. While developments in neutrino detectors are now making some of these ideas technically feasible, their value in the context of real needs and constraints has been unclear. This report seeks to help focus the picture of where neutrino technology may find practical roles in nuclear energy and security. This report is the final product of the Nu Tools study, commissioned in 2019 by the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D). The study was conducted over two years by a group of neutrino physicists and nuclear engineers. A central theme of the study and this report is that useful application of neutrinos will depend not only on advancing physics and technology but also on understanding the needs and constraints of potential end-users. The Study Approach emphasized broad end-user engagement. The major effort, undertaken from May to December 2020, was a series of engagements with the wider nuclear energy and security communities. Interviews with 41 experts revealed points of common understanding, which this report captures in three Cross-Cutting Findings, a Framework for Evaluating Utility, and seven Use Case Findings. The report concludes with two Recommendations. The findings and recommendations are summarized below. The respective ordering within each category does not represent a prioritization or implied value judgement.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Supporting U.S. National Security Through Cybersecurity Partnerships

At NLR, we're studying energy evolutions and threats to understand the challenges they pose and uncover ways to leverage grid advancements to achieve more secure, defensible, and reliable systems. Our integrated research approach bridges the gap between cyber threats and real-world consequences to deliver actionable solutions that reduce vulnerabilities and help strengthen U.S. national security.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Novel Wavefunction Approaches for Studying Actinides and Other Heavy Elements (Final Report (2012-2020))

The theoretical characterization of actinide molecules is a crucial complement to their experimental study; actinides are vital to issues of national security and energy, but they are expensive and hazardous to study experimentally. However, because actinides contain a large number of electrons and are often strongly correlated, their theoretical description is difficult. We have had success studying actinide chemistry and physics using density functional theoretical approaches over the past several years, but we have found that such methods are incapable of treating strong correlations adequately. We thus shifted our research focus to the development of tractable wavefunction methods for strong correlations of actinides. Our early wavefunction-based approaches focused on extending symmetry-adapted, single-reference coupled cluster for treating strong correlations with feasible computational cost. While we have had some success along these lines, we have recently developed spin-projected unrestricted coupled cluster, which is essentially a black-box multi-reference coupled cluster theory that is superior to unrestricted coupled cluster for small- to medium-sized systems across practically all physical correlation strengths, yet preserves good quantum numbers. For actinides, however, where spin-orbit coupling is often nonnegligible, spin is no longer a fundamental symmetry. We thus propose to develop time reversal and point group projected coupled cluster, which will preserve the fundamental symmetries for actinides. Time reversal projection is achieved via the product of half-spin projection, or spin flip, and complex conjugation projection. Along with point group, these are discrete symmetries, i.e. non-continuous quantum numbers, which, in addition to being the correct symmetries for actinides, can be implemented in lower computational cost than full spin projection. We propose the development of these theories within a synergistic collaboration to use the new methods to elucidate difficult actinide chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NuTools: Exploring Practical Roles for Neutrinos in Nuclear Energy and Security

For decades, physicists have used neutrinos from nuclear reactors to advance basic science. These pursuits have inspired many ideas for application of neutrino detectors in nuclear energy and security. While developments in neutrino detectors are now making some of these ideas technically feasible, their value in the context of real needs and constraints has been unclear. This report seeks to help focus the picture of where neutrino technology may find practical roles in nuclear energy and security. This report is the final product of the Nu Tools study, commissioned in 2019 by the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R\&D). The study was conducted over two years by a group of neutrino physicists and nuclear engineers. A central theme of the study and this report is that useful application of neutrinos will depend not only on advancing physics and technology but also on understanding the needs and constraints of potential end-users.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗