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DOE OSTI2015

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative Risk Analysis of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants using IRADIC Technology

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. In FY-2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems (IRADIC technology) was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the High Safety Significant Safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) develop an advanced risk assessment technology to support transition from analog to DI&C technologies for nuclear industry, (3) assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital HSSSR DI&C systems, (4) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the IRADIC technology is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify responding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level, (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks; thus, to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). In this report, an approach for performing software CCF analysis, given limited data, is developed and demonstrated using a case study of a highly redundant digital reactor trip system. Consequence analysis is also performed based on different accident scenarios. Results indicate that plant modernization including the improvement of HSSSR DI&C systems will make great benefits to plant safety by providing more safety margins to accident management. In addition, a novel approach is proposed in this report for the quantification of software hazards when sufficient operational and testing data available. The method incorporates software development quality as well as strong analysis techniques to identify and link software defects to potential failure modes. The approach includes both semantic and test-based analysis to detect failures that can exist in different stages of the software development life cycle. This method is applied to an advanced human system interface relevant to reactor trip safety developed from the APR 1400 design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Advancement and Application

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2024 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Digital Instrumentation and Control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. The goal of the RISA Pathway is to optimize safety margins and minimize uncertainties to achieve economic efficiencies while maintaining high levels of safety. This is accomplished by providing scientific basis to better represent safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and by developing new technologies that reduce operating costs. The research efforts for FY 2024 encompass methodology refinement and exploration. The efforts include: (1) The implementation of a natural language processing tool to expedite key aspects of the reliability analysis methods developed by INL; (2) advances to support intersystem CCF analysis by providing guidance for and identification of coupling mechanisms that may contribute to CCF; (3) the investigation of how generative artificial intelligence tools can aid in hazard analysis and diversity and defense in depth (i.e., D3) assessments; (4) Industry collaboration, allowing the demonstration of and INL's risk assessment tools to support risk assessment of DI&C systems at early and late stages of development; (4) a roadmap for the development of a software for each of INL's risk assessment tools; (5) The development of a theory and methodology manual for a risk quantification methodology; (6) the development of a reliability analysis for machine learning (ML)-integrated control systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulic architecture explains species moisture dependency but not mortality rates across a tropical rainfall gradient

Aim Intensified droughts are affecting tropical forests across the globe. However, the underlying mechanisms of tree drought response and mortality are poorly understood. Hydraulic traits and especially hydraulic safety margins (HSMs), i.e. the extent to which plants buffer themselves from thresholds of water stress, provide insights into species-specific drought vulnerability. Methods We investigated hydraulic traits during an intense drought triggered by the 2015-2016 El Niño on 27 canopy trees across three tropical forest sites with differing precipitation. We capitalized on the drought event as a time when plant water status might approach or exceed thresholds of water stress. We investigated the degree to which these traits varied across the rainfall gradient, as well as relationships amongst hydraulic traits and species-specific optimal moisture and mortality rates. Results There were no differences among sites for any measured trait. There was strong coordination among traits, with a network analysis revealing two major groups of coordinated traits. In one group there were water potentials, turgor loss point, sapwood capacitance and density, HSMs, and mortality rate. In the second group there was leaf mass per area, leaf dry matter content, hydraulic architecture (leaf area to sapwood area ratio), and species-specific optimal moisture. Conclusion These results demonstrated that while species with greater safety from turgor loss had lower mortality rates, hydraulic architecture was the only trait that explained species’ moisture dependency. Species with a greater leaf area to sapwood area ratio were associated with drier sites and reduced their transpirational demand during the dry season via deciduousness.

Hydraulic Saftey Margins, drought, tropical forest↗
DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

RISMC Advanced Safety Analysis Project Plan – FY 2015 - FY 2019

In this report, a project plan is developed, focused on industry applications, using Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) tools and methods applied to realistic, relevant, and current interest issues to the operating nuclear fleet. RISMC focuses on modernization of nuclear power safety analysis (tools, methods and data); implementing state-of-the-art modeling techniques (which include, for example, enabling incorporation of more detailed physics as they become available); taking advantage of modern computing hardware; and combining probabilistic and mechanistic analyses to enable a risk informed safety analysis process. The modernized tools will maintain the current high level of safety in our nuclear power plant fleet, while providing an improved understanding of safety margins and the critical parameters that affect them. Thus, the set of tools will provide information to inform decisions on plant modifications, refurbishments, and surveillance programs, while improving economics. This set of tools will also benefit the design of new reactors, enhancing safety per unit cost of a nuclear plant. The proposed plan will focus on application of the RISMC toolkit, in particular, solving realistic problems of important current issues to the nuclear industry, in collaboration with plant owners and operators to demonstrate the usefulness of these tools in decision making.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Monte Carlo study for designing a dedicated “D”-shaped collimator used in the external beam radiotherapy of retinoblastoma patients

Purpose: Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular malignancy in the early childhood. Patients treated with external beam radiotherapy respond very well to the treatment. However, owing to the genotype of children suffering hereditary retinoblastoma, the risk of secondary radio-induced malignancies is high. The University Hospital of Essen has successfully treated these patients on a daily basis during nearly 30 years using a dedicated “D”-shaped collimator. The use of this collimator that delivers a highly conformed small radiation field, gives very good results in the control of the primary tumor as well as in preserving visual function, while it avoids the devastating side effects of deformation of midface bones. The purpose of the present paper is to propose a modified version of the “D”-shaped collimator that reduces even further the irradiation field with the scope to reduce as well the risk of radio-induced secondary malignancies. Concurrently, the new dedicated “D”-shaped collimator must be easier to build and at the same time produces dose distributions that only differ on the field size with respect to the dose distributions obtained by the current collimator in use. The scope of the former requirement is to facilitate the employment of the authors' irradiation technique both at the authors' and at other hospitals. The fulfillment of the latter allows the authors to continue using the clinical experience gained in more than 30 years. Methods: The Monte Carlo codePENELOPE was used to study the effect that the different structural elements of the dedicated “D”-shaped collimator have on the absorbed dose distribution. To perform this study, the radiation transport through a Varian Clinac 2100 C/D operating at 6 MV was simulated in order to tally phase-space files which were then used as radiation sources to simulate the considered collimators and the subsequent dose distributions. With the knowledge gained in that study, a new, simpler, “D”-shaped collimator is proposed. Results: The proposed collimator delivers a dose distribution which is 2.4 cm wide along the inferior-superior direction of the eyeball. This width is 0.3 cm narrower than that of the dose distribution obtained with the collimator currently in clinical use. The other relevant characteristics of the dose distribution obtained with the new collimator, namely, depth doses at clinically relevant positions, penumbrae width, and shape of the lateral profiles, are statistically compatible with the results obtained for the collimator currently in use. Conclusions: The smaller field size delivered by the proposed collimator still fully covers the planning target volume with at least 95% of the maximum dose at a depth of 2 cm and provides a safety margin of 0.2 cm, so ensuring an adequate treatment while reducing the irradiated volume.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Development and evaluation of a prototype tracking system using the treatment couch

Purpose: Tumor motion increases safety margins around the clinical target volume and leads to an increased dose to the surrounding healthy tissue. The authors have developed and evaluated a one-dimensional treatment couch tracking system to counter steer respiratory tumor motion. Three different motion detection sensors with different lag times were evaluated. Methods: The couch tracking system consists of a motion detection sensor, which can be the topometrical system Topos (Cyber Technologies, Germany), the respiratory gating system RPM (Varian Medical Systems) or a laser triangulation system (Micro Epsilon), and the Protura treatment couch (Civco Medical Systems). The control of the treatment couch was implemented in the block diagram environment Simulink (MathWorks). To achieve real time performance, the Simulink models were executed on a real time engine, provided by Real-Time Windows Target (MathWorks). A proportional-integral control system was implemented. The lag time of the couch tracking system using the three different motion detection sensors was measured. The geometrical accuracy of the system was evaluated by measuring the mean absolute deviation from the reference (static position) during motion tracking. This deviation was compared to the mean absolute deviation without tracking and a reduction factor was defined. A hexapod system was moving according to seven respiration patterns previously acquired with the RPM system as well as according to a sin{sup 6} function with two different frequencies (0.33 and 0.17 Hz) and the treatment table compensated the motion. Results: A prototype system for treatment couch tracking of respiratory motion was developed. The laser based tracking system with a small lag time of 57 ms reduced the residual motion by a factor of 11.9 ± 5.5 (mean value ± standard deviation). An increase in delay time from 57 to 130 ms (RPM based system) resulted in a reduction by a factor of 4.7 ± 2.6. The Topos based tracking system with the largest lag time of 300 ms achieved a mean reduction by a factor of 3.4 ± 2.3. The increase in the penumbra of a profile (1 × 1 cm{sup 2}) for a motion of 6 mm was 1.4 mm. With tracking applied there was no increase in the penumbra. Conclusions: Couch tracking with the Protura treatment couch is achievable. To reliably track all possible respiration patterns without prediction filters a short lag time below 100 ms is needed. More scientific work is necessary to extend our prototype to tracking of internal motion.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.

human reliability analysis↗
DOE OSTI2016

Potential Impact of Cladding Wettability on LWR Transient Progression

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is working closely with the nuclear industry to develop fuel and cladding candidates with potentially enhanced accident tolerance. This type of fuel is also known as accident tolerant fuel (ATF). Two promising cladding material candidates with potentially enhanced accident tolerance are silicon carbide (SiC) and an iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy. The FeCrAl alloy features significantly enhanced oxidation resistance versus the Zr-based alloys currently used in state-of-the-art light water reactors (LWRs). Thermal-fluid characteristics are a vital element of a holistic engineering evaluation of ATF concepts. One characteristic related to boiling heat transfer is the critical heat flux (CHF). At CHF, the efficacy of heat transfer rapidly degrades and components can heat up rapidly. CHF is the heat flux at which the departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) occurs in PWRs. DNB is directly relevant to the departure from nuclear boiling ratio (DNBR), which is the ratio between the critical heat flux and the actual heat flux. Surface wettability is an important factor that influences CHF. CHF plays a significant role in determining safety margins during normal operation and also in the progression of potential transient or accident scenarios. Significant changes in CHF properties and boiling heat transfer characteristics will impact the progression of transient and accident events and reactor safety characteristics. Additionally, the behavior of the candidate cladding materials post-CHF impacts reactor safety. A brief description of the relationship between cladding material properties and CHF is provided, followed by an analysis of two hypothetical transient scenarios: a super-prompt reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) and an anticipated transient without scram with instability (ATWS-I). The analysis illustrates the potential impact of cladding material properties on safety margins via direct alteration of calculated CHF values. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extension of SCALE/Sampler’s sensitivity analysis

Nuclear data are a major source of uncertainties in reactor physics calculations. The propagation of nuclear data uncertainties to important system responses is instrumental when determining appropriate safety margins in reactor safety analyses. It is also important to understand the major contributors to the observed uncertainties to make recommendations for further measurements and evaluations and aid in the understanding of the studied system. The SCALE code system allows for nuclear data uncertainty analysis based on the random sampling approach as implemented in SCALE’s Sampler sequence. Sampler was recently extended by a sensitivity analysis in terms of the calculation of two correlation-based sensitivity indices. This analysis allows for the identification of the top contributing nuclear reactions to any analyzed output uncertainty. This paper presents the sensitivity indices, along with their interpretation and limitations. It demonstrates the application in an eigenvalue and decay heat analysis for a boiling water reactor fuel assembly.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-H-CAMPUS-JeP1-02: Fully Automatic Verification of Automatically Contoured Normal Tissues in the Head and Neck

Purpose: To investigate and validate the use of an independent deformable-based contouring algorithm for automatic verification of auto-contoured structures in the head and neck towards fully automated treatment planning. Methods: Two independent automatic contouring algorithms [(1) Eclipse’s Smart Segmentation followed by pixel-wise majority voting, (2) an in-house multi-atlas based method] were used to create contours of 6 normal structures of 10 head-and-neck patients. After rating by a radiation oncologist, the higher performing algorithm was selected as the primary contouring method, the other used for automatic verification of the primary. To determine the ability of the verification algorithm to detect incorrect contours, contours from the primary method were shifted from 0.5 to 2cm. Using a logit model the structure-specific minimum detectable shift was identified. The models were then applied to a set of twenty different patients and the sensitivity and specificity of the models verified. Results: Per physician rating, the multi-atlas method (4.8/5 point scale, with 3 rated as generally acceptable for planning purposes) was selected as primary and the Eclipse-based method (3.5/5) for verification. Mean distance to agreement and true positive rate were selected as covariates in an optimized logit model. These models, when applied to a group of twenty different patients, indicated that shifts could be detected at 0.5cm (brain), 0.75cm (mandible, cord), 1cm (brainstem, cochlea), or 1.25cm (parotid), with sensitivity and specificity greater than 0.95. If sensitivity and specificity constraints are reduced to 0.9, detectable shifts of mandible and brainstem were reduced by 0.25cm. These shifts represent additional safety margins which might be considered if auto-contours are used for automatic treatment planning without physician review. Conclusion: Automatically contoured structures can be automatically verified. This fully automated process could be used to flag auto-contours for special review or used with safety margins in a fully automatic treatment planning system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Methodology Development for Passive Component Reliability Modeling in a Multi-Physics Simulation Environment

Reduction in safety margin can be expected as passive structures and components undergo degradation with time. Limitations in the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology constrain its value as an effective tool to address the impact of aging effects on risk and for quantifying the impact of aging management strategies in maintaining safety margins. A methodology has been developed to address multiple aging mechanisms involving large numbers of components (with possibly statistically dependent failures) within the PRA framework in a computationally feasible manner when the sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation environment, such as the New Generation System Code (NGSC) concept. Both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties can be accounted for within the same phenomenological framework and maintenance can be accounted for in a coherent fashion. The framework accommodates the prospective impacts of various intervention strategies such as testing, maintenance, and refurbishment. The methodology is illustrated with several examples.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulically‐vulnerable trees survive on deep‐water access during droughts in a tropical forest

Summary Deep‐water access is arguably the most effective, but under‐studied, mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep‐water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep‐water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data‐model approach. We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics (1990–2015) to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole‐soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water‐access depths. Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35 years (1981–2015) among evergreen species. Species exposure to water stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for water stress‐related mortality risk through deep‐water access. The role of deep‐water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically‐vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Radiotherapy beyond cancer: Target localization in real-time MRI and treatment planning for cardiac radiosurgery

Purpose: Atrial fibrillation (AFib) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia that affects millions of patients world-wide. AFib is usually treated with minimally invasive, time consuming catheter ablation techniques. While recently noninvasive radiosurgery to the pulmonary vein antrum (PVA) in the left atrium has been proposed for AFib treatment, precise target location during treatment is challenging due to complex respiratory and cardiac motion. A MRI linear accelerator (MRI-Linac) could solve the problems of motion tracking and compensation using real-time image guidance. In this study, the authors quantified target motion ranges on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and analyzed the dosimetric benefits of margin reduction assuming real-time motion compensation was applied. Methods: For the imaging study, six human subjects underwent real-time cardiac MRI under free breathing. The target motion was analyzed retrospectively using a template matching algorithm. The planning study was conducted on a CT of an AFib patient with a centrally located esophagus undergoing catheter ablation, representing an ideal case for cardiac radiosurgery. The target definition was similar to the ablation lesions at the PVA created during catheter treatment. Safety margins of 0 mm (perfect tracking) to 8 mm (untracked respiratory motion) were added to the target, defining the planning target volume (PTV). For each margin, a 30 Gy single fraction IMRT plan was generated. Additionally, the influence of 1 and 3 T magnetic fields on the treatment beam delivery was simulated using Monte Carlo calculations to determine the dosimetric impact of MRI guidance for two different Linac positions. Results: Real-time cardiac MRI showed mean respiratory target motion of 10.2 mm (superior–inferior), 2.4 mm (anterior–posterior), and 2 mm (left–right). The planning study showed that increasing safety margins to encompass untracked respiratory motion leads to overlapping structures even in the ideal scenario, compromising either normal tissue dose constraints or PTV coverage. The magnetic field caused a slight increase in the PTV dose with the in-line MRI-Linac configuration. Conclusions: The authors’ results indicate that real-time tracking and motion compensation are mandatory for cardiac radiosurgery and MRI-guidance is feasible, opening the possibility of treating cardiac arrhythmia patients completely noninvasively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Living on the edge: A continental-scale assessment of forest vulnerability to drought

Globally, forests are facing an increasing risk of mass tree mortality events associated with extreme droughts and higher temperatures. Hydraulic dysfunction is considered a key mechanism of drought-triggered dieback. By leveraging the climate breadth of the Australian landscape and a national network of research sites (Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network), we conducted a continental-scale study of physiological and hydraulic traits of 33 native tree species from contrasting environments to disentangle the complexities of plant response to drought across communities. Here, we found strong relationships between key plant hydraulic traits and site aridity. Leaf turgor loss point and xylem embolism resistance were correlated with minimum water potential experienced by each species. Across the data set, there was a strong coordination between hydraulic traits, including those linked to hydraulic safety, stomatal regulation and the cost of carbon investment into woody tissue. These results illustrate that aridity has acted as a strong selective pressure, shaping hydraulic traits of tree species across the Australian landscape. Hydraulic safety margins were constrained across sites, with species from wetter sites tending to have smaller safety margin compared with species at drier sites, suggesting trees are operating close to their hydraulic thresholds and forest biomes across the spectrum may be susceptible to shifts in climate that result in the intensification of drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Data Analytics with Plant System Health Program

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Plant Health Management (PHM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate system sources of risk. This project development lives in cooperation with the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project. The RIAM project, in fact, uses the reliability models and data generated by the PHM project to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture). This year’s activities for the PHM project focused mainly on the development of two classes of models. The first one includes a series of component reliability models which include aging, testing and maintenance. The second class includes a series of system reliability models which focus on the secondary side of exiting U.S. reactors. These models are based on fault tree logic structures such that they can be used by existing plant PRA software. We also started to focus on the management of health data and we tackled this issue in two directions. The first one focuses on the integration of monitor data with simulation models to assess component health. This approach is moving from a classical data based to a model+data based approach with the goal of improving higher component health information. The second direction focuses on linking equipment reliability data (e.g., maintenance/failure reports, component monitoring data) directly to system reliability models using a safety margin based language rather than a probability based language. The main advantage of a safety margin based language is that it can provide to system engineers more tangible information on system/component health and how it propagates to the system level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗