System Safety Risk Analysis Models (SSRAM)
This presentation provides a high level overview of the System Safety Risk Analysis (SSRAM) methodology and motivation.
Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Laboratories↗
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Capability Enhancements for System-level thermal Hydraulic Modeling of Lead Fast Reactors
This project has focused on the use, assessment, and development of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) safety analysis software. Although SAS was originally intended as a safety analysis tool for Liquid Metal cooled Fast Reactors (LMFRs), which includes both Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs) and Lead Fast Reactors (LFRs), the vast majority of its recent development and customization has been tailored to SFRs. In general, enhancements that are made to the software for SFRs are applicable to LFRs, however, the fuel composition and corrosive nature of lead requires careful consideration when performing safety analysis of an LFR. In this project an emphasis was placed on closing gaps that are associated with modeling LFRs using SAS. The principal objective of the project was to enhance the ability of SAS as a licensing tool for LFRs. This objective was to be accomplished through three tasks: 1) Enhance the ability of SAS to couple with external software; 2) Improve the underlying physics models in SAS, with priority given to models that are highly relevant to LFRs; 3) Extend the Verification and Validation (V&V) basis of the software
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SAM Developments for MSR Modeling (FY21)
An advanced system analysis tool, SAM, is under development for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis, including molten salt reactors (MSR). To support the development and utilization of the SAM code for MSR safety analysis and licensing, continuous efforts have been devoted to enhancing code capabilities and updating reference models for the MSRs. This report documents the FY21 progress in SAM code development, capability enhancements, and reference model development to support transient safety analysis of MSRs, including code enhancements in reactor kinetics and reactivity feedback modeling for liquid fuel reactors, updates of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) primary system model, developments and updates of the molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) model based on EVOL design, and implementation of a drift flux model for modeling gas transport in MSR systems.
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Development of a leading simulator/trailing simulator methodology as part of an integrated safety-security analysis for nuclear power plants
Nuclear power plant (NPP) risk assessment is broadly separated into disciplines of nuclear safety, security, and safeguards. Different analysis methods and computer models have been constructed to analyze each of these as separate disciplines. However, due to the complexity of NPP systems, there are risks that can span all these disciplines and require consideration of safety-security (2S) interactions which allows a more complete understanding of the relationship among these risks. In this work, a novel leading simulator/trailing simulator (LS/TS) method is introduced to integrate multiple generic safety and security computer models into a single, holistic 2S analysis. A case study is performed using this novel method to determine its effectiveness. The case study shows that the LS/TS method avoided introducing errors in simulation, compared to the same scenario performed without the LS/TS method. A second case study is then used to illustrate an integrated 2S analysis which shows that different levels of damage to vital equipment from sabotage at a NPP can affect accident evolution by several hours.
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SAM Co-Development to Support Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor Design and Licensing (CRADA 2018-18177 Final Report)
This project aims to raise the SAM code's technical and commercial maturity level to enable the Kairos Power ("Kairos") to use SAM to support its KP-FHR design analysis and licensing application. Argonne National Laboratory ("Argonne") has actively developed and maintained SAM, a modern system-level analysis tool for advanced nonlight water reactors safety analysis. Kairos is currently actively pursuing development of an FHR design and associated technology, and consequently requires a pedigreed safety analysis tool. The purpose of this project is to increase the maturity of the SAM code for the modeling and simulation of the KP-FHR design, thus enabling its use in safety analyses that support licensing application. Argonne will primarily be responsible for software design, development, and testing; while Kairos will be responsible for software requirements, assessment of software capabilities, needs, gaps, and priorities, and development of proprietary models. The research and development activities for the joint SAM development project include: a series of identification and prioritization studies on design characteristics, event sequences, relevant phenomena, and software capabilities; SAM capability enhancements for specific KP-FHR systems and components; performing code verification and validations; integrating uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration, and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques in safety analyses; and raising the software quality rigor level for commercial-grade applications.
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Development of phenomena identification and ranking table for Westinghouse lead fast reactor’s safety
The Westinghouse Lead-cooled Fast Reactor (LFR) is a medium-size, passively safe, economic, Gen-IV nuclear reactor. An important effort within the Westinghouse LFR program is the development of the safety analysis methodology, which comprises computer code development, model development, and experimental testing. A key initial task associated with the development of the safety analysis methodology is the identification of processes and phenomena that affect the plant's capability to meet selected safety performance indicators. This is accomplished through the development of a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for selected accident scenarios which, for this specific PIRT effort, included selected postulated design basis accidents and hypothetical beyond design basis accidents in LFRs. This paper describes the role of PIRT in the development of the Westinghouse LFR safety analysis methodology and the process used in the PIRT development. Specifically, the Westinghouse LFR PIRT assessed importance of pertinent phenomena and identified gaps in their knowledge-base by evaluating current modeling capabilities and data available for validation. The ultimate goal was to provide guidance on computer code development and validation efforts and to prioritize testing to support LFR design and licensing. The key phenomena and processes that are deemed highly important for the safety performance indicators, but for which the state of knowledge is low, are presented. The testing program and analyses development are planned to address significant phenomena in the PIRT.
Lead fast reactor↗
Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation
In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.
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Joint Development of SAS4A Code in Application to Oxide-fueled LFR Severe Accident Analysis
The scope of this project was to pursue specific SAS4A liquid-metal cooled reactor (LMR) safety analysis software extensions to simulate postulated accidents with fuel failures for oxide-fueled Lead-cooled Fast Reactors (LFRs). Since most U.S. LMR experience is on sodium-cooled fast reactor options based on past testing and operation experience with EBR-II and FFTF, the DOE’s legacy fast reactor safety analysis capabilities were focused on metal-fueled pool-type concepts with sodium coolant. In recent years, Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has decided to pursue an LFR design as one of their next generation nuclear technology options because of its favorable safety and economics attributes. Oxide fuel is considered among other fuel options due to previous WEC experience with this fuel form. Development of this new technology requires the availability of adequately accurate computational tools, some of which can be adapted from versions of similar software used for analysis of other LMRs. Although Argonne National Laboratory’s (ANL) SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis software suite (shortened as SAS4A code hereafter for brevity) has the basic capabilities to model LFR system designs, the SAS4A code modules used in the analysis of accidents with fuel/cladding failures lack appropriate models for the unique phenomena that govern as-irradiated oxide-fuel damage mechanisms in lead coolant. Therefore, the objective of this project was to extend the capabilities of SAS4A with mechanistic oxide-fuel failure models in lead coolant for margin to failure assessments, analysis of failure modes, location and timing of failures under different accident scenarios consistent with the whole-plant dynamic response including the reactivity feedback, and assessment of the potential for fuel damage propagation due to potential fission gas jet and fuel-fragment/molten fuel impingement to neighboring fuel pins in an assembly. This report provides mainly a summary of Argonne’s technical contributions in the joint project, but the reports and publications by the Participant team are included as references at the end of the report.
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Enhancing Operational Safety via Agentic Dialogue Hazard Identification Analysis
Operational safety in high-stakes domains such as industrial process control, autonomous, and safety-critical systems demand reliable hazard identification. While large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in automating safety analysis tasks, single-turn, monolithic inference is brittle: it lacks the self-correction, deliberation, and contextual refinement that safety engineers apply iteratively. In this paper, we introduce HAZDIAL, a framework that investigates whether structured agentic dialogue (multi-agent, multi-turn interactions) improves the quality of NLP-based hazard identification over single-pass baselines. We systematically compare two dialogue modalities: adversarial debate and constructive discussion, and propose an genetic algorithm-based agentic interaction optimization. We evaluate all configurations against a curated golden dataset using standard classification metrics (accuracy, precision, recall, F1) and a novel dialogue metrics. This work advances the intersection of dialogue systems, multi-agent reasoning, and AI safety, providing empirical evidence for dialogue-driven hazard analysis.
Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗
Application of Constellation's best estimate alternate source term methodology
Safety analyses for a nuclear power plants need to consider postulated accidents that results in a risk of accidental release of radiation. The regulations require plant specific safety analysis reports to include an evaluation of the requirements of 10CFR50.67. Such a safety analysis report mandates limits such that calculated radiological consequences at certain locations do not exceed established limits in 10CFR50.67 following a postulated release of radioactivity. Analyses should demonstrate, with reasonable assurance, that these prescribed limits are complied with. Conventional methodologies utilize conservative approaches to address lack of uncertainty quantification in the utilized approaches, methods, and/or inputs. These built-in excess conservatisms often result in with compounding effects and hence overly conservative results in the estimated radiological consequences, which leads to inaccurate margin evaluation for operation and accident mitigation. Therefore, evaluating accurate dose consequences is needed for both operational and safety reasons. This paper illustrates the use of the best estimate source term (BEAST) methodology to the case of the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) dose analysis.
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Constellation's best estimate alternate source term methodology overview
Safety analyses for a nuclear power plants need to consider postulated accidents that results in at risk of accidental release of radiation. The regulations require plant specific safety analysis reports to include an evaluation of the requirements of 10CFR50.67. Such a safety analysis report mandates limits such that calculated radiological consequences relative to certain dose locations do not exceed a total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) limits following a postulated release of radioactivity. Calculations are performed to estimate the radiological consequences, in terms of dose, to people and equipment to ensure the estimated doses are within the prescribed limits. Analysis should demonstrate, with reasonable assurance, that these prescribed limits are complied with. Conventional methodologies utilize conservative approaches to address lack of uncertainty quantification in the utilized approaches, methods, and/or inputs. These built-in excess conservatisms often result in compounding effects and hence overly conservative results in the estimated radiological consequences, which leads to inaccurate margin evaluation for operation and accident mitigation. Therefore, evaluating accurate dose consequences is needed for both operational and safety reasons. The research documented in this paper provides an overview of Constellation's Best Estimate Alternate Source Term (BEAST) Methodology. BEAST methodology relies upon the use of realistic yet bounding input distributions for key analysis parameters, which replaces use of conservative deterministic singular inputs that bound overall analysis domain. This approach enables evaluating a more accurate accident analysis response, while enabling a bounding licensing basis envelope via more accurate quantification of uncertainty in the application. Therefore, built-in margin for a given scenario is more accurately evaluated.
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VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation
The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.
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SAM Finite Volume Method Development Status Update: GCR Application, Restart, and MultiApp
The System Analysis Module (SAM) is being developed as a modern system analysis code for advanced non-light-water-reactor safety analysis under the U.S. DOE NEAMS program. Previous feasibility studies have demonstrated that a staggered-grid finite volume method (SG-FVM), implemented under the MOOSE framework, can deliver more than an order of magnitude speedup over the existing continuous Galerkin finite element method (CG-FEM) solver for liquid-cooled, incompressible but thermally expandable flow systems. This work extends the previous effort to compressible, gas-cooled reactor applications, where pressure couples directly into the mass equation adding additional nonlinearity into the equation system. New code capabilities are implemented for pebble bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PB-HTGR) analysis, including a pebble bed CoreChannel component, built-in pebble bed effective thermal conductivity model and channel-to-channel crossflow model. The capabilities are tested, benchmarked, and demonstrated for problems with increased level of model and physical complexities, including the HTTU effective thermal conductivity test, the SANA passive cooling test, and a demonstration case using the GPBR200 reactor design covering steady-state operation, DLOFC and PLOFC transients. Across all cases, the SG-FVM solver demonstrated strong robustness and efficiency, and the solutions agree well with reference results and data. The finding of this work proves that SG-FVM is a viable and efficient solver pathway for compressible, gas-cooled reactor system analysis in SAM. In addition, work has been done to successfully support SAM-FVM recover/restart code feature that is essential to reactor safety analysis applications, and MultiApp code feature that is essential to multi-scale and multi-physics simulations. In summary, this work continued from previous feasibility studies, and further demonstrated that the SG-FVM will serve as a strong foundation for SAM’s advanced solver algorithm for future deployment.
Zou, Ling↗
HFIR LEU High Density Silicide Dispersion Optimized Design Steady-State Heat Transfer Analyses
Steady-state heat transfer simulations of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) with the low-enriched uranium (LEU) high-density silicide dispersion Optimized fuel design were performed to support comprehensive performance and safety metric studies concerning this design. The LEU Optimized design operates at 95 MW to maintain HFIR’s current highly enriched uranium (HEU) core performance level at 85 MW. Full cycle Mode 1 full flow Case 1 (inlet temperature), Case 2 (flux-to-flow), and Case 3 (inlet pressure) safety limit analyses were performed to assess the margins to critical heat flux. Under the prescribed conditions, this LEU design meets the safety limit and limiting control setting requirements outlined in HFIR’s documented safety analysis; however, the safety margins are less than those for the 85 MW HEU core, and several assumptions were made where fuel fabrication and qualification data are currently lacking for the silicide fuel design. Effects of changes to pertinent fuel fabrication assumptions and uncertainty factors on thermal safety margins were also evaluated, showing that the margins are sensitive to many of these parameters. Power and pressure perturbations were also performed, indicating that significant steady-state thermal margins could be gained by increasing the coolant inlet pressure.
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SAM Theory Manual
The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analyses capabilities, which are essential for fast turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, advanced modeling techniques being implemented include a reduced-order three-dimensional module, pseudo 3-D conjugate heat transfer modeling in reactor core, flexible and multi-scale modeling of heat transfer between fluid and structures, in addition to the advances in software environments and design, and numerical methods. SAM aims to be a generic system-level safety analysis tool for advanced non-LWRs, including Liquid-Metal-cooled fast Reactors (LMR), Molten Salt Reactors (MSR), Fluoride-salt-cooled High- temperature Reactors (FHR), and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR). SAM takes ad- vantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented computational framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library and linear and non-linear solvers, to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As new code capabilities and features are added, the SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.
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SAM Theory Manual
The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analyses capabilities, which are essential for fast turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, advanced modeling techniques being implemented include a reduced-order three-dimensional module, pseudo 3-D conjugate heat transfer modeling in reactor core, flexible and multi-scale modeling of heat transfer between fluid and structures, in addition to the advances in software environments and design, and numerical methods. SAM aims to be a generic system-level safety analysis tool for advanced non-LWRs, including Liquid-Metal-cooled fast Reactors (LMR), Molten Salt Reactors (MSR), Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHR), and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR). SAM takes advantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented computational framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library and linear and non-linear solvers, to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As new code capabilities and features are added, the SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.
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Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models
The document is the Final Technical Progress Report for the Nuclear Energy University Program’s Integrated Research Project (IRP) on “Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models” that supports the LWR Sustainability Program’s RISMC R&D Pathway. The project goal is to develop and demonstrate a data-driven methodology for validation of advanced computer models used in nuclear power plant safety analysis. Specifically, the advanced computer models are those in the toolkit developed to support risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC), an integrated deterministic/probabilistic safety analysis methodology developed in the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWR-S) program. The report reflects the progress made towards the project’s stated goal by contributions by researchers and graduate students from universities, with support from researchers from national laboratories and industry companies. The project organization, effort coordination and technical implementation are summarized, followed by discussion of main findings, issues, and path forward. Selected chapters provide a more detailed description of tasks, approaches and respective findings and recommendations. Noteworthy are contributions that serve as guidelines for methodology development. It is also noted that this report is complemented by other milestone reports (as stand-alone deliverables) that provide detailed discussion of the technical developments. The project results have been documented in a number (12) dissertations and these, 50+ peer-reviewed publications in technical journals and conference proceedings.
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Code Coverage Status of the ARC Code PERSENT
The Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software system supports users in their fast reactor design goals by providing neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and structural analysis capabilities. PERSENT fulfills the role of generating reactivity coefficients for a given time point of a REBUS calculation usable in a point kinetics based safety analysis capability. PERSENT also provides a sensitivity coefficient capability on eigenvalue, reactivity worth, and several other key coefficients that are used in the follow-on safety analysis. Given a co-variance matrix, PERSENT can carry out the uncertainty quantification to indicate the amount of error in the reactivity coefficients derived from the errors in the cross section measurements. With continued improvement of computational resources, many of the geometry modeling capabilities in DIF3D that were primarily used in low order schemes are not really needed anymore. Today, the diffusion and transport capabilities of DIF3D-VARIANT are primarily used in the reactor design process with some scattered usage of DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-Nodal. PERSENT is part of the ARC code system and is built around DIF3D-VARIANT and the flux solution it provides. The purpose of the present work is to identify a set of test problems for PERSENT and assess the code coverage of PERSENT for those test problems. PERSENT treats the DIF3D executable as an external executable and thus the code coverage considerations only need to focus on the PERSENT source code and only a fraction of the connected modules in the existing ARC software library. The goal is to document what parts of the existing PERSENT code are touched by the set of test problems and which are not. Because the verification work done on PERSENT was focused on the most common uses of PERSENT for fast reactor analysis, the code coverage assessment of those capabilities is the highest priority. This will ensure that nothing is being missed by the existing verification test problems that users of PERSENT rely upon. The code coverage analysis of PERSENT was performed with the Code Coverage Tool of the Intel Fortran compiler which requires modifications to the compilation of PERSENT. The detailed coverage tables are given for each submodule of PERSENT. Most of the uncovered parts/files could be easily ignored because they are either for error message and debugging output or not needed by PERSENT today. Only a few uncovered parts of PERSENT deserve extending the verification test suite.
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