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DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program Final Technical Report

The Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program was a multi-year initiative aimed at advancing hybrid tandem solar cell technologies to enhance solar module efficiency beyond the limits of single junction devices. This project focused on the development, testing, and scaling of prototype photovoltaic devices, with the goal of achieving commercial relevance and driving industry adoption. The work was divided into three tasks: 1) Comparative Analysis of Tandem Technologies: This task focused on quantifying energy yield under real-world conditions and assessing economic viability of tandems relative to silicon-based modules. The project's modeling framework incorporated performance data, cost of materials, and manufacturing process impacts to optimize tandem designs 2) Tandem Integration and Prototyping: In this task, we developed innovative tandem designs by combining metal halide perovskite (MHP) top cells and silicon (Si) bottom cells. The project focuses on both mechanical integration and direct deposition techniques to enable compatibility with commercially relevant Si technologies, such as passivated contact or PERC cells. 3) Scale-up and Reliability: This task addressed the challenges of large-area fabrication by developing scalable deposition methods and robust interconnection schemes for tandems. The project looked at different accelerated testing such as thermal cycling, damp heat exposure, and potential induced degradation, to ensure long-term stability of devices in field conditions. Tandem solar cells can greatly increase module efficiency beyond conventional single junction (SJ) devices, which are approaching their theoretical limit. There are many ways to fabricate a tandem cell or module in terms of materials used, configuration, and terminal connection. This SETO core project focused critical factors in enabling tandems to enter the market, including hardware integration, technoeconomic analysis (TEA), and energy yield analysis. We focused on MHP/Si hybrid tandem solar cells and modules as a model system for their versatility in module design comparisons, providing valuable insights for other tandem options. While champion cells with areas <1cm2 are regularly demonstrated by groups around the world, it is significantly more challenging to translate these advances into modules, and fewer institutions and companies are working at the module level. This project addressed questions about module fabrication, testing, and reliability that are hard to answer without actually fabricating prototypes. We also performed analysis and road-mapping activities to understand the potential for a wider variety of tandems, including all-perovskite tandems fabricated in collaboration with the Perovskite PV core program. Detailed technical results from this project are described for each task in Section 7.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1974

Detection of moisture and moisture related phenomena from Skylab

The author had identified the following significant results. Soil moisture and precipitation variations were not detectable as tonal variations on the S19OA IR B and W photography. Some light tonal areas contained high precipitation .83 inches and high moisture content 21.1% while other light tonal areas contained only .02 inches precipitation and as little as 0.7% moisture. Similar variations were observed in dark tonal areas. This inconsistency may be caused by a lapse of 3 to 4 days from the time precipitation occurred until the photographs were taken and the fact that in the first inch of soil the measured soil moisture was generally less than 5.0%. For overall tonal contrast, the aerial color, color IR and aerial B and W appear to be the best. Cities stand out from the landscape best in the aerial color and color IR, however, to see major street patterns a combination of the two aerial B and W bands and the two IR B and W bands may be desirable. For mapping roads it is best use all 6 bands. For lake detection, the IR B and W bands would be the best but for streams the aerial B and W band would be better. The aerial color, color IR, and the two IR B and W bands are best for distinguishing cultivated and non-cultivated areas, whereas the two aerial B and W bands are better for seeing local relief. Clouds may be best seen in the aerial color and color IR bands.

Eagleman, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Space Station Engineering and Technology Development

The evolving space station program will be examined through a series of more specific studies: maintainability; research and technology in space; solar thermodynamics research and technology; program performance; onboard command and control; and research and technology road maps. The purpose is to provide comments on approaches to long-term, reliable operation at low cost in terms of funds and crew time.

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NASA NTRS1985

Space Station Engineering and Technology Development. Proceedings of the Panel on Program Performance and Onboard Mission Control

An ad-hoc committee was asked to review the following questions relevant to the space station program: (1) onboard maintainability and repair; (2) in-space research and technology program and facility plans; (3) solar thermodynamic research and technology development program planning; (4) program performance (cost estimating, management, and cost avoidance); (5) onboard versus ground-based mission control; and (6) technology development road maps from IOC to the growth station. The objective of these new assignments is to provide NASA with advice on ways and means for improving the content, performance, and/or effectiveness of these elements of the space station program.

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NASA NTRS1987

Ka-band (32 GHz) spacecraft development plan

A road map for the development of a protoflight 32 GHz spacecraft solid state transmitter is given. The major milestones include the development of device and component technology required for use in the spaceborne experimental and operational transmitter systems. Two experimental spacecraft transmitter systems are envisioned: first, a low power beacon, to determine the performance of a 32 GHz downlink communications system; and second, an array feed, to further verify the results of the first experiment and service as a test bed for technology required for an operational system. The first experiment was proposed to NASA Headquarters for flight aboard the Mars Observer spacecraft with spacecraft integration in early 1989. The second is to be available for integration aboard a spacecraft such as the Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) mission in the 1990 time frame. These experimental systems are to lead to the development of a protoflight transmitter for subsequent spacecraft integration in 1992, the time frame of the Cassini mission to Saturn.

Riley, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Surveillance systems test and evaluation facilities

In January of 1983, a team was formed to explore test methodologies and test facility concepts required to meet the needs of space-based surveillance systems. The output of this study was a road map of test methodologies and test facilities that will aid the development of this country's critical space-based sensor assets. A condensation of those results is given.

Matty, Jere J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

CFD validation for forebody inlet interactions

Topics covered include the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) task force philosophy, a road map for CFD code validation, computer code validation requirements for forebodies and inlets, the criteria for choosing recommended experiments, an all-body hypersonic experiment, and centerline heat transfer. Information is given in viewgraph form.

Marvin, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Beyond the Baseline 1991: Proceedings of the Space Station Evolution Symposium. Volume 1: Space Station Freedom, part 1

Personnel responsible for Advanced Systems Studies and Advanced Development within the Space Station Freedom Program reported on the results of their work to date. The results of SSF Advanced Studies provide a road map for the evolution of Freedom in terms of user requirements, utilization and operations concepts, and growth options for distributed systems. Regarding these specific systems, special attention is given to: highlighting changes made during restructuring; description of growth paths thru the follow-on and evolution phases; identification of minimum impact provisions to allow flexibility in the baseline; and identification of enhancing and enabling technologies. Products of these tasks include: engineering fidelity demonstrations and evaluations of advanced technology; detailed requirements, performance specifications, and design accommodations for insertion of advanced technology.

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NASA NTRS1991

Beyond the Baseline 1991: Proceedings of the Space Station Evolution Symposium. Volume 1: Space Station Freedom, part 2

This report contains the individual presentations delivered at the Space Station Evolution Symposium. The results of Space Station Freedom Advanced Studies provide a road map for the evolution of Freedom in terms of user requirements, utilization and operations concepts, and growth options for distributed systems. Regarding these specific systems, special attention is given to: highlighting changes made during restructuring; description of growth paths through the follow-on and evolution phases; identification of minimum impact provisions to allow flexibility in the baseline; and identification of enhancing and enabling technologies.

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NASA NTRS1992

Integrated health monitoring and controls for rocket engines

Current research in intelligent control systems at the Lewis Research Center is described in the context of a functional framework. The framework is applicable to a variety of reusable space propulsion systems for existing and future launch vehicles. It provides a 'road map' technology development to enable enhanced engine performance with increased reliability, durability, and maintainability. The framework hierarchy consists of a mission coordination level, a propulsion system coordination level, and an engine control level. Each level is described in the context of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The concept of integrating diagnostics with control is discussed within the context of the functional framework. A distributed real time simulation testbed is used to realize and evaluate the functionalities in closed loop.

Merrill, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

GPS interferometric attitude and heading determination - Flight test results

Methods and results for realtime pitch, roll, and heading determination of a dynamic flexible platform are presented. Consideration is given to a GPS attitude and heading determination system installed in Ohio University's Douglas DC-3 research aircraft. Signals from four antennas are processed by an Ashtech 3DF 24-channel GPS receiver. Data from the receiver are sent to a microcomputer for storage and further computations. Attitude and heading data are sent to a second computer for display on a software generated artificial horizon. Demonstration of this technique proves its candidacy for augmentation of aircraft state estimation for flight control and navigation as well as for numerous other applications, such as reliable aircraft state estimation, measurement of structural flexing of large space structures, synthetic aperture radar, aerial photogrammetry, pointing systems, spacecraft attitude control, rendezvous and docking, and road mapping.

Van Graas, Frank↗

NASA NTRS1992

Communications system evolutionary scenarios for Martian SEI support

In the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) mission scenarios, expanding human presence is the primary driver for high data rate Mars-Earth communications. To support an expanding human presence, the data rate requirement will be gradual, following the phased implementation over time of the evolving SEI mission. Similarly, the growth and evolution of the space communications infrastructure to serve this requirement will also be gradual to efficiently exploit the useful life of the installed communications infrastructure and to ensure backward compatibility with long-term users. In work conducted over the past year, a number of alternatives for supporting high data rate Mars-Earth communications have been analyzed with respect to their compatibility with gradual evolution of the space communications infrastructure. The alternatives include RF, millimeter wave (MMW), and optical implementations, and incorporate both surface and space-based relay terminals in the Mars and Earth regions. Each alternative is evaluated with respect to its ability to efficiently meet a projected growth in data rate over time, its technology readiness, and its capability to satisfy the key conditions and constraints imposed by evolutionary transition. As a result of this analysis, a set of attractive alternative communications architectures have been identified and described, and a road map is developed that illustrates the most rational and beneficial evolutionary paths for the communications infrastructure.

Kwong, Paulman W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Pathways to excellence: A Federal strategy for science, mathematics, engineering, and technology education

This Strategic Plan was developed by the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET) through its Committee on Education and Human Resources (CEHR), with representatives from 16 Federal agencies. Based on two years of coordinated interagency effort, the Plan confirms the Federal Government's commitment to ensuring the health and well-being of science, mathematics, engineering, and technology education at all levels and in all sectors (i.e., elementary and secondary, undergraduate, graduate, public understanding of science, and technology education). The Plan represents the Federal Government's efforts to develop a five-year planning framework and associated milestones that focus Federal planning and the resources of the participating agencies toward achieving the requisite or expected level of mathematics and science competence by all students. The priority framework outlines the strategic objectives, implementation priorities, and components for the Strategic Plan and serves as a road map for the Plan. The Plan endorses a broad range of ongoing activities, including continued Federal support for graduate education as the backbone of our country's research and development enterprise. The Plan also identifies three tiers of program activities with goals that address issues in science, mathematics, engineering, and technology education meriting special attention. Within each tier, individual agency programs play important and often unique roles that strengthen the aggregate portfolio. The three tiers are presented in descending order of priority: (1) reforming the formal education system; (2) expanding participation and access; and (3) enabling activities.

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NASA NTRS1993

On the design of fault-tolerant robotic manipulator systems

Robotic systems are finding increasing use in space applications. Many of these devices are going to be operational on board the Space Station Freedom. Fault tolerance has been deemed necessary because of the criticality of the tasks and the inaccessibility of the systems to maintenance and repair. Design for fault tolerance in manipulator systems is an area within robotics that is without precedence in the literature. In this paper, we will attempt to lay down the foundations for such a technology. Design for fault tolerance demands new and special approaches to design, often at considerable variance from established design practices. These design aspects, together with reliability evaluation and modeling tools, are presented. Mechanical architectures that employ protective redundancies at many levels and have a modular architecture are then studied in detail. Once a mechanical architecture for fault tolerance has been derived, the chronological stages of operational fault tolerance are investigated. Failure detection, isolation, and estimation methods are surveyed, and such methods for robot sensors and actuators are derived. Failure recovery methods are also presented for each of the protective layers of redundancy. Failure recovery tactics often span all of the layers of a control hierarchy. Thus, a unified framework for decision-making and control, which orchestrates both the nominal redundancy management tasks and the failure management tasks, has been derived. The well-developed field of fault-tolerant computers is studied next, and some design principles relevant to the design of fault-tolerant robot controllers are abstracted. Conclusions are drawn, and a road map for the design of fault-tolerant manipulator systems is laid out with recommendations for a 10 DOF arm with dual actuators at each joint.

Tesar, Delbert↗

NASA NTRS1992

Integrated health monitoring and controls for rocket engines

Merrill, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Development and test of electromechanical actuators for thrust vector control

A road map of milestones toward the goal of a full scale Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor/Flight Support Motor (RSRM/FSM) hot fire test is discussed. These milestones include: component feasibility, full power system demonstration, SSME hot fire tests, and RSRM hot fire tests. The participation of the Marshall Space Flight Center is emphasized.

Weir, Rae A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Air-breathing aerospace plane development essential: Hypersonic propulsion flight tests

Hypersonic air-breathing propulsion utilizing scramjets can fundamentally change transatmospheric accelerators for low earth-to-orbit and return transportation. The value and limitations of ground tests, of flight tests, and of computations are presented, and scramjet development requirements are discussed. It is proposed that near full-scale hypersonic propulsion flight tests are essential for developing a prototype hypersonic propulsion system and for developing computational-design technology so that it can be used for designing this system. In order to determine how these objectives should be achieved, some lessons learned from past programs are presented. A conceptual two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) prototype/experimental aerospace plane is recommended as a means of providing access-to-space and for conducting flight tests. A road map for achieving these objectives is also presented.

Mehta, Unmeel B.↗