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At least 109 records · Page 6

Montana Water Resources II: Enhancing a Moisture Index for Drought and Flood Monitoring in the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin is a major global breadbasket, containing large amounts of agricultural land. Recent devastating weather events have motivated regional organizations to dedicate efforts to drought and flood monitoring and early warning systems. The DEVELOP team partnered with the following organizations: Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, NOAA Regional Climate Services of the Central Region, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, and the US Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. The team collaborated with the partners in their efforts to monitor flood and drought by enhancing a composite moisture index (CMI) for the Missouri River Basin. The CMI leverages NASA Earth observations to derive snow cover data from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mission and snow water equivalent and snowdepth datasets from the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Building upon this framework, the team added groundwater storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On missions, soil moisture data from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and United States Geological Survey in situ streamflow data to the CMI. To test the tool’s validity, the team compared the CMI results to historically extreme dry and extreme wet years, March 2017 and March 2019, respectively. The CMI accurately reflects both 2017 and 2019 climate conditions in the Missouri River Basin. The refined CMI enhances the understanding of antecedent soil moisture conditions and improves flood and drought forecasting in the Missouri River Basin before the growing season.

Chloe Schneider

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand

Modeling the microplastic distribution along the Delaware River Estuary: Accumulation patterns and hydrodynamic influences

Microplastic pollution is an escalating environmental concern, particularly in densely populated estuary regions, where it poses significant threats to aquatic life and human health. The dispersion patterns of microplastic particles along estuaries are influenced and complicated by multiple environmental factors such as river flow, tidal mixing, salt intrusion, and estuarine circulation. This study examines the accumulation and dispersion patterns by modeling three typical classes of microplastics in the Delaware River Estuary: synthetic fibers, sinking plastic films, and rising plastic pellets. Our findings reveal specific areas with high microplastic accumulation for each type. Notably, the upper estuary regions exhibit significant retention of rising microplastics, associated with a region with reduced along-thalweg velocities downstream of Trenton, NJ and upstream of Philadelphia, PA. Conversely, synthetic fibers and sinking plastic films accumulate in the flow convergence zone near the bottom salinity front, typically downstream of Philadelphia. All of the microplastic accumulation hot spot locations are controlled by the balance of river discharge and salinity intrusions. During the dry season, microplastic accumulation hot spots shift upstream in the estuary, whereas in the wet season, the strong river discharge pushes them downstream. Furthermore, on the other hand, tidal mixing, settling, and resuspension processes strongly impact the spreading of microplastics along the river.

Delaware River Estuary

Impacts of Alternative Operations and Renewable Energy Deployment on Columbia River Hydropower

The Columbia River Treaty Tribes in the Pacific Northwest - the Nez Perce, Umatilla, Warm Springs, and Yakama - hold treaty-reserved fishing rights for the Columbia River, one of the world's most productive salmon rivers and a critical resource for these tribes. However, the tribes have expressed that current operating regimes of hydropower dams throughout the Columbia River Basin (CRB) do not fully account for tribal fishing rights and have negatively impacted fish populations. Four tribes acting together through the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC)'s 2022 Energy Vision stated that current power system models often do not fully account for the many constraints faced by hydropower facilities in the CRB. As the deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) like solar and wind continues to increase, power system flexibility will become increasingly important. As a result, there is a growing need to better understand the true capabilities of the hydropower generation fleet while accurately accounting for ecological constraints (Northwest Power and Conservation Council 2022). Understanding hydropower's role in a future grid with a higher share of VRE can inform water resources planning to address ecological needs. The goal of this study is to examine the impacts of alternative hydropower operation rules and weather variability on hydropower generation and grid operations in VRE and transmission infrastructure deployment scenarios. The study evaluates how hydropower scheduling practices can reduce ecological impacts to the region's salmon populations. More specifically, the study examines the impact of today's dam water release rules (called "adjusted base water rules" in this study) and new, ecologically informed water release rules (called "ecosystem water rules" in this study) on two VRE scenarios (current renewable energy levels and higher renewable energy levels) using six weather years for each scenario (2008-2013). CRITFC developed the ecosystem water rules, which capture a portion of the changes they recommend for CRB hydropower operations. These analyses use a water resource planning model (OASIS) and a production cost model (PLEXOS) to simulate CRB reservoir cascade and Western Interconnection power grid operation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Flood Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides, Rain and Sea Level Rise for a Tidal River Estuary

Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland "wet extratropical" cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931-2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by approximately 30-60 percent at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level.

Tidal river

The Impacts of Freshwater Input and Surface Wind Velocity on the Strength and Extent of a Large High Latitude River Plume

Arctic Ocean physical and biogeochemical properties are strongly influenced by freshwater input from land and through the Bering Strait, where the mean currents transport water northward from the Bering Sea. The Yukon River is one of the largest rivers in North America and the Arctic, contributing large quantities of freshwater and terrigenous material to the coastal ocean in the northern Bering Sea. However, a detailed analysis of the coastal hydrodynamics at the outflow of the river has not been conducted in this remote but regionally important river. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was built to represent the lower Yukon River and coastal ocean for the ice-free months in 7 years. On average, a large anticyclonic eddy persisted at the main outflow of the Yukon that recirculates water back toward the coast where the currents converge to form a mean northward transport along the delta. Interannual spatial variance in salinity was relatively small, while there was substantial variance in u and v current velocity. u velocity spatial variance was correlated to the volume of freshwater discharge across years, while v velocity spatial variance was correlated to the N–S wind velocity. During strong wind events, plume structure was substantially altered: southerly winds deepened the plume and enhanced northward transport, while northerly winds shoaled and strengthened the pycnocline, and reversed the flow toward the south. The variability in plume dispersion on short time scales due to wind forcing has implications for where terrigenous material is processed in and settles out of the water column.

river plume

River systems under peaked stress

The change in the global energy production mix towards variable renewable energy sources requires efficient utilization of regulated rivers to optimise hydropower operations meet the needs of a changing energy market. However, the flexible operation of hydropower plants causes non-natural, sub-daily fluctuating flows in the receiving water bodies, often referred to as ‘hydropeaking’. Drastic changes in sub-daily flow regimes undermine attempts to improve river system health. Environmental decision makers, including permitting authorities and river basin managers facing the intense and increasing pressure on river environments, should consider ecosystem services and biodiversity issues more thoroughly. The need for research innovations in hydropeaking operation design to fulfil both the water and energy security responsibilities of hydropower is highlighted. Our paper outlines optimized hydropeaking design as a future research direction to help researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize actions that could enable better integration of river science and energy system planning. The goal of this is to find a balanced hydropower operation strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Water Stress in Global Transboundary River Basins: Significance of Upstream Water Use on Downstream Stress

Growing population and water demand have increased pressure on water resources in various parts of the globe, including many transboundary river basins. While the impacts of upstream water use on downstream water availability have been analyzed in many of these international river basins, this has not been systematically done at the global scale using coherent and comparable datasets. In this study, we aim to assess the change in downstream water stress due to upstream water use in the world's transboundary river basins. Water stress was first calculated considering only local water use of each sub-basin based on country-basin mesh, then compared with the situation when upstream water use was subtracted from downstream water availability. Wefound that water stress was generally already high when considering only local water use, affecting 0.95-1.44 billion people or 33%-51% of the population in transboundary river basins. After accounting for upstream water use, stress level increased by at least 1 percentage-point for 30-65 sub-basins, affecting 0.29-1.13 billion people. Altogether 288 out of 298 middle-stream and downstream sub-basin areas experienced some change in stress level. Further, we assessed whether there is a link between increased water stress due to upstream water use and the number of conflictive and cooperative events in the transboundary river basins, as captured by two prominent databases. No direct relationship was found. This supports the argument that conflicts and cooperation events originate from a combination of different drivers, among which upstream-induced water stress may play a role. Our findings contribute to better understanding of upstream-downstream dynamics in water stress to help address water allocation problems.

Water

Reviewing Benefits and Costs of Hydropower Development Evidence From the Lower Mekong River Basin

In this paper, we examine the benefits and costs of hydropower development in the Mekong River Basin. We compare four major reports—the Mekong River Commission's (MRC's) Basin Development Plan Programme, Phase 2 (BDP2), the Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream (SEA), the Study on the Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower on the Mekong River (MDS), and the MRC's recent council study (CS)—in order to provide the basis for a comparative analysis of the major impact evaluation literature on mainstream dam construction in the Mekong River Basin for the period of 2010–2018. The primary objective of the review is to identify points of agreement, disagreement, inconsistency, and knowledge gaps. Both Mekong River Commission reports (BDP2 and CS) suggest extensive economic benefits for proposed hydropower development, whereas the SEA and MDS indicate that the net impact would be negative. The projected impacts of hydropower development on fisheries, sediment flows, and ecosystems vary widely both in economic and biophysical terms. However, all four reports point to decreased food security and loss of local livelihoods for millions of people as major concerns related to dam development. While considerable resources have been devoted to producing these important studies, the lack of standardization across reports, especially assumptions and methodologies for economic impacts, frustrates efforts at meaningful comparison of their findings and precludes the prospect of clear analytical outcomes or policy impacts.

Cumulative impact assessment

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts

High resolution identification and quantification of diffuse deep groundwater discharge in mountain rivers using continuous boat-mounted helium measurements

Discharge of deeply sourced groundwater to streams is difficult to locate and quantify, particularly where both discrete and diffuse discharge points exist, but diffuse discharge is one of the primary controls on solute budgets in mountainous watersheds. The noble gas helium is a unique identifier of deep groundwater discharge because groundwater with long residence times is commonly enriched in helium. In this study, a portable mass spectrometer was used to measure longitudinal variation in dissolved helium concentrations in two mountainous rivers at high spatial resolution not feasible with traditional sampling techniques. Helium profiles were then simulated using a mass-balance model to quantify longitudinal variation in groundwater discharge to the receiving rivers. Results indicate helium concentrations were enriched by multiple orders of magnitude above atmospheric equilibrium in both rivers and that this persisted for up to 18 km below observed pulse inputs in the Colorado River. Helium mass-balance models match observed longitudinal patterns with the exception of sharp initial increases in helium observed in the rivers. Increased longitudinal groundwater discharge rates correspond to mapped geologic structures in both watersheds that likely transport deep geothermal water. Models show variable sensitivity to spatial assignment of input variables representing the groundwater source, illustrating the importance of collecting data from discrete groundwater discharges where possible. The methodology shows promise for field experiments designed to assess air–water exchange rates and to quantify total groundwater discharge from a combination of discrete and diffuse sources.

Deep groundwater

Climate, Hydrology, and Nutrients Control the Seasonality of Si Concentrations in Rivers

Abstract The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termedDSi regime, mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large‐scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

CRiSPPy: An advanced hydropower scheduling tool for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) plays a vital role in delivering reliable and cost-effective hydroelectric power to millions of customers across the western United States. The Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) carries out WAPA’s mission in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wyoming and Texas. Achieving this mission requires effective management of the Colorado River system, and depends on the use of advanced analytical tools and modeling methodologies. For many years, CRSP has relied on the Generation and Transmission Maximization Superlite (GTMax SL) model for its mid-term and long-term hydroscheduling needs. However, the evolving energy market, power system operations, environmental rules, and hydrology conditions, coupled with advancements in computational capabilities, have necessitated the development of a more modern and robust solution. This report introduces the Colorado River Storage Project Python-based (CRiSPPy) model, a new, advanced hydropower scheduling tool developed to address CRSP ever-evolving challenges. CRiSPPy represents a significant leap forward in our ability to model and optimize the operation of the Colorado River system. It incorporates state-of-the-art optimization algorithms, enhanced data management capabilities, and an advanced graphical user interface, providing WAPA CRSP personnel with unprecedented insights and decision-making support. This document details the development, capabilities, and implementation of CRiSPPy. It is intended to serve as a comprehensive resource for WAPA staff, stakeholders, and anyone interested in the future of hydropower scheduling in the Colorado River Basin. We are confident that CRiSPPy will enhance WAPA's mission while adapting to the challenges of a dynamic and increasingly complex environment. The version of CRiSPPy described in this report is the version 2.3. New versions of CRiSPPy will be developed as the tool keeps evolving to address CRSP challenges.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Wind River Experimental Forest Subcanopy Tower Information Sheet

Wind River was one of three sites that collected 3d sonic anemometer data for an ICOS subcanopy observation study. The three sites were defined by the following features and terrain: a deciduous broadleaf forest in flat terrain (Lanžhot, Czech Republic), a coniferous forest in mountainous terrain (Renon, Italy), and a tall conifer forest in mountain-valley terrain (Wind River, USA). The Wind River subcanopy towers were deployed in a high LAI, old-growth evergreen conifer forest and collected approximately 11 months of data. The site is an ecologically rich temperate rainforest in the western Cascade Mountains, and the biological carbon sink and source strength has been measured since 1998 using eddy covariance on the top of a 74 m tall flux tower (currently called the Wind River NEON tower). Additionally, forest inventory records date back to the 1920s. In 2024, four subcanopy towers were installed near the Wind River NEON tower to measure wind flow in the understory canopy layer for better understanding canopy flow coupling and decoupling in the subcanopy and how this affects the interpretation of overstory fluxes. The subcanopy tower installation was done by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Washington State University (WSU) with collaborations from the University of Utah and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Remote sensing of cloud distributions over the Bayanhar Mountains - Watershed of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

Although the two largest rivers in China originate in the same region separated only by the Bayanhar Mountains as a watershed, the Yangtze and Yellow rivers behave in quite different ways. Most of the warm and humid air currents from the Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal are blocked by the Bayanhar Mountains. As a result the amount of water in the Yellow River is only 5 percent of that in the Yangtze river. Based on the cloud coverage area and the cloud volumetric distributions, and also the thickness above 9.4 km of the cumulus clouds located north and south of the Bayanhar Mountains from the geosynchronous satellite infrared imagery, the results suggest that a more detailed investigation is warranted in the hope that the proper modification of cumuli north of the Bayanhar Mountains would enhance the rainfall over the fountainhead of the Yellow River.

Hung, R. J.

Geological remote sensing of Palaeogene rocks in the Wind River Basin, Wyoming, USA

Remote sensing studies of Palaeogene sediments in the Wind River Basin (Wyoming) were used for mapping stratigraphic units, sedimentary features and facies, and structural patterns. Thematic Mapper principal component images for the central and eastern Wind River Basin along with geological investigations and spectral analyses allowed: mapping of the Fort Union, Wind River, and Wagon Bed formations (Fm) and their subunits; recognition of two subunits in the Wind River Fm, one of which can be traced for 75 km; determination of sediment source and depositional environment of units within the Wind River Fm; correlation of the Wagon Bed Fm across the basin; and apparent confirmation of different sources of volcanic debris in the western and southeastern exposures of the Wagon Bed Fm.

Krishtalka, L.

Satellite remote sensing of water resources in the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers of China based on infrared imagery of cloud distributions

Although the two largest rivers in China originate in the same region, separated only by the Bayanhar Mountains as a watershed, the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers behave in quite different ways. Most of the warm and humid air currents from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are blocked by the Bayanhar Mountains. As a result, the amount of water in the Yellow River is only 5 percent of that in the Yangtze River. Based on the cloud coverage area and the cloud volumetric distributions, and also the thickness above 9.4 kms of the cumulus clouds located north and south of the Bayanhar Mountains, from GEO satellite IR imagery, the results suggest that a more detailed investigation is warranted in the hope that the proper modification of cumuli north of the Bayanhar Mountains would enhance the rainfall over the fountainhead of the Yellow River.

Hung, R. J.

The impact of global warming on river runoff

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

Miller, James R.